La zona euro se contraera nuevamente y es el tercer trimestre consecutivo.
Euro Zone Set to Continue Contraction
By JASON DOUGLAS
The euro-zone economy looks set to shrink for the third straight quarter in the final three months of 2012, according to a preliminary gauge of activity published Friday, underscoring the challenges ahead for the currency union as its debt crisis enters another year.
The Centre for Economic Policy Research and the Bank of Italy said on Friday their Eurocoin indicator improved to -0.27% in December from -0.29% in November. The indicator is intended to estimate quarter-on-quarter growth in gross domestic product, excluding factors such as seasonal variations and brief bouts of volatility in output, and is one of the earliest measures of growth in the currency area.
The euro-zone economy shrank for six straight months to the end of September and the negative Eurocoin reading suggests it will shrink again in the final quarter of the year, even if the pace of decline appears to have slowed a little in December. CEPR and the Bank of Italy said the small improvement this month reflected an easing of tensions in financial markets, as well as business surveys that were less negative than in previous months.
Official data published in the past few weeks showed the fourth quarter got off to a poor start, with activity at factories and in the construction sector weakening in October. Data last week indicated that euro-zone exports to the rest of the world also started the fourth quarter weakly, and new data Friday showed that prices charged by companies at the factory gate in Austria and Italy weakened on the month in November, as weak demand stopped companies from boosting profit margins as energy prices fell. France had reported a similar drop in producer prices Thursday.
Adding to the gloom, France cut its initial estimate of economic growth in the third quarter to 0.1%, from a previous estimate of 0.2%.
The lack of economic growth complicates the task of governments in economically troubled countries such as Greece and Spain, depressing tax revenues and forcing higher social spending, creating a cycle that frustrates their attempts to cut their budget deficits.
The euro zone's economic fragility also raises the prospect of the European Central Bank stepping in to support growth in coming months by lowering its main interest rate or offering some other form of stimulus. Mario Draghi, the ECB's president, said earlier this month that some members of the bank's governing council wanted to cut the key rate at the latest policy meeting. The ECB estimates the economy will shrink by around 0.3% in 2013, with a recovery only beginning later in the year.
Recent business surveys have provided a glimmer of hope for the coming year. Data company Markit said Dec. 14 activity shrank in December but at the slowest pace for nine months, which could suggest the downturn in the currency union is bottoming out. The Dutch statistics agency CBS said Friday its business confidence index rose to -5.7 in December from -7.0. And elsewhere, French retail sales data published Friday showed consumer spending rose 0.2% in November from October which, although still weak, was better than the decline economists were expecting.
Write to Jason Douglas at
jason.douglas@dowjones.com