Jueves 12/07/12 Precios de los importadores y exp.

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-84.35

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-109

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-99

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-63.05

[javiier3434]

Estimada Aguila
Los datos "oficiales" de China a que hora o que dia saldran a la opinion publica.
gracias por la respuesta.
javier

Se sospecha una desaceleracion mas profunda en China

Los datos oficiales esta semana se expera que muestren una desaceleracion en el crecimiento de China a sus niveles mas bajos desde la crisis financiera. Pero algunos economistas dicen que hay evidencia de que la verdadera situacion de la economia China es mucho peor.

Se espera que la economia haya crecido algo de 7.6% con respecto al anio pasado. Eso es por debajo del 8.1% de crecimiento en el primer trimestre y el mas lento desde el primer trimestre del 2009.

El uso de la electricidad solo subio 2.7% y los economistas piensan que son cifras exageradas por el gobierno.

Deeper Slowdown Suspected in China

By TOM ORLIK And AARON BACK
BEIJING—Official data due this week are expected to show growth in China slowing to its lowest rate since the global financial crisis. But some economists say they are turning up evidence that the true picture could be even worse.

China's National Bureau of Statistics is scheduled to report second-quarter gross domestic product growth on Friday, and according to a Dow Jones poll of 15 economists, it is likely to show the country's economy grew by 7.6% from a year earlier. That is down from 8.1% growth in the first quarter, and the slowest pace since the first quarter of 2009.

Coming hard on the heels of a weak jobs report in the U.S in June, and fading business sentiment in European economic powerhouse Germany, fresh evidence of slowing growth in the world's second-largest economy would be a further blow to an already fragile global recovery. If, as some economists suspect, growth is even slower than the official data suggest, that would compound fears that China is poorly placed to help lift the world economy out of its slump.

Economists who doubt the reliability of China's official gross domestic product figures are using other methods to measure China's growth and finding mixed results, reports the WSJ's Aaron Back.
.Economists have responded to long-standing doubts about the reliability of official data by constructing their own indexes of China's growth. Typically these are based on measures such as electricity production, rail freight and real-estate construction that should track growth closely but are regarded as less prone to political interference.

London-based research firm Capital Economics created its own index during the last major downturn during the 2008-09 crisis. "We created a proxy of Chinese economic activity in order to answer doubts about the data, somewhat to our surprise it generally runs in proximity to the official numbers," said Mark Williams, an economist at the firm. "But particularly at the beginning of this year they began to diverge. So doubts about the quality of the data are justified."

Capital Economics's proxy indicator suggests that China's economy grew by around 7.6% in the first quarter of this year, half a percentage point lower than the official GDP figure.

Similar results reached by other analysts have led some to suspect that the data are "smoothed" and become less reliable during periods of rapid slowdown or strong growth—times when the margin for error in calculating the true rate of growth also may be higher.

Friday's numbers will be underpinned by a new approach to collecting data on industrial output, a key measure of China's growth, accounting for about half of GDP.

Under the new approach, in place since February, China's biggest 700,000 enterprises report data directly to the NBS over the Internet. That replaces a system where many reported to local statistics offices, and information was then transmitted from town, to city, to province and to national levels.

The latest approach is intended to overcome one of the main flaws in China's data system—exaggeration of the growth rate by ambitious local officials. A notice on the National Bureau of Statistics website in February announcing the change called on businesses to "submit data independently, resisting any attempts at interference."

That warning to avoid interference may have been prescient. A report in the Chinese press in April, reproduced on the NBS website, cited many instances of abuse of the new system, with some local officials requiring businesses to co-ordinate with local statistical offices before reporting their data, effectively reintroducing the possibility of political interference.

Responding to the reports of abuse in an April statement, Ma Jiantang, the head of the NBS, said "there are still a few low-level officials that are ignoring the statistics law and the statistics system, using overt and covert devices, to interfere with the independent and authentic reporting of data by businesses."

Recently, doubts have been raised that electricity-production data—widely viewed as a reliable proxy for China's growth, also may be subject to political interference, with suspicion that local leaders may be encouraging power producers to exaggerate growth rates.

Standard Chartered economist Stephen Green thought concerns over the electricity data were serious enough to warrant a switch to a new proxy for growth—demand for gas and diesel. This replacement indicator, though, still suggests "sluggish growth rather than recession," he wrote in a recent note, similar to the story told by the official GDP data.

Others believe fears of exaggeration in the electricity data—which registered a dismal 2.7% year-over-year growth rate in May—are overstated. Power generation is dominated by five major state-owned companies in China, which together account for just over half of total electricity output—reducing the scope for local officials to distort the data.

Mr. Lu, manager at a power plant in eastern China, a unit of the state-owned China Guodian Corp., said the plant's output data are transmitted automatically by a computer system to the local municipal statistics bureau. "We need to make daily, monthly and annual reports," he said. "There is no way to falsify this."

Incentives for local leaders may be aligned against exaggerating electricity output. "They have little incentive to over-report use of energy, including electricity, as Beijing imposes increasingly restrictive regulations on energy use per unit of GDP on local governments," said Bank of America Merrill-Lynch economist Lu Ting in a note.

—Yoli Zhang

[javiier3434]

GRACIAS MARIO, TU SIEMPRE MUY AL DIA CON LOS DATOS.
que piensas, si aparentemente los datos salen mal de china, las bolsas de USA mañana caeran feo? el oro y el petroleo caeran? Cual es tu sentimiento o expectativas.
gracias por la respuesta
UN ABRAZO

la semana pasada les copie el GLOBAL TRADERS' GUIDE de Barclays con el calendario, eventos y previsiones hasta el 20 de julio

https://docs.google.com/file/d/0B-XfOxg ... 1YbXM/edit

Los datos de China es el viernes 13 a las 02:00 GMT, para nosotros las 21:00 del jueves 12

02:00 China: Industrial production, % y/y Jun
02:00 China: Fixed asset investments, YTD % y/y Jun
02:00 China: GDP, % y/y Q2
02:00 China: Retail sales, % y/y Jun

[admin]

12:11 p.m. EDT 07/12/12Treasurys
    Price Chg Yield %
2-Year Note   1/32 0.266
10-Year Note   11/32 1.486
* at close
12:02 p.m. EDT 07/12/12Futures
  Last Change Settle
Crude Oil 85.22 -0.59 85.81
Gold 1566.8 -8.9 1575.7
E-mini Dow 12507 -29 12536
E-mini S&P 500 1328.50 -7.75 1336.25
12:12 p.m. EDT 07/12/12Currencies
  Last (mid) Prior Day †
Japanese Yen (USD/JPY) 79.26 79.76
Euro (EUR/USD) 1.2196 1.2239
† Late Wednesday in New York.

[admin]

Anglo da paso clave para desarrollar gran mina de cobre en Perú
jueves 12 de julio de 2012 12:05 GYT Imprimir [-] Texto [+]
LIMA (Reuters) - La minera Anglo American alcanzó un acuerdo con los pobladores de Moquegua, un área al sur Perú donde proyecta desarrollar una mina de cobre de gran escala, y dio un paso crucial para concretar el emprendimiento que demandará una inversión de 3.000 millones de dólares, dijo el jueves el Gobierno.

El primer ministro peruano, Oscar Valdés, dijo que Anglo American y las autoridades de la región convinieron en la víspera la creación de un fondo social al que la empresa transferirá 1.000 millones de soles (379 millones de dólares) durante las tres décadas que durará la explotación.

La compañía había logrado recientemente el visto bueno de las localidades involucradas en el proyecto llamado Quellaveco para el uso del agua, pero aún debe obtener permisos de construcción, que espera conseguir en este semestre.

"El día de ayer (miércoles) hemos cerrado el tema de Moquegua y Anglo American, con Quellaveco, ha sido una negociación larga, en la cual también habían frentes bastante exigentes por decir así", dijo Valdes a la radio local RPP.

El Gobierno actúa como facilitador en la búsqueda de este tipo de acuerdos entre empresas y mineras.

Quellaveco, uno de los principales proyectos de Anglo American en el segundo productor mundial de cobre, produciría unas 220.000 toneladas anuales del metal rojo.

El ministro de Energía y Minas, Jorge Merino, destacó por su parte que el acuerdo ha recogido el nuevo modelo de funcionamiento de la minería para realizar proyectos de convivencia social de largo plazo.

El Gobierno del presidente Ollanta Humala exige que las empresas mineras interesadas en invertir en Perú garanticen primero el acceso al agua de la población, el cuidado del medioambiente y apoyen los esfuerzos de inclusión social generando empleos directos e indirectos.

"Esto es importantísimo destacarlo porque estamos dando una señal de que apostar por el diálogo siempre da buenos resultados", indicó Merino.

El tema del agua es vital para los planes mineros en Perú, dado que los pobladores de las zonas cercanas a los yacimientos suelen oponerse a estos emprendimientos en medio de temores a quedarse sin este recurso para sus actividades agrícolas.

Anglo American, que se excusó de referirse al acuerdo tras el anuncio del Gobierno, afirmó días atrás que mantiene su objetivo de iniciar este año la construcción de Quellaveco, que se extendería por unos 44 meses.

La minera global también opera en Chile, donde asociada con Xstrata opera la mina de cobre Collahuasi, el tercer yacimiento del planeta.

Asimismo, mantiene una multimillonaria disputa con la estatal chilena Codelco, la mayor productora mundial de cobre, por activos en Chile, que incluyen la mina Los Bronces.

[admin]

Esto lo puse anoche, es a las 10 pm.

Todos mirando el aterrizaje forzado de China

China repoerta el crecimiento de su economia en el segundo trimestre, asi como la produccion indiustrial y las ventas retail. Se dara a conocer alrededor de las 10 p.m. en New York.

A las 5 a.m. tendremos la produccion industrial de Europa.

Tomorrow’s Tape: China Hard-Landing Watch Is On

By Paul Vigna
Economics:

The biggest piece of data tomorrow comes from halfway across the globe: China reports second-quarter GDP, along with industrial production and retail sales. It’s a Friday release in Beijing, but given time differences, it will hit at 10 p.m. New York time. Any signs that China’s slipping into the proverbial and dreaded “hard-landing” will be felt across the globe.

In Europe, eurozone industrial production gets released at 5 a.m. ET.

Here in the U.S.:

Weekly jobless claims (8:30): seen falling 370,000, from 374,000.

June import prices (8:30): seen down 2.0%, after falling 1.0% in May.

EIA weekly natural gas store report (10:30): total working gas seen rising by 25 Bcf, after rising 39 Bcf a week ago.

June federal budget (2:00 p.m.): seen widening by $72 billion.

San Francisco Fed President John Williams (3:40 p.m.) speaks in Portlandia.

Earnings:

Progressive, Commerce Bancshares, Bank of the Ozarks

[admin]

Lean todo el foro.

[admin]

http://online.wsj.com/public/page/espanol-inicio.html

[admin]

-48

[javiier3434]

GRACIAS AGUILA. SI LO LEI, PERO PENSE QUE ERAN LOS DATOS PRELIMINARES, NO OFICIALES.

GRACIAS

Esto lo puse anoche, es a las 10 pm.

Todos mirando el aterrizaje forzado de China

China repoerta el crecimiento de su economia en el segundo trimestre, asi como la produccion indiustrial y las ventas retail. Se dara a conocer alrededor de las 10 p.m. en New York.

A las 5 a.m. tendremos la produccion industrial de Europa.

Tomorrow’s Tape: China Hard-Landing Watch Is On

By Paul Vigna
Economics:

The biggest piece of data tomorrow comes from halfway across the globe: China reports second-quarter GDP, along with industrial production and retail sales. It’s a Friday release in Beijing, but given time differences, it will hit at 10 p.m. New York time. Any signs that China’s slipping into the proverbial and dreaded “hard-landing” will be felt across the globe.

In Europe, eurozone industrial production gets released at 5 a.m. ET.

Here in the U.S.:

Weekly jobless claims (8:30): seen falling 370,000, from 374,000.

June import prices (8:30): seen down 2.0%, after falling 1.0% in May.

EIA weekly natural gas store report (10:30): total working gas seen rising by 25 Bcf, after rising 39 Bcf a week ago.

June federal budget (2:00 p.m.): seen widening by $72 billion.

San Francisco Fed President John Williams (3:40 p.m.) speaks in Portlandia.

Earnings:

Progressive, Commerce Bancshares, Bank of the Ozarks

[admin]

  Last Change % Chg
DJIA 12593.25 -11.28 -0.09
Nasdaq 2869.98 -18.00 -0.62
S&P 500 1337.23 -4.22 -0.31
DJ Total Stock Market 13955.15 -48.92 -0.35
Russell 2000 782.95 -9.31 -1.18

[admin]

1:22 p.m. EDT 07/12/12Treasurys
    Price Chg Yield %
2-Year Note   1/32 0.270
10-Year Note   8/32 1.496
* at close
1:13 p.m. EDT 07/12/12Futures
  Last Change Settle
Crude Oil 85.06 -0.75 85.81
Gold 1566.7 -9.0 1575.7
E-mini Dow 12520 -16 12536
E-mini S&P 500 1330.50 -5.75 1336.25
1:23 p.m. EDT 07/12/12Currencies
  Last (mid) Prior Day †
Japanese Yen (USD/JPY) 79.32 79.76
Euro (EUR/USD) 1.2195 1.2239
† Late Wednesday in New York.