por admin » Jue Sep 02, 2010 1:37 pm
Trichet eleva el pronostico de crecimiento para Europa entre 1.4% y 1.8% para este anio.
ECB Lifts Growth Forecast, Leaves Rates Unchanged
By ROMAN KESSLER And TERENCE ROTH
The European Central Bank raised its central forecast for 2010 economic growth in the euro zone to 1.6% from 1%, President Jean-Claude Trichet said Thursday.
ECB Holds Steady on Rates
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European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet announced that key ECB interest rates will remain unchanged.
.Mr. Trichet said the ECB's staff now expects gross domestic product for the 16-country area to grow by between 1.4% and 1.8% this year. When the ECB had last updated its forecasts three months ago, it had forecast a range of 0.7% to 1.3%.
For 2011, the ECB raised its range of forecasts to between 0.5% and 2.3%, from an earlier estimate of 0.2% to 2.2%. That implies a midpoint of 1.4%, up from 1.2% three months ago.
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.The ECB updates its forecasts for growth and inflation in the euro zone every three months. Mr. Trichet said the ECB now expects inflation to be between 1.5% and 1.7% this year, a midpoint forecast of 1.6%, compared with a range of 1.4% to 1.6% previously.
For 2011, he said the bank now expects inflation to be between 1.2% and 2.2%, up from a range of 1.0% to 2.2% in June.
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.In comments after the bank left its benchmark interest rate unchanged, Mr. Trichet also said the ECB would extend its toolbox of additional bank funding on a "full allotment" basis, citing continued uncertainties in the economy.
"Overall, the current monetary stance remains accommodative," Mr. Trichet told a news conference in his opening statement.
Inflation in the euro zone is expected to continue holding at a moderate pace, Mr. Trichet said. The economy has accelerated in recent months, he added, attributing this in part to temporary factors.
Mr. Trichet said that the central bank would adjust its policies when appropriate and that price stability would be maintained.
Earlier Thursday, the ECB announced that it's policy board had voted to leave its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 1%.
Mr. Trichet said the ECB expects euro-zone and global economic growth to slow in the second half of this year. He pointed out concern over emerging tensions in financial markets and signs of slowing recoveries in major developed economies.
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Hannelore Foerster/Bloomberg
ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet gestured during a news conference in Frankfurt, Thursday.
."Looking ahead, the recovery should proceed at a moderate pace, with uncertainty still prevailing," Mr. Trichet said. "Our monetary analysis confirms that inflationary pressures over the medium term remain contained, as suggested by weak money and credit growth."
Detailing the extended special liquidity facilities for banks, Mr. Trichet said the ECB would continue to conduct its main refinancing operations, or MROs, and its special-term refinancing operations as fixed rate tender procedures with full allotment at least until Jan. 18. The fixed rate in these special-term refinancing operations will be the same as the MRO rate prevailing at the time, he said.
The ECB also will conduct the three-month longer-term refinancing operations, or LTROs, in October, November and December 2010, as fixed rate tender procedures with full allotment. The rates in these three-month operations will be fixed at the average rate of the MROs over the life of the respective LTRO.
To keep funding transitions smooth, the ECB will carry out three additional fine-tuning operations on Sept. 30, Nov. 11 and Dec. 23, when six-month and 12-month refinancing operations mature, Mr. Trichet said.
The euro rose very slightly against the dollar after Mr. Trichet's remarks, which didn't bring any particular surprises, analysts said. Also supporting the euro was the successful auction of Spanish government bonds in a sign that euro-zone sovereign debt issues are isolated.
Financial markets reacted positively to the extension of some of the central bank's special funding facilities.
"The decision to extend full allotment to liquidity operations until the beginning of next year is welcome as tensions remain in the banking sector," said Marie Diron, Chief Economist for the Ernst & Young Eurozone Forecast, in a note to clients.
"Many banks continue to face difficult access to funds, which leads to tight credit conditions for the real economy," Mr. Diron said.
Earlier Thursday, Sweden's central bank raised its key interest rate, continuing its gradual normalization of policy following heavy rate cuts in the wake of the financial downturn.
The Riksbank raised its key rate to 0.75% from 0.5% and left its forecast unchanged.
"Inflationary pressures are currently low, but are expected to increase as economic activity strengthens," the Riksbank said. "The repo rate needs to be raised gradually towards more normal levels to attain the inflation target of 2% and create the right conditions for stable growth in the real economy."
The central bank said it still expects a quarterly average interest rate of 0.9% at the end of the year, and an average rate of 3.8% in the third quarter of 2013.
According to the bank's statement, Deputy Governor Lars E.O. Svensson had reservations about the increase. He voted to keep the rate at 0.5% and project a lower future rate path to avoid increased unemployment and a drop in already-low inflation.
Deputy Governor Karolina Ekholm advocated a flatter rate path, with lower rates at the end of the forecast period, arguing that a weaker global economy might reduce growth and inflation in Sweden.
At its previous meeting in July, the central bank raised the key rate to 0.5% from a record low of 0.25%, where it had stood since July last year after 4.5 percentage points of cuts in response to the global financial crisis in late 2008.
Torbjorn Isaksson, an economist at Nordea, said the decision to increase rates showed that the Riksbank gave more weight to the strong Swedish economy than to the more uncertain global economic outlook. The increase was in line with market expectations, he said, but added that it should strengthen the Swedish krona.
—Geoffrey T. Smith, Emese Bartha, and Gustav Sandstrom contributed to this article.