por admin » Vie Ene 27, 2012 9:23 am
Gingrich lidera las encuestas
Gingrich esta repuntando frente a Romney a nivel nacional, pero esta mostrando que es vulnerable en una eleccion general.
Gingrich 37%, Romney 28%. Gingrich obtiene notas muy altas en experiencia y conocimiento. Los independientes tienen sentimientos negativos contra Gingrich.
POLITICSJANUARY 27, 2012.
Gingrich Leading as Fight Intensifies
Ex-Speaker Fares Worse vs. Obama
By NEIL KING JR.
Republican presidential candidate Newt Gingrich with his wife, Callista, on Jan. 26 in Mount Dora, Fla.
.Newt Gingrich is outpacing Mitt Romney among Republican voters nationwide, but he also is showing evidence of the vulnerabilities that could hurt the former House speaker in a general election, according to the latest Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll.
With the two rivals fighting it out in Florida after Mr. Gingrich's big South Carolina victory last week, the poll found Republicans nationwide favoring Mr. Gingrich 37% to 28% over Mr. Romney. GOP voters gave the former House speaker high marks for knowledge and experience, while they continued to harbor doubts about Mr. Romney's positions on the issues and his feel for average Americans.
.But the survey also finds that many Americans overall, notably political independents, hold negative feelings about Mr. Gingrich, and that Mr. Romney fares considerably better in a hypothetical matchup against Democratic President Barack Obama.
In the final debate before Tuesday's GOP Primary in Florida, Mitt Romney showed a tougher side, taking on Newt Gingrich on immigration, government spending and entitlements. WSJ's Patrick O'Connor gives his impressions.
.The poll captures on a larger stage much of the drama playing out now in Florida, where Mr. Romney is scrambling to stop Mr. Gingrich's resurgence by jabbing at his weaknesses. The two engaged in verbal jousting at a Thursday evening debate in Jacksonville, where they criticized each other over the familiar topics of taxes and illegal immigration, as well as such new topics as investment portfolios and space exploration.
The struggle between the two has made the Florida race volatile; after trailing at the start of the week, Mr. Romney has moved to even or just ahead in more recent polls before next Tuesday's primary there.
The Journal/NBC poll also puts a spotlight on the bigger issue of electability, registering a distinct uptick in positive sentiment both toward the economy and Mr. Obama. Greater confidence in the economy would strengthen the president's position leading up to the election.
Mr. Obama's approval rating nudged up to 48%, while 46% disapprove of the job he is doing, the first time the reading has moved into positive territory for the president since June. Mr. Obama was losing to a generic Republican candidate last month, but the new survey finds him beating an unnamed Republican 47% to 42%, his best margin in seven months.
Specifically, Mr. Obama tops both of the leading GOP candidates, but he is far stronger against Mr. Gingrich. When Americans were asked how they would vote today, the president surpasses Mr. Romney 49% to 43%. Against Mr. Gingrich, his margin swells to 55% to 37%.
"Republicans better bring their 'A' game to the election, because they cannot depend on a negative, crushing environment to win," said Republican pollster Bill McInturff, who conducted the poll along with Democratic pollster Peter Hart.
Mr. Hart had a similar assessment. "This is a great start for Obama with a lot of work to be done for the Republicans," he said. "The Republican primary is hurting them, and the improving economy is helping Obama."
The poll of 1,000 adults was conducted between Sunday and Tuesday, after Mr. Gingrich's surprisingly strong victory in South Carolina's primary. Mr. Gingrich led Mr. Romney by a wider margin in last month's Journal poll, 40% to 23%, though his fortunes have moved up and down in the intervening weeks.
Among the other two GOP contestants still in the race, former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum garnered 18% support among GOP primary voters in the latest poll, while Texas Rep. Ron Paul got 12%. When winnowed down to just the two front-runners, 52% of Republicans picked Mr. Gingrich, compared with 39% for Mr. Romney.
The survey illuminates both where Mr. Gingrich has solidified his support and his broader weaknesses.
Mr. Gingrich owes his edge over Mr. Romney in large part to strong support in the South, where he leads the former Massachusetts governor by 24 percentage points. The former speaker notched outsize support among tea-party supporters and Republicans who see themselves as "very conservative."
.Meanwhile, though many analysts still see Mr. Romney as the likely nominee, the poll found him failing to convince key blocks of his own party. Among Republican primary voters, he was favored by 29% of women, 21% of tea-party backers and 17% of strongly conservative Republicans. His largest segments of support come from those calling themselves moderates and liberals. "Gingrich is just killing Romney in the core of the party," said Mr. Hart, who noted Mr. Romney continues to play "to a slim portion of the electorate."
At the same time, just over half of all Americans—and 57% of independents—gave Mr. Gingrich poor marks on the question of which candidate has "high personal standards." Mr. Romney came out markedly stronger on that front. Some 48% of all Americans say they have negative feelings toward Mr. Gingrich, compared with 36% for Mr. Romney and 39% for Mr. Obama.
Former Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich pushing debate moderator Wolf Blitzer to stay on track, Blitzer challenges Gingrich to address prior statements during the Republican debate in Florida. Courtesy of CNN.
.Mr. Gingrich's personal life flared as an issue last week when his second wife, Marianne, said in an interview that he asked for an open marriage before their divorce in 2000. More than one-third of adults said they viewed Mr. Gingrich more negatively after hearing stories about his marital problems.
Like many Republicans, Roy Hooper is a voter torn between the pluses and minuses of the two GOP front-runners.
The California high-school teacher, who was among those polled, said he wasn't thrilled with either man. He likes Mr. Gingrich, except "I extremely dislike his immigration policy," which supports leniency for illegal immigrants who have been in the U.S. for decades. He said he might "look more closely at Romney, but then with his health-care stuff looking like Obama, that's almost a deal-breaker for me."
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Close.On broader questions of the national mood, 30% of those polled think the nation is heading in the right direction, up from 22% in December. Exactly half of Americans disapprove of Mr. Obama's handling of the economy, down from his all-time high of 59% in August.
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.At the same time, Mr. Obama earns the approval of just 38% of whites for the job he is doing, compared with the 43% who voted for him in 2008. "So long as he remains below 40%, he remains in substantial peril," said Mr. McInturff.
Mitt Romney and Newt Gingrich sparring over housing and Gingrich's record of consulting at mortgage giant Freddie Mac at The Republican presidential debate in Florida. Courtesy of CNN.
.The poll found both unease about the current crop of candidates and optimism that the eventual nominee will be able to win in November. More than three-quarters of Republicans said they saw the GOP field as average or weak, 80% were optimistic the eventual nominee could beat Mr. Obama.
But the poll shows signs of Mr. Obama's original election coalition—African-Americans, Hispanics, young voters and college-educated whites—beginning to reassemble.
"We don't yet see his coalition coalescing," Mr. McInturff said. "But it is like a magnet, with the little threads moving toward the magnet."