Lunes 10/01/11, Alcoa, CPI, beige book, ventas retail

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Eventos economicos

Lunes

Subasta de bonos

Entre los mas importantes de la semana tenemos el indice de optimismo de los pequenios negocios y comercio de mayoristas el Martes, los precios de los importadores y exportadores y el beige bok del Fed el Miercoles, el comercio internacional, y el PPI el Jueves, el CPI (inflacion), las ventas retail, la produccion industrial, el sentimiento del consumidor y los inventarios de los negocios el Viernes.

4-Week Bill Announcement
11:00 AM ET


3-Month Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET


6-Month Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET


NFIB Small Business Optimism Index
7:30 AM ET


ICSC-Goldman Store Sales
7:45 AM ET


Redbook
8:55 AM ET


Wholesale Trade
10:00 AM ET


4-Week Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET


52-Week Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET


3-Yr Note Auction
1:00 PM ET


Bank Reserve Settlement


MBA Purchase Applications
7:00 AM ET


Import and Export Prices
8:30 AM ET


EIA Petroleum Status Report
10:30 AM ET


10-Yr Note Auction
1:00 PM ET


Beige Book
2:00 PM ET


Treasury Budget
2:00 PM ET

Weekly Bill Settlement

52-Week Bill Settlement


International Trade
8:30 AM ET


Producer Price Index
8:30 AM ET


Jobless Claims
8:30 AM ET


EIA Natural Gas Report
10:30 AM ET


3-Month Bill Announcement
11:00 AM ET


6-Month Bill Announcement
11:00 AM ET


10-Yr TIPS Announcement
11:00 AM ET


30-Yr Bond Auction
1:00 PM ET


Fed Balance Sheet
4:30 PM ET


Money Supply
4:30 PM ET


Consumer Price Index
8:30 AM ET


Retail Sales
8:30 AM ET


Industrial Production
9:15 AM ET


Consumer Sentiment
9:55 AM ET


Business Inventories
10:00 AM ET

Equity Settlement

[admin]

Intel y JPM reportan el Jueves y el Viernes respectivamente.

[admin]

Las ventas retail posiblemente aumentaron por sexto mes consecutivo debido a que los consumidores se unen a la recuperacion economica.

Se proyecta un aumento de ventas del 0.8%. Tambien la produccion industrial habria avanzado mientras la inflacion permanecio muda.

Retail Sales Probably Rose for Sixth Month as Consumers Join U.S. Recovery
By Timothy R. Homan - Jan 9, 2011 12:00 AM ET

Retail sales probably climbed for a sixth month in December, a sign consumers are contributing more to the U.S. expansion even as the labor market struggles to accelerate, economists said before a report this week.

The projected 0.8 percent gain in purchases would match the previous month’s increase, according to the median of 58 estimates in a Bloomberg News survey ahead of Commerce Department figures Jan. 14. Other reports may show industrial production advanced, while inflation remained muted.

Generating stronger demand at retailers such as Gap Inc. and Target Corp. may require bigger job gains. An unemployment rate that’s exceeded 9 percent for 20 straight months remains a concern of Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke and his fellow policy makers.

“When you combine improving economic fundamentals with a large amount of pent-up demand, that points to ongoing strength in retail sales,” said Robert Dye, a senior economist at PNC Financial Services Group Inc. in Pittsburgh. “We would need stronger job growth” for consumers to “lead the economy,” he said.

Consumer spending, which accounts for about 70 percent of the economy, has picked up. Holiday purchases rose 5.5 percent, the best performance since 2005, said MasterCard Advisors’ SpendingPulse, which measures retail sales by all payment forms. That compared with a 4.1 percent gain a year earlier. The numbers include Internet sales and exclude automobile purchases.

Northeast Snow

Some retailers’ sales fell short of analysts’ projections last month as a blizzard the day after Christmas kept shoppers from stores, overshadowing earlier holiday buying.

A Dec. 26 storm that dumped more than 12 inches (30 centimeters) of snow on parts of the Northeast “disrupted” post-holiday shopping, Macy’s Inc. Chief Executive Officer Terry Lundgren said in a statement. The day after Christmas is typically one of the busiest shopping days of the year.

Sales at stores open more than a year at Gap, the largest U.S. apparel retailer, declined 3 percent, compared with the 2.4 percent average increase indicated by analyst estimates compiled by Retail Metrics Inc. Macy’s, Target and American Eagle Outfitters Inc. also trailed projections.

Retailers may benefit from a rise in consumer confidence. The Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan preliminary sentiment index rose this month to the highest level since June, according to the survey median before the Jan. 14 report. The optimism may reflect in part stock market gains and President Barack Obama’s deal with Republican leaders to keep tax rates from rising this year.

Retailer Shares

Investors are driving up retailer shares as spending picks up. The Standard & Poor’s Supercomposite Retailing Index has gained 30 percent since June 30, 2010, compared with a 23 percent advance for the broader S&P 500.

Production at factories, mines and utilities rose 0.5 percent last month, the most since July, according to the survey median before the Fed’s report on Jan. 14. Carmakers decreased output by 6 percent in November, even as demand climbed, indicating production may have rebounded a month later.

Auto sales in December reached a 12.53 million annual pace, the highest since the government’s so-called cash-for-clunkers incentive program in August 2009, according to industry data.

Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke last week reiterated the central bank will buy an additional $600 billion of Treasuries through June in an effort to trim joblessness and avert deflation, or an extended drop in prices.

Bernanke Testimony

“In a situation in which unemployment is high and expected to remain so and inflation is unusually low,” the Federal Open Market Committee “would normally respond by reducing its target for the federal funds rate,” Bernanke said Jan. 7 during testimony before lawmakers in Washington.

Instead, with the rate close to zero since December 2008, the Fed is buying securities in an effort to keep market borrowing costs low, he said.

Consumer prices advanced 0.4 percent in December after rising 0.1 percent the previous month, according to the Bloomberg survey median ahead of a Labor Department report Jan. 14. Excluding food and fuel costs, core prices were up 0.1 percent for a second month.

A report from the Commerce Department on Jan. 13 may show the trade deficit in the U.S. widened to $40.9 billion in November after falling to a nine-month low the prior month, according to the survey median.

The price of goods imported into the U.S. probably climbed 1.2 percent last month, compared with a 1.3 percent rise in November, economists said ahead of Jan. 12 figures from the Labor Department.

[admin]

Para mi el gobernador de New Yersey deberia lanzar su candidatura a la presidencia de US. Nadie le ganaria.

Christie recortara los gastos de Medicaid y recortara los beneficios de sus trabajadores para ayudar a cerrar el deficit de $10.5 del estado de New Jersey, mientras contribuye en $512 millones a las pensiones del estado (que no tienen suficientes fondos para pagarlas)

Otros 28 gobernadores republicanos le han pedido a Obama y al congreso permiso para reducir los pagos de Medicaid.

New Jersey tiene deficits por decadas. El deficit de todos los estados superara los $140 billones.

Christie Targets Medicaid to Close $10.5 Billion New Jersey Budget Deficit
By Terrence Dopp - Jan 9, 2011 12:00 AM ET
New Jersey Governor Chris Christie may propose cutting Medicaid spending and employee benefits to help close a $10.5 billion budget deficit, even as he considers contributing $512 million to the state’s underfunded pension.

The 48-year-old chief executive, who joined 28 other Republican governors asking President Barack Obama and congressional leaders last week for permission to reduce Medicaid outlays below federally prescribed levels, said in a Jan. 4 interview that “certainly” the program “is one of the things we’re going to have to look at.”

The second-wealthiest U.S. state budgeted $3.1 billion for Medicaid in the fiscal year ending June 30 and was scheduled to receive $1.1 billion in federal stimulus funding, according to the Treasury Department. Christie, who took office a year ago, said he’ll tell lawmakers in his Jan. 11 State of the State speech that New Jersey remains in a financial crisis and they need to maintain fiscal controls as employment and revenue recover slowly from the longest recession since the 1930s.

New Jersey has run consecutive annual deficits for a decade. The governor told reporters last month that balancing the next budget will be even tougher than with the current plan.

“First and foremost is continuing on the path of fiscal discipline,” Christie said in his wood-paneled office at the state Capitol in Trenton. “I’m not going to allow us to revert back to the wild spending that we’ve had for the last decade. It’s going to take years for us to dig out of this hole.”

Deficits Nationwide

States face deficits that may reach $140 billion in the next fiscal year, according to the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities in Washington. The 2009 economic-stimulus bill and the health-care overhaul signed by Obama last year bar governors from reducing eligibility for the state-administered health-care program for the poor and uninsured below a prescribed income level.

From New York to Washington, governors are targeting Medicaid for cuts. New York’s new governor, Democrat Andrew Cuomo, said he wants to lower spending $2.1 billion, the Wall Street Journal reported. Rick Scott, the recently elected Republican governor of Florida, said he is looking to trim the program by $1.8 billion.

Big Hole

Christie may face a deficit next year equivalent to more than a third of his current budget, the nonpartisan Office of Legislative Services projected in July. In the current year, he closed a record $10.7 billion gap by slashing school and municipal aid and skipping a $3 billion pension payment.

The governor didn’t specify how much he may take out of Medicaid. He said he anticipates seeking to trim costs through unspecified efficiencies, after leaving spending on the program intact last year because of the economic slump.

New Jersey will also lose $900 million in federal funding for Medicaid next year, even as it’s required to maintain benefits, under conditions of the stimulus act, according to Michael Drewniak, Christie’s spokesman.

“That’s a big hole to have to fill,” Christie said. “We’re going to have to look at all options. We have to figure out how we’re going to deal with that.”

Contract Talks

Christie said in the interview he’ll also seek savings in contract talks with state workers’ unions later this year, especially since the Jan. 1 expiration of a no-layoff agreement instituted by his predecessor, Democrat Jon Corzine. He declined to provide details. Christie said he’d prefer to make moves through negotiations with unions, not executive order.

“I think collective bargaining is an important process and I want to participate in it fully with the workers of this state so they feel whatever deal they end up getting is a fair deal,” Christie said. “If I have to resort to other tactics, I will, because I have to balance this budget.”

While he wants to cut Medicaid and worker benefits, Christie said he may resume contributions to the state’s pension system for the first time since 2008, when Corzine made a partial payment of $1 billion. The fund had assets to cover 62 percent of its obligations as of June 30, down from 66 percent a year earlier, according to Treasury Department data.

New Jersey’s pension deficit increased $8.05 billion, or 18 percent, this year to $53.9 billion, from $45.8 billion as of June 2009. The state has failed to make actuarially recommended contributions since 2003, according to bond documents. The funding shortage was $28.3 billion in 2007.

Benefits Overhaul

Christie said the pension deficit would have grown this year even if he made the $3 billion recommended payment. He said his ability to make a $512 million contribution next fiscal year will depend on the state’s financial condition.

“There’s a benefit problem,” Christie said. “We need to get at the benefits and we need to get realistic with folks and tell them the truth: promises were made that can’t be kept. We need to go after the drivers of these costs.”

In September, Christie proposed undoing a 9 percent pension increase enacted in 2001, raising the retirement age and freezing cost-of-living raises for retirees. The governor said he will push the Democratic-led Legislature to pass a measure requiring require employees to contribute 8.5 percent of salaries toward pensions, up from 5.5 percent now.

As the economic recovery took hold, the state collected 3.8 percent more revenue in the first five months of the fiscal year than projected as income taxes ran almost 13 percent above estimates, Treasurer Andrew Sidamon-Eristoff said on Dec. 14.

Work Remains

The increase may not herald the end of lean times for the state, Christie and Sidamon-Eristoff said. It may be a one-time infusion as high-income filers avoided potentially higher rates that were averted when Congress approved an extension of the Bush-era tax cuts.

“Imposing fiscal discipline is not a one-year fix,” Christie said.

During his first year in office Christie enacted a 2 percent cap on the growth of New Jersey’s property taxes, which at an average of $7,281 are the highest in the U.S. He also placed a threshold on school superintendents’ pay and limited at 2 percent raises given to police and firefighters by arbitrators when contact negotiations break down.

Getting the economy moving, as well as calls for austerity and job creation, also will dominate the speech, Christie said. The governor will also push a proposal to make it easier for school districts to fire their worst teachers and base pay on student performance.

Christie needs to get lawmakers to approve the remaining items in his “toolkit” of measures designed to help schools and municipalities stay within the new cap, which took effect this year, said Brigid Harrison, a professor of law and politics at Montclair State University. The proposals would cap contract awards and curb payouts for unused sick-leave and vacation days.

“It’s the difference between his being able to achieve political success and just being another politician with promises to lower property taxes,” she said.

[admin]

El apoyo de China a N Korea esta ayudando a que la relacion entre Japon y S Korea se haga mas estrecha, poniendo a un costado decadas de desconfianza y rivalidad economica entre los dos paises.

S Korea dide que 176,000 soldados Koreanos fueron forzados por los Japoneses a trabajar como soldados, obreros y esclavos sexuales durante la ocupacion Japones entre 1910 y 1945.

China's Support for Kim Jong Il Drives Japan, South Korea to Bolster Ties
By Bomi Lim and Sachiko Sakamaki - Jan 9, 2011 10:01 AM ET
China’s military buildup and failure to condemn North Korean aggression are helping Japan and South Korea overcome their economic rivalry and a decades-long legacy of distrust to pursue closer military ties.

Japanese Defense Minister Toshimi Kitazawa and his South Korean counterpart Kim Kwan Jin hold talks in Seoul today, the first in almost two years. Each country sent observers to the other’s military drills with the U.S. for the first time last year, following attacks by Kim Jong Il’s regime that killed 50 South Koreans.

The threat from North Korea may blunt opposition in the south driven by animosity toward Japan for its 1910-1945 occupation of the Korean peninsula. Closer ties between Asia’s two most developed exporters and main U.S. allies may also irk China, which bridles at America’s presence in a region where it wants to exert greater influence.

“China surely won’t approve of this, not to mention the strong opposition from South Koreans who still have bad feelings against Japan,” said Choi Jong Kun, a professor of political science and international studies at Yonsei University in Seoul. “The military relationship between South Korea and Japan still has a lot of hurdles to overcome.”

Kitazawa on Jan. 5 said he wants to discuss with Kim an agreement to share military goods and services, which Japan already has with the U.S. and Australia. South Korea’s Ministry of National Defense said that while no agreements will be signed, the meeting will “provide an opportunity to strengthen military ties to a higher level.”

Legacy of Occupation

South Korea says 176,000 of its citizens were drafted by Japan as soldiers, labor workers and sex slaves during the occupation. Japan’s Prime Minister Naoto Kan in August offered “deep remorse” for the annexation, which South Korean President Lee Myung Bak called “a step forward,” while noting there were still issues to be resolved, including victims compensation.

Japan and South Korea are also industrial rivals. While South Korea’s gross domestic product remains about a sixth of Japan’s, its economy has outperformed that of its neighbor in every quarter bar one for the past 10 years. Korea’s benchmark Kospi Index quadrupled in that period. Japan’s Nikkei 225 Share Index fell by about a quarter.

Suwon, South Korea-based Samsung Electronics Co. overtook Sony Corp., based in Tokyo, as the world’s largest maker of flat-panel televisions in the past decade, and is now the most- profitable company in the two countries. Hyundai Heavy Industries Co., based in Ulsan, helped South Korea take Japan’s place as the world’s biggest shipbuilding nation.

U.S. Urging

The U.S. is urging South Korea and Japan to boost military cooperation after North Korea on Nov. 23 shelled Yeonpyeong Island, killing four people. The U.S. and Japan also backed an international report that found a North Korean torpedo sank one of the South’s warships in March, killing 46 sailors.

Admiral Mike Mullen, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, said on Dec. 8 in Seoul that he hopes U.S. military exercises with South Korea will include Japanese participation to “cement our unified position on the threat posed by North Korea.”

China, North Korea’s biggest ally, refused to condemn either attack and criticized the Japan-U.S. drills in December as an obstacle to easing regional tension.

“Some are playing with knives and guns while China is criticized for calling for dialogue, is that fair?” Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Jiang Yu said on Dec. 2.

Credit Market Concerns

The cost of insuring Japanese and South Korea government debt jumped after the shelling. South Korea’s five-year credit default swaps rose 17 percent on Nov. 23, the biggest one-day gain in two years, data compiled by Bloomberg show. Japan’s CDS gained 27 percent in the six days following the attack.

“It’s important for the U.S., South Korea and Japan to cooperate more closely at a time when the Korean peninsula is increasingly unstable,” said Tsuneo Watanabe, a senior fellow at the Tokyo Foundation think-tank. “Japan-South Korean accords are vital for smooth operations among the three countries.”

Today’s talks coincide with U.S. Defense Secretary Robert Gates’ visit to China to mend military ties cut off a year ago after the U.S. announced a $6.4 billion arms sale to Taiwan.

Gates two days ago said Chinese military development has “the potential to put some of our capabilities at risk,” adding that the Asian country may be developing a stealth fighter more quickly than the U.S. had believed. It marked the second time in a week a Pentagon official had said the U.S. may have underestimated the speed of China’s weapons development.

Japan last month said it would shift the focus of its national defense toward China in a report that criticized a “lack of transparency” in Chinese military spending.

“South Korea’s rising global profile has helped it overcome its minority complex toward Japan,” said Dong Yong Sueng, a fellow on economic security at the Samsung Economic Research Institute in Seoul. “The current geopolitical situation serves as a good opportunity for them to overcome their history.”

To contact the reporters on this story: Bomi Lim in Seoul at blim30@bloomberg.net; Sachiko Sakamaki in Tokyo at Ssakamaki1@bloomberg.net

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Peter Hirschberg in Hong Kong at phirschberg@bloomberg.net
.

[admin]

BP recortara su produccion de petroleo en Australia en 95%

Duke Energy esta cerca a comprar Progress Energy por $13 billones.

Verizon podria agregar entre 9 y 12 millones mas de ventas del iPhone.

[admin]

Senador McCain se compromete a impulsar TLC de Colombia con EEUU
sábado 8 de nero de 2011 19:04 GYT
Imprimir[-] Texto [+] CARTAGENA, Colombia (Reuters) - El senador estadounidense y ex candidato presidencial del Partido Republicano, John McCain, se comprometió el sábado a impulsar ante el Congreso de su país una nueva extensión de las preferencias arancelarias y un acuerdo comercial con Colombia.
McCain y el también senador John Barrasso se reunieron en este puerto del caribe con el presidente de Colombia, Juan Manuel Santos.

"La ratificación del Tratado de Libre Comercio es una deuda larga del Congreso de los Estados Unidos", dijo McCain a periodistas al terminó de su encuentro con Santos.

Colombia y Estados Unidos concluyeron en el 2006 la negociación de un Tratado de Libre Comercio que continúa pendiente de su ratificación en el Congreso estadounidense, en donde los demócratas se resisten a aprobarlo por la violencia que se registra en el país sudamericano contra sindicalistas y defensores de derechos humanos.

"La ratificación o la conclusión como tal del Tratado de Libre Comercio con Corea del Sur, dará una oportunidad para la ratificación de los dos tratados, tanto como con Colombia, como con Panamá", sostuvo McCain refiriéndose al futuro del acuerdo comercial.

McCain dijo que el primer desafío en el Congreso será la extensión de las preferencias arancelarias de que gozan algunos países andinos como retribución a su lucha contra el narcotráfico.

A finales de diciembre el Congreso de Estados Unidos aprobó una prórroga por seis semanas del programa de preferencias arancelarias para los países andinos (ATPDEA, por sus siglas en ingles).

"La extensión de las preferencias arancelarias andinas un asunto de gran importancia y nuestro primer reto será apuntar a una extensión mayor", afirmó McCain.

Santos agradeció el compromiso de los dos congresistas estadounidenses con Colombia e hizo votos por el éxito de sus gestiones.

"Se han comprometido con ayudarnos en la extensión de las preferencias arancelarias y en el Tratado de Libre Comercio. Estamos en muy buenas manos y le agradecemos a los dos de todo corazón", declaró el mandatario colombiano.
Santos reconoció que McCain y Barrosso fueron claves en la aprobación de la prórroga de las preferencias arancelarias andinas.

"Esperamos que puedan ser exitosos en ayudarnos en que esto se extienda, porque esa extensión es una necesidad, sobre todo en estos momentos en que estamos viviendo un drama tan complicado con las inundaciones y la tragedia humanitaria que estamos viviendo", afirmó el presidente de Colombia.

Estados Unidos es el principal socio comercial de Colombia y el primer destino de sus exportaciones.

[admin]

SPANISHJANUARY 9, 2011, 1:42 P.M. ET
Comisión de crisis de la UE visitará España y Portugal

MADRID (EFE Dow Jones)—Una delegación de nueve eurodiputados de la Comisión Especial sobre Crisis Financiera, Económica y Social del Parlamento Europeo visitará Madrid el próximo jueves para analizar la situación de la economía española y elaborar un informe que posteriormente será votado en el pleno de la Eurocámara.

Fuentes de la oficina en España del parlamento europeo dijeron que previamente y con el mismo objetivo, la delegación estará en Portugal para elaborar un informe parecido con propuestas económicas que también será votado en la cámara.

El objetivo de la comisión es evaluar el alcance de la crisis financiera, económica y social, su impacto en la Unión Europea y en sus Estados miembros, y proponer medidas adecuadas para reconstruir a largo plazo unos mercados financieros sanos y estables, que permitan apoyar un crecimiento duradero y el empleo.

Según un comunicado, en la visitas también sopesarán la aplicación hasta la fecha de la legislación comunitaria en todos los ámbitos afectados, junto con la coordinación de las acciones emprendidas por los Estados miembros.

Durante la visita a España, la delegación se reunirá con miembros de las comisiones de asuntos europeos, de presupuestos y de economía y fiscalidad en el Congreso de los Diputados.

Además, está previsto que los eurodiputados se entrevisten en el Ministerio de Economía y Hacienda con el secretario general de Política Económica y Economía Internacional, Ángel Torres, y posteriormente, en el Banco de España, con la directora de su departamento de coyuntura y previsión económica, Eloísa Ortega.

En la misma jornada de trabajo, la delegación se reunirá, entre otros, con los secretarios generales de los dos grandes sindicatos españoles y con las patronales.

[admin]

El dolar podria seguir subiendo esta semana si los datos economicos continuan viniendo positivos. Ultimamente la economia Americana ha presentado datos robustos que contrastan con Europa.

El dolar va a seer king en el primer trimestre, Los inversioinistas estan vendiendo euros y comprando dolares.

Ya estamos viendo al dinero institucional salir del euro para entrar al dolar.

El euro podria caer a 1.27 y despues a 1.25.

El dolar tambien debe subir frente al yen.




FOREIGN EXCHANGEJANUARY 9, 2011, 1:49 P.M. ET
Dollar Poised for More Gains
By BRADLEY DAVIS

NEW YORK—The dollar should shine this week if U.S. data paint a picture of a U.S. economy that continues to brighten.

The U.S. has distinguished itself with a recent spate of strong data, which contrasts with flare-ups in the smoldering euro-zone sovereign-debt crisis.

Even after Friday's disappointing U.S. employment report, the dollar surged, with the euro dropping well below the $1.30 mark to its lowest level in four months.

"Investors are shedding euros right now for the dollar," said Greg Salvaggio, vice president of capital markets at Tempus Consulting in Washington. "The [U.S.] growth outlook is significantly better than it is within the euro zone."

"The dollar is going to be king" of the first quarter of 2011, he said.

On Thursday, European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet is to address reporters after the bank announces what analysts expect will be a steady-on approach to policy.

Mr. Trichet is typically reticent about making anything beyond well-trod comments on a commitment to keeping inflation pressures in check, but markets can be volatile in the wake of his remarks. If Mr. Trichet expresses particular vigilance toward fighting inflation, even though euro-zone growth is flagging, the euro could see a temporary spike, Mr. Salvaggio said, because investors could read that as a signal of an upcoming interest-rate increase.

But any relief is likely to quickly fade, he said.

"We're starting to see some big institutional money moving out" of pro-euro positions, Mr. Salvaggio said, meaning momentum could soon take the common currency dramatically lower, with a drop below $1.18 not out of the question, he said. The euro in June hit $1.1917, its weakest level in more than four years, as the sovereign-debt crisis raged.

While a move that drastic is not likely in the near-term—or, some analysts would suggest, at all—the common currency still could drop to $1.27, and then to $1.25, if investors become convinced the euro's recent fall is becoming entrenched, said Robert Tull, vice president and managing director of foreign exchange and commodity derivatives at Fifth Third Bancorp in Cincinnati.

"We had some very strategic plays by some long-term folks when the euro was really unable to make a clear breach over $1.40" in early November, Mr. Tull said. "That set a tone to be long dollar, short euro."

A short is a bet that a currency will decline in value; a long is a bet a currency will rise.

Key U.S. data this week could push more investors into the pro-dollar camp, with readings for retail sales, consumer prices and industrial production all due Friday. Rosier U.S. data should also boost the dollar against the yen.

"The situation in Japan is becoming worse on a daily basis," Mr. Salvaggio said. As U.S. data swiftly outpaces that in Japan, "look for the yen to start to weaken," he said. A test of 85 yen in the near-term is not out of the question, analysts said.

By late Friday, the euro fetched $1.2910, from $1.3015 Thursday. The dollar eased to 83.04 yen from 83.31 yen.

Write to Bradley Davis at bradley.davis@dowjones.com

[admin]

Irak ha aumentado su produccion de petroleo en 300,000 a 2.7 millones de barriles diarios.

Irak quiere aumentar su produccion a 12 millones diarios en 10 anios.

[admin]

Hablando de petroleo, BP y las demas productoras de petroleo en Alaska han sido forzadas a cerrar. A menos que se repare la linea de petroleo pronto el petroleo va a subir ya que una buena parte de su produccion va a US. Analistas especulan que podria irse a $100.

[admin]

La congresista Gifford mejora, dicen los medicos. Un juez federal fue asesinado entre otros, ya alli el acusado enfrenta pena de muerte por el atentado.

Los jueces estan acostumbrados a andar con guardaespaldas ya que reciben constantes amenazas de muerte.

[admin]

Copper January 09,20:19
Bid/Ask 4.2913 - 4.2947
Change +0.0277 +0.65%
Low/High 4.2561 - 4.3020
Charts

Nickel January 09,20:15
Bid/Ask 10.9491 - 10.9918
Change -0.0159 -0.14%
Low/High 10.9015 - 11.0376
Charts

Aluminum January 09,20:15
Bid/Ask 1.1164 - 1.1177
Change +0.0019 +0.17%
Low/High 1.1109 - 1.1191
Charts

Zinc January 09,20:19
Bid/Ask 1.0909 - 1.0918
Change -0.0009 -0.08%
Low/High 1.0899 - 1.1076
Charts

Lead January 07,14:18
Bid/Ask 1.2100 - 1.2145
Change +0.0029 +0.24%
Low/High 1.2070 - 1.2145

[admin]

Euro up 1.2895

El Shanghai C.-0.11#, Australia -0.1%, Korea -0.06%, el Nikkei +0.11%, el Hang Seng -0.42%

Oil up 89.63, Au up 1,371.1

Los futures del Dow Jones 5 puntos a la baja.

[admin]

De nuevo Europa

El miedo por la deuda Europea, su banca aumenta.

El nuevo anio comienza de manera muy dificil en Europa los estrategas esperan mas problemas con la deuda de ese continente mientras los paises se preparan para prestarse mas dinero.

El euro cayo 3.4% la semana pasada contra el dolar y esta ahora en sus niveles mas bajos desde Setiembre. Frente al franco Suizo ha bajado aun mas.

La emision de deuda, los yields de los bonos de los paises problematicos estan tocando nuevos maximos, poniendo mas presion sobre sus finanzas.

Una area de preocupacion es la banca Europea, los precios de las acciones siguen bajando y los intereses que tienen que pagar estan aumentado. El problema es que tienen una alta exposicion a la deuda soberana de ese continente.

Esta semana el centro de atencion seran los paises que van a vender deuda como Grecia, Espania, Portugal e Italia.

Tambien hay nerviosismo por que se teme que la banca Eurpea empeore.

Los bancos espanioles tienen que pagar intereses altisimos para poder financiarse.

El euro podria seguir bajando.


Fears Mount Over European Debt, Banks
By TOM LAURICELLA
The new year is off to a rough start for Europe, and strategists expect more trouble ahead as European governments prepare to tap the bond markets to borrow money.

The euro fell 3.4% last week against the U.S. dollar and is now at its lowest level since September. Against currencies from countries with healthier economies and fiscal positions, such as Switzerland, the damage to the euro has been even worse.

Meanwhile, bond yields on debt issued by struggling European countries are at or near new highs, heightening the pressure on their finances.

An area of concern is European banks. Share prices are sliding and in some cases the cost of borrowing money is rising. Because European banks hold hefty quantities of European Union government debt, they have long been seen as vulnerable to contagion from the sovereign-debt crisis.

But in the wake of Ireland's bailout, which was essentially forced by the government's need to shore up banks struggling with bad real-estate loans, more market watchers are citing bank credit problems as a potential flash point.

Fuel was thrown on that fire last week by the circulation of an EU proposal in which holders of senior debt issued by banks would share the cost of future bank bailouts.

The Euro Stoxx Banks index fell almost 1% last week and is down 3% over the past month. That may not seem like much of a loss, but the KBW Bank Index, which tracks U.S. banks, has gained roughly 11% in the same time frame.

The overriding concern remains the ability of struggling European countries to borrow money, and this week could be a preview of what is to come in 2011 for European bond markets. Greece is set to sell €1.5 billion ($1.94 billion) of short-term debt on Tuesday, and Portugal will sell as much as €1.25 billion in government bonds Wednesday, followed by Spanish and Italian bond sales Thursday.

Last week, Portugal was able to attract solid investor interest in €500 million of six-month bills, but at a yield that was roughly 1.6 percentage points higher than the last six-month auction in September.

Going into this period of heavy issuance, yields on debt from weaker euro-zone nations have been pushing higher compared with yields on benchmark German issues. Portuguese 10-year notes are yielding 4.07 percentage points above comparable German debt, which is yielding roughly 2.86%. That spread is up from 3.45 percentage points just one week ago and 2.86 percentage points in early December, according to Tradeweb.

Belgium's 10-year notes finished last week yielding 1.23 percentage points above German bonds, up from 0.99 percentage point a week ago.

For the euro, this has translated into renewed declines after a pop in the final weeks of 2010. Against the U.S. dollar, the euro fell below $1.30 Friday, marking a drop of nearly 9% since early November. But the euro is still well above its low of $1.1917 hit last June.

The common currency's weakness has been more pronounced against currencies backed by stronger economies and fiscal outlooks. Against the Swiss franc and the Australian dollar, the euro has hit all-time lows in the past month and just last week sank to a record low against the Swedish krona.

Investors are nervous in part because they believe European governments will continue to respond slowly to the crisis and worry that elected officials will be under intense pressure to avoid further bailouts. That is especially true in Germany, where the Greek bailout was deeply unpopular and a series of crucial state elections will be kicking off in late February.

There is also nervousness that problems at European banks may get worse. "We're facing a banking crisis [in Europe] that runs the risk of overwhelming the public-sector finances," says Carl Weinberg, chief economist at High Frequency Economics in Valhalla, N.Y. Analysts at J.P. Morgan Chase wrote last week that across the continent banks appear to be finding it harder to attract investors to unsecured debt, which is backed only by banks' creditworthiness.

Instead, banks have been issuing more so-called covered bonds, which are usually secured by a pool of mortgages. Last week, 56% of the €32 billion issued in bank debt was in covered bonds, a "high percentage," J.P. Morgan says. "In periods of funding stress, banks find it easier to issue covered bonds," the analysts wrote.

They noted that two major Spanish banks, Banco Santander SA and Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria SA, still had to pay a premium to investors on their covered bonds. "It's becoming harder and more costly for even the biggest Spanish banks to refinance their debt," J.P. Morgan wrote.

All this uncertainty is adding up to an environment where the euro is expected to face continued downward pressure. For non-European investors, that makes stepping up and buying European debt extra risky. Not only might they lose money on falling bond prices, but declines in the euro would magnify those losses.

David Woo, head of global rates and currencies research at Bank of America Merrill Lynch, says inaction by European governments could lead to a big decline in the euro. "If Europe doesn't do anything to pre-empt the crisis, the euro will have to fall all the more in order to make the euro zone attractive to investors," says Mr. Woo, adding that it could fall well below its 2010 low near $1.19 and even hit $1.10.

But, he adds, at that level bond buyers would view the cheap currency as a boon to the European economy and could actually step up and buy the bonds. "At $1.10, all their problems will go away…A lot of investors will be prepared to buy euro-zone peripheral debt, and they'll be eating the U.S. and China's lunch, dinner and breakfast from an economic competitiveness standpoint."