Viernes 13/04/12 inflacion y confianza consumidor

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CPI inflacion
Confianza del consumidor

[Victor VE]

RT @alfatraders: PIB #CHINA en rojo 8.1% frente a esperado de 8.4%

Enviado desde mi LG-P990 usando Tapatalk

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Asia-Pacific
NIKKEI 225 9,670.66 +145.87
(1.53%) 21:35
HONG KONG HANG SENG INDEX 20,686.79 +359.46
(1.77%) 21:39
S&​P/​ASX 200 4,324.60 +43.96
(1.03%) 21:54
All Asia-Pacific Indexes

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Price: US$/lb 

Copper April 12,21:59
Bid/Ask 3.7361 - 3.7371
Change -0.0050 -0.13%
Low/High 3.7307 - 3.7464
Charts

Nickel April 12,21:58
Bid/Ask 8.3750 - 8.3831
Change -0.0295 -0.35%
Low/High 8.3609 - 8.4380
Charts

Aluminum April 12,21:57
Bid/Ask 0.9323 - 0.9338
Change +0.0000 +0.00%
Low/High 0.9322 - 0.9362
Charts

Zinc April 12,21:59
Bid/Ask 0.9180 - 0.9194
Change -0.0034 -0.37%
Low/High 0.9167 - 0.9224
Charts

Lead April 12,21:59
Bid/Ask 0.9472 - 0.9485
Change -0.0027 -0.29%
Low/High 0.9454 - 0.9516

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BREAKING NEWS
China's gross domestic product grew 8.1% in the first quarter from the same period a year earlier, expanding at its slowest pace since the first quarter of 2009.

Y los traders hablaban de un 9%

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El Shanghai C. al alza 0.03% a pesar de su mal PBI (GDP)

El Hang Seng +1.26%, el NIkkei +1.17%, Korea +0.72%, Australia +0.63%

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Euro down 1.3169

Yen down 80.96

Los futures del Dow Jones 29 puntos a la baja.

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PIB de China crece 8,1 pct en 1er trim, menos a 8,3 pct esperado
jueves 12 de abril de 2012 22:09 GYT
Imprimir[-] Texto [+] PEKIN (Reuters) - La economía de China creció un 8,1 por ciento interanual en el primer trimestre, menos a lo esperado y a su ritmo más débil en casi tres años, tras un avance del 8,9 por ciento en los tres meses anteriores, dijo el viernes la Oficina Nacional de Estadísticas.
Se trata del quinto trimestre consecutivo de desaceleración del Producto Interno Bruto chino y la cifra fue menor al crecimiento del 8,3 por ciento pronosticado por economistas consultados en un sondeo de Reuters.

(Reporte del Equipo Económico de Pekín. Editado en español por Patricio Abusleme)

[admin]

. Central Perú mantiene tasa, como esperaba mercado
jueves 12 de abril de 2012 20:01 GYT
Imprimir[-] Texto [+] LIMA (Reuters) - El Banco Central de Perú mantuvo el jueves su tasa clave de interés en un 4,25 por ciento como esperaba el mercado, debido a que las expectativas de inflación se mantenían ancladas y el ritmo de expansión de la economía permanecía "cerca a su crecimiento potencial".
Este es el undécimo mes que la autoridad monetaria mantiene su tasa de referencia estable en medio de una economía que crece a toda marcha y con tasas de inflación local impactadas por factores temporales de oferta.

"Las expectativas de inflación para el presente año se encuentran ancladas en el rango meta. El Directorio se encuentra atento a la proyección de la inflación y sus determinantes para considerar ajustes en los instrumentos de política monetaria", dijo el banco en un comunicado.

La inflación en marzo fue de un 0,77 por ciento, la mayor tasa mensual en ocho meses, con lo que superó lo previsto por el mercado y acumuló una inflación anualizada del 4,23 por ciento.

"Si bien se vienen registrando alzas en las cotizaciones internacionales de los combustibles y choques de oferta internos, se espera que el impacto de éstos en la inflación se revierta con mayor intensidad a mediados de año", afirmó la autoridad monetaria en un comunicado.

El Banco Central también informó que algunos indicadores adelantados de actividad muestran que el crecimiento de la economía "se ha estabilizado alrededor de su nivel sostenible a largo plazo", mientras que datos globales muestran que persiste la incertidumbre sobre la salud de la economía mundial.

"El hecho de que la inflación esté siendo afectada por factores de oferta no amerita respuestas de política monetaria", afirmó el analista Juan Carlos Odar, del Banco de Crédito.

"De otro lado, la economía mundial está mejor de lo que preveía anteriormente y en las condiciones actuales no se ve necesario un estímulo de política monetaria", agregó.

[admin]

Menor a lo esperado 8.1%, crecimiento seniala politicas expansivas

Este es el menor crecimiento en casi 3 anios, habia crecido 8.9% en el cuarto trimestre y ahora solo 8.1%, se esperaba el 8.4%.

La produccion industrial crecio 11.9%, las ventas retails crecieron 15.2%, los dos indicadores mejores a los esperados por los economistas.

China’s Less-Than-Forecast 8.1% Growth May Signal Easing
By Bloomberg News - Apr 12, 2012 10:12 PM ET

China’s growth slowed more than forecast last quarter as exports and domestic demand cooled, boosting pressure on Premier Wen Jiabao to loosen policy further and shore up expansion in the world’s second-biggest economy.

Gross domestic product expanded 8.1 percent from a year earlier, the least in almost three years, after an 8.9 percent gain in the fourth quarter, the National Bureau of Statistics said in Beijing today. The median estimate in a Bloomberg News survey of 41 economists was 8.4 percent. Industrial production rose at a faster pace in March while retail sales growth accelerated, the data showed.

An unexpected surge last month in new yuan loans reported yesterday shows the ruling Communist Party is trying to avoid a deeper growth slide this year amid a once-a-decade power transfer to younger leaders. A China slowdown may add to concerns that global expansion is losing steam after job gains in the U.S. lagged forecasts and Europe’s sovereign-debt crisis threatened to worsen.

“Policy makers will still be focused on stabilizing economic growth and avoiding an excessive downturn in the months ahead,” Shen Jianguang, chief Asia economist for Mizuho Securities Asia Ltd. in Hong Kong, said before today’s release. “They will have to rely on further policy measures to support the expansion.”

The Shanghai Composite Index (SHCOMP) pared gains following the report, rising 0.1 percent as of 10:07 a.m. local time after advancing as much as 0.5 percent.

Boosting Demand
The government may take steps to boost domestic demand through encouraging investment, and the central bank may lower banks’ required-reserves ratio this month, said Shen, who previously worked for the International Monetary Fund and European Central Bank. The economy may expand 8.4 percent in the second quarter, Shen said.

Data yesterday showed new yuan lending was the highest in a year and money-supply growth quickened in March. Local-currency- denominated loans were 1.01 trillion yuan ($160.1 billion) in March, the People’s Bank of China said, exceeding all 28 estimates in a Bloomberg News survey.

The benchmark Shanghai Composite Index of stocks has advanced 6.9 percent this year through yesterday, compared with 8.9 percent for the MSCI Asia Pacific Index.

Reduced Target
Wen in March pared this year’s economic-growth target to 7.5 percent, the lowest since 2004, as the government seeks to cut reliance on exports and capital spending and make expansion more sustainable.

At the same time, economists at Deutsche Bank AG, Nomura Holdings Inc. and Morgan Stanley last month raised their China growth forecasts for 2012 partly on anticipation of policy loosening.

Wen has said economic policies will be fine-tuned as needed even as he prolongs a campaign to curb property prices and speculation. During a visit to Fujian and Guangxi provinces April 1 to 3, the premier pledged to push ahead on key investment projects, accelerate export tax-rebate payments and ensure “reasonable” liquidity.

The government has also slowed gains in the yuan to help cushion exporters against sluggish demand from developed countries. The currency has weakened against the U.S. dollar by 0.2 percent this year after a 4.7 percent rise in 2011.

Factory Gains
Industrial production increased 11.9 percent in March from a year earlier, today’s statistics bureau report showed. That compared with an 11.6 percent median estimate in the Bloomberg News survey and an 11.4 percent gain in January and February combined.

Retail sales advanced 15.2 percent in March, the statistics bureau report showed, close to the median estimate of 15.1 percent. China’s passenger-car sales grew 4.5 percent in March, beating analyst estimates, as dealerships increased discounts to attract buyers amid record fuel prices, a separate report showed on April 11.

Fixed-asset investment excluding rural households rose 20.9 percent in the first quarter, compared with the 21 percent median estimate of economists.

“Growth may bottom out this quarter, assuming the global recovery improves and the domestic policy easing feeds into the economy,” Chang Jian, an economist with Barclays Capital in Hong Kong who previously worked for the World Bank, said before the release.

Reserve Ratios
China has lowered banks’ required-reserve ratio twice since November to boost liquidity and spur loan growth. At the same time, authorities have refrained from cutting interest rates amid inflation concerns.

The central bank may lower the ratio, currently 20.5 percent for large lenders, by another 100 basis points this quarter after two cuts since November, according to the median forecast in a Bloomberg survey last month. Seven out of 20 economists expect a cut in the benchmark lending rate, which has stood at 6.56 percent since the last increase in July.

Inflation, which rebounded to 3.6 percent last month, may stay below the government’s 4 percent target this year and “should not be the main hindrance for policy easing,” Ding Shuang, a Hong Kong-based economist at Citigroup Inc. who previously worked at the IMF, said before the release.

A moderating expansion could drag down growth in commodity- exporting nations including Australia, whose economy grew at half the pace economists forecast in the fourth quarter. It may also weigh on sales of foreign companies such as Bayerische Motoren Werke AG, the world’s largest luxury automaker, which delivered more cars in China than in the U.S. for the first time last quarter.

Zoomlion Heavy Industry Science & Technology Co., China’s biggest crane-maker, and Sany Group Co., owner of the nation’s largest construction-equipment maker, both said last month that their sales growth may slow this year as the economy decelerates.

--Zheng Lifei. With assistance from Li Yanping, Ailing Tan and Zhang Dingmin in Beijing. Editors: Scott Lanman, Nerys Avery

[admin]

El Asia contenta por que la prueba misil de Korea del Norte fue un fracaso.

[admin]

South Korea mantiene intereses. La economia de Singapore repunta.

[admin]

Como Obama no quiere que se construya el oleoducto entre Canada y US, ahora Canada le vendera el petroleo a China.

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BUSINESSUpdated April 12, 2012, 7:17 p.m. ET
With a $5 Billion Pipeline Project, Canada Looks to Bypass U.S. for Asia

By EDWARD WELSCH
CALGARY—Kinder Morgan Energy Partners LP KMP +1.11%said Thursday it will begin a $5 billion expansion of its Trans Mountain pipeline, nearly tripling the capacity of crude oil it can ship to Canada's west coast—the latest project aimed at moving the country's rising oil production to markets outside the U.S.

Currently, almost all Canadian crude exports travel to the U.S. While Canadian oil output has been climbing fast, pipeline capacity to move it from the country's biggest oil patch in landlocked Alberta to U.S. refining markets is stretched.

The resulting glut, and rising oil production in the U.S. itself, has depressed prices for Canadian crude. Canadian government officials, meanwhile, have boosted support for westward-flowing pipelines in order to diversify toward Asian markets. That effort accelerated after the White House earlier this year rejected a big pipeline-expansion project, TransCanada Corp.'s TRP +0.87%Keystone XL, which would have sent more Alberta crude south of the border.

The Trans Mountain line already ships a small amount of crude to Vancouver from Alberta. The expansion will increase that volume to 850,000 barrels a day from 300,000 barrels a day currently. The boost will allow Asian buyers to load Canadian crude in significant volumes in Vancouver and ship it across the Pacific in tankers. The project also envisions an expansion at the pipeline's terminal in Vancouver, which will allow more tankers to take on oil.

In 2011, just 1.65% of Canadian crude exports went to markets outside of the U.S., according to Canada's National Energy Board.

Houston-based Kinder Morgan said demand from customers for space on the line has been strong, triggering a decision to go ahead with the project. Customers have booked 660,000 barrels a day of shipment capacity on the proposed expanded line, said Ian Anderson, president of Kinder Morgan's Canadian division. The company had initially estimated the expansion would cost some $4 billion, but it raised the estimate after deciding to boost capacity.

Mr. Anderson said customers include Canadian oil producers, as well as international refiners and marketers, but he declined to disclose customer names. Kinder Morgan expects to file its application for the expansion with Canada's National Energy Board in later 2013 or early 2014. Construction would begin in late 2015 or early 2016, and oil would flow on the expanded line in early 2017, Mr. Anderson said.

The expansion is competing with other projects to bring Canadian oil to the west coast. Enbridge Inc. ENB +0.39%has proposed the Northern Gateway oil pipeline, which would take oil from Alberta to a small, northern port in British Columbia.

Enbridge's pipeline is expected to cost $5.5 billion and would also be completed in 2017. But that line faces strong resistance from native groups.

Because Kinder Morgan is expanding a pipeline across British Columbia that has been in place for 60 years, it may have an easier time gaining support from native groups, which have significant land claims in the province. The company will expand the line by "twinning" it—building a new pipeline alongside the current one.

Canadian oil executives have sought to open new markets for their crude, especially after the White House rejected the Keystone XL project. The pipeline became ensnared in a political battle in Washington, with environmental groups and many Democrats opposing the pipeline. Republicans embraced it as a way to bolster energy security and create jobs.

U.S. President Barack Obama has said he is open to reviewing Keystone XL again, if TransCanada reapplied for a permit. A decision wouldn't be made, though, before this year's presidential election. Late last month, the government of Canadian Prime Minister Stephen Harper said it would streamline regulatory reviews of big energy and mining projects meant to move resources to markets.Mr. Harper and other Canadian officials have said they want to open up new markets for Canada's resources in China and Asia, instead of relying on the U.S. as its biggest buyer.

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http://online.wsj.com/public/page/espanol-inicio.html

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JPM reporta a las 7 am, WFC reporta a las 8 am

Bernanke habla a la 1 pm

Dudley habla a las 8 am


Tomorrow’s Tape: JP Morgan, Wells Fargo Earnings

Earnings

J.P. Morgan reports first-quarter earnings at 7 a.m. Bank’s seen posting EPS of $1.13.

Wells Fargo reports at 8. EPS expected at 73 cents.

Economics

Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke speaks (1 p.m.) to the Russell Sage Foundation and The Century Foundation. The topic is “rethinking finance” and the central bank chieftain will take questions from the audience.

Consumer prices (8:30 a.m.) in March likely rose 0.3% from February, a hair below February’s 0.4% rate. The so-called core rate, however, is seen edging up to 0.2% from 0.1% in February.

Consumer sentiment (9:55 a.m.) seen at 76.2. This “final reading” of the Reuters/University of Michigan index is flat with the mid-month number. However, that would be the best level of the recovery.

New York Fed President William Dudley speaks (8 a.m.) to a business group in Buffalo, N.Y.