por admin » Mié May 23, 2012 2:16 pm
Los manager de fondos de bonos mas grandes estan muy preocupados por la posible salida de Grecia.
Algunos managers de portafolios estan vendiendo la deuda de los paises del sur de Europa, otros estan comprando bonos de US y Alemania, otros estan haciendo shorts a los bonos de Grecia, apostando a que perderan valor.
Algunos lo vienen haciendo por los ultimos seis meses como Bill Gross de Pimco que esta comprando treasuries.
La salida de los depositos de los bancos en una verdadera preocupacion.
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Bond Funds Prepare for the Worst Out of Greece
By KIRSTEN GRIND And MIN ZENG
The world's biggest bond mutual funds are scrambling to protect their portfolios from a possible exit of Greece from the euro zone.
Some portfolio managers are dumping debt of southern European countries, while others are piling into safer U.S. and German issues. Still others are "short-selling" Greek bonds in a bet they will lose value.
Taken together, the moves—some of them months in the making—show the extent to which professional investors are worried the Greek crisis will roil markets across the Continent and around the world.
Bill Gross, founder and co-chief investment officer of $1.8 trillion Pacific Investment Management Co., a unit of Allianz SE, ALV.XE -2.14%said he has bulked up on U.S. Treasurys over the past six months in the company's flagship Total Return Fund.
Meanwhile, Stephen Walsh, the chief investment officer for Western Asset Management Co., a unit of Legg Mason Inc. LM +0.08%with $47 billion in assets, said the firm reduced its exposure to European banks by a percentage point to 1.7% in March from a month earlier. Jamie Stuttard, fixed-income portfolio manager at Fidelity Investments, which has $1.6 trillion in global assets under management, said the firm's portfolios have been avoiding debt-strapped euro-zone nations such as Greece, Portugal and Spain over the past year.
U.S. and German bond markets are benefiting from the uncertainty. The 10-year U.S. Treasury's yield, which moves in the opposite direction of the price, stood at 1.8% on Tuesday, down from 2% a month earlier, while Spanish government-bond yields rose to 6.13% on Tuesday from 5.88% a month earlier.
Mr. Gross, manager of $259 billion Pimco Total Return, the world's largest bond fund, is among the most aggressive Treasury buyers, jacking up his Treasury holdings to 31% of the portfolio at the end of April from 19% at the end of October.
The U.S. "is not pristine," said Mr. Gross, "but it appears to be the best of a number of bad choices."
The possibility that Greek will exit the common currency has emerged over the past year, but fears were heightened following a May 6 election that failed to produce a coalition government. A new election is set for June 17. Some investors worry the new government will reject major spending cuts—a key stipulation for Greece to continue receiving bailout money from the European Union.
Meanwhile, depositors in Greece's banks have been withdrawing money. While that outflow hasn't yet turned into a full-blown bank panic, Greek President Karolos Papoulias on May 15 described the country's banks as "very weak."
Some fund managers are planning for a worst-case scenario. If Greece were to exit the euro zone, the damage could spread across the continent, said Mr. Gross. "It's like a fuse that's lit. Greece may be a little firecracker, but it has the potential to set off a much larger explosion."
John Stopford, London-based co-head of fixed-income at Investec Asset Management, which manages $100 billion in global assets, has been buying the U.S. dollar and selling the euro and the Australian dollar over the past few weeks as a way to hedge the risk of a breakup in the euro zone. He forecasts financial markets will be volatile after the June Greek elections, but said European policy makers may be prompted to put out measures to avoid a Greece departure in the short term given the consequences on global markets and economy.
Mr. Walsh, of Western Asset, said the company is unlikely to move back into the bonds of European banks soon, although he is stacking up risk in other places—high-yield or "junk" bonds in the U.S. and emerging-market bonds.
Generally, fund managers have steered clear of the euro zone since last summer, the last time fears on the euro zone heightened. Instead they are padding their portfolios with lower-yielding, safer investments.
Craig Veysey, head of fixed income at Principal Investment Management Ltd., part of the South Africa-based Sanlam Group with $71.2 billion in assets, also has been snatching up Treasury bonds as a way to insulate his portfolio from the risk of financial fallout. Mr. Veysey said he expects Greece to leave the common currency.
"This situation is not sustainable in the future," Mr. Veysey said. "It is more likely that the future fiscal union would not include weak countries such as Greece and Portugal."
Other managers are taking a different tack and short-selling, or betting against, some European government bonds.
Michael Cirami, a global fixed-income portfolio manager at Eaton Vance Corp., EV -1.78%which holds $198 billion in assets, has short positions on France and Spain debt in his $6.6 billion Global Macro Absolute Return Fund. As of March 31, about 5.3% of the portfolio was allocated to betting against French debt, while 3.35% of the portfolio was short on Spanish debt.
"The real fear is that you have a number of countries ultimately leaving the euro zone and sovereign defaults along the way," Mr. Cirami said. "I think for the short term, that's clearly the worst-case scenario."
Mr. Gross of Pimco said he hasn't completely abandoned the euro zone, and has maintained some exposure to French and Italian debt.
He added that he is concerned that if Greek bank customers grow more anxious, it will force "some kind of conclusion," like an intervention by the European Central Bank or an abrupt departure of Greece from the euro zone before the June 17 election.
"The prospect of a bank run is a real concern," Mr. Gross said.