Las acciones peruanas cayeron debido a que el ex-rebelde lidera las encuestas de la segunda vuelta. El sol tambien cayo y el costo de la deuda subio a su nivel mas alto desde Julio.
La bolsa ha caido 16% en el ultimo mes.
Scotia dijo que de ganar Humala las inversiones mineras a largo plazo sufriran bastante.
En Lima Fujimori le gana a Humala 43% a 35%. Lima es un tercio del electorado.
Peru Stocks, Currency Decline as Ex-Rebel Humala Leads Presidential Poll
By John Quigley - Apr 25, 2011 5:57 PM ET
Peruvian stocks, bonds and the currency fell, and the country’s relative borrowing costs climbed to the highest since July, after former Peruvian military rebel Ollanta Humala opened a six-point lead in a presidential poll before a June 5 runoff vote.
The Lima General Index of stocks declined 3.3 percent to 18,176.55. The gauge has dropped 16 percent in the past month, the biggest slide among 90 primary indexes tracked by Bloomberg.
Humala, who won the first round of elections this month, had the support of 42 percent of those polled by Lima-based researcher Ipsos Apoyo, compared with 36 percent for Congresswoman Keiko Fujimori. Falling Peruvian asset prices reflect investors’ fear of Humala’s proposals, including higher mining royalties and increased state control of the country’s gas reserves, and concern he will strengthen ties with Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez, said Cesar Perez-Novoa, managing director of Santiago-based brokerage Celfin Capital.
“All this adds up to less investment and a hindrance for the economy,” Perez-Novoa said. “Given the country’s strong growth, its potential and Peru’s position in the international market, there is more at stake in these elections than ever.”
Peruvian Finance Minister Ismael Benavides said last week that Humala’s economic policy plans, which include renegotiating contracts with foreign companies and trading partners including the U.S., are unsettling investors. The $153 billion economy will slow, beginning this month, as companies postpone investment until after the vote, Benavides said.
Sol Decline
The Peruvian sol fell 0.2 percent to 2.8245 per U.S. dollar. The yield on the nation’s benchmark 7.84 percent sol- denominated bond rose to its highest in more than two years, adding 2 basis points, or 0.02 percentage point, to 7.28 percent, according to prices compiled by Bloomberg.
The extra yield investors demand to hold Peruvian dollar bonds instead of U.S. Treasuries rose 4 basis points to 208, the most since July, according to JPMorgan Chase & Co.
The sol has declined 1.3 percent in the past month, the worst performance among 31 major currencies tracked by Bloomberg, on concern Humala’s pledges to boost state control of the fastest-growing major Latin American economy of the last five years will lead investors to pare investment projects valued at as much as $50 billion.
Peru is the world’s second-largest miner of copper, No. 6 in gold and the world’s largest silver producer. Minerals account for about two-thirds of the Andean country’s exports.
Lima Favors Fujimori
“The fact that Humala is in the lead by six percentage points is negative as far as foreign investors are concerned,” Joe Kogan, head of emerging markets strategy at Scotia Capital Markets Inc., said in a telephone interview from New York. “It’s getting harder and harder to say he can’t win. In the long term, investment in the mining industry would probably suffer quite a bit with Humala.”
According to the Ipsos Apoyo poll, Humala had 44 percent support outside of the Lima metropolitan area, compared with Fujimori’s 33 percent. Within Lima’s city limits, Fujimori, 35, the daughter of jailed former president Alberto Fujimori, had 43 percent support, compared with 35 percent for Humala, Ipsos Apoyo said. Lima accounts for about a third of the Peruvian electorate.
Ipsos Apoyo said 22 percent of those surveyed are either undecided or would cast a blank vote. The researcher said 35 percent of those surveyed said they would never vote for Humala, compared with 38 percent for Fujimori.
The researcher contacted 1,802 people in 23 of Peru’s 25 regions from April 16 to 21. The margin of error was 2.3 percentage points.
Outside Financing
Almost half of those surveyed say Chavez is financing Humala’s campaign and that, if elected, the former army official would ally himself with the Venezuelan leader and Bolivian President Evo Morales, according to the poll, which was published yesterday in El Comercio newspaper.
Humala, 48, has said he hasn’t received any outside financing for his presidential campaign.
Almost two-thirds of those surveyed are in favor of Humala’s proposal to change or replace the 1993 constitution introduced after Alberto Fujimori dissolved Congress and the courts in April 1992, the poll shows.
Humala in 2000 commanded 50 soldiers who seized and occupied one of Phoenix-based Southern Copper Corp.’s Peruvian mines for a week to protest corruption in Fujimori’s government.
Ipsos Apoyo said 68 percent of those surveyed predict that, if elected, Fujimori would free her father, who is serving a 25- year sentence for directing a paramilitary death squad.
First Round
Fujimori said last week she won’t pardon her father, after saying in 2008 she wouldn’t hesitate to free him if she became president.
Humala won 32 percent of balloting in the April 10 first- round vote, falling short of the 50 percent needed to avoid a runoff. The U.S.-educated Fujimori won 24 percent of the vote.
Peruvians should vote for Humala and demand he respects democracy and a free-market economy, Mario Vargas Llosa, the Nobel Prize literature laureate who lost the presidency to Alberto Fujimori in the 1990 election, wrote in Spain’s El Pais newspaper yesterday.
Humala is the clear favorite to win the presidency and there is a 70 percent probability he will, said Erasto Almeida, an analyst at research company Eurasia Group, in an e-mailed statement.
To contact the reporter on this story: John Quigley in Lima at
jquigley8@bloomberg.net
por ALFONSO » Lun Abr 25, 2011 8:22 pm 