por admin » Jue Jun 07, 2012 6:59 am
El momento Doji augura que el rally continua.
Doji en Japones y significa indecision, eso ocurrio dos dias antes cuando el mercado abrio y cerrar al mismo precio.
MARKETSJune 7, 2012, 7:34 a.m. ET
'Doji' Moment in S&P 500 Points to Longer-Term Rally
By TOMI KILGORE
One moment of indecision has turned into a decisive rally in stocks, backed by multiple micro and macro technical signals that some chart watchers feel could have longer-term significance.
The market's surge on Wednesday had its genesis two days earlier, when the Standard & Poor's 500 index produced a technical reversal pattern known as a "doji," by opening and closing at nearly the same price. A doji, which is Japanese for "at the same time," implies indecision in the marketplace.
Dojis can mark significant short-term bottoms when they appear at the extreme of a recent decline, because indecision by bears at a time they should be decisive means they have become vulnerable to a bullish counterattack.
The S&P 500 opened at 1278.29 on Monday, hit a five-month low of 1266.74 in intraday trading, then bounced to close fractionally lower at 1278.18.
Bulls took quick advantage of the opportunity. After climbing modestly on Tuesday, the S&P 500 leapt 29.63 points, or 2.3%, to 1315.13 on Wednesday, sprinting past the 200-day simple moving average, which many view as a dividing line between short-term and longer-term trends. But more important, it brushed aside what should have been strong resistance at the key pivot point around 1292.
That level was strong resistance from late October until the upside breakout in mid-January, then became strong support on the way back down—the May low was 1291.98—until the June 1 breakdown.
But these micro technical triggers aren't the only signs pointing to a potentially lasting rally for the S&P 500.
"Our macro technical analysis strongly suggests that a sustainable summer surge in risky assets has only just begun," said Richard Ross, global technical strategist at market-research firm Auerbach Grayson.
One of the bullish macro signals Mr. Ross noted is the breakout in the Euro Stoxx 600 Bank Index. Europe's banks have borne the brunt of investor concerns over the euro zone's sovereign debt and Spain's banking crisis, so signs of a potential bottom in the sector could have a positive effect.
The index ran up 3.9% to 126.53 on Wednesday, closing well above a downtrend line starting at the March 19 intraday high of 161.35.
Meanwhile, Spain's IBEX 35 Index produced a "bullish engulfing," a two-part candlestick chart pattern suggesting a short-term bottom was seen, earlier this week.
After closing at a nine-year low of 6065 on Friday, the index opened at 5998.90 on Monday, then bounced sharply to close at 6239.50, which was above Friday's open of 6109.70. When these engulfings appear at the extreme of a recent decline, they suggest bulls have taken the bears' best shot and have launched a successful counterattack.
The index closed Wednesday up 2.4% at 6418.90, also well above a downtrend line starting at a March high.
Basically, it's more than just the S&P 500 that is flashing some bullish signals. Auerbach Grayson's Mr. Ross said the charts suggest "even Europe can be owned."