Viernes 13/08/10 CPI - inflacion, ventas retail

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Viernes

Eventos economicos

CPI - inflacion
Ventas retail
Sentimiento del consumidor
Inventarios de los negocios

Consumer Price Index
8:30 AM ET


Retail Sales
8:30 AM ET


Consumer Sentiment
9:55 AM ET


Business Inventories
10:00 AM ET

[admin]

El ID para la clase es 871-016-657

[admin]

Reporta utilidades J.C. Penney, se espera 5 cents de utilidades por accion y ventas de $4.02 billones.

Se espera que el CPI suba 0.3%, el core 0.1% Cifras importantes por el temor a la deflation.

Se espera que las ventas retail aumente 0.4% (mas vale) sin autos 0.3%

El sentimiento del consumidor se espera que suba a 69.8 (mas vale)

Se espera que los inventarios suban 0.2%

On Deck Friday: Reads on Retail and the Consumer

By Matt Phillips
Earnings:

J.C. Penney Co. — The retailer is expected to report of 5 cents on revenue of $4.02 billion.

Economics:

8:30 a.m. — The consumer price index for July is expected to rise 0.3%. The core number — which strips out food and energy prices — is expected to show a rise of 0.1%. This will be closely watched as deflation fears have taken hold in recent weeks.

8:30 a.m. — Retail sales for July are expected to rise 0.4%, with the ex-autos number rising 0.3%.

9:55 a.m. — The Reuters/University of Michigan consumer sentiment index for August is expected to arrive at 69.8.

10 a.m. — Manufacturing and trade inventories for June are expected to show a 0.2% rise.

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Data Points: U.S. Markets

[admin]

Price: US$/lb 

Copper August 12,22:01
Bid/Ask 3.2731 - 3.2777
Change -0.0068 -0.21%
Low/High 3.2641 - 3.2845
Charts

Nickel August 12,14:16
Bid/Ask 9.6721 - 9.7175
Change -0.0091 -0.09%
Low/High 9.6721 - 9.7265
Charts

Aluminum August 12,21:59
Bid/Ask 0.9499 - 0.9544
Change -0.0045 -0.48%
Low/High 0.9499 - 0.9590
Charts

Zinc August 12,22:01
Bid/Ask 0.9142 - 0.9188
Change +0.0000 +0.00%
Low/High 0.9119 - 0.9233
Charts

Lead August 12,21:37
Bid/Ask 0.9271 - 0.9316
Change -0.0091 -0.97%
Low/High 0.9248 - 0.9429
Charts

Uranium Aug 09, 2010
Ux U308 price: 46.50
Change from
previous week +0.50



London Metal Exchange Warehouse Stocks

[admin]

El Asia hasta el cien como es de esperar.

El Shanghai C. -0.05%, Hang Seng -0.33%, Korea +0.49%, el Nikkei +0.29%, Australia +0.37%

Yields up 2.74%

Los futures del Dow Jones 28 puntos al alza

Euro up 1.2839

[admin]

Los indicadores economicos positivos de maniana deben ayudar a que el Dow Jones reciba alfo de impulso.

El yen cae por segundo dia ante la especulacion de la intervencion del gobierno.

Se espera que el crecimiento de Hong Kong disminuya a 6.3% debido al enfriamiento en China.

[admin]

El yen cae a 86.14 frente al dolar.

[admin]

10:03 p.m. EDT 08/12/10Futures Last Change Settle
Crude Oil 76.20 0.46 0.00
Gold, Dec. 1216.5 -0.2 0.0
DJ Industrials 10280 9 10271
S&P 500 1082.60 3.40 1079.20

[Arnold]

PR Newswire and BusinessWire News

Ambac Financial Group Inc ABK:NYSE

Lear Announces Appointment of Henry Wallace as Non-Executive Chairman
PR Newswire
3:02 PM ET

Lear Corporation (NYSE: LEA) announced today that, as part of its ongoing review of its corporate governance practices, the Board of Directors has elected Henry D. G. Wallace as non-executive chairman of the Board of Directors, effective immediately. Robert E. Rossiter, Lear's current chairman, chief executive officer and president, will continue to serve as the Chief Executive Officer, President and as a director of Lear.

Henry has extensive automotive industry knowledge and experience. He worked at Ford Motor Company for 30 years until his retirement in 2001. At Ford, he held executive-level operations and financial oversight positions in North America, Europe, Latin America and Asia, including Group Vice President, Mazda and Asia-Pacific Operations and Chief Fin ancial Officer. Henry also serves as a director of AMBAC Financial Group, Inc., Diebold, Inc. and Hayes Lemmerz International, Inc. Henry has served on the Lear board since February 2005, and most recently has served as Lear's presiding Director.

"Henry is extremely well suited for this role and I look forward to continue working closely with him and the board going forward," said Bob Rossiter, Lear chief executive officer and president.

Mr. Wallace commented, "I am pleased and honored to be appointed as non-executive chairman. This will permit Bob Rossiter to dedicate all of his time maintaining the positive operating momentum of the Company and continuing to profitably grow Lear's business worldwide."

[admin]

Los fuutres del Dow Jones 37 puntos al alza.

[admin]

+39

[admin]

Sensible a la mala interpretacion

Cual deflation?

El CPI producira el primer incremento en cuatro meses cuando losa cifras de Julio sean reportadas el Viernes. Pero podria ser una resultado de alguna manera equivocada.

El Dpto. del trabajo dira que los precios al consumidor subieron 0.3% en Julio con respecto a Junio, y es el primer mes de alza desde Marzo, largamente un aumento en alimentos y energia.

Pero esos dos componentes son notablemente volatiles. Los precios del petroleo han caido cerca del 6% estemes, por ejemplo. Entre tanto la sequi en Rusia ha hecho aumentar el precio del trigo.

Mas importante aun, el core, que quita el precio de los alimentos y energia y predicen mejor la inflacion - tambien podrian mostrar un pequenio aumento en Julio.

A pesar de la persistente preocupacion por la deflation el indice ha subido todos los meses desde Enero.

Open to Misinterpretation: Inflation Data By KELLY EVANS.

What deflation?

The consumer-price index could post its first increase in four months when July figures are released on Friday. But it may be a somewhat misleading result.

.The Labor Department is expected to say consumer prices rose by about 0.3% in July from June, the first monthly gain since March, largely on an uptick in food and energy costs.

Yet those two components are notoriously volatile: Oil prices have dropped by about 6% so far this month, for example. Meanwhile, drought in Russia has caused the price of wheat to spike.

More important, the core index—which strips out food and energy to better gauge underlying inflation—also could post a small gain in July.

Despite persistent worries about deflation, the index actually has risen every month since January, including a 0.2% gain in June that was the largest since last October.

But even the core index has its issues.

Its behavior is partly a quirk of how housing costs, which make up about 40% of the core CPI, are calculated. Instead of using mortgage costs as a proxy for shelter costs, the Labor Department estimates what homeowners would pay to rent their house.

In other words, rent prices have a heavy hand in the CPI. And as homeownership has fallen out of favor lately in the U.S., rent prices could be set for a longer-term rally.

Already, research firm Reis Inc. has said that rents in the U.S. rose by 0.7% in the second quarter, the most in two years, and the apartment-vacancy rate slipped slightly.

With homeownership rates at their lowest level in a decade, Barclays Capital strategist Michael Pond says CPI shelter costs could post year-on-year gains of nearly 2% by year-end. That would put significant upward pressure on both the core and overall CPI, even amid anemic economic growth.

So investors should be careful how they interpret the CPI.

Consider that Goldman Sachs Group last week cut its forecast for growth in gross domestic product for 2011 while raising its estimate for year-end 2011 core CPI growth from zero to 0.5%.

CPI increases aren't necessarily broad-based inflation and certainly don't imply the economy is revving up.

[admin]

Juegue mas golf, Mr. President
Juegue todo lo que quiera, sir

Nosotros deseamos que Mr. Obama juegue mas golf. Siete dias a la semana. Imaginense como estaria de mejor el pais si Obama hiciera eso - que mas popular seria - si se hubieran tomados las protestas publicas contra el seguro de salud el verano pasado?

Cuanto mas Obama y su esposa practican gold, menos tiempo tendran para pasar mas estimulos, regular mas a las industrias o aumentar mas impuestos. La economia se recuperaria mas rapido con menos intervencion del gobierno.

Asi que Sr. juegue mas, practique sus tiros, mejore su juego. Despues mire como el GDP (PBI) aumenta y su popularidad tambien.


Swing Away, Mr. President
Golf all you want, sir

One of the more puzzling conservative and, increasingly, mainstream media critiques of President Obama is that he plays too hard, or too much, or something.

The same cable TV and talk-radio hosts who don't seem to work on Fridays in the summer object that Mr. Obama has played golf 44 times as President, more often even than that notorious weekend warrior, George W. Bush. The latest alleged outrage is that the President indulged his inner teenager too heartily on his birthday weekend when Michelle was in Majorca, hooping it up with NBA stars and perhaps even sneaking in a cigar or two in between mulligans on the links.

We can see why media snarks with nothing else to say would stoop to this line, but what's up with the right? The objection always sounded petty and partisan when liberals threw it at Mr. Bush, and it sounds no more persuasive when leveled against a liberal President. One of the more useful conservative insights is that life shouldn't be ruled by politics, and that is no less true merely because we live in a 24/7 cable TV news cycle.

We wish Mr. Obama played more golf. Seven days a week, in fact. Imagine how much better off America would be—and how much more popular the President would be—had he taken the rising public protests against ObamaCare last summer as an opening to drop the subject and work on his handicap?

The more Mr. Obama and his White House team practice their putting strokes, the less time they'd have to pass more stimulus, overregulate more industries, or raise more taxes. The economy would recover more rapidly with less political handling.

So by all means, swing away, Mr. President. Work on that jump shot, polish your short game, practice your fly cast mending. Then watch GDP and your approval ratings rise.

[admin]

Alemania es el motor de Europa. Sin embargo, da risa que tanta felicidad cause el magro 1% de crecimiento en Europa. China crece 11.1%, desacelera a 9% o 10% y es el fin del mundo.

----------------------------

La economia de la zona euro crecio a su ritmo mas acelerado en cuatro anios en el segundo trimestre gracias al sorpresivo crecimiento proveniente de Alemania.

El crecimiento combinado de la zona crecio 1%, este es el mayor crecimiento desde el segundo trimestre del 2006. Los economistas esperaban 0.7%.

Alemania crecio 2.2% y es el mayor crecimiento desde 1990, Francia crecio 0.6%
Germany Drives Euro-Zone Economic Growth

By NICHOLAS WINNING
LONDON—The euro-zone economy grew at its fastest pace in four years in the second quarter, driven by an unexpectedly strong surge in Germany, preliminary data showed Friday.

The combined gross domestic product of the 16 countries that use the euro grew 1.0% compared with the first three months of the year, the strongest quarterly expansion since the second quarter of 2006, the European Union's Eurostat statistics agency said.

.GDP, which measures the total value of goods and services in the economy, was also 1.7% higher than in the second quarter of 2009, the sharpest annual increase since the first three months of 2008.

The figures were much stronger than economists' estimates in a Dow Jones Newswires survey last week for growth of 0.7% on a quarter-to-quarter basis and 1.4% on the year. The euro zone grew 0.2% on the quarter and 0.6% on the year in the first quarter.

The quarterly growth rate was marginally weaker than the 1.1% expansion in the U.K. in the second quarter, but outpaced the U.S., where GDP grew 0.6%, Eurostat said.

"No components are available yet, but exports, investments and a catching up of the construction sector after a harsh winter should have been the main growth drivers," Carsten Brzeski, an economist at ING, said in a note. "Today's numbers are a clear sign that the euro zone has coped with the sovereign-debt crisis better than expected."

Eurostat figures released Thursday showed industrial production, which has been boosted by exports from Germany and elsewhere, rose 2.5% for the second consecutive quarter between April and June. The revival in the sector has also fueled restocking as companies geared up production after stocks ran down during the recession.

Strong demand from around the world for Germany's exports helped Europe's largest economy grow 2.2% between April and June—the fastest quarterly rate since reunification in 1990 and far stronger than economists' expectations of a 1.4% expansion.

Rainer Brüderle, Germany's Economy Minister, said the new data for the first half of the year "bring growth of well over 2% in 2010 into the realm of the possible." So far the government has been forecasting growth of 1.5% for 2010.

France's economy, the second biggest in the euro zone, grew 0.6% on the quarter—slightly stronger than forecasts of 0.4% growth. French Finance Minister Christine Lagarde said she is "convinced" France will meet its target of 1.4% GDP growth for 2010.

However, economists warn that the euro zone's second-quarter expansion has been fueled by temporary factors, such as a rebound in construction in Germany and restocking.

Concerns that growth may be slowing in the U.S. and China have also fueled fears that euro-zone exports, particularly from Germany, will suffer. Economists say growth is likely to slow in the latter half of the year as stimulus measures run their course and governments cut spending to reduce their budget deficits.

"The quarter-on-quarter growth rate in [the second quarter] is unlikely to be sustained in the second half of the year," said Ken Wattret, chief euro-zone market economist at BNP Paribas. "Our feeling is that 2011 growth will be significantly weaker than 2010."

European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet said last week that the euro-zone economy would be "much less buoyant" in the second half of the year than in the second quarter, although the third quarter could be stronger than was originally anticipated.

—Geoffrey T. Smith in Frankfurt and William Horobin in Paris contributed to this article.

[admin]

La banca Irlandesa pone nerviosos a los inversionistas nuevamente debido a sus masivas perdidas, la deuda de asegurar la deuda soberana de ese pais sube nuevamente a niveles de la crisis financiera en ese continente.