Miercoles 14/12/11 Precio de los importadores y exportadores

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Bank Reserve Settlement


Miercoles

Eventos economicos

Solicitudes de hipotecas
Precios de los importadores y exportadores
Reporte del petroleo
Subasta de bonos

MBA Purchase Applications
7:00 AM ET


Import and Export Prices
8:30 AM ET


EIA Petroleum Status Report
10:30 AM ET


30-Yr Bond Auction
1:00 PM ET

[admin]

Y Alemania e Italia venden bonos.

[admin]

Treasurys Price Chg Yield %
2-Year Note -0/32 0.246
10-Year Note -3/32 1.982
* at close

9:05 p.m. EST 12/13/11Futures Last Change Settle
Crude Oil 99.88 -0.26 100.14
Gold 1638.9 -24.2 1663.1
E-mini Dow 11912 17 11895
E-mini S&P 500 1222.00 1.75 1220.25

9:14 p.m. EST 12/13/11Currencies Last (mid) Prior Day †
Japanese Yen (USD/JPY) 78.00 78.00
Euro (EUR/USD) 1.3029 1.3037
† Late Tuesday in New York.

[admin]

Copper December 13,20:59
Bid/Ask 3.4049 - 3.4069
Change -0.0279 -0.81%
Low/High 3.3900 - 3.4355
Charts

Nickel December 13,20:53
Bid/Ask 8.1632 - 8.2176
Change -0.0662 -0.80%
Low/High 8.1613 - 8.2489
Charts

Aluminum December 13,20:57
Bid/Ask 0.8914 - 0.8918
Change +0.0036 +0.41%
Low/High 0.8864 - 0.8926
Charts

Zinc December 13,20:59
Bid/Ask 0.8647 - 0.8662
Change -0.0020 -0.24%
Low/High 0.8611 - 0.8704
Charts

Lead December 13,20:59
Bid/Ask 0.9242 - 0.9278
Change -0.0024 -0.26%
Low/High 0.9242 - 0.9310

[admin]

Asia-Pacific
INDEX VALUE CHANGE % CHANGE TIME
NIKKEI 225 8,507.12 -45.69 -0.53% 20:43
HANG SENG INDEX 18,310.60 -136.57 -0.74% 20:48
S&P/ASX 200 INDEX 4,193.10 -0.30 -0.01% 21:03

[admin]

El Asia a la baja por segundo dia consecutivo.

El Hang Seng -0.16%, Australia -0.05%, el Nikkei -0.04%, el Shanghai C. -01.3%, Korea -0.18%

Los futures del Dow Jones 8 puntos al alza.

Yen up 77.98

Euro down 1.3024

[admin]

Yen down 78

Oil down 99.83, Au down 1,638

Los futures del Dow Jones 15 puntos al alza.

[admin]

La ultima informacion de la NASA indica que entre los anios 2000 y 2011 la atmosfera esta permitiendo que mas alta temperaturas salgan al espacio lo que los alarmistas modelos de computadora predicen. El estudio indica que menos calentamiento global ocurrira en el futuro que lo que predice las Naciones Unidas y sus modelos por computadora, es decir que la atmosfera atrapa menos carbond dioxide que lo que los alarmistas dicen.

El estudio contradice las multiples aseveraciones de los modelos por computadora alarmistas.



New NASA Data Blow Gaping Hole In Global Warming Alarmism
By James Taylor | Forbes – Wed, Jul 27, 2011

NASA satellite data from the years 2000 through 2011 show the Earth's atmosphere is allowing far more heat to be released into space than alarmist computer models have predicted, reports a new study in the peer-reviewed science journal Remote Sensing. The study indicates far less future global warming will occur than United Nations computer models have predicted, and supports prior studies indicating increases in atmospheric carbon dioxide trap far less heat than alarmists have claimed.

Study co-author Dr. Roy Spencer, a principal research scientist at the University of Alabama in Huntsville and U.S. Science Team Leader for the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer flying on NASA's Aqua satellite, reports that real-world data from NASA's Terra satellite contradict multiple assumptions fed into alarmist computer models.


"The satellite observations suggest there is much more energy lost to space during and after warming than the climate models show," Spencer said in a July 26 University of Alabama press release. "There is a huge discrepancy between the data and the forecasts that is especially big over the oceans."

In addition to finding that far less heat is being trapped than alarmist computer models have predicted, the NASA satellite data show the atmosphere begins shedding heat into space long before United Nations computer models predicted.

The new findings are extremely important and should dramatically alter the global warming debate.

Scientists on all sides of the global warming debate are in general agreement about how much heat is being directly trapped by human emissions of carbon dioxide (the answer is "not much"). However, the single most important issue in the global warming debate is whether carbon dioxide emissions will indirectly trap far more heat by causing large increases in atmospheric humidity and cirrus clouds. Alarmist computer models assume human carbon dioxide emissions indirectly cause substantial increases in atmospheric humidity and cirrus clouds (each of which are very effective at trapping heat), but real-world data have long shown that carbon dioxide emissions are not causing as much atmospheric humidity and cirrus clouds as the alarmist computer models have predicted.

The new NASA Terra satellite data are consistent with long-term NOAA and NASA data indicating atmospheric humidity and cirrus clouds are not increasing in the manner predicted by alarmist computer models. The Terra satellite data also support data collected by NASA's ERBS satellite showing far more longwave radiation (and thus, heat) escaped into space between 1985 and 1999 than alarmist computer models had predicted. Together, the NASA ERBS and Terra satellite data show that for 25 years and counting, carbon dioxide emissions have directly and indirectly trapped far less heat than alarmist computer models have predicted.

In short, the central premise of alarmist global warming theory is that carbon dioxide emissions should be directly and indirectly trapping a certain amount of heat in the earth's atmosphere and preventing it from escaping into space. Real-world measurements, however, show far less heat is being trapped in the earth's atmosphere than the alarmist computer models predict, and far more heat is escaping into space than the alarmist computer models predict.

When objective NASA satellite data, reported in a peer-reviewed scientific journal, show a "huge discrepancy" between alarmist climate models and real-world facts, climate scientists, the media and our elected officials would be wise to take notice. Whether or not they do so will tell us a great deal about how honest the purveyors of global warming alarmism truly are.

James M. Taylor is senior fellow for environment policy at The Heartland Institute and managing editor of Environment & Climate News.

[admin]

OPINIONDECEMBER 13, 2011
The Euro Zone's German Crisis
Blame Teutonic efficiency for what ails Europe. The other countries just can't compete.

By ALAN S. BLINDER

All financial eyes are fixed on the euro. Europe's common currency actually has two gigantic problems. The debt and banking crisis hogs all the attention because of its immediacy, plus the high drama of all those summit meetings. But the other, slower-acting problem—lopsided competitiveness within the euro zone—is far more intractable.

First, the immediate problem. The euro was an audacious venture that put the cart before many horses. The fundamental problem is that the euro zone is not a country. Initially 11, and now 17, sovereign nations signed up for a currency union without first homogenizing their budget policies, their tax systems, their bank regulations or much else. And they did so without creating a central government strong enough to, for example, impose cross-border discipline or finance large cross-country transfers. To use an American analogy recently promoted by Nobel laureate and New York University economist Thomas Sargent, the 17 have been trying to fix their debt and banking problems under the equivalent of the Articles of Confederation, not the Constitution.

The great pitcher Lefty Gomez once said he'd rather be lucky than good. In order to succeed in their audacious gamble, the euro-zone countries would have to be both. And for about a decade, they were. But luck has a way of running out. What economists antiseptically call "asymmetric shocks" are the Achilles' heel of a currency union—and they are bound to occur now and then. In plain English, if some countries do well (and/or pursue sound policies) while others do poorly (and/or pursue unsound policies), locking them into a single currency will squeeze some countries like an increasingly uncomfortable Procrustean bed. In this case, Procrustes claimed Greece first over the issue of sovereign debt. But it could have been something else and somewhere else.

Normally, a weak economy has three ways to fight back. It can loosen monetary policy, it can loosen fiscal policy, or it can let its currency depreciate. (If the currency is floating, the market will do this automatically.) But membership in the euro zone forecloses two of these escape hatches, leaving only fiscal policy. And once a member country stretches its borrowing capacity to the limit—as Greece did—that route is closed, too. Then what happens?

One answer is playing out now as a Greek tragedy: You have a depression. And if neither monetary stimulus, fiscal stimulus, nor currency depreciation is possible, when does this depression end? It may take quite a while. Real GDP in Greece is already down about 12% and still falling—which is why you've heard so much talk about Greece leaving the euro. Of course, what happened in Greece didn't stay in Greece. Markets started turning on the other wounded antelopes in the European herd: Portugal, Ireland, Spain, Italy and so on.

Enlarge Image

Chad Crowe
Europe continues to try to stave off disaster. In the latest summit agreement, reached last Friday, all 17 euro-zone countries, plus several others, pledged to pursue fiscal discipline—with tighter enforcement than previously. But that agreement is more about forestalling future crises than curing the present one. And fiscal austerity all over Europe, if it comes, will deepen the recession. So we hold our breath and await salvation from the European Central Bank (ECB) in the form of potentially massive bond purchases.

That's the easy problem. The euro-zone's other, barely mentioned but huge problem is competitiveness. It's far more basic and looks less solvable than the sovereign debt problem.

To see why, remember the two fundamental determinants of exchange rates: (1) productivity in different countries—so, other things equal, faster productivity growth should lead to a rising exchange rate; and (2) prices and wages in different countries—so lower inflation should lead to a rising exchange rate. Thus, for a currency union to succeed, its member nations need to register approximately equal productivity growth and approximately equal wage and price inflation.

How has the euro zone fared on this score? In principle, the ECB's common monetary policy should (approximately) equalize inflation rates across all the member countries. In practice, it hasn't. You won't be surprised to learn that, since the start of the euro, Germany has had the lowest rate of inflation among the major countries, followed closely by France. The highest inflation rates have been in Greece and Spain. While these inflation differentials are not gigantic, they are large enough to strain a system of fixed exchange rates.

The other part of the equation is worse. When it comes to productivity, Germany has simply pulled away from the pack. Partly because of thorough-going labor-market reforms in the last decade, and partly because it's, well, Germany, Europe's powerhouse economy has achieved vastly higher productivity growth than its euro partners. Since 2000, German unit labor costs have risen about 20%-30% less than unit labor costs in the other euro countries. That gap has left Germany with a large intra-Europe trade surplus while most other countries run deficits.

If we were talking about China, at this point we would accuse the Chinese of manipulating their currency to gain an "unfair" trade advantage. But, of course, Germany has not manipulated anything. It has acquired a seriously undervalued currency by locking into fixed exchange rates with Greece, Spain, Italy and the others.

There are three ways for the other countries to close the gap with Germany—and remember, the gap is large. First, Germany can volunteer for higher inflation than its euro partners by, for example, implementing a large fiscal stimulus or ending its wage restraint. How do you say "ain't gonna happen" in German?

Second, the other countries can engineer German-like productivity miracles through structural reforms while Germany, relatively speaking, stands still. Good luck with that. And even if it somehow happens, the timing is all wrong. Reforms take years to bear fruit while financial markets count time in seconds.

Third, the other countries can experience deflation, meaning a prolonged decline in both wages and prices, which is incredibly difficult and painful—and generally happens only in protracted recessions. Sadly, this may be the most likely way out.

Thus the euro zone has a big, visible Greek problem, which is a result of failure. But it also has a far bigger, though less visible, German problem, which is a result of success.

Wish them well.

Mr. Blinder, a professor of economics and public affairs at Princeton University, is a former vice chairman of the Federal Reserve.

[admin]

Asia-Pacific
INDEX VALUE CHANGE % CHANGE TIME
NIKKEI 225 8,506.71 -46.10 -0.54% 23:13
HANG SENG INDEX 18,413.80 -33.38 -0.18% 23:05
S&P/ASX 200 INDEX 4,194.00 0.60 0.01% 23:32

[admin]

8:01 a.m. EST 12/14/11Treasurys Price Chg Yield %
2-Year Note 1/32 0.234
10-Year Note 0/32 1.972
* at close

8:06 a.m. EST 12/14/11Futures Last Change Settle
Crude Oil 98.64 -1.50 100.14
Gold 1632.6 -30.5 1663.1
E-mini Dow 11884 -11 11895
E-mini S&P 500 1220.00 -0.25 1220.25

8:16 a.m. EST 12/14/11Currencies Last (mid) Prior Day †
Japanese Yen (USD/JPY) 78.07 78.00
Euro (EUR/USD) 1.2995 1.3037
† Late Tuesday in New York.

[admin]

Copper December 14,07:59
Bid/Ask 3.3367 - 3.3385
Change -0.0960 -2.80%
Low/High 3.3285 - 3.4355
Charts

Nickel December 14,07:58
Bid/Ask 8.0339 - 8.0434
Change -0.1955 -2.38%
Low/High 7.9794 - 8.2489
Charts

Aluminum December 14,07:59
Bid/Ask 0.8732 - 0.8741
Change -0.0145 -1.64%
Low/High 0.8701 - 0.8927
Charts

Zinc December 14,07:59
Bid/Ask 0.8450 - 0.8461
Change -0.0218 -2.51%
Low/High 0.8406 - 0.8704
Charts

Lead December 14,07:59
Bid/Ask 0.9074 - 0.9092
Change -0.0192 -2.07%
Low/High 0.9026 - 0.9315

[admin]

El euro cae debajo de 1.30, no lo hacia desde Enero.

El costo de Ia deuda de Italia sube.

Los futures del Dow Jones 16 puntos a la baja.

Oil down 98.52

Au down 1,633.20

-23

El oro sigue bajando.

[admin]

La produccion de fabricas de Europa baj0 0.1% en Octubre, la produccion subio 1.3%, la mas debil desde Diciembre del 2009. Van camino a la recesion.

[admin]

Europa a la baja, el Asia cero en rojo tambien.