Miercoles 29/02/12, PMI Chicago, Beige book del Fed

[admin]

Crecimiento de moderado a modesto.

Bienes raices residencial mejoro, el gasto del consumidor fue positivo, la manufactura esta fuerte. Crecimiento en los 12 distritos.

El mercado laboral tambien mejoro en todos los distritos. Los empleadores tienen problema para encontrar mano de obra calificada.

ECONOMYFEBRUARY 29, 2012, 2:09 P.M. ET.Fed Sees Modest Growth


By JEFFREY SPARSHOTT And ERIC MORATH
The U.S. economy grew at a "modest to moderate" pace in January and early February, the Federal Reserve said in a report released Wednesday, suggesting that momentum from a slow but steady recovery carried over from the end of last year.

Separately, the U.S. economy grew faster than initially thought as the recovery picked up steam in the during the final quarter of last year.

The Fed in its latest beige-book report, based on anecdotes collected from business contacts and economists spread across the nation, said economic activity generally expanded throughout its 12 districts, underpinned by a stronger manufacturing sector, positive consumer spending and a "somewhat" improved residential real-estate market.

"Hiring increased slightly across several Districts, and contacts in a variety of industries faced difficulties finding skilled workers," the Fed report said.

Despite some improvement in the labor market, there appears to be little pressure on wages, while prices for most goods were relatively stable, the Fed report said.

The Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis prepared the economic snapshot based on information collected on or before Feb. 17. The beige book will be used for discussions at the Fed's next policy-setting meeting on March 13.

In January, Fed officials said they expected to keep short-term interest rates close to zero through late 2014, an easy-money policy aimed at helping to spur spending and investment. The central bank hasn't ruled out a third round of bond-buying as part of its efforts to support the economy, though there appears to be no clear consensus for swift additional action.

Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke, in remarks to House lawmakers earlier Wednesday, said the central bank is prepared to adjust its balance sheet "as appropriate to promote a stronger economic recovery in the context of price stability."

Mr. Bernanke has been particularly vexed by high and long-term unemployment.

The beige book found a slight improvement in the jobs market, with Boston, New York, Cleveland, Richmond, St. Louis, and Minneapolis reporting increased hiring in manufacturing, while contacts in Philadelphia and Kansas City anticipate future hiring in the sector. Auto dealers in Philadelphia, Kansas City and Dallas districts also were hiring.

Durable-goods manufacturing--such as the auto industry in the Richmond, Atlanta, St. Louis and Minneapolis districts; and fabricated metal in Richmond, Kansas City and Dallas--appeared particularly strong.

"Manufacturing contacts in the Boston, Philadelphia, and Cleveland Districts expressed concern about the risks posed by the situation in Europe," the Fed report said.

The Fed would have more latitude to act if inflation remains muted. The beige book found stable prices, "although contacts in some Districts anticipate passing rising input prices through to consumer prices."

Economic Growth Revised Up
Gross domestic product, the broadest measure of all the goods and services produced in the economy, grew at an inflation-adjusted annual rate of 3.0% in the October to December period, the Commerce Department said Wednesday. The second estimate of fourth quarter 2011 GDP was stronger than the advance estimate of 2.8% and the best improvement since the second quarter of 2010.

The U.S. economy grew faster than initially thought, an inflation-adjusted annual rate of 3.0% in the fourth quarter, as the recovery picked up steam at the end of last year, Kathleen Madigan reports on The Markets Hub. Photo: Reuters.
.Economists surveyed by Dow Jones Newswires expected a revised figure of 2.7%. Revised measures for consumer spending and commercial construction helped drive the improvement. Shoppers opened their wallets as the unemployment rate began to edge down from highs seen earlier in the year. Consumer spending grew 2.1% in the fourth quarter, according to the revised data, the best growth in three quarters. Commerce initially reported that spending rose 2.0%.

Related Video

Investors give their views on the economy here and abroad and explain how they're preparing for the unexpected. Dow Jones Wealth Adviser's Veronica Dagher reports.
..Spending on services was stronger than initially thought, particularly on cell phones plans, Commerce said. Spending on services overall rose 0.7% in the quarter, up from an initial reading of 0.2%. Spending on commercial construction decreased less than initially reported. Overall, nonresidential fixed investment--which also includes equipment and software--grew 2.8% last quarter, compared to the first reading of 1.7% growth.

A major driver of GDP growth was businesses restocking in hopes of meeting renewed demand. Commerce revised down its estimate of private inventories. The economy grew last quarter even as governments trimmed budgets. Spending by federal, state and local governments declined 4.4% in the final three months of 2011, compare to a first reading of down 4.6%.

The pace of the recovery has led Federal Reserve officials to debate whether additional stimulus is warranted. Most Fed officials expect the economy will grow between 2.2% and 2.7% in 2012, according to January projections.

If price increases stay in check, that could give the central bank more leeway to pursue such moves.

The core inflation rate--which excludes volatile moves in food and energy prices and is closely watched by the Fed--increased 1.3% in the fourth quarter from the prior period. That was revised up from an initial estimate of 1.1%.

The overall price index for personal consumption expenditures increased by 1.2% in the fourth quarter, compared to the previously reported 0.7% gain.

Similarly, the price index for gross domestic purchases, which measures prices paid by U.S. residents, was revised to 1.1% from 0.8%.

[admin]

Portugal necesita la suerte de Irlanda

http://online.wsj.com/public/page/espanol-inicio.html

[jonibol]

Hubo una cascada de ventas inmensas de los bonos americanos cuando estaba hablando Bernanke que desencadeno la venta de los commodities como el oro, la plata y el petroleo. Los traders especularon que fueron ventas causadas por algoritmos. Tambien afecto al euro.

-9.46

Yo creo que fueron las máquinas. Una caída así son de épocas de crisis.

[admin]

Bernanke dijo que el Volker Rule no estaria listo para Julio. Esa nueva ley no les permitira a los bancos de inversion a hacer trading en sus propias cuentas.

[admin]

Bernanke dijo que el codigo de impuestos de US es inconsistente.

[admin]

Riesgos geopoliticos empujarian al oro al alza.


Search MarketBeat1
. February 29, 2012, 1:29 PM.Gold Bug Alert: Geopolitical Risks Could Push Prices Higher

By Liam Pleven

Say the words “geopolitical risk,” and most people these days will start pondering the possibility that oil prices could spike if tensions keep rising over Iran’s nuclear program. But investors in gold and a host of industrial metals should be alert to the reality that crude isn’t the only commodity whose supplies could be constrained in an unpredictable world.

“The geopolitical risk is not as obvious” for base metals, a group that includes materials such as copper, nickel, and lead, Barclays Capital analyst Gayle Berry wrote in a note Wednesday. But, she added, recently “the landscape has been littered with examples of shifting political goal posts in countries of significance for the metals and mining industry.”

And the risk isn’t confined to global hot spots where there’s a risk of armed conflict. Among the examples Ms. Berry cited were recent Indonesian moves to restrict raw ore exports and proposals in the Philippines to change its mining laws and review existing contracts. Chile, South Africa and Australia – not exactly the Axis of Evil – have all raised taxes on the industry, she said.

While Ms. Berry focused on base metals, gold miners also often operate in tricky political climates. An anonymous mining company executive was quoted in the annual Fraser Institute survey of mining companies, released this month, as saying the following: “It would appear that taxes and royalties will continue to be increased or considered by governments to be increased over the next two years. This will have a slight negative impact on foreign investment in new and emerging gold producing countries like Burkina Faso that do not yet have a long track record of companies with solid returns on their foreign investment.”

So far, Ms. Berry wrote, political issues “are not having much bearing on short-term fundamentals and prices” – unlike oil markets, where prices have climbed sharply this year, largely due to Iran-related concerns.

But the issues amount to “another hurdle to supply growth in an industry already grappling with technical challenges, soaring costs and stricter environmental regulations,” she wrote. Not exactly bearish for metal prices, in other words.

[Victor VE]

Cementos Pacasmayo CPACASC1 INDUSTRIALES 6.29 28/02/2012 6.27 5.95 6.01 6.17 539,209 17 -5.10 S/. 3,219,717

Se fue al diablo.

[admin]

Fueron posiciones muy grandes las que se vendieron hoy dia. Empezo con la venta de los treasurys.

Los traders especularon que fueron algoritmos que siguen al mercado de renta fija (bonos) Podria haber sido tambien un rebalanceo de portafolios bien grande. (asset allocation)

MARKETSFEBRUARY 29, 2012, 2:23 P.M. ET.Huge Treasurys Futures Trade Roils Markets

By JACOB BUNGE
A cascade of large trades rolled through the Treasury futures market Wednesday morning, sparking debate among traders as to whether the selling was an error or an investor selling out of a big position.

About 80,000 June-dated futures on the 10-year Treasury note were sold over a two-minute period beginning at 10:05 New York time, alongside about 47,000 "classic" bond futures and 52,000 contracts on the five-year note, according to traders.

Heavy selling separately hit silver and gold futures and the effect quickly spilled into currency markets, in what some traders speculated was trading triggered by algorithms monitoring fixed-income markets.

The trades came just as Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke began to speak in Washington, with the central banker's initial remarks seen as upbeat on the U.S. economic recovery before he outlined significant challenges that remain.

""It's very possible it was a fat finger, but it seems more like a very big asset allocation," said one interest-rate futures trader in Chicago.

Supporting that view, Treasurys yields have remained elevated. Some traders speculated that the selling was touched off by an algorithm that interpreted Mr. Bernanke's initial remarks as a hawkish signal for monetary policy, prompting the strategy to begin dumping Treasury futures.

"There had been some expectations built in that he was going discuss [a third round of quantitative easing] … and it did not happen," said Andres De Lasa, managing director and senior government bond trader at Pierpont Securities.

The impact of the trading echoed across several different markets. The benchmark 10-year Treasury note's yield spiked from 1.94% right before Mr. Bernanke's comments hit the tape to as high as 2.01%. But in recent trade, the yield had eased back, trading 0.05 percentage point higher at 1.977%, pushing down the price by 15/32 as bond yields and prices move oppositely.

The euro and the Australian dollar were both pushed lower amid heavy trading around the time of the incident. The euro traded as low as $1.3345 and the Aussie went to $1.0756, and both currencies continued to be heavily offered more than an hour

[admin]

-26.98

[admin]

He mandado dos mensajes privados, hoy dia, a ver si me contestan.

[El_Diez]

Parece que esta vez los Osos si la hacen ,…

[admin]

Eruo down 1.3336

Inglaterra dijo tambien, no mas politica monetaria expansiva.

-30.39

[El_Diez]

He mandado dos mensajes privados, hoy dia, a ver si me contestan.

¿ …....?

[admin]

A fin de anio tendremos dos alzas de impuestos, el del payroll (ingresos) y la expiracion de los recortes de impuestos de Bush. Bernanke advirtio hoy dia al respecto.

[admin]

No a ti Diego, me imagino que no los han leido por eso lo estoy poniendo en el foro.