por admin » Vie May 28, 2010 5:59 am
Los americanos no dejaran de gastar
El consumidor Americano sigue gastando y no ha cambiado su estilo extravagante de consumo.
La nueva normalidad de la economia depende menos de las compras del consumidor, pero el consumo interno aumento un saludable 3.5% anualizado en el primer trimestre. Las cifras mostraran una pequenia mejoria en el nivel de ahorro a 3.1%.
Es mas la deuda de los Americanos que era 132% en el 2007 ha bajado a 122% en el cuarto trimestre del 2009. El porcentaje del ingreso dedicado a pagar deuda bajo del 19% en el 2007 a 17.5%.
Durante el boom el ahorro era solamente del 1%.
Los Americanos estan recortando sus deudas.
Americans Won't Stop Spending? Save It.
By KELLY EVANS
Penny pinchers they ain't. But, despite some signs to the contrary, U.S. consumers aren't heading back to their spendthrift ways, either.
Confounding forecasts of a "new normal" economy less reliant on mall rats, consumer spending grew at a healthy 3.5% annualized pace in the first quarter. On Friday, the Commerce Department releases April figures expected to show little improvement in the savings rate from its first-quarter average of about 3.1%.
This has helped retailers—and the broader economy—post an impressive turnaround in the past year. It has also stoked fears the gains won't be sustainable.
They might. While returning to the stores, consumers also appear to be making some improvements to their finances. Households' ratio of total debt to disposable income, for example, has shrunk from about 132% on average in 2007 to 122% as of the fourth quarter of 2009, according to the Federal Reserve. The share of income needed to make payments on debt and other obligations, like car leases, has meanwhile fallen from nearly 19% in late 2007 to 17.5%.
How so? By default. The silver lining of rampant foreclosures and credit-card delinquencies is that people are actively shedding debt and bringing spending more in line with income. "It's basically a crude form of savings," says Kevin Lansing, a senior economist with the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco. Granted, that isn't great news for the nation's banks, he notes, which continue to struggle with losses from the souring loans. It is, though, the type of purge needed for the economy to truly recover.
Bloomberg News
Consumer spending grew at a healthy 3.5% annualized pace in the first quarter. Above, Macy's department store at Herald Square in New York.
.The savings rate itself is also an imperfect estimate that is often revised higher. For example, the oft-cited negative rates reported during the boom were later moved up to about 1%. The rate also includes spending on big-ticket items like autos even though households rarely pay for them all at once. And it may currently be understating income growth, says ITG Chief Economist Robert Barbera, as payroll data used for the estimates continue to be revised higher.
In short, consumer spending may not be headed off a cliff, or poised for a return to profligate days.
Instead, consumers appear to be pursuing what, for the economy, could be a happy medium.