Lunes 02/15/16 Feriado por el Dia de los Presidentes

[Fenix]

¿Qué es lo que preocupa ahora a los inversores?

Lunes, 15 de Febrero del 2016 - 6:18:53

El analista Jeff Miller hace una interesante relación de las preocupaciones actuales de los inversores:

- Debilidad técnica en el mercado de acciones

* Pérdida de impulso.
* Las subidas del viernes y hoy han sido básicamente cierre de cortos.
* Rupturas de importantes niveles técnicos.

- El mercado de acciones está mostrando claramente recesión económica.
- Debil crecimiento de las ganancias y debilidad en las perspectivas.
- Dólar fuerte daña las ventas, exportaciones y ganancias de las multinacionales.

- Varianes en la letra "R"

* Recesión de ganancias.
* Recesión crecimiento.
* Recesión sector manufacturero.
- Caída precios materias primas.
- No hay líderes emergentes.
- Tasas negativas de interés.
- Bajada del dólar.
- Fin del programa QE de la Fed.


6:31 EUR/USD intradía: la curva descendente prevalece
Trading Central
Punto pivote (nivel de invalidación): 1,1260

Nuestra preferencia: posiciones cortas debajo de 1,1260 con objetivos en 1,1185 y 1,1155 en extensión.

Escenario alternativo: arriba de 1,1260 buscar mayor indicación al alza con 1,1300 y 1,1320 como objetivos.

Comentario técnico: el RSI está limitado por una línea de tendencia en descenso.

6:20 Fabricantes de automóviles europeos gozan de un gran rebote
Las acciones de los fabricantes de automóviles europeos están disfrutando de un gran rebote en la sesión de hoy, subiendo sensiblemente en medio de un amplio rebote en la renta variable después de sufrir fuertes pérdidas desde que estalló el escándalo Volkswagen (ver gráfico adjunto vía FT).

La serie de escándalos se ha combinado con los temores sobre la desaceleración económica de China para lastrar el precio de las acciones de los fabricantes de automóviles de Europa.

6:54 RBS reduce su previsión para el rendimiento del bono alemán
Los analistas del Royal Bank of Scotland creen que el rendimiento del bono alemán a 10 años bajará al -0,10% en los próximos meses, frente a su anterior estimación del 0,16%.

La rentabilidad del bono alemán a 10 años se mantiene plana en el 0,27%.

8:21 Nomura reduce su previsión de crecimiento para Japón
Los analistas de Nomura rebajan la estimación de crecimiento PIB Japón para este año al 1% desde el 1,4% anterior previsión.

8:13 Acerinox. Exane eleva precio objetivo

[ ACERINOX ]
Los analistas de Exane BNP Paribas mejoran el precio objetivo de Acerinox en un 29% a 11 euros por acción y también recomendación a "mejor que el mercado" desde "neutral".

A Bubble Induced Economy & The Wage Gap
Submitted by Tyler D.
02/14/2016 - 16:05

Debt is a temporary stop gap measure for politicians to kick the problem to a new generation; and worse still, all the new debt has done very little to rescue three decades of falling wages. Simply put, we are bumping up against the limits of both fiscal and monetary policy... and financial markets are just now realizing this.


Why Yellen's Testimony Screamed Danger
Submitted by Tyler D.
02/14/2016 - 14:55

In response to questions that took issue with the Fed paying banks on excess reserves The Chair seemed not only defensive, but rather perplexed, as to why they were even questioning it to begin with. This line of questioning in my view opened up, and brought to light, the Pandora’s box of Keynesian insight and thought processes now emanating from the Fed. In fact, we're quite sure Ms. Yellen herself didn’t realize just how far she threw the lid open.

[Fenix]

7:55

* Global shares rise as firmer Chinese yuan eases deflation fears (Reuters)
* Oil extends rally on prospects OPEC could act to counter low prices (Reuters)


Vigilando la situación económica americana

Análisis de Deutsche Bank
Lunes, 15 de Febrero del 2016 - 8:30:00

Actualmente la salud de la economía americana es la gran preocupación de los inversores, pues una recesión en este país supondría una recesión mundial. Tradicionalmente, un buen medidor de la situación económica futura del país es la pendiente de la curva de tipos de interés (diferencia entre la rentabilidad de los bonos a 10 años y el tipo oficial del banco central).

En general, cuando la pendiente de la curva se aplana, se suele interpretar que el crecimiento empieza a ralentizarse (se pensaría que hay una recesión cuando es negativa), mientras que cuando la pendiente sube, entonces es que la tendencia del crecimiento es positiva. Si miramos a EEUU, actualmente la pendiente es ligeramente positiva (120 pb), incluso pese a la fuerte caída de los tipos a 10 años durante este año (-70 pb.), si bien es cierto que cuando los tipos oficiales están muy bajos (por debajo del 1%), es muy difícil que la pendiente esté invertida, y sin embargo (como lamentablemente se ha demostrado en Japón), sí que puede producirse una recesión.

Desde que estalló la crisis financiera, han sido los bancos centrales los artífices de la recuperación, tanto económica como financiera. Primero bajando los tipos de interés oficiales a cerca de cero, posteriormente comprando deuda, y últimamente, situando los tipos de interés sobre el exceso de depósitos en el banco central en negativo. Durante los próximos meses, podríamos ver más bancos centrales uniéndose al club de los tipos negativos, con una creciente desconfianza sobre los efectos que a la postre tendrán estas medidas sobre la inflación y el crecimiento. Tampoco parece que vaya a tener mucho éxito como política cambiaria, al ser un movimiento tan compartido, los efectos sobre las divisas serían prácticamente nulos. Habrá que ver si Draghi de nuevo consigue sorprender al mercado con medidas innovadoras el próximo 10 de marzo.

De hecho, unos tipos tan bajos en toda la curva de tipos de interés suponen un problema para el sector bancario, al reducir los márgenes de los préstamos y a la vez penalizar a los depósitos (es muy difícil que los bancos trasladen a los depositantes estos tipos negativos). Esto es lo que más preocupa en este momento a los inversores. En Europa, la nueva Directiva de Resolución Bancaria colocará a los títulos de deuda Senior por debajo de los depositantes, lo que preocupa especialmente en los bancos que en el pasado han utilizado bonos para financiarse entre sus clientes retail. En EEUU, Citigroup o Bank of America dotaban considerables provisiones por créditos al sector energético, algo que (de forma exagerada) empieza a pesar también sobre los bancos europeos. Y a todo ello se suman las dudas sobre la banca italiana, una de las pocas que apenas ha avanzado en el proceso de saneamiento y consolidación. En resumen, mucha cautela en los mercados por el momento.

8:37 ¿Recorte de tipos en el Reino Unido?
Los economistas ven una probabilidad del 10%
Mark Carney, cuenta con el respaldo de los economistas de la City cuando insiste en que el próximo movimiento de las tasas de interés U.K. es más probable que sea al alza que a la baja.

Sólo hay una probabilidad del 10 por ciento de que el Banco de Inglaterra rebaje la tasa de referencia desde su récord mínimo del 0,5 por ciento, según la encuesta mensual de Bloomberg entre economistas. Sin embargo, existe una diferencia importante entre lo que cree que el mercado, cuyo mercado de futuros de tasas de interés está valorando una posibilidad de más del 60 por ciento.

9:11 "Cada vez hay más preocupación sobre la economía global"
Afirma Mario Draghi
Mario Draghi, presidente del BCE, ha declarado ante el Parlamento de la UE que cada vez hay más preocupación sobre la economía global. Añade:

- Los vientos en contra necesitarán una estrecha vigilancia.
- El deterioro de la confianza del mercado se ha acelerado.
- La zona euro están en buena posición para reducir los préstamos malos.

Recordemos que hay rumores sobre la posibilidad que el BCE compre "deuda mala" a los países miembros.

9:06 Rusia y la OPEP no está en conversaciones para recortar la producción
Un portavoz del gobierno ruso afirman que no están en conversaciones con la OPEP para recortar la producción, sino que están hablando con miembros particulares como Venezuela.

SocGen: "The Market, Today, Is Clearly Hoping The Authorities Will Step In"
Submitted by Tyler D.
02/15/2016 - 08:36

"With the introduction of negative rates and the subsequent rise in the Yen, are the Japanese authorities, once again, about to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory, as has happened so many times in the past? The market, today, is clearly hoping the authorities will step in.... whilst QE typically pushed investors out of bonds into riskier assets, negative interest rates could potentially do the exact opposite. "


Dow Soars 700 Points, Stalls At Wednesday's Highs
Submitted by Tyler D.
02/15/2016 - 09:12

OPEC rumors, crappy data, and no volume... the perfect recipe for USDJPY-driven hype-fueled stop-running in futures. The Dow just tagged last Wednesday's highs, and stalled, after running 700 points while hardly taking a breath.

[Fenix]

9:19 "El BCE está preparado para hacer su parte"
Afirma Mario Draghi
Mario Draghi, presidente del BCE, ha declarado que el Banco Central Europeo está preparado para hacer su parte.

"Como se anunció al final de la última reunión de poítica monetaria en enero, el Consejo de Gobierno revisará y orientará la política monetaria a principios de marzo. El foco de nuestras deliberaciones será doble. En primer lugar, vamos a examinar la evolución de la baja inflación. En segundo lugar, a la luz de las recientes turbulencias financieras, vamos a analizar el estado de transmisión de los impulsos monetarios por parte del sistema financiero, y en particular, por los bancos. Si cualquiera de estos dos factores implican riesgos a la baja para la estabilidad de precios, no dudaremos en actuar", afirma Draghi.

EUR Tumbles As Draghi Admits ECB Will "Buy" Busted Bank Loans
Submitted by Tyler D.
02/15/2016 - 10:24

EURUSD is down over 120 pips this morning and accelerating as Mario Draghi drops all kinds of tapebombs in his Q&A with his Brussels overlords. Most crucially, slamming EURUSD 70 pips and breaking Wednesday lows, was his admission that while The ECB would "not buy" non-performing Italian bank loans, it would (confirmed by Italy's Treasury) allow the busted deals as repo collateral (how close to par?) allowing Italian banks to kick the can just a little further.

No, Deutsche Bank Is Not Fixed
Submitted by Tyler D.
02/15/2016 - 11:37

Having bounced 22% off Thursday's lows, amid endless confidence-inspiring chatter (of buybacks, bailouts, bank CEO buys, and SWFs saving the day), Deutsche Bank closed lower on the day, tumbling over 6% from its opening highs as the reality of the credit markets continues to sink in.

The War On Paper Currency Begins: ECB Votes To "Scrap" 500 Euro Bill
Submitted by Tyler D.
02/15/2016 - 12:54

Not a bad way to launch a global ban on paper currency ahead of a global NIRP regime, and all, of course, in the name of fighting "tax evasion, financial crime, terrorism and corruption."

UAE Offers India Free Oil To Ease Storage Woes
Submitted by Tyler D.
02/15/2016 - 12:45

In an oil sector first, the oil-rich United Arab Emirates (UAE) has offered free oil to India in return for a storage deal at India’s planned underground facility as the supply glut worsens and some analysts predict that "peak storage" could sending prices crashing further.



Goldman Tells Clients To Short Gold 5 Days After Saying Gold May Soar "Much Higher Over Time"
Submitted by Tyler D.
02/15/2016 13:02 -0500

What a difference five days makes.

Recall last Wednesday evening, when none other than Goldman decided to be the latest to piggyback on gold's torrid momentum, by saing "there’s scope for the gold price to extend much higher over time." This is what Goldman's chartists predicted:

The current area includes the 100-wma and the trend across the highs since March ’14 (wedge resistance). It’s formed an exhaustive looking candlestick pattern and oscillators seems to be turning. Basically, it seems a good place to start a corrective pullback. The 100-wma in particular was an important pivot in determining the start of the late-’12 decline.

From a wave count perspective, the market is likely in the initial stages of a counter-trend ABC correction which could eventually retrace ~38.2% of the 5-waves from ’11 to 1,381. From a pure techs perspective, breaking from a declining wedge would initiate a medium-term target back at the start of the pattern ~1,392.

Bottom line, although 1,200-1,202 might hold in the near-term, there’s scope to extend much higher over time.

Initially, this troulbed us because whenever Goldman tells clients to do one thing, the firm is doing precisely the opposite. After all, this is the firm whose Top 5 of 6 trade recommendations for 2016 were stopped out at a loss for anyone who followed them 6 weeks into 2016 as we wrote in "Goldman Capitulates: Closes Out 5 Of Its 6 Top Trades For 2016 With A Loss."

How happy, then, we were, if very much unsurprised that less than a week later, as the gold momentum has been briefly snapped, that Goldman's head of commodities has decided to take the other side of Goldman's technical trade, and is now advising Goldman's repeatedly crucified muppets, pardon, clients to short gold. Just moments ago, this is what Goldman's head of commodities said:

As we maintain our view of rising US rates and hence lower gold prices with a 3-month target of $1100/toz and 12-month target of $1000/toz, we are recommending shorting gold through a GSCI-style rolling index. Ironically, gold has a negative yield and such a short would create a positive carry in a world concerned about negative interest rates that made gold rise in the first place. While we acknowledge that fears around systemic risks can push prices higher in the near term, we see such risks not offsetting the potential gain given how extreme pricing has become and the heavy data reporting period in coming weeks that will likely show that the while economic growth has slowed, it is not collapsing to the point to justify such extreme pricing across assets.

So "not collapsing" is the new "green shoots"? Got it. And then this:

We believe that the sharp rise in gold prices this past week was mostly due to concerns over systemic risks, particularly in the banking sector, given the sharp correlation of gold prices with bank stocks and other measures of systemic credit risks. While this is a continuation of a trend established since the beginning of the year that started with systemic concerns over oil and China, we believe that these new fears like the past fears are not justified. As our banks team argues, European banks, which are at the center of concerns over negative interest rates, can fund from the emergency funding facilities put in place in 2012 (the TLTRO remains barely used), money markets are open with no evidence of strain in either euro or dollar funding, while deposit growth is further adding to liquidity. All of this against a backdrop of higher capitalization aided by deleveraging suggests that a crisis re-run is unlikely.

That's funny: remember the last time Goldman was very bullish on banks? It was in November, when going long big US banks was Top Trade #5 of Goldman's 6 trades for 2016. This is what happened there:

Close long large cap US banks through the BKX Index relative to the S&P500 on 11 January 2016, opened on 19 November 2015 at 100, with a potential loss of 5.4%.

Don't worry though, this time Goldman will get it right, promise.

Sarcasm aside, what is more important is that Goldman is now telling its clients to short gold through Goldman. Translation: after a brief period in which Goldman was actually shorting gold when it was telling it clients to buy it, the firm which controls every central banks is once again actively buying every golden ounce, in paper or physical format, its clients have to sell.

Finally, we can't help but muse how right JPM's Marko Kolanovic was once again when just last week the JPM quant said to buy gold with the following amusing comment describing his clueless peers:

The second argument was that of Momentum: “if an asset was going down, it will keep on going down,” We have concluded that many of our competitors rely on momentum in their commodity forecasts (e.g., when oil is $150, they forecast $200; when it is $30, they forecast teens). This type of trend following can always be rationalized (e.g., oil will go down because it is very difficult to store it – so it has to be sold; and Metals will go down because it is very easy to store them – so production will not slow down). While a simple momentum prescription does work most of the time, the key is to assess the likelihood of market turning points during which one can lose years of profits in a matter of days (less painful for a sell-side analyst and more for an investor).

But it works miracles for a sell-side analyst, like Goldman for examples, who also happens to be a prop investor taking the other side of the trade its own analysts recommend.

[Fenix]

9:48 El BCE bajo su programa QE ha comprado ya 570.000 millones de euros en bonos soberanos de la zona euro.

A este respecto señalar que Mario Draghi ha declarado ante el parlamento europeo que la QE ha funcionado, y ha funcionado muy bien.

11:11 ¿A qué ratios se dan la vuelta los mercados bajistas?
Morgan Stanley ha analizado 43 mercados bajistas en la renta variable a nivel global. Esta semana publicaremos ese análisis pero hoy quisiéramos adelantar el nivel del ratio PER en el que esos mercados bajistas se dan la vuelta (tabla adjunta).

Vemos como en el mercado de renta variable global en promedio la tendencia bajista se da la vuelta con un PER 13,3x. En EE.UU. la renta variable se da la vuelta con un ratio 10,8x. En la renta variable europea con un PER 10,0. El Ibex 35 cotiza ahora con un ratio cercano a los 10 veces beneficio, es decir, el nivel que en Europa indica fin de la tendencia bajista.
10:19 Flash REPSOL parece una compra impresionante para este año entre 7-8€
Comprar a medio plazo

[ REPSOL ]
Por muchos motivos toda compra del valor en la zona de 7-8€ este año con vistas a vender en la zona de máximos de diciembre entre 12,4-13,25€ parece un buen trading a medio plazo. Lo que sí parece bastante claro según varios datos es que el precio está gestando un mínimo temporal muy importante en estos primeros meses entre los mínimos de 2012 y los mínimos de 2009

Recomendaríamos COMPRAR A MEDIO PLAZO en 7-8€ (abril?)

Eduardo Faus
Original de Renta 4 Banco


RELAPAC1 +1.59%

[Fenix]

¿Comienza un rebote de mayor entidad?

El Eurostoxx 50 inicia la semana con subidas por encima del 3%
Lunes, 15 de Febrero del 2016 - 11:43:47

Fuertes alzas al cierre de las bolsas europeas, en una jornada de escasez de referencias macro y condicionada por el cierre por festivo de Wall Street.

El Ibex 35 +3,6%. El CAC +3,0%. El Mibtel +3,2%. El FTSE +2,2%. En el mercado de deuda la rentabilidad de los bonos españoles caen 3 pbs a 1,711%. La rentabilidad de los italianos -4 pbs a 1,61%. La de los portugueses -18 pbs a 3,55%. La alemana -2 pbs a 0,239%. La griega -21 pbs a 11,31%

La jornada comenzaba con fuertes ascensos en las bolsas asiáticas, en promedio un 2,3%, a pesar de los datos macroeconómicos negativos -PIB trimestral Japón, débil consumo privado, balanza comercial en China. La cada vez mayor probabilidad de nuevas medidas de estímulo monetario en Japón, así como el buen cierre el viernes de las bolsas europeas y Wall Street, estaban detrás de estas subidas.

Las bolsas europeas se contagiaban de este buen tono y abrían la sesión con alzas por encima de los dos puntos porcentuales. El cierre de Wall Street y la ausencia de datos macroeconómicos de importancia permitían cierta tranquilidad en los mercados. Los inversores por fin tenían un día para poner todo en perspectiva después de las últimas jornadas de infarto.

Como decíamos, hoy no se publicaban datos macro de relevancia en Europa y en EE.UU. (festivo) a excepción de la balanza comercial de la euro zona en diciembre. Dato negativo que no tuvo efecto en el mercado.

Otro dato, o mejor dicho una posible filtración de ese dato, fue el que tuvo un mayor impacto en las bolsas europeas. Según fuentes cercanas el Banco Central Europeo estaría negociando con el gobierno italiano la posibilidad de comprar "deuda mala" del país o permitir que se utilice como garantía para obtener liquidez.

Este hecho de confirmarse, aparte de mostrar de nuevo el compromiso del BCE para la estabilidad financiera de la zona euro utilizando todas las medidas a su alcance, reduciría sensiblemente el riesgo sobre el sector bancario europeo, factor determinante de las últimas caídas de los mercados. El sector bancario ha tenido una sesión claramente alcista por un lado descontando parcialmente esta posibilidad, y por otro ante la fuerte cancelación de posiciones cortas. De cualquier forma habrá que esperar a que se confirme este extremo antes de hacer nuevas valoraciones.

Lo cierto es que las fuertes subidas hoy de los mercados europeos, recuperando importantes niveles técnicos, podrían ser la antesala de un rebote de mayor entidad en los próximos días/semanas. Renta 4 así lo cree y señala que los inversores han sido excesivamente negativos en un contexto en el que:

1) los últimos datos macroeconómicos han constatado que el ciclo económico global no está tan mal (aterrizaje suave en China, recuperación en Europa, crecimiento moderado en Estados Unidos),

2) la Fed se tomará con calma las subidas de tipos (el contexto internacional y una inflación inferior a la esperado van a permitir que la subida de tipos sea mucho más lenta y gradual que la indicada por la Fed el pasado mes diciembre) y

3) el apoyo de los bancos centrales (BCE, BoJ, BoE) con la expectativa de nuevos estímulos del BCE en marzo (¿QE corporativo, nueva rebaja del tipo de depósito, ampliación del plazo del programa de compras?) y el Banco Central de Suecia esta semana rebajando su tipo repo 15 pb hasta -0,5%, a la vez que se mostraba dispuesto a seguir tomando nuevas medidas expansivas en el futuro.

Asimismo, añaden estos analistas, cabe destacar que según las previsiones actuales del consenso, el Ibex cotiza a PER17e cercano a 10x vs mediana (20 años) de 13x, unas valoraciones atractivas si descartamos el escenario de recesión.

Por tanto, si descartáramos un escenario recesivo, que creemos que es el más probable, las bolsas europeas siguen siendo compra a estos niveles con una visión de largo plazo.

12:00 Idea de trading para la semana: Cortos en el euro/yen
Los traders de Barclays recomiendan posicionarse cortos en el par euro/yen. "Nuestra visión bajista fue animada por la ruptura de los 126. Esperamos una caída hacia el área de 125 en primer lugar, posteriormente un objetivo en los 122 y luego en los 118,75".

12:30 Sin cambios en las Carteras de Renta 4
Renta 4 Banco no ha realizado cambios en sus carteras recomendadas de modo que la de 5 Grandes sigue compuesta por Bankia (20%), IAG (20%), Santander (20%), Técnicas Reunidas (20%) y Telefónica (20%), y la Cartera Versátil: ACS (10%), Acerinox (10%), Arcelor Mittal (10%), Bankia (10%), BME (10%), DIA (10%), Ferrovial (10%), Repsol (10%), Santander (10%) y Técnicas Reunidas (10%).

La cartera Europea sigue constituida por: Antofagasta (10%), ASML (10%), Aperam (10%), Basf (10%), Deustche Post (10%), Dufry (10%), ING (10%), Novartis (10%), Phillips (10%) y Vodafone (10%).

En la cartera de Estados Unidos mantenemos: Amazon (10%), American Express (10%), Baxter International (10%), Boeing (10%), Colgate Palmolive (10%), Disney (10%), Mastercard (10%), Metlife (10%), Mead Johnson Nutrition, (10%) y Monsanto (10%).


13:10 ¿Caro o barato?
¡Menuda pregunta! Al final, podemos intentar responderla en términos absolutos…

Y relativos.No, no esperen esto último: las primas de riesgo relativas de bolsa frente a los tipos de interés superan los niveles razonables de los gráficos.

Lo llamativo de todo esto es que, en línea con las valoraciones absolutas, la infravaloración es mayor para los mercados emergentes frente a las bolsas desarrolladas. ¿Explica esto su mejor comportamiento relativo en los dos últimos meses?. Al final, podría tener sentido huir de posiciones absolutas en riesgo y sin embargo apostar por un mejor comportamiento relativo de las bolsas emergentes frente a las desarrolladas. Tanto si finalmente se materializa la recesión como, según nuestro escenario, si se puede evitar.

José Luis Martínez Campuzano
Estratega de Citi en España

13:30 Divisas: "Los Miembros de la Fed marcarán el ritmo"
Bankinter
Eurodólar (€/USD).- Semana de lateralidad o ligera depreciación del dólar donde lo más relevante no serán los datos macroeconómicos sino las declaraciones de diversos miembros de la sobre la economía estadounidense. En particular, las comparecencias de Bullard y Williams, ambas el jueves 18. Sin embargo, la macro más relevante será la Vta. de Viviendas Iniciadas y Prod. Industrial (miércoles), Ind. Adelantado y el IPC. Rango semanal estimado: 1,122/1,135.

Euroyen (€/JPY).- Las caídas del mercado han precipitado la apreciación de activos refugio como el Bund y el yen. La comparecencia de Yellen no fue suficiente para reducir la incertidumbre. Por extensión comienza a cuestionarse la efectividad de nuevas medidas del BoJ sobre la economía japonesa. Sin embargo, a pesar del fuerte retroceso del PIB 4T´15 (t/t anualizado) hasta -1,4% desde +1,3% anterior (revisado desde +1%) vs. -0,8% estimado, el yen se ha depreciado tímidamente. Esta tendencia suave debería continuar. Rango estimado semanal: 127,6/129,3

14:17 Priceline: nuestro punto de rotación se sitúa en 994
Trading Central
Nuestro punto de rotación se sitúa en 994.

Nuestra preferencia: rebote a corto plazo hacia el 1212.

Escenario alternativo: por debajo de 994, el riesgo es una caída hasta 921 y 878.

Técnicamente, el índice de fuerza relativa (RSI) se encuentra por debajo de su zona de neutralidad de 50. El indicador de convergencia/divergencia de medias móviles (MACD) se sitúa por encima de su línea de señal y es negativo.

Asimismo, la acción se sitúa por debajo de su media móvil de 20 y 50 días (se sitúa a 1061.35 y 1176.74 respectivamente).

14:32 Incluso tras las caídas en Europa, los analistas siguen siendo optimistas
Los inversores pueden estar sacando su dinero de las bolsas europeas al ritmo más rápido en meses, pero los estrategas mantienen su optimismo.

Después del desplome de casi todos los activos que la semana pasada arrastró a las acciones mundiales a un mercado bajista, los analistas todavía son optimistas y ven, en promedio, una subida del 23 por ciento a fin de año. Miremos a uno de los bancos de inversión más optimista en Europa, UBS, que incluso después de recortar su objetivo de fin de año espera todavía una subida del 28 por ciento.

"Nuestro objetivo estaba empezando a ser demasiado optimista", dijo Karen Olney, jefe de estrategia de renta variable UBS temática, quién estuvo detrás de la decisión del banco de reducir su estimación este mes a 400 desde 435. "Ahora estamos en una posición en la que el riesgo bajista es menos preocupante que el alcista. Los inversores pueden estar pasándolo mal, pero esto no va a seguir para siempre".

World Economic Climate Index Tumbles
Submitted by Tyler D.
02/15/2016 - 14:45

Global growth leading indicators are screaming it, Baltic Dry Index is screaming it, PMIs are screaming it, BRICS are living it, and now Ifo surveys are showing it: global economy is heading into a storm.


DeBeers Cartel Deathwatch: Russia Set To Flood Diamond Market With Firesale Of 167,500 Carats
Submitted by Tyler D.
02/15/2016 - 14:52

First it was the OPEC oil cartel which died a slow, painful, death. Now, another historic cartel may be on its last legs: the DeBeers diamond cartel, because according to Russian daily Izvestia, as part of Russia plan to combat its creeping budget deficit, Russia’s state minerals depository, Gokhran, will conduct two auctions on February 29 and March 10, in which it plans to sell as much as 167,500 carats of diamonds.

[Fenix]

Las 13 razones por las que preocuparse por los Bancos europeos

Carlos Montero
Lunes, 15 de Febrero del 2016 - 15:25:00

Las acciones de los bancos europeos se están desplomando por una combinación de varios temas. Casi todos se ven afectados por una amplia gama de preocupaciones; la mezcla exacta varía de un banco a otro, dependiendo de los clientes y los mercados a los que estén expuestos, su estructura de financiación y su modelo de negocio. Aquí están los 13 principales motivos que preocupan a los grandes inversores (vía The Telegraph):

1. Una desaceleración económica

El enfriamiento de la economía china, durante mucho tiempo el motor del crecimiento mundial, es una mala noticia para los bancos que tienen grandes operaciones en los mercados emergentes y/o, gran exposición a productos básicos.

Y la desaceleración de China tiene importantes efectos en Europa, sobre todo entre los exportadores alemanes.


2. Préstamos con riesgo

Poco después de la crisis financiera, los reguladores estadounidenses obligaron a sus bancos a hacer frente a los errores del pasado y rebajar el valor de los préstamos dudosos. Este proceso ha brillado por su ausencia en Europa.

Deutsche Bank, por ejemplo, cotiza a alrededor de un 30 por ciento su precio en libros. Esto demuestra una desconexión fundamental entre lo que piensa el banco que valen sus activos y la confianza del mercado en esa valoración.


3. Los bancos centrales

Los mercados están cada vez más preocupados por la falta de munición de los bancos centrales. Algunos traders culpan de la última oleada de ventas al Banco de Japón y su decisión de recortar los tipos de interés a territorio negativo. Decir que esto no tuvo el efecto estimulador deseado sería muy poco.


4. Bajos tipos de interés

Las decisiones de los bancos centrales están impactando negativamente en algunos prestamistas. Es muy difícil que los bancos ganen dinero cuando las tasas son tan bajas y aún más difícil cuando son negativas como sucede ahora en algunas partes de Europa.

Los prestamistas tienen que pagar para depositar fondos en los bancos centrales. Pocos están repercutiendo estos gastos a los clientes por temor a perder cuota a favor de sus rivales.


5. Los colchones de capital

Los bancos han realizado grandes esfuerzos para incrementar sus reservas de capital, que actúan como amortiguadores cuando/si empiezan a perder dinero. Pero tienen que recaudar más dinero con el fin de alcanzar los objetivos europeos en 2019.

Hay tres maneras de hacer esto: 1) aumentando los beneficios (no probable), 2) reduciendo los balances (no es fácil) o 3) pidiendo dinero a los accionistas (no es un movimiento inteligente con los precios de las acciones tan bajos). Si se cree que los bancos no van a alcanzar esos objetivos, los reguladores podrían obligarlos a dejar de pagar dividendos.



6. Regímenes de recapitalización

Los gobiernos quieren asegurarse de que los contribuyentes no van a pagar el rescate de los bancos. O, al menos, no hasta que los acreedores bancarios hayan sufrido también pérdidas. Por lo que se ha establecido una nueva jerarquía de inversores en función de los problemas que puede tener un banco.

Esto se vio durante la crisis bancaria de Chipre en 2011, cuando incluso algunos depositantes (que técnicamente están prestando dinero a su banco) sufrieron pérdidas. Algunos de los tenedores de bonos sénior del portugués Banco Novo tuvieron que sufrir pérdidas por el rescate del mes pasado.

Esto ha hecho que los inversores bancarios sean más conscientes de dónde ponen su dinero y ha provocado una fijación de precios más realista del riesgo de crédito bancario. Esto es muy necesario, pero también extremadamente incómodo.


7. CoCos

Hay poca duda de que algunos acreedores prestaron dinero a los bancos imprudentemente antes de la última crisis financiera en la creencia de que los gobiernos intervendrían si algo salía mal. Los bonos convertibles contingentes, que se convierten en acciones si los bancos entran en dificultades, son un intento de remediar este llamado "riesgo moral".

El problema es que la mayoría de las personas invierten en acciones o bonos, por lo que no hay muchos compradores naturales de Cocos, que no son ni chicha ni limonada. Esto significa que pueden perder valor muy rápidamente a la mínima impresión de estrés.


8. Regulación

Las nuevas reglas han hecho que muchas líneas de negocio no sean rentable. Sin embargo, muchos bancos se han quedado con ellas con la esperanza de que sus rivales se den por vencidos y ganar cuota de mercado. Ninguno de los bancos europeos parpadeó durante años; Ahora todos ellos huyen.


9. Reestructuración

Los bancos que finalmente despertaron y decidieron que no pueden hacer de todo para todas las personas, están cerrando divisiones no rentables y reestructurándose. Esa es una buena noticia. Pero no es fácil ni barato.


10. Gastos por litigios

Los bancos todavía están siendo multados por malas prácticas pasadas. ¿Cuándo terminará esto? Nadie lo sabe.


11. Un futuro incierto

Los bancos han trazado su camino a la rentabilidad y aumentar su capital hace algunos años. Pero del dicho al hecho hay mucho trecho. Una gran recesión mundial, un escándalo financiero, un éxodo masivo de los gestores, o cualquier otro problema no previsto podrían hacer que fracasaran sus planes.


12. Profecías autocumplidas

La banca se basa en la confianza. Pueden decirle a la gente que no tienen problemas hasta que el agua les llega al cuello. Pero si los acreedores están preocupados por la solvencia de un banco, van a dejar de prestarles dinero. Entonces, de repente, el banco se volverá insolvente.


13. Contagio

Los bancos están vinculados entre sí porque se prestan dinero entre ellos. Así, los inversores temen que, si un banco cae podría arrastrar a otros con él. El sistema financiero se asemeja a una red gigante.

El miedo se propaga rápidamente.

Carlos Montero
Lacartadelabolsa


Riesgo sistémico

Lunes, 15 de Febrero del 2016 - 15:52:00

Al final, los inversores, expulsados del mercado por la incertidumbre y la inestabilidad (se puede vivir en un escenario dominado por la incertidumbre; con un escenario de incertidumbre e inestabilidad todo es mucho más difícil), liquidan posiciones. ¿Y qué venden?

Aquello que sea más líquido (la liquidez ha sufrido en esta nueva fase de la Crisis), que tenga con rentabilidad positiva aún (o menos negativa) y especialmente aquello que sea considerado más arriesgado. En este último factor se incluye la percepción de riesgo sistémico.

Las autoridades económicas mundiales se han enfocado en los últimos años en prevenir riesgos sistémicos en la banca. ¿Cómo? Pidiendo más liquidez y capital a aquellas entidades con el tamaño suficiente para provocar una nueva crisis financiera mundial. Y en mi opinión han tenido un relativo éxito: la regulación y supervisión funcionan, aunque con un coste evidente de restar liquidez al mercado. Y esto es especialmente evidente en situaciones de incertidumbre como la actual. Pero, antes me refería a un éxito relativo. Relativo, como estamos viendo en estos momentos, cuando vemos como el mercado vuelve a golpear al sector financiero de forma uniforme a nivel mundial. Una importante entidad financiera europea con carácter sistémico ha estado en el centro del debate, aunque sinceramente no creo que ahora se esté temiendo que su potencial (más que improbable en mi opinión) caída se lleve por delante a buena parte del sector. Entonces, ¿por qué al castigo generalizado a la banca?. Si su respuesta es que, al final, es un problema europeo deben observar el comportamiento no muy alentador del resto del sector en USA y Asia por ejemplo. Por otro lado, pueden considerar que por su carácter cíclico la banca presenta un beta elevado y por tanto es más susceptible de ventas ante el riesgo de recesión mundial. Aunque, por último, no deben olvidar el nuevo debate sobre el coste en rentabilidad (y supervivencia a la larga) para el sector financiero de la combinación de medidas monetarias extremas desde los bancos centrales (como tipos de interés negativos) y la extrema regulación. En definitiva, bajo la prioridad de prevenir más crisis originadas por excesos del sector no sólo estamos alimentando crisis de liquidez en los mercados como realmente estamos condenando a las entidades a un proceso de consolidación no tanto con el objetivo de originar valor si no de supervivencia pura y dura.


Sinceramente, en mi opinión, los tipos de interés nulos o incluso negativos han llegado para quedarse durante un largo periodo de tiempo. Es lo que hay. Simplemente hay que aceptarlo, como de hecho vimos que lo aceptaba la propia Presidenta de la Fed cuando reconocía la semana pasada que estaban estudiando los tipos de interés negativos en Europa. Estudiarlos no significa aplicarlos, al menos a corto plazo. Pero sí entender sus implicaciones, de los aplicados por otros bancos centrales (la posible fortaleza del USD) y distorsiones en la valoración de activos (curvas de tipos planas con rentabilidades a la baja). ¿Cómo luchar en este caso contra el riesgo sistémico de un mercado ilíquido, poco profundo y con precios distorsionados? Son los bancos centrales los únicos que pueden hacerlo. Pero, también, su labor debe ser reforzada por una mayor transparencia y estrategias claras a medio y largo plazo tanto desde las autoridades económicas como desde el sector financiero.

Con todo, sigo pensando que el papel de los bancos centrales es clave para evitar que la Gestión del riesgo no se convierta en si misma en una nueva crisis de los mercados. Y crisis financiera. Me responderán que la solución a los problemas no está en sus manos. Y que de hecho, parte de los problemas (de rentabilidad) de la banca tienen su origen en las medidas extremas de política monetaria. No se lo negare, aunque también es cierto que los bancos centrales tienen que priorizar por encima de todo la estabilidad financiera. Y esto les llevará, por otro lado, a instrumentar otras medidas que puedan mitigar su coste. No, no me refiero a las medidas macroprudenciales para combatir excesos derivados de unas condiciones financieras demasiado laxas durante demasiado tiempo. En el caso de la banca, y pensando en el ECB, es importante que desarrolle completamente su papel de supervisor único. Y como tal, transmita su credibilidad al sector. Naturalmente, siendo veraz en sus valoraciones y forzando respuestas a las posibles entidades con problemas.

José Luis Martínez Campuzano
Estratega de Citi en España

Kyle Bass Is Dead Wrong About Chinese Banks Says Chinese Bank
Submitted by Tyler D.
02/15/2016 - 15:01

As the eyes of the financial world shift towards what may be some very serious problems in China's mammoth banking system, one analysts says fears about an imminent meltdown are overblown. Meanwhile, NPLs just hit their highest level since Q3 of 2006.

Obama Starts Mid-East Nuke Race As Israel Says Gulf States Pursuing Bombs
Submitted by Tyler D.
02/15/2016 - 15:15

"We see signs that countries in the Arab world are preparing to acquire nuclear weapons, that they are not willing to sit quietly with Iran on brink of a nuclear or atomic bomb."

[Fenix]

The Inevitability Of Dramatic Inflation
02/15/2016 16:45 -0500
Submitted by Jeff Thomas

No one is very concerned about inflation right now and that’s understandable.

Although inflation exists in some sectors of the economy, the present subject of discussion is deflation. Any depression is inherently deflationary since spending is curtailed, which drives prices down.

Since 2008, despite all the fudged reports emanating from governments, much of the world has been in a depression since 2008 and remains in one. This will continue until such time as there is a true cleansing of the system – a step the leaders of each jurisdiction have avoided as much as possible, choosing instead to extend the party as long as possible before the inevitable collapse occurs.

Since deflation is the problem that’s staring us in the face now, most economic discussion deals with it. But, historically, when deflation occurs, governments do everything they can do reverse the problem and return to inflation.

To the average person, one type of ‘flation is as bad as another type of ‘flation – he merely hopes for economic stability. And so the effort by governments to not only accept inflation but to recommend its existence as policy seems odd. But then, governments (and banks) benefit from inflation.

People can only be taxed so much before they rebel, but inflation acts as a hidden tax and most people don’t recognise that it’s not the number of currency units one possesses that matters, but what level of purchasing power they have. Inflation allows the individual to retain his currency notes, but devalues them so they buy him less in goods and services. Inflation is the unperceived tax.

The US Federal Reserve has done a sterling job of exacting wealth from US citizens. Since it was created in 1913, it has devalued the dollar by roughly 97% and the dollar is now due for replacement.

Through the creation of tremendous debt, the US, EU, and many other countries have created a condition that will result in deflation – the very condition that they most dread. There can be no question that they will do whatever it takes to reverse this trend and return to inflation. Indeed, this is their stated policy. Former Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke is famous for his 2002 speech in which he said he would dump currency from helicopters if necessary when deflation occurred. Since that date, he has reconfirmed his commitment nearly every year, as has his successor, so there can be little doubt as to what the Fed will do to address deflation.

Add to this the fact that the stock and bond markets are in bubbles of historic proportions, assuring the inevitability of crashes in the near future – events that will contribute greatly to deflation.

But, given the choice, wouldn’t we all prefer a bit of inflation to deflation? Yes, in this we would agree with the Fed and the ECB, but worse than either of these possibilities is that green-eyed monster – hyperinflation. At present, we feel we’re so far away from this possibility that, for most people, it’s not even a question. Trouble is, hyperinflation, when it comes, comes very fast and is uncontrollable.

So, how does it happen?

Hyperinflation never occurs spontaneously. It always happens in essentially the same way when governments attempt to artificially manipulate currency. It has occurred on more than twenty occasions around the world in the last hundred years. The most recent occurrence is currently underway in Venezuela.

But a textbook example was the Weimar hyperinflation of 1922–1923. In that instance, the government, along with the central bank of Germany, was facing a collapsing economy, so they did the worst thing possible – they expanded the creation of currency in the belief that if people had more of the stuff, they would spend more and the economy would boom. Unfortunately, the money creation only resulted in rising prices, not greater wealth (True wealth is only created through the creation of more goods and services). So, they printed more. Then more again, and again, and again. With each printing, the problem worsened and the bankers and political leaders reasoned that if they could only print enough, the problem would be solved. It’s important to note that at no time did anyone (not the government, nor the banks, nor private industry, nor the unions) suggest that the printing itself was the problem.

Eventually, inflation became so dramatic that the German people realised that they were better off dumping reichsmarks in favour of goods. As soon as workers were paid, they’d buy anything – food, clothing, anything that wasn’t going up in price as rapidly as the reichsmark was going down.

It is at this point that inflation becomes hyperinflation. It’s never intended by anyone (least of all, governments) to occur but, once the population begins to think of money as something to get rid of instead of something to possess, the monster is born and it happens so quickly that a hamburger that costs $5 today may cost $50 three months later, $500 after a further month, and $5,000 the following week. Soon, a hamburger costs (quite literally) millions.

As hard as this is to imagine, this is what occurs in every case. And in every case, it culminates in a collapse of the monetary system. It’s generally accompanied by a collapse in commerce, riots, food shortages, and famine.

And so, of course, we hope that this time around the leaders of the US, EU, et al, will do the right thing and avoid this eventuality at all costs. Surely, the highly educated folks at the Fed and the ECB will learn from the mistakes of past leaders and not repeat the disastrous mistakes. Hopefully, this time it will be different.

And actually, this time it will be different, but not in the way we would hope. Rather than wait for the crashes and subsequent significant deflation to occur, the Fed and the ECB have already announced a plan to introduce negative interest rates. They describe this plan as being intended to discourage saving and force people to buy goods, causing the economy to boom...just as in Weimar Germany almost one hundred years ago.

But, as discussed above, this is never the outcome. Once a population discovers that dumping currency is preferable to holding it, the green-eyed monster comes knocking.

So, are we around the corner from hyperinflation? No, I believe we have a little breathing time before that, but we’ll be spending that time dealing with the market crashes and deflation that generally come first (unless the leaders decide to pre-empt them by introducing negative interest rates very soon, which they may well do).

Well then, if hyperinflation is not yet a certainty, nor is it necessarily right around the corner, why bother thinking about it?

The reason is that the triggering mechanism of hyperinflation is to be presented to us on a platter in the relatively near future. Its likelihood is now great enough that if we don’t prepare our lives for its eventuality, we’ll be amongst the casualties.

If the German people could have known in 1922 what was coming in 1923, many could have saved their skins. Today, those who choose to internationalise their wealth (however large or small) and even themselves in anticipation of events will have the greatest insulation against the effects of hyperinflation. They have the greatest likelihood to not only survive, but thrive, as the world changes.

Editor’s Note: Negative interest rates are an obvious sign of desperation.

Central bankers are playing with fire and inviting a currency catastrophe, just like they have done so many times in the past.

The sad truth is most people have no idea what really happens when a currency collapses, let alone how to prepare…

Months After Welcoming 100,000 Refugees To The U.S. John Kerry Warns Migrants Pose An "Existential Threat" To Europe
Submitted by Tyler D.
02/15/2016 - 16:24

We find it ironic that the person now warning about refugees posing "a near existential threat" to an entire continent, was just five months ago so very eager to welcome 100,000 Syrian refugees to the US. We wonder if his policy on accepting those same refugees with open arms has changed as of this moment... and who gets to profit this time?

[Fenix]

Finally, China’s Alan Greenspan Speaks Out
02/15/2016 17:12 -0500
Submitted by PandaHedge

Finally, China’s Alan Greenspan speaks out

Finally, China’s Alan Greenspan, Mr. Zhou Xiaochuan speaks out in an interview with Caixin Magzine. The market has been waiting for his comment on Yuan since the RMB exchange rate reform in Aug 2015. However, he has been hiding and did not “give a clear message” as asked by IMF chief Lagarde. Just before the lunar new year holiday, even the Chinese local media started to ask him to show up, which is really unusual in China. And last Friday, Caixin published its 12000 words interview with Mr. Zhou Xiaochuan. This is the most important interview for China’s economy and Yuan in 2016. I translate the key Q&A points as below and add my comment in blue:

* How do you see China’s GDP slowing and hard landing potential?

1. In 2009 and 2010, China contributes more than 50% of global GDP growth while its GDP only accounts for less than 10% of global GDP. We must realize that’s unusual situation in an unusual period of time. Now China still contributes around 25% of global GDP growth, so it’s unfair to say China is hard landing;
2. A country’s currency has no strong relationship with the GDP or GDP growth. Actually current account is the most important factor, and China still has high current account surplus in 2015 (goods trades surplus stands at record high $600B). In addition, China’s CPI is only 1.4%, which is good for stable exchange rate

* Which international factors are important to RMB exchange rate?

1. Yuan has been following US dollar to appreciate with other currencies (such as Euro and Yen) in the last two years. The market believes Yuan has to “catch up with other currencies” to depreciate.

On surface it’s a USD appreciation story, but the reality is ECB and BOJ’s “currency war”. The downside potential for Yuan would be much lower in USD terms if DXY starts to depreciate, as the Fed may have to cut the rate and even pushes for QE4. That’s one of the reasons why I don’t buy in the “big collapse of Yuan” argument. Yuan will depreciate over time but not act like a collapse.

2.The change of US Fed’s policy in 2013 and 2014 has made huge impact to other EM countries but not too much impact to China. However, the Fed’s interest raise in Dec 2015 is a huge shock to China.

Since Bernanke announced the end of QE3, USD’s negative impact to RMB already started. PBOC underestimated the power of USD’s appreciation (or how “easy” are ECB and BOJ). But now, PBOC implies that Fed’s raise is “policy error” and it would not tolerate a further appreciation of USD.

3. There are a lot of speculative funds shorting China recently. As the central bank of China, we have confidence of China’s economy, but we also need patience as we have to wait for the data speaking for themselves continuously. However, for those speculative funds who already made the bet, they are trying to make profit as soon as possible, and that’s why they spread out rumors and create noises in the market.

Yes, that’s how the “$200B decline of foreign reserve in Jan 2016” rumor begins. PBOC has come out an approach to fight with those speculative funds: increase the volatility of CNH and CNY to increase short sellers’ cost.

4. Since 2008, global central banks have adopted easing monetary policies which have boost asset bubbles around the world. The asset price need to adjust, and the process is painful. Everyone tries to find someone to blame for, and they pick China as the unlucky one.

Chinese government and PBOC are already sick of being accused because everyone points China as the major reason of global sluggish growth.

5. In general, when people analyze the depreciation of RMB to USD, they should consider the appreciation of USD to other currencies and short term market sentiment. People may worry that China will join the “currency war” to improve export. However, as the net export already contribute a significant part to GDP, we don’t need to depreciate RMB to boost export. In addition, China imports more commodity in terms of volume (although the value drops because of lower prices), so it’s unfair to say the commodity bear market is driven by lower China demand.

PBOC tries to avoid using the word “currency war”. However, as the world’s NO.2 economy, it’s inevitable that RMB will have impact to other countries’ economy. PBOC should consider Yuan’s future with a global view as the value of currency is the power balance between countries.

* Does PBOC has estimation of the size of “hot money”

1. There’s no clear definition of “hot money”. The speculative money (aka hot money) is not the major force to impact the balance of payment. The major speculative money plays their game-s in the offshore market, but their behavior will have negative influence on the onshore market sentiment;
2. Export companies are influenced by this kind of depreciation expectation, and thus adjust their FX strategy and operation (such as buying foreign currencies in advance). However, as they eventually need to pay the expense and cost through Yuan, this kind of adjustment will end pretty soon.
3. Local Chinese companies may adjust their foreign debt with the depreciation expectation. Their foreign debt balance is around USD 800B at the end of 2014. Right now it’s easy for them to get cheap RMB debt to replace the foreign debt, and it’s their own decision to make it or not. This kind of adjustment will see a bottom soon.

There are three reasons behind the capital outflow since 2014: a. domestic corporates and residences increase holding of foreign assets; b. corporates pay down USD debt; c. speculative funds. The major reason is the first one, so it’s “internal problem”. PBOC is comfortable to let Chinese residences to keep foreign currencies on their hands, just like China let residences hold gold by themselves. PBOC seems confident that corporate and individuals will adjust their behavior when the Yuan return to relatively stable stage.

* Will PBOC reinforce capital control?

1. We hope the process of RMB internationalization will move smoothly. However, it is a back and forth process in reality. When the speculative funds become a major issue and the FX is volatile, we may hold off the internationalization process and focus our power to handle them. When the FX markets come back to stable stage, then we will continue to push the internationalization of RMB.

This is PBOC’s bottom line. To protect the domestic economy, it’s possible to delay the process of RMB internationalization. For example, PBOC may delay loosening its capital account. I believe it’s an appropriate approach after we see the incompetent policies in A share market pushed by China’s financial officials. It’s hard to believe these officials have ability to control a potential currency chaos after the capital account is opened, especially when China’s economy still would experience restructuring in the next couple year. The right way is to set up a more comprehensive financial system and resolve China’s own economy problems (such as overcapacity and overleveraged) before PBOC let Yuan become a free circulated currency

2. We have tightened the control of foreign currency exchange with the aim to ban the illegal fund transfers such as money laundering and fake merchandise trades. For legal and normal request of currency exchange, we always will meet their needs.

PBOC is not stupid. The biggest power to consume China’s foreign reserve is the domestic corporations and residences. If PBOC bans their normal needs of foreign currencies, they will have stronger depreciation expectation and accelerate the pace of capital outflow

3. Financial market is different than the real economy, as confidence plays a very important role in the former one. Speculative funds spread rumors to help their trade. For example, there’s rumor that the foreign companies cannot transfer their earning out of China. It’s actually a current account item but not a capital account item, so there’s no way SAFE will block this kind of action. Even for capital account items, companies are able to get foreign exchange as long as they follow the rules.

Honestly, I don’t think any hedge funds in the world has the power to fight with PBOC. The size difference is so huge, and I think the smart hedgies understand this well. So they leverage market sentiment to put pressure on Yuan. Actually, the Yuan is not their main battle field. The size and liquidity of Yuan is so small, and the hedgies are easily squeezed by PBOC. The smart hedgies actually target other weaker countries who compete with China in the global export market. As the expectation of Yuan depreciation rises, those competitors’ currencies will see more pressure, and their central banks have much weaker power than PBOC to defend their currencies.

4. Capital control does not work in an open economy. In addition, it is more effective to control capital inflow rather than capital outflow. China is a big open economy and relies on international trades more than other major economies. Every year, China has around $4trn trade transactions which involve more than one million companies. China also has around 100 million outbound travelers now. Therefore, any improper capital will have negative impact on confidence and balance of payment.

* Many people have concerns about the decline of foreign reserve. How PBOC views and handles the speculative funds?

1. It’s difficult to differentiate between speculative funds and normal risk management transactions. China has the biggest foreign reserve in the world, and we would not let speculative funds lead the market sentiment. As long as China’s fundamentals have no big issues, foreign reserve will not be a problem even the balance will vary from time to time.
2. Although we will not let speculative funds lead the market sentiment, it does not mean we will fight with them face to face. We have to consider how to use our reserve more effectively and find a lowest cost approach. The RMB exchange reform enables us to handle the speculative funds with more flexibility as we do not focus on USD only anymore.

* What will be the direction and pace of RMB exchange rate regime reform going forward?

1. We will continue the RMB exchange rate regime reform in the next five years. The direction is to build an effective floating exchange rate mechanism which is based on market’s supply/demand and refers to a basket of currencies (not only focus on USD).

A reasonable expectation for internationalization of RMB is at least five years.

2.We emphasize the importance of market’s supply and demand of RMB. Although there are some speculative funds participating the FX market, we still need to respect the market. We don’t have a model to come out a perfect exchange rate for RMB. We like to keep the RMB in a relatively stable stage which is close to reasonable balanced level

3. Referring to a basket of currencies is an inevitable process to RMB as China has so many trade partners. We did not do a good job before as RMB focus too much on USD. In the future we will rely more on reference to a basket of currencies. The result of this direction is that RMB will be relatively stable to a basket of currencies but become more volatile to USD.

The market was used to a stable appreciation path of RMB to USD. PBOC tries to break this kind of expectation and push the volatility higher. It’s a normal case for major currencies in the world, so I don’t think the market should panic about this. Higher volatility also means higher cost for short sellers.

* How PBOC can improve its communication with the market?

1. The current financial market has many uncertain factors and participants hope the central banks will come out to comfort them. However, central banks are not God. Therefore sometimes we have to say: ”wait a minute, we need more data”
2. For forward guidance, we have to consider couple issues: Whether central banks have better information than the market? Whether central banks have a better forecast model than the market? If central banks themselves cannot align opinions internally, whether the forward guidance really can relive the markets’ concerns?
3. Central banks should have different communication strategies to various market participants. We would not told our action plan to the speculative funds, but we will deliver reasonable expectation to the organizations (such as merchandise traders) which need to use foreign currencies in their normal business transactions.

PBOC should improve its communication to the market. Central bank should work as a manual of economy, and the market can read through the manual to make their own judgement. The manual should be designed as simple, clear and easy to read, otherwise the market has to guess and may misunderstand central banks.

[Fenix]

Turkey Vows "Harshest Reaction" To Kurdish Advance In Syria As Missiles Hit Hospitals, School
Submitted by Tyler D.
02/15/2016 - 17:14

“YPG elements were forced away from around Azaz. If they approach again they will see the harshest reaction. We will not allow Azaz to fall.”



Here's Why (And How) The Government Will "Borrow" Your Retirement Savings
02/15/2016 17:45 -0500
Submitted by Simon Black

According to financial research firm ICI, total retirement assets in the Land of the Free now exceed $23 trillion.

$7.3 trillion of that is held in Individual Retirement Accounts (IRAs).
That’s an appetizing figure, especially for a government that just passed $19 trillion in debt and is in pressing need of new funding sources.

Even when you account for all federal assets (like national parks and aircraft carriers), the government’s “net financial position” according to its own accounting is negative $17.7 trillion.

And that number doesn’t include unfunded Social Security entitlements, which the government estimates is another $42 trillion.

The US national debt has increased by roughly $1 trillion annually over the past several years.

The Federal Reserve has conjured an astonishing amount of money out of thin air in order to buy a big chunk of that debt.

But even the Fed has limitations. According to its own weekly financial statement, the Fed’s solvency is at precariously low levels (with a capital base of just 0.8% of assets).

And on a mark-to-market basis, the Fed is already insolvent. So it’s foolish to think they can continue to print money forever and bail out the government without consequence.

The Chinese (and other foreigners) own a big slice of US debt as well.

But it’s just as foolish to expect them to continue bailing out America, especially when they have such large economic problems at home.

US taxpayers own the largest share of the debt, mostly through various trust funds of Social Security and Medicare.

But again, given the $42 trillion funding gap in these programs, it’s mathematically impossible for Social Security to continue funding the national debt.

This reality puts the US government in rough spot.

It’s not like government spending is going down anytime soon; it already takes nearly 100% of tax revenue just to pay mandatory entitlements like Social Security, and interest on the debt.

Plus the government itself estimates that the national debt will hit $30 trillion within ten years.

Bottom line, they need more money. Lots of it. And there is perhaps no easier pool of cash to ‘borrow’ than Americans’ retirement savings.

$7.3 trillion in US IRA accounts is too large for them to ignore.

And if you think it’s inconceivable for the government to borrow your retirement savings, just consider the following:

1) Borrowing retirement funds is becoming a popular tactic.



Forced loans have been a common tactic of bankrupt governments throughout history.



Plus there’s recent precedent all over the world; Hungary, France, Ireland, and Poland are among many governments that have resorted to ‘borrowing’ public and private pension funds.



2) The US government has already done this with federal pension funds.



During the multiple debt ceiling fiascos since 2011, the Treasury Department resorted to “extraordinary measures” at least twice in order to continue funding the government.



What exactly were these extraordinary measures?



They dipped into federal retirement funds and borrowed what they needed to tide them over.



In fact, the debt ceiling debacles were only resolved because the Treasury Department had fully depleted available retirement funds.



3) They’ve been paving the way to borrow your retirement savings for a long time.



Two years ago the government launched a new initiative to ‘help Americans save for retirement.’



It’s called MyRA. And the idea is for people to invest retirement savings ‘in the safety and security of US government bonds’.



Since then they’ve gone on a marketing offensive involving the President, Treasury Secretary, and other prominent politicians.



(Most recently Nancy Pelosi published an Op-Ed in the San Francisco Chronicle a few days ago promoting the program.)



They’ve also proposed a number of legislative reforms to ‘encourage’ American businesses to sign their employees up for MyRA.



Just last week, Congress introduced the “Making Your Retirement Accessible”, or MyRA Act, which would charge a penalty to employers whose workers don’t have a retirement account.



The proposed penalty is $100. Per worker. Per day.



Imagine a small business with, say, 10 employees who don’t have retirement accounts. The penalty to Uncle Sam would be a whopping $30,000 PER MONTH.



There’s a word for this. It’s called extortion.



Obviously when facing a $30,000 monthly penalty, an employer will pick the easiest option.



Given the absurd amount of government regulation on the rest of the financial industry, MyRA is the fastest choice.

This isn’t about fear or paranoia. It’s about facts.

And the reality is that the government in the Land of the Free is moving in the direction of borrowing more and more of your retirement savings.

If you still remain skeptical, remember that last year the government stole more from its citizens through Civil Asset Forfeiture than thieves in the private sector.

Or that just 45-days ago a new law went into effect authorizing the government to strip you of your passport if they believe in their sole discretion that you owe them too much tax.

No judge. No jury. No trial. They just confiscate your passport.

This is happening. It’s a reality that rational, thinking people should plan for.

And yes, there are solutions for now.

For example, it’s possible to set up a more robust retirement structure that protects your savings and gives you much greater influence over your funds.

This is something that may make sense no matter what; it may be a good idea regardless to do some long-term financial planning that increases your influence over your own retirement savings and expands your investment options.

[Fenix]

Why Tomorrow's "Secret" Meeting Between Russian, Saudi Oil Ministers Will Not Lead To A Cut In Production
Submitted by Tyler D.
02/15/2016 18:13 -0500

For the past two weeks recurring flashing red headlines of an agreement, or at least a meeting, between Russia and Saudi Arabia - the world's two largest oil producers - have led to aggressive short-covering rallies in oil on just as recurring hopes that the Saudi strategy of flooding the market with excess supply (by its own calculations as much as 3 million barrels daily) adopted during the 2014 Thanksgiving Day OPEC meeting, will come to an end.

Tomorrow this endless "headline hockey" will come to an end, following what is now a confirmed "secret" meeting between the two oil superpowers when, as Bloomberg reports, Saudi Arabia’s oil minister will meet with his Russian counterpart in Doha on Tuesday "to discuss the oil market."

According to Bloomberg, Ali al-Naimi, the most senior oil official of the world’s biggest crude exporter, will speak with Russia’s Alexander Novak in the Qatari capital, "according to the person, who asked not to be identified because the talks are private." The person didn’t say what the agenda of the meeting will be, which will also be attended by the kingdom’s fellow OPEC member Venezuela. The energy ministries of Russia and Saudi Arabia declined to comment.

Going into the meeting, one thing is certain: over the past 15 months Saudi Arabia has never once indicated any interest in curtailing production: after all, that would go against its unstated directive of putting marginal oil producers, read US shale companies, out of business:

Saudi Arabia has insisted that it won’t reduce production to tackle the global oil glut unless major producers outside the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries co-operate. While Novak has said he could consider output cuts if other producers joined in, Igor Sechin, chief executive officer of the country’s largest oil company Rosneft OJSC, said last week he would defend traditional markets and expressed doubts over coordinated action.

To be sure, the Saudis have felt the pain from collapsing oil prices resulting in a record budget deficit, accelerating austerity at home, and the alleged liquidation of Saudi FX reserves, including European financial stocks and potentially US and other sovereign bonds. The market has gone as far as pricing in a very high probability of a Saudi Riyal devaluation as expressed by the currency's forward market as observed here previously.

It is this "pain" that has made the market doubt Saudi's steadfastness in sticking to its excess production plan: "the slightest signs of an accord have roiled oil markets. West Texas Intermediate futures rallied 12 percent on Feb. 12, the biggest surge since 2009, after the United Arab Emirates reiterated OPEC’s long-held position that the group is prepared to engage with non-members."

But even if the Saudis are receptive to some token compromise, Russia itself may be unable to cut production. As Bloomberg writes in a separate piece, "neither a recession nor a collapse in revenue has yet been enough to convince Russian President Vladimir Putin that it’s time to join with OPEC in cutting oil output to boost prices. His reasons may be pragmatic rather than political."

As Russia’s oil minister meets his Saudi Arabian counterpart in Doha on Tuesday, the world’s second-largest crude producer faces numerous obstacles in cooperating on such a deal even if Putin decides it’s in the national interest. Reducing the flow of crude might damage Russia’s fields and pipelines, require expensive new storage tanks or simply take too long.

To be sure, the jawboning on Russia's side has been quite loud: energy minister Alexander Novak has said he could consider reductions if other producers joined in. Igor Sechin, chief executive officer of the country’s largest oil company Rosneft OJSC and a close Putin ally, said last week in London that coordination would be difficult because no major producer seems willing to pare output.

Still, many are skeptical that just like in the case of Mario Draghi, talk will escalate into actions: "The history of relations with OPEC suggests that Russian companies are not keen to cut production," James Henderson, an oil and gas industry analyst at the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies, said by phone. "There are certain practical difficulties, and the companies would rather somebody else did that, and they could benefit once the price goes up."

Here are some of the all too practical challenges facing Russia should it indeed plan to cut production:

In Siberia, Russia’s main oil province, winter temperatures can go below minus 40 degrees Celsius (minus 40 Fahrenheit). That’s a challenge for anyone thinking of turning off the taps.



The oil and gas that flows from wells always contains water, so once pumping stops, pipes may freeze, Mikhail Pshenitsyn, who has worked for more than 10 years in the Russian oil industry, said by e-mail. The problem goes away in summer, but there’s still the risk of a long-term reduction in output because a halted reservoir can become polluted with salts and residues, he said. Production from a shut-in well might never be restored in full, Maxim Nechaev, director for Russia at consulting firm IHS Inc., said by phone.

Furthermore, Russia is running into a problem that is facing both the U.S. and China: running out of land-based storage space:

Russia could reduce exports to global markets without cutting production simply by putting more crude into long-term storage. Trouble is, the country has too few facilities.



The bulk of onshore storage capacity in Russia is owned by pipeline company AK Transneft OAO and already in full use to ensure steady flows to refineries and ports, Vladimir Feigin, head of the Moscow-based Institute for Energy and Finance, said by phone. Building the massive new reservoirs required to store a significant proportion of production for an extended period would cost billions of dollars and couldn’t be done quickly, he said.

Additionally, unlike the U.S., Russia has little offshore storage: while crude can be stored in vessels moored just offshore, Russia has "only seven tankers -- four products and three crude -- in floating storage,” Antonia Mitsana, marketing manager at London-based Drewry Maritime Advisors, said by e-mail. Their total capacity is just over 643,000 metric tons, according to Drewry, or about 0.1 percent of the nation’s production last year."

And while chartering foreign vessels to store significantly more oil could be done, it would be very expensive. Freight rates are up in the short-term tanker market and ships in limited supply, Mitsana said. Also, keep in minda that this is a Russia which is now considering dumping diamonds in the market just to sporadically fill holes in its budget.

Ironically, when taking Russia's deteriorating financial situation in consideration, Russia actually has an incentive to boost not reduce production: the government is seeking ways to increase revenues from the energy industry, which generates more than 40 percent of the national budget. Finance Minister Anton Siluanov suggested cutting the price threshold for oil exempt from production taxes to $7.50 a barrel from $15, according to a report from RIA Novosti, a domestic news agency. More production therefore would mean more taxes; less production would lead to an immediate hit to the Russian budget.

Also, as Bloomberg notes, changing the tax regime is a slower process than the “emergency” response Venezuela is seeking. "Usually such big tax changes would come into force from January of the next year" if they were included in the annual draft budget due in October, Sergei Likhachev, associate director for tax practice at Moscow-based law firm Goltsblat BLP, said by phone.

Finally, as a reminder, after his recently concluded meetings in Moscow and Tehran, Venezuelan Oil Minister Eulogio del Pino said six nations were ready to meet and discuss output cuts. The problem is that as the above demonstrates, the probability of such an agreement including Russia remains distant.

"Last year, things didn’t move beyond talks," said IHS’s Nechaev. “I am sure the same is going to happen this year.”

Which means that all that will happen tomorrow is that the biggest short squeeze trigger, the threat of an imminent production cut and recurring flashing headlines hinting at this, will be eliminated. At that point the market can focus on the real underlying dynamics: not only excess supply but clearly slowing global demand...



... and U.S. oil land storage, which as we and the market have been warning, is about to overflow.

[Fenix]

Gold Price Pulls Back As “Bad Actor” Fed Signals Slower Rate Hike Cycle
Submitted by GoldCore on 02/15/2016 10:20 -0500

Volatility, loss of confidence and central bank impotence stalk the capital markets. Gold pulls back in an expected retrenchment. Equity markets are still digesting what the world looks like. Absence of a strong Chinese domestic economy. A developing economy losing its easy credit. Oil prices adjusting to demand levels indicative of economic activity and, most tragically, the continuing proxy wars fought in the middle east as warmongers continue to slaughter innocent civilians.



gold_week_usd

Monetarily speaking the markets are just not playing to the script. It must be infuriating for the unelected officials at our all-powerful central banks to have to take steps to remind or tell, nay, instruct the markets what is correct and what is not. By enforcing interest rates on the market, the Fed, and by extension every other central bank, has denied the market its internal risk rebalancing mechanism. They have manhandled the markets into short term submission, created unintended bubbles which inconveniently burst and exposed the sheer madness and short-sightedness of the modern Keynesian-based monetary model.

When the markets do not buy the message, central banks summon their proxies to bid up or smack down the markets for debt, equities and commodities. They write the script, provide insiders sight of their plans and coordinate market manipulation to give the script meaning and the impression of their competence and foresight.

In my view these bad actors are not necessarily evil people in the sense that they wish to harm you or I -- no, they are far more dangerous than that. They are well-intentioned economic zealots, entrusted with enormous power and an impossible mandate: to deliver stability and growth steadily now and forevermore. This is where the true absurdity at the heart of the matter lies. Economies and markets are naturally cyclical. Blow-offs followed by busts are as sure as day follows night. This cycle is critical as it allows for trial and error, the creation of anti-fragile networks and system resilience -- it is the very reason mankind got this far. Unfortunately, it cannot be modelled in a spreadsheet and thus cannot fit in a box. The markets need space to breathe, contract and grow.

Officialdom has sought to smother this natural process and now they will pay a terrible price -- the loss of confidence in the monetary system. This will lead to even more desperate measures as governments turn on each other and competitively devalue their currencies in a vain attempt to placate national interests. Sheer madness.

In my view the most misguided central bank is the Federal Reserve. They have set the tone of this coming collapse since the 1990's when micro rate management came into vogue under Greenspan. Since then bubbles have been pushed from one place to another and re-inflated time and time again. They have treated the market with a degree of contempt that fails to recognise the human cost of their actions.

The Bank of Japan is in a world of its own. They have systematically eroded their monetary system to a degree no one could have imagined -- they are now cancelling bond auctions for lack of interest. They have vastly expanded their monetary base in a futile effort to manufacture a fiscal reality that only Mugabe could aspire too.

By far the title for the most malevolent and anti-democratic institution of them all must be reserved for the ECB. Their policies towards peripheral European countries, in the matter of bond holders and bailouts, has been astonishing. (Review our guide on bail-ins today). They are a transnational organisation with little regard to the social principles that the European Union was established on. They are utterly captive by the economic and industrial interest of central Europe and have been the most divisive entity contributing to the erosion of European integration.

[Fenix]

Japanese Yen, Why The US Dollar Will Lose To This Currency In 2016
Submitted by zenkick2000 on 02/14/2016 14:17 -0500

* Does the Yen really appreciate in times of stock market stress?
* Economic outlook and interest rate scenario for USA & Japan
* How it all fits into the Yen’s next move

USDJPY correlation to S&P 500

The USDJPY is often seen as the currency pair to buy when the stock market is doing well and to sell when the stock market sinks. But how well has that relationship held in more recent years. I’ve had a look at the correlation between the S&P 500 index and the USDJPY exchange rate. I chose to look at the correlation for weekly and monthly close prices going back 10 years. I also looked at the weekly correlation for the periods going from July 2007 to March 2009 and from January 2000 to December 2002.

I chose to look at the most recent years as going back any further Japan was almost considered an emerging economy. The exchange rate for USDJPY in January 1975 was close to 300 yen to the US Dollar. The difference in economies was much greater then and more recent data is likely to reflect current economic conditions and correlations.


Author’s calculations: data from Yahoo finance & global-view

The above table shows a fairly strong positive correlation between the S&P 500 and the USDJPY exchange rate, for weekly and monthly closes. This correlation increases to 0.8441for weekly closes during the 2007/2008 crisis, 1 being perfect correlation. It would seem clear then that over the past ten years this correlation has held and increased greatly during market stress. Worthy of note is the fact that during the 2000/2001 crisis this correlation broke down and turned negative.

Current economic scenario and interest rate out look

The global economic outlook is not too rosy and has not been looking as good as it did several months ago. Fears of a hard landing in China and general economic weakness in developed economies are taking a toll on stock markets worldwide. To add to the specter of global recession is economic data that is not living up to expectations. This month’s Non-Farm payrolls came out a lot lower than expected at 151k with forecasts at around 200k. That was also the third successive decline in job creation. GDP growth rate has also been on the decline over the past 3 quarters with latest data in January at 0.70%.



Concerns expressed by Fed Chairwoman Yellen are rattling the markets further after the bumpy start to the year. Previously the stock market had taken a sharp stumble whenever it felt concern for interest rates being hiked too early. Now it’s getting shaken by the fact that the Fed is now admitting that the economy is not growing as fast as it should be. Technical analysis is now adding gasoline to the fire with signs of the recent correction turning into a bear market.

The Fed may or may not have raised rates too early but from recent statements it would seem like the current level will be set to stay until economic factors begin improving again. In Japan on the other hand interest rates have just been lowered to negative levels, and seem destined to remain there for some time. The positive effects hoped for of such a dovish monetary policy were short lived and the Nikkei dropped 5%.

What all this means for the USDJPY

As is well known interest rates can drive large moves in currencies as expectations of changes are played forward. The most recent example is the sustained rally experienced by the US Dollar against most currencies especially against the Euro or the Yen which already had very low rates. So in theory rising rates in the US and decreasing rates in Japan should see the US Dollar increase in price against the Yen.

That holds when all else remains equal and GDP growth is similar and so too is inflation. The negative interest rates in Japan may or may not have an effect; negative interest rates are completely new there and not very experimented in general. Negative interest rates usually happen with negative inflation, if not it simply would not be possible. The effect of higher rates of inflation is to depreciate the value of a currency. A currency where inflation is higher than another currency will see its value depreciate; if not the goods in the country with low inflation would become very cheap.

Over the past year while inflation in the US has risen from negative levels in the first half of 2015 and is now on the rise, in Japan inflation has been on the decline and has turned negative with MoM data at -0.1%. The chart below shows the crossover in Core Inflation for Japan and the USA.




source: tradingeconomics.com

During this period the USDJPY has halted its rise reaching its peak on June 5th 2015 at 125.68. It has since then experienced large amounts of volatility with a downward trend now in full play. Doesn’t that sound familiar to another well-known asset class? Which I shall not mention of course; the S&P 500.


Source Tradingview

Given the high positive long running correlation, a scissor effect in inflation and a likely rout in the broad stock market I see this currency pair taking a nose dive for 2016.