Miércoles 11/23/22 Ventas de casas nuevas

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Miércoles

Eventos económicos
Órdenes de bienes duraderos
Seguros de desempleo
PMI de manufactura
PMI de servicios
Sentimiento del consumidor
Expectativas de inflación a cinco años
Ventas de casas nuevas

Durable goods orders Oct. 0.5% 0.4%
8:30 am Core capital equipment orders Oct. -- -0.5%
8:30 am Initial jobless claims Nov. 19 225,000 222,000
8:30 am Continuing jobless claims Nov. 12 -- 1.51 million
9:45 am S&P U.S. manufacturing PMI (flash) Nov 50.0 50.4
9:45 am S&P U.S. services PMI (flash) Nov 48.0 47.8
10 am UMich consumer sentiment index (final) Nov. 54.9 54.7
10 am UMich 5-year inflation expectations (final) Nov. -- 3.0%
10 am New home sales (SAAR) Oct. 570,000 603,000
2 pm FOMC minutes

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LAST CHG %CHG
Crude Oil Futures 78.06 -2.89 -3.57
Brent Crude Futures 84.86 -2.84 -3.24
Gold Futures 1737.40 -2.50 -0.14
Silver Futures 21.225 0.176 0.84
DJIA Futures 34081 -45 -0.13
S&P 500 Futures 4007.50

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LAST CHG %CHG
DJIA 34176.34 78.24 0.23
S&P 500 4026.45 22.87 0.57
Nasdaq Composite 11296.02 121.61 1.09
Japan: Nikkei 225 28115.74 170.95 0.61
UK: FTSE 100 7464.92 12.08 0.16
Crude Oil Futures 77.42 -3.53 -4.36
Gold Futures 1744.20 4.30 0.25
Yen 139.77 -1.45 -1.03
Euro 1.0368

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El S&P 500 sube ligeramente mientras Wall Street espera minutos de la Reserva Federal

Carmen Reinicke

Sarah Min

VER AHORA

VIDEO03:56

Los mercados no verán una señal "balo todo claro" durante la primera mitad de 2023, dice Kevin Simpson

Las acciones de EE. UU. se mezclaron el miércoles, ya que los inversores miraban hacia adelante a las actas de la reunión de la Reserva Federal en busca de pistas sobre el ritmo de los futuros aumentos de las tasas de interés.

El promedio industrial Dow Jones cayó 3 puntos, o un 0,01 %. El S&P 500 ganó un 0,23 % y el Nasdaq Composite aumentó un 0,51 %.

Las acciones de Nordstrom cayeron más del 5 % después de que la cadena de grandes almacenes reafirmara su pronóstico. Sin embargo, Nordstrom superó las expectativas de ganancias y ventas en sus últimos resultados, según las expectativas de consenso sobre Refinitiv. Tesla subió más del 6 % después de que Citi actualizara las acciones a neutral de la venta. Deere aumentó casi un 7 % en un ritmo de ganancias.

Los datos de las reclamaciones por desempleo llegaron a 240 000 para la semana que terminó el 19 de noviembre, donde el economista esperaba 225.000, lo que indica que el mercado laboral puede estar debilis. Al mismo tiempo, sin embargo, los pedidos de productos duraderos para octubre fueron más fuertes de lo previsto, llegando al 1 %, más del 0,5 % esperado.

"En la interpretación del mercado, esto es positivo dado que la Reserva Federal quiere ver un reequilibrio en el mercado laboral mediante el cual las empresas comienzan a mantener un apalancamiento sobre la demanda de salarios más altos", dijo Quincy Krosby, estratega global jefe de LPL Financial. "Los salarios más altos se han transmitido constantemente a medida que los precios más altos conducen a un aumento de las presiones inflacionarias".

Los inversores están esperando las últimas actas de la reunión de la Reserva Federal, previstas para el miércoles por la tarde, para conocer el enfoque del banco central en materia de política monetaria antes de la reunión de diciembre.

A principios de noviembre, el banco central aprobó un cuarto aumento consecutivo de 0,75 puntos porcentuales que llevó las tasas a su nivel más alto desde 2008. Los economistas pronostican un aumento de medio punto porcentual en diciembre y aumentos de tasas más pequeños el próximo año.

Wall Street está saliendo de una sesión optimista, con el promedio industrial Dow Jones subiendo casi 400 puntos el martes mientras los comerciantes se acercaban de los temores de nuevos confinamientos en China y buscaban fuertes ganancias. El S&P 500 subió un 1,36%, cerrando por encima del nivel de 4.000 por primera vez desde septiembre. Mientras tanto, el Nasdaq Composite saltó un 1,36%.

Los mercados estarán cerrados el jueves por las vacaciones de Acción de Gracias y cerrarán temprano el viernes.

Corrección: Se corrigió una versión anterior de esta historia para reflejar que Nordstrom reafirmó su pronóstico.

HACE 8 MINUTOS

Volumen de operaciones delgado por delante de los minutos de la Reserva Federal

El volumen de negociación fue ligero el miércoles antes del lanzamiento de las actas de la reunión de la Reserva Federal, con el SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) operando solo 22,45 millones de acciones hasta las 11:58 a.m. ET. Al mediodía, el ETF opera un promedio de 30,08 millones de acciones, según los datos de FactSet.

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LAST CHG %CHG
DJIA 34189.01 90.91 0.27
S&P 500 4026.53 22.95 0.57
Nasdaq Composite 11289.03 114.62 1.03
Japan: Nikkei 225 28115.74 170.95 0.61
UK: FTSE 100 7465.24 12.40 0.17
Crude Oil Futures 77.44 -3.51 -4.34
Gold Futures 1752.50 12.60 0.72
Yen 139.44

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Fed officials see smaller rate hikes coming ‘soon,’ minutes show
PUBLISHED WED, NOV 23 20222:00 PM ESTUPDATED 22 MIN AGO
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Jeff Cox
@JEFF.COX.7528
@JEFFCOXCNBCCOM
Federal Reserve officials expect to switch to a smaller interest rate increases “soon,” according to minutes from the November meeting released Wednesday.
Some officials expressed concern over the impact rate increases could have on financial stability and the economy.
Markets have largely expected the Fed to dial down the intensity of its policy tightening, and the minutes helped confirm that.
Majority of Fed favors slowing pace of tightening soonWATCH NOW
VIDEO02:05
Majority of Fed favors slowing pace of tightening soon
Federal Reserve officials earlier this month agreed that smaller interest rate increases should happen soon as they evaluate the impact policy is having on the economy, meeting minutes released Wednesday indicated.

Reflecting statements that multiple officials have made over the past several weeks, the meeting summary pointed to small rate hikes coming. Markets widely expect the rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee to step down to a 0.5 percentage point increase in December, following four straight 0.75 percentage point hikes.

Though hinting that smaller moves were ahead, officials said they still see little signs of inflation abating. However, some committee members expressed concern about risks to the financial system should the Fed continue to press forward at the same aggressive pace.

“A substantial majority of participants judged that a slowing in the pace of increase would likely soon be appropriate,” the minutes stated. “The uncertain lags and magnitudes associated with the effects of monetary policy actions on economic activity and inflation were among the reasons cited regarding why such an assessment was important.”

The minutes noted that the smaller hikes would give policymakers a chance to evaluate the impact of the succession of rate hikes. The central bank’s next interest rate decision is Dec. 14.

The summary noted that a few members indicated that “slowing the pace of increase could reduce the risk of instability in the financial system.” Others said they’d like to wait to ease up on the pace. Officials said they see the balance of risks on the economy now skewed to the downside.

Focus on end rate, not just pace


Markets had been looking for clues about not only what the next rate hike might look like but also for how far policymakers think they’ll have to go next year to make satisfactory progress against inflation.

Officials at the meeting said it was just as important for the public to focus more on how far the Fed will go with rates rather “than the pace of further increases in the target range.” The minutes noted that the ultimate rate is probably higher than officials had previously thought.

In recent days, officials have spoken largely in unison about the need to keep up the inflation fight, while also indicating they can pull back on the level of rate hikes. That means a strong likelihood of a 0.5 percentage point increase in December, but still an uncertain course after that.

Markets expect a few more rate hikes in 2023, taking the funds rate to around 5%, and then possibly some reductions before next year ends.

The post-meeting statement from the rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee added a sentence that markets interpreted as a signal that the Fed will be doing smaller increases ahead. That sentence read, “In determining the pace of future increases in the target range, the Committee will take into account the cumulative tightening of monetary policy, the lags with which monetary policy affects economic activity and inflation, and economic and financial developments.“

Investors saw it as a nod to a reduced intensity of hikes following four straight 0.75 percentage point increases that took the Fed’s benchmark borrowing overnight borrowing rate to a range of 3.75-4%, the highest in 14 years.

When will the hikes end?

Several Fed officials have said in recent days that they anticipate a likely half-point move in December.

“They’re getting to a point where they don’t have to move so quickly. That’s helpful since they don’t know exactly how much tightening they’re going to have to do,” said Bill English, a former Fed official now with the Yale School of Management. “They emphasize policy works with lags, so it’s helpful to be able to go a little bit more slowly.“

Inflation data lately has been showing some encouraging signs while remaining well above the central bank’s 2% official target.

The consumer price index in October was up 7.7% from a year ago, the lowest reading since January. However, a measure the Fed follows more closely, the personal consumption expenditures price index excluding food and energy, showed a 5.1% annual rise in September, up 0.2 percentage points from August and the highest reading since March.

Those reports came out after the November Fed meeting. Several officials said they viewed the reports positively but will need to see more before they consider easing up on policy tightening.

The Fed has been the target lately of some criticism that it could be tightening too much. The worry is that policymakers are too focused on backward-looking data and missing signs that inflation is ebbing and growth is slowing.

However, English expects the Fed officials to keep their collective foot on the brake until there are clearer signals that prices are falling. He added that the Fed is willing to risk a slowing economy as it pursues its goal.

“They have risks in both directions if doing too little and doing too much. They’ve been fairly clear that they view the risks of inflation getting out of the box and the need to do a really big tightening as the biggest risk,” he said “It’s a hard time to be Jay Powell.”

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https://www.wsj.com/articles/fed-minute ... 32?mod=mhp

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https://www.wsj.com/articles/new-homes- ... 23?mod=mhp