Lunes 17/05/10 Sobrevivira el euro?

Los acontecimientos mas importantes en el mundo de las finanzas, la economia (macro y micro), las bolsas mundiales, los commodities, el mercado de divisas, la politica monetaria y fiscal y la politica como variables determinantes en el movimiento diario de las acciones. Opiniones, estrategias y sugerencias de como navegar el fascinante mundo del stock market.

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Notapor admin » Dom May 16, 2010 10:54 pm

Esta no es una buena senial:

La falta de confianza golpean los mercados crediticios en Europa

El money market esta mostrando crecientes niveles de falta de confianza entre los bancos europes ante la preocupacion de que el casi $1 trillon de rescate no ayudara a provenir la crisis soberana cuyo default podria general la ruptura del euro.

Entre los bancos mas afectados estan Royal Bank of Scotland, el costo para proteger contra los bancos europeos subieron 63% en el ultimo mes.

Libor que es el costo de prestamos entre los bancos a 3 meses subio a 0.44 y muestra la falta de confianza en el sistema.

‘Lack of Trust’ Pummels Bank Lending in Europe: Credit Markets
By Pierre Paulden and Shannon D. Harrington

May 17 (Bloomberg) -- Money markets are showing rising levels of mistrust between Europe’s banks on concern an almost $1 trillion bailout package won’t prevent a sovereign debt default that might trigger a breakup of the euro.

Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc and Barclays Plc led financial firms punished by rising borrowing costs, British Bankers’ Association data show. The cost to hedge against losses on European bank bonds is 63 percent higher than a month earlier. Investment-grade corporate debt sales in the region plummeted 88 percent last week to $1.2 billion from the prior period, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

The rate banks say they charge each other for three-month loans in dollars is the highest in nine months, even after a government-led rescue designed to prevent Greece from defaulting on its debt and a new financial crisis. The euro is trading at its weakest level versus the dollar since the aftermath of Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc.’s collapse, and stocks tumbled.

Bank lending “conveys a lack of trust in the system,” said Robert Baur, chief global economist at Des Moines, Iowa- based Principal Global Investors, which manages $222 billion. “Banks are a little reluctant to lend overnight as they don’t know the full extent of what is on the bank balance sheets.”

The three-month London interbank offered rate in dollars, or Libor, rose to 0.445 percent last week, the highest level since August, from 0.428 percent on May 7 and 0.252 at the end of February, according to the British Bankers’ Association.

‘Access Spotty’

Concerns have spilled into the market for commercial paper, debt used by companies and banks for their short-term operating needs. Rates on 90-day paper are more than double the upper band of the federal funds rate, about twice the average in the five years before credit markets seized up in mid-2007.

“The list of banks able to tap the three-month market remains extremely limited with access spotty and expensive,” Joseph Abate, a money-market strategist at Barclays in New York, wrote in a May 14 note to clients.

Elsewhere in credit markets, the extra yield investors demand to own corporate bonds instead of government securities climbed 3 basis points on May 14 to 171 basis points, or 1.71 percentage points, according to Bank of America Merrill Lynch’s Global Broad Market Corporate Index. The index fell from 177 basis points a week earlier, the first decline since the period ended April 16.

Investors seeking to protect themselves from losses on bonds or speculate on creditworthiness by buying credit-default swaps drove benchmark indexes in Europe and the U.S. higher at the end of the week, according to prices from Markit Group Ltd.

Default Swaps

The Markit iTraxx Europe Index, linked to the bonds of 125 companies, rose 11.5 basis points to 109.75 basis points on May 14, down from 133 a week earlier, Markit prices show. The Markit CDX North America Investment Grade Index, tied to 125 companies in the U.S. and Canada, rose 6.8 to 107.9. The index was at 118.7 on May 7.

Credit-default swaps pay the buyer face value if a borrower fails to meet its obligations, less the value of the defaulted debt. A basis point equals $1,000 annually on a contract protecting $10 million of debt. The contracts typically rise as investor confidence deteriorates and fall as it improves.

Yields on Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac mortgage securities that guide home-loan rates dropped to the lowest in five months on concern the sovereign debt crisis will stunt economic growth.

Yields of Fannie Mae’s current-coupon 30-year fixed-rate mortgage bonds tumbled 0.07 percentage point to 4.2 percent, the lowest since Dec. 17, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

Global corporate bond sales rose to $20.2 billion last week from $11.9 billion in the previous five-day period, which was the lowest this year, Bloomberg data show. Issuance compares with a weekly average for 2010 of $53 billion.

Leveraged Loans

Prices on the Standard & Poor’s/LSTA U.S. Leveraged Loan 100 Index, which tracks the 100 largest dollar-denominated first-lien leveraged loans, rose 0.09 cent on the dollar last week to 90.98 cents.

About $111.4 billion in U.S. speculative-grade loans have been arranged this year, according to Bloomberg data, up from $34.4 billion in the comparable period in 2009. More than $373.1 billion of the loans were arranged during the period in 2007.

Cincinnati Bell Inc., a telephone company serving Ohio, is seeking a $760 million term loan to finance its acquisition of CyrusOne and to refinance existing bank debt. The loan is part of a $970 million senior secured credit facility, which also includes a $210 million revolving credit line, the Cincinnati- based company said in a May 13 filing.

EMI Lifeline

In Europe’s loan market, EMI Group Plc was given a lifeline after investors agreed to inject enough cash to maintain the banking agreements of the 79-year-old record company of The Beatles. Guy Hands’s Terra Firma Capital Partners Ltd. will put more cash into the label, EMI said in a May 14 statement. The investment will be made by June 14. Citigroup Inc. is the principal lender. No further details were disclosed.

The extra yield investors demand to own emerging-market bonds instead of Treasuries rose 15 basis points on May 14 to 295 basis points, according to JPMorgan Chase & Co.’s Emerging Market Bond index. Spreads rose as high as 328 a week earlier.

Brazil central bank President Henrique Meirelles said May 14 that market volatility stems from “natural” doubts over the measures taken by Europe. Meirelles, speaking to reporters in Rio de Janeiro, said Brazil is well prepared to face any international crisis because of its high currency reserves, floating exchange rate and inflation near target.

European Bailout

European policy makers’ plan to prevent a sovereign-debt collapse that threatened to slow the global economic recovery and tear apart the 11-year-old common currency was released on May 10. The loan package offers as much as 750 billion euros ($927 billion), including International Monetary Fund backing, to countries facing instability, while the European Central Bank said it will buy government and private debt.

On May 14, the euro slid below $1.24 to the lowest level since October 2008 and stocks trimmed a weekly rally. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index declined 1.9 percent, paring gain for the week to 2.3 percent. The Stoxx Europe 600 Index slumped 3.4 percent to finish a 4.8 percent weekly advance.

Deutsche Bank AG Chief Executive Officer Josef Ackermann said Greece may not be able to repay its debt in full, and former Federal Reserve Chairman Paul Volcker said he’s concerned the euro area may break up. Sony Corp., the world’s second- largest maker of consumer electronics, said it may suffer a “significant impact” if Europe’s deficit spreads, while Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao said the foundations for a worldwide recovery aren’t “solid” as the sovereign-debt crisis deepens.

Commercial Paper

Rates on commercial paper for 90 days are 24 basis points above the upper band of the Fed’s zero to 25-basis point target rate for overnight loans among banks. While far below the 245- basis point gap reached in October 2008, the spread is more than double the 10-basis-point average in the five years before credit markets seized up in the middle of 2007. As recently as February, financial CP rates were below the federal funds rate.

Except for banks with little exposure to European sovereign risk, banks “have found liquidity to be scarce, securing funding only one month and shorter and mostly concentrated inside one week,” Abate from Barclays wrote in the report.

The rate at which London-based Barclays, the U.K.’s third- largest bank by market value, told the British Bankers’ Association it could borrow for three months in dollars climbed 2 basis points last week to 47 basis points, the highest since July 2009, and is up from 34 basis points on April 30, Bloomberg data show. The bank’s rate is 2.5 basis points above the three- month Libor. On average, Barclays reported a rate that was 1.3 basis points below Libor during the past year.

Barclays spokesman Mark Lane declined to comment.

Credit Suisse Rate

Credit Suisse Group’s rate has jumped 11 basis points to 47 this month and was 2.5 basis points higher than the benchmark on May 14, compared with an average 1.5 basis points higher during the past year. The firm’s primary sources of funding are long- term debt, shareholders’ equity and deposits, said Marc Dosch, a spokesman for Switzerland’s biggest bank by market value.

Releasing its first-quarter results last month, the Zurich- based bank said its “exposure to Greece is not material” and its “exposure to the other southern European economies that have been subject to credit downgrades is relatively limited.”

The reported rate for Edinburgh-based Royal Bank of Scotland, the U.K.’s biggest state-controlled bank, climbed 10 basis points to 46 this month, 1.5 basis points higher than the benchmark.

RBS finance director Bruce Van Saun said last week the bank held 1.5 billion pounds ($2.2 billion) in Greek debt with about 400 million pounds of unrealized losses. Credit exposure to Greece was less than 1 billion pounds, he said. “Overall, our exposure to Greece is moderate, and any potential economic impact, I would say, is manageable,” Van Saun said on a May 7 conference call.

RBS spokesman Michael Strachan declined to comment further.
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Notapor admin » Dom May 16, 2010 10:56 pm

Los indicadores economicos leading subieron 1.1% en China en Marzo habia subido 0.4% en Febrero.
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Notapor admin » Dom May 16, 2010 10:58 pm

Euro extiende caída, toca mínimo 4 años contra dólar
domingo 16 de mayo de 2010 23:21 GYT
Imprimir[-] Texto [+] TOKIO (Reuters) - El euro extendía sus pérdidas el lunes y alcanzó un mínimo de cuatro años, golpeado por los persistentes temores a que los duros recortes de gastos en economías europeas exigidos por un plan de rescate podría interrumpir una frágil recuperación en la eurozona.
El euro cayó hasta un mínimo de 1,2306 dólares en la plataforma de negocios EBS, su peor nivel desde abril del 2006.

Ahora que el euro ha retrocedido más allá de su mínimo registrado en octubre del 2008 a 1,2329 dólares, el próximo piso importante en los registros históricos está marcado a 1,1640 dólares, un mínimo tocado en noviembre del 2005.
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Notapor admin » Dom May 16, 2010 11:01 pm

Euro down 1.2264
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Notapor Mr. Gold » Dom May 16, 2010 11:09 pm

admin escribió:Euro down 1.2264


Se requiere recuperar :?
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Notapor admin » Lun May 17, 2010 6:15 am

Oil up 71.71, Au down 1,227.60

Los futures del Dow Jones 6 puntos al alza.

Yields up 3.46%

Euro down 1.2324

Futures cu down 3.08

Libor up 0.46%

Europa al alza, Asia cerro en rojo
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Notapor admin » Lun May 17, 2010 6:21 am

Iran acepta enviar su uranio para ser reprocesado a Turkey gracias a las negociaciones de ese pais y Brasil. De esta manera Iran evita mas sanciones.

Prudential lanza venta de rights por $21 billones o nuevas acciones para realizar la compra de la unidad en el Asia de AIG.

Man Group comprara uno de sus mas grandes rivales GLG por $1.6 billones creando un gigante hedge fund que manejara $63 billones.

Apollo Global Management en conversaciones para comprar Pactiv.

Euro down 1.2331
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Notapor admin » Lun May 17, 2010 6:22 am

El Shanghai C. cayo 5.1% ante la preocupacion de inminentes medidas de ajuste monetario y fiscal en China.
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Notapor admin » Lun May 17, 2010 6:24 am

ABK +10.53%

FAS +1.14%

EDC +2.68%

DRN +0.12%
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Notapor admin » Lun May 17, 2010 6:24 am

Futures cu down 3.0775
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Notapor admin » Lun May 17, 2010 6:25 am

Ojo con los metales que ahora tienen dos motivos para bajar, por un lado lo que pasa con euro y las medidas que China tomara para enfriar su economia. Parece una conspiracion contra los metales basicos. Malos momentos.
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Notapor admin » Lun May 17, 2010 6:25 am

+20
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Notapor admin » Lun May 17, 2010 6:26 am

Yen down 92.43
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Notapor admin » Lun May 17, 2010 6:39 am

Slim es un ser un mano horrible, hasta cuando va a poder detener el progreso en Mexico. Por hombres como ese hay gente que odia al capitalismo.

...............................................................

Slim detiene a Deutsche Telekom, China Mobil, Reliance, etc.

Slim mantendra su dominacion sobre la industria de celulares en Mexico donde la regulacion del gobierno no dejara que rivales como Deutsche Telekom AG, China Mobil Corp., Reliance, etc.

Slim tiene el 71% del mercado y ha mantenido los precios mas altos que su competencia por lo que se ha convertido en el hombre mas rico del mundo.


Slim Stops Deutsche Telekom, Reliance From Mexico Mobile Entry
By Crayton Harrison

May 17 (Bloomberg) -- Carlos Slim is likely to keep his dominance over Mexico’s wireless industry as government regulations deter potential rivals such as Deutsche Telekom AG from bidding for airwave licenses this week.

The government designed the auctions to bring more competitors into the mobile-phone market, where the 71 percent share held by Slim’s America Movil SAB has kept prices high for some customers and helped make him one of the world’s richest men. While China Mobile Corp., Reliance Communications Ltd. and Deutsche Telekom showed interest, they had concerns about regulators’ ability to foster competition, said Gonzalo Martinez Pous, a commissioner at the Federal Telecommunications Commission. It’s now unlikely any additional rivals will bid in the auction, he said.

A fifth competitor in Latin America’s second-largest wireless industry would lower prices, cutting into sales and profits at America Movil’s Telcel unit, said Christopher King, an analyst at Stifel Nicolaus & Co. Slim’s dominance, along with the annual fees required for auction winners, scared off potential bidders, he said.

“This has to be viewed as a win for Telcel,” said King, who is based in Baltimore and advises buying America Movil shares. “It’s a disappointment for the government.”

The government had expected to generate about $5.8 billion, from the May 25 auctions largely from annual usage fees to be paid over two decades, according to data from the Federal Telecommunications Commission. Without an additional entrant, the figure would fall to about $4.3 billion because a block of airwaves will go unsold, according to the regulator’s data.

More Speed

President Felipe Calderon cited the auctions in an April 30 speech as an example of how his administration would bring more competition to an economy where one or two companies dominate industries from television and cement to beer and bread. His press office did not return phone calls seeking comment.

The auctions won’t be a failure without a new competitor, said Martinez Pous in a May 10 interview. Though the country may have the same number of carriers, two of them should be able to offer high-speed 3G service across Mexico for the first time, boosting competition against Mexico City-based America Movil.

Telefonica SA, based in Madrid, hasn’t had the capacity to offer 3G services in Mexico City and other large urban areas. The auctions may help Telefonica to compete in that market.

Mexican officials sought new rivals for Slim in China, India, Korea and Germany, Martinez Pous said. Representatives of the Federal Telecommunications Commission held talks with Bonn, Germany-based Deutsche Telekom, Beijing-based China Telecom and Mumbai-based Reliance.

The companies expressed concerns over regulation of interconnection fees between carriers, the lack of rules for companies to share infrastructure and the tight control over the Federal Telecommunications Commission by the Communications and Transportation Ministry, he said.

Cost Competition

Deutsche Telekom spokeswoman Sylvia Braunle declined to comment. China Mobile doesn’t plan to seek mobile-phone airwaves in Mexico “at the moment,” Chairman Wang Jianzhou said May 15 at a conference in the eastern Chinese city of Ningbo. Syed Safawi, president of the wireless business at Mumbai-based Reliance Communications, said he wasn’t aware the company was interested in Mexico’s wireless auctions.

Regulatory Concerns

Interconnection fees can be an effective way to keep out competition, according to a report last year by Mexico’s Federal Competition Commission. The telecom operator receiving a call in the country bills the company initiating the call for the connection. That means a dominant company like Telcel can charge rivals for completing their calls, driving up their costs and hampering their ability to offer low rates, the antitrust regulator found. Telcel’s market share gives it lower costs to begin with, since it doesn’t have to pay any connection fee when one of its customers calls another.

The telecommunications commission has sought to force Telcel to charge lower interconnection fees than wireless rivals. Telcel sued to block the plan and the case is tied up in court, America Movil said in a regulatory filing last month.

“What worried them the most was the regulation in Mexico,” said Martinez Pous.

Alejandro Cantu, general counsel for America Movil, said in an e-mail that the interconnection rates are competitive with the other member countries of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development and with other Latin American nations, and there has always been opportunity for new entrants in Mexico’s mobile-phone business. Arturo Elias, a spokesman for Slim, 70, didn’t return phone calls seeking comment.

Sales Growth

Telcel is the biggest unit of Slim’s America Movil, representing 40 percent of its sales and almost half of its profit, excluding interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization. Its profit margin, excluding those items, was 58 percent last quarter. America Movil also offers wireless service in the U.S. and in most of Latin America.

America Movil’s sales rose 9.8 percent last quarter to 98.7 billion pesos, growing at more than twice the rate of the Latin America revenue of Telefonica, its closest competitor in the region. America Movil’s shares closed May 14 at 30.96 pesos, down 30 centavos, and are little changed for the year, compared to a 24 percent decline at Telefonica.

Wireless Costs

Telcel will more easily keep its dominance without a new rival, King said. Telefonica has 21 percent of the market, giving the top two players more than 90 percent together.

For customers who make a few dozen calls a month, Telcel’s prices are lower than those of rivals in Mexico and carriers in other countries, according to Teligen, a London-based unit of Strategy Analytics Inc. that analyzes prices for the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development. Telcel is more expensive for customers who make hundreds of calls monthly. Its customers used an average of 201 minutes a month last quarter, spending 163 pesos ($13) a month.

Lower prices would make mobile-phone service affordable for more people in Mexico, where about 77 percent of the population had a mobile phone line at the end of last year, according to an April report from Bank of America Corp.’s Merrill Lynch unit. That trailed the 90 percent average in Latin America.

Local Bidders?

Local companies are unlikely to bid in the wireless auctions. Guadalajara-based Megacable Holdings SAB, Mexico’s largest cable carrier, dropped out of the bidding this month after concluding it wouldn’t make financial sense to build its own wireless network. While San Pedro Garza Garcia-based Axtel SAB, Mexico’s second-largest land-line carrier, is qualified to bid, Chief Financial Officer Felipe Canales said in April the fees required to use the airwaves made the option of participating in the auction “less attractive than other ones that we are evaluating.”

NII Holdings Inc., which operates the Nextel brand in Latin America, plans to build its own 3G network with funding and marketing support from Mexico City-based Grupo Televisa SA, the nation’s largest broadcaster. Reston, Virginia-based NII, the smallest of Mexico’s four carriers, agreed to sell a 30 percent stake in its Mexico unit to Televisa in February.

Though Televisa will give NII more advertising power and will help the mobile-phone carrier expand from its niche of business customers, the companies aren’t likely to go after America Movil’s largest customer base, customers who make calls using prepaid minutes, said King of Stifel Nicolaus.

“While certainly they don’t want to see competitors get any stronger, I think Nextel’s probably the one that worries them the least,” he said.
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Notapor admin » Lun May 17, 2010 6:42 am

El plan del BCE enfrenta una prueba de fuego
¿Cuánta deuda soberana comprará el Banco Central Europeo?

Por Neil Shah

La extraordinaria decisión del Banco Central Europeo (BCE) de comprar bonos soberanos ha aliviado la presión sobre las economías más débiles de la zona euro, pero el temor a posibles cesaciones de pagos sigue amenazando a los mercados financieros.

Las ventas de bonos de Irlanda y España, programadas para esta semana, pondrán a prueba las nuevas medidas de emergencia del BCE. La entidad comenzó a comprar los bonos de Grecia, Irlanda, Portugal, España e Italia el lunes pasado. Aunque no hay datos oficiales, se estima que el BCE habría comprado bonos por cerca de 7.000 millones de euros el lunes (US$8.670 millones), para luego reducir el monto a lo largo de la semana. El jueves, habría gastado 2.000 millones de euros, según los cálculos del banco holandés ING Groep NV.

A pesar de las turbulencias del viernes, el panorama ha mejorado para las economías más afligidas de la zona euro desde que el BCE empezara a implementar su plan. La prima adicional que Portugal le debe ofrecer a los inversionistas interesados en sus bonos en lugar de los ultraseguros bonos alemanes cayó abruptamente a cerca de dos puntos porcentuales el viernes, una señal de que los temores de los inversionistas se han aliviado.

El jueves, Italia recaudó 5.000 millones de euros mediante una emisión de deuda, otra señal de que han disminuido las tensiones en los mercados de bonos. Portugal tuvo una colocación exitosa el miércoles. Los analistas, sin embargo, advierten que tales mejoras podrían resultar efímeras, lo que podría obligar al BCE a seguir comprando deuda soberana para apuntalar los mercados hasta que se estabilice la demanda de los inversionistas privados. Eso, a su vez, podría tener serias consecuencias de largo plazo al intensificar las dudas de que las compras del BCE generen presiones inflacionarias o socaven un euro ya debilitado.

"El mercado ha desarrollado un hábito de exigir más, sin importar cuánto se les ha dado", señala Georg Grodzki, analista de la gestora de fondos londinense Legal & General Investment Management. Grodzki afirma que el BCE sólo está postergando los problemas de deuda de los países y mermando su propia credibilidad.

Ayuda central

Portugal e Italia, dos de los países más endeudados de la zona euro, podrían no estar de acuerdo. Después de ver cómo el costo de su financiamiento se disparara hace algunos días, Portugal emitió 1.000 millones de euros el miércoles, por los que pagó a los inversionistas una tasa de 4,52%, una cifra ligeramente inferior al 4,55% del mercado en general. Un día después, Italia, colocó bonos por 5.000 millones de euros, y la demanda superó la oferta. Asimismo, los costos de financiamiento de los gobiernos de la zona euro cayeron drásticamente durante la mayor parte de la semana pasada, un reflejo del menor nerviosismo de los inversionistas sobre cesaciones de pagos en Europa. El costo de los seguros contra una cesación de pagos de un gobierno europeo también descendió.

.Aunque las medidas del BCE podrían haber evitado un pánico financiero, los inversionistas siguen preocupados de que Grecia y otros países agobiados por sus deudas no logren realizar los severos ajustes necesarios para sanear sus cuentas fiscales. Los disturbios sociales, especialmente en Grecia, son una de las mayores inquietudes. En última instancia, Grecia y otros países tendrían que renegociar sus deudas, lo que se traduciría en grandes pérdidas para los bancos europeos que tengan deuda griega en sus portafolios, advierten los analistas.

Una señal de que las preocupaciones del mercado se mantienen es que la diferencia entre el costo del endeudamiento de Alemania y el de otros países de la zona euro ha caído, pero sigue por encima del nivel de hace apenas un mes. Mientras tanto, las empresas europeas que necesitan refinanciar su deuda no han acudido al mercado a pesar de un breve repunte de las bolsas. Por otra parte, las tasas que los bancos cobran por prestarse entre ellos han seguido subiendo, lo que sugiere que las preocupaciones sobre el sistema bancario aún no se han disipado.

El paquete de ayuda ensamblado por la Unión Europea y el Fondo Monetario Internacional (FMI) le otorga más tiempo a Grecia "pero no hace nada para reducir su endeudamiento", dice una nota de la firma de valores Brown Brothers Harriman. "Es lo mismo que hace el plan de compra de bonos del BCE, al transferir el riesgo griego de los bancos privados al BCE".

La gran prueba tendrá lugar esta semana, cuando una serie de países, entre ellos Holanda y Alemania, tratarán de recaudar entre 24.000 millones de euros y 27.000 millones de euros mediante la colocación de nuevos bonos, según analistas del banco italiano UniCredit. Puesto que el BCE ha guardado silencio sobre su estrategia de compra de bonos, la forma en que responda a las dudas del mercado podría ofrecer claros indicios acerca de su grado de compromiso.

La mayor prueba será la de España, que colocará deuda por 3.000 millones de euros el jueves, luego de operaciones similares de Francia y Alemania.
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