Viernes 04/15/11 CPI, Manufactura en NY

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Core CPI subio solo 0.1% gana Bernanke.

Futures cu siguen bajando 4.25

-1

mejorando

Manufactura en NY fue 21.70 en Marzo vs. 0.5 en Febrero.

Oil down 107.77

-4

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El core bajo de 0.2% a 0.1%. Triunfo para Bernanke.

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MBI +9.52%

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PAAS+2.28%

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MBI +10.30%

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SCCO -0.47%

futures cu down 4.24

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MBI +13.15%

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MBI +13.66%

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GS: oil, Au y cu bajarian en los proximos tres meses.

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Los de Venezuela son mas de 1000 puntos basicos o sea mas del 10% sobre el de US que es considerado sin riesgo. Nadie quiere esa deuda, o mejor dicho es la de mayor riesgo.

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Y asi se pondria el riesgo Peru si Humala sale de presidente.

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Les recomiendo leer el libro La Revolucion Capitalista en el Peru de Jaime Althaus. Creo que todos los peruanos, sobre todos los jovenes tienen la obligacion moral con su pais de conocer su realidad mas alla de los lemas de campania y de la ideologia. Yo no pretendo hacerles cambiar su voto o su manera de pensar, pero si defiendo el derecho a mejorar a conocer mejor al Peru, a poder sustentar sus posiciones con conocimiento de causa, a ser mas inteligentes, a simplemente ser mejores por el bien del Peru.

Y por supuesto a emitir un voto inteligente, objetivo, sin emocion, con cabeza fria para el bien de Uds. y del Peru.


Esto es lo que dice Hernando de Soto sobre el libro:

"Escrita en un lenguaje perfectamente asequible y con un estilo elocuente, fluido y analitico, esta obra es una gran sintesis de ls cambios institucionales y estructurales ocurridos en el Peru desde 1990, dentro de un marcoo interpretativo originall y renovador. Polemiza con los mitos acerca del impacto del mercado y la globalizacion, y demuestra como las reformas redujeron la desigualdad social y regional y democratizaron la propiedad y el capital. Esta es una obra vital en el debate politico-economico de hoy en America Latina. Este libro aporta nuevas luces a ese debate, porque encuentra relaciones y efectos antes no senalados en los procesos nacionales de modernizacion de mercado"

Esto es lo que dice Calos Alberto Montaner: "Jaime de Althaus ha escrito un libro magnifico y sorprendente sobre el Peru. En el exhibe y defiende una vision razonadamente optimista del despegue economico que experimenta su pais. En la obra que debiera ser lectura obligada en todas las universidades demuestra que la libertad economica, el mercado, el capital y las ideas modernas de una parte sustancia de la sociedad van logrando algo que, de prolongarse, acabara por ser reconocido como el milagro peruano"

Y esto es lo que dice Andres Oppenheimer:

"La revolucion capitalista en el Peru es una excelente obra de investigacion, reportaje y analisis, de un observador privilegiado de la realidad peruana. De Althaus ha escrito un libro que permanecera vigente por muchos anios"

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La inflacion permanece controlada (la core)

La produccion industrial subio a sus niveles mas altos en los ultimos tres meses, subio 0.8%

Underlying Inflation Remains Tame

By LUCA DI LEO And JAMILA TRINDLE
U.S. consumer prices kept rising in March as gasoline and food prices moved higher, but underlying inflation remained tame, giving the Federal Reserve scope to keep its easy-money policies in place.

Separately, industrial production cranked up to its highest level in three months in March.

The seasonally-adjusted consumer price index last month increased by 0.5% from February, the Labor Department said Friday. That followed a 0.5% monthly increase in February, which was also driven by higher energy and food costs.

On an annual basis, prices were up 2.7% in March, the highest level since December 2009, underscoring the impact of higher prices for oil, grains, metals and other global commodities on headline inflation.

However, underlying inflation, which excludes energy and food prices that can be volatile, rose by only 0.1% in March from February. The annual underlying inflation rate stood at 1.2% last month, within the Fed's comfort zone of just under 2.0%.

Economists surveyed by Dow Jones Newswires had forecast the so-called core consumer price index would increase by a higher 0.2%. The headline inflation rise was seen at 0.4%.

Top decision-makers at the Fed, including Chairman Ben Bernanke, don't believe the central bank should rush to raise interest rates because the commodity price increases are likely to have a temporary impact on broader inflation. They consider underlying inflation a better measure of price trends and fear tightening credit too soon may only hurt a still-fragile economy with high unemployment, while inflation is likely to come down later this year anyway as commodity prices stabilize.

Policymakers in other parts of the world have taken a different approach. The European Central Bank, which looks at inflation measures that include food and energy and have shown prices rising above its 2.0% target, last week raised rates from rock-bottom levels for the first time since the global financial crisis. The Bank of England is also expected to tighten credit by this summer to keep U.K. inflation -- which stands at double the bank's 2.0% target -- in check.

Friday's report showed that gasoline and food prices together accounted for almost three quarters of the overall consumer price increase.

The energy index rose 3.5% in March from February, the ninth monthly increase in a row. Global oil prices have risen sharply in recent months amid continued unrest in oil-rich North African and Middle Eastern countries. Gasoline prices in the U.S. climbed 5.6% last month.

Food prices rose a monthly 0.8% in March after increasing by 0.6% the previous month. All six major grocery store food groups rose, with increases ranging from 0.5% for cereals and bakery products to 1.9% for fruits and vegetables.

Without rounding, the report showed that consumer prices rose by 0.549% in March from February. Excluding food and energy items, consumer prices increased 0.135% without rounding.

In the meantime, real average weekly earnings fell by 0.5% over the month in March, in a sign that wage pressure remain subdued, posing little threat to inflation.

A separate report from the Fed noted that industrial production rose 0.8% compared to the prior month, while industries used 77.4% of their capacity, from a downwardly revised 76.9% in February. Originally, the Fed said capacity utilization that month was 77.0%.

The report was stronger than expected. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones Newswires had forecast a 0.6% increase in output and a capacity utilization rate of 77.4%. The big gain in output was powered by increases in manufacturing, mining and utilities.

—Andrew Ackerman and Jeff Bater contributed to this article.

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La produccion de Toyota en la mitad en Japon.

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EPU +0.30%

+26.79