por admin » Mié Feb 22, 2012 7:20 am
La manufactura y los servicios se contraen en Europa
Europa no logra repuntar despues del cuarto trimestre.
Economy · Europe · Retail .Euro-Area Manufacturing, Services Contract
By Fergal O’Brien - Feb 22, 2012 6:49 AM ET .LinkedIn Google +1 Print QUEUEQ..Enlarge image
Euro-Area Manufacturing, Services Unexpectedly Contract Simon Dawson/Bloomberg
European services and manufacturing output unexpectedly shrank in February as the euro-area economy struggled to rebound from a contraction in the fourth quarter.
A euro-area composite index based on a survey of purchasing managers in both industries dropped to 49.7 from 50.4 in January, London-based Markit Economics said in an initial estimate today. Economists had forecast a reading of 50.5, according to the median of 16 estimates in a Bloomberg News survey. A reading below 50 indicates contraction.
Budget cuts by governments may curb the pace of Europe’s recovery as countries across the region battle the sovereign- debt crisis. At the same time, China’s manufacturing may shrink for a fourth month in February, indicating the world’s second- biggest economy remains vulnerable to a deeper slowdown as Europe’s crisis caps exports.
“We see some signs of stabilization, but it’s still too weak to conclude that we’ll be able to avert a recession,” said Jens Kramer, an economist at NordLB in Hanover, Germany. “Germany and France helped counter some of the slack, but tougher consolidation measures in countries like Spain or Portugal will continue, which means that it will probably have a negative impact on the economic performance into 2013.”
The euro erased losses after the data were released, trading at $1.3235 at 12:28 p.m. in Brussels, up less than 0.1 percent on the day. The Stoxx Europe 600 Index (SXXP) dropped 0.8 percent to 264.74.
Banks’ Reserve Requirements
A gauge of euro-region manufacturing rose to 49 in February from 48.8 in January, Markit said. A measure of services fell to 49.4 from 50.4.
In China, the preliminary 49.7 reading of a manufacturing index from HSBC Holdings Plc and Markit compared with a final 48.8 in January.
China is cutting banks’ reserve requirements from Feb. 24 to support an economic expansion that Nomura Holdings Inc. estimates may be 7.5 percent this quarter, the least since the global financial crisis. In today’s report, a measure of export orders fell to an eight-month low, underscoring Commerce Minister Chen Deming’s Feb. 9 caution that the government is not optimistic about the outlook for trade after a decline in shipments in January.
‘External Weakness’
“With a meaningful rebound of domestic demand not in sight, external weakness is starting to bite, adding more downside risks to growth,” said Qu Hongbin, a Hong Kong-based economist for HSBC. The central bank “should step up policy easing as inflation pressures continue to ease.”
The gloomy economic news in Asia and Europe contrasted with the U.S., where sales of previously owned houses probably rose in January to the highest level since May 2010, adding to signs the housing market is regaining its footing, economists said before a report today.
Purchases climbed 1.1 percent, a fourth straight monthly increase, to a 4.66 million annual rate from a 4.61 million pace in December, according to the median forecast of 74 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News. The National Association of Realtors’ data are due at 10 a.m. in Washington.
“Things are beginning to pick up here,” said Kevin Cummins, an economist at UBS Securities LLC in Stamford, Connecticut. “We will see better home sales data in coming months. With healthier gains in payrolls, incomes should be picking up as well. That’s going to spill over.”
‘Far From Promising’
European efforts to tackle the debt crisis advanced yesterday, as Greece reached a debt-swap deal with its private creditors aimed at averting default and restoring confidence.
Euro-area consumer confidence improved for a second month in February, with a report yesterday showing an index of sentiment rose to minus 20.2 from minus 20.7. Still, government austerity measures and unemployment at the highest in almost 14 years may restrain household spending.
“The prospects for euro-zone consumer spending still look far from promising in the near term at least,” said Howard Archer, chief European economist at IHS Global Insight in London. “It is still more likely than not that the euro zone will see further economic contraction overall in the first quarter.”