Martes 05/10/10 ISM no manufacturero

[admin]

MBI +7.56%

[Victor VE]

Entro a revisar la BVL y está que vuela, alguna noticia al respecto? o es por el panorama mundial?

[admin]

ECONOMYOCTOBER 5, 2010, 1:56 P.M. ET
Fed Official Calls for Aggressive Action

By JON HILSENRATH

CHICAGO -- Charles Evans, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, called for the Fed to do more to charge up the economy, including a new program of U.S. Treasury bond purchases and possibly a declaration that it wants inflation to rise for a time beyond its informal 2% target.

"In the last several months I've stared at our unemployment forecast and come to the conclusion that it's just not coming down nearly as quickly as it should," Mr. Evans said in an interview with The Wall Street Journal Monday. "This is a far grimmer forecast than we ought to have," he added. As result, he said, he favors "much more [monetary] accommodation than we've put in place."
Q&A: Evans explains his position
Cheat Sheet: Highlight of Fed speeches
Earlier: Bernanke Confident in Asset Purchases
Bond Traders Fine-Tune Bets on Fed Aid
What He Has Been Saying

In the interview, Mr. Evans elaborate on a speech he gave last week.
For a sense of how his views have evolved, see this June speech.
What Evans Has Been Reading

For a sense of what he says he's been reading on how to respond, look at the following papers by Princeton economist Paul Krugman,
Gauti Eggertsson of the New York Fed and Michael Woodford of Columbia University
and Alan Auerbach and Maurice Obstfeld
The comments are significant because Mr. Evans tends to reflect the broad center of gravity at the central bank. His prescription for aggressive action, though not uniformly held by his colleagues, suggests a shift in the mood at the Fed. On the heels of remarks by Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke and New York Federal Reserve Bank President William Dudley, it is likely to reinforce a growing conviction among investors that the Fed will restart a bond-buying program when it meets Nov. 2 and 3.

It also suggests Fed deliberations are going beyond resuming bond-buying plans to contemplating new strategies for talking about inflation and for communicating the Fed's stance to the public.

In recent months, Mr. Evans, 52, an economist who has led the Chicago Fed since 2007, has become increasingly worried that the U.S. is falling into what's known as a "liquidity trap," in which banks don't lend and firms don't invest. He has grown frustrated with a lack of progress in bringing down unemployment and is now forecasting inflation of 1% in 2012 and below 1.5% in 2013, well below his own 2% goal.

Journal Community

The Fed is now considering whether to add to its $2.3-trillion portfolio of securities and loans by ramping up purchases of U.S. Treasury bonds, in an effort to drive down long-term interest rates and boost growth. Mr. Evans says he favors that, but worries that alone "would not be enough" to address his concerns.

The Fed also needs to push down "real" interest rates, nominal interest rates minus inflation, to induce households and businesses to part with savings and borrow and spend more, he said.

One way to push real interest rates lower is to get inflation higher. The Fed might aim to overshoot its informal 2% target for a time to make up for lost ground, Mr. Evans said. "That is a potentially useful policy tool at this point and I definitely think we should study it more," Mr. Evans said.

Mr. Dudley last week also raised the possibility that the Fed might try to catch-up when inflation falls short of its objective by allowing it to run over the target by an equal amount later. Mr. Bernanke has ruled out raising the inflation target altogether, but hasn't weighed in on this catch-up approach. The Fed's policy statement in September noted that inflation was running below its objective.

Any further move to boost inflation would be highly controversial both inside and outside the Fed, which has preached the virtues of less inflation ever since then-Fed Chairman Paul Volcker put the U.S. economy through wrenching recession to wring out double-digit inflation in the 1980s.

"There is nobody who would want, in any way, to lose what Paul Volcker won for the American people by fighting inflation and achieving price stability," Mr. Evans said. "But the current circumstances are really extraordinary. It seems to me if we could somehow get lower real interest rates so that the amount of excess savings that is taking place relative to investment is lowered, that would be one channel for stimulating the economy."

The idea espoused by Mr. Evans and Mr. Dudley is known as "price-level targeting." Inflation is measured as the change in the consumer price index or other price indexes. Rather than target an annual inflation rate of 2%, the Fed would target an inflation index level. So if the consumer price index fell short of the level the Fed targeted one year, it might get back to that level the next year by overshooting a little. It could be a challenge for the Fed to explain such a strategy, and to convince the public that it wouldn't allow inflation to get completely out of hand.

Mr. Evans isn't currently among the five regional Fed bank presidents with a vote on monetary policy. He gets his turn next year.

[admin]

Recordar que el ISM no manufacturero es el 90% de la economia.

[Maricielo]

Entro a revisar la BVL y está que vuela, alguna noticia al respecto? o es por el panorama mundial?

Al parecer es la respuesta del mercado ante la remontada de Lourdes.

[carl_]

El oro, va con deflacion o inflacion..Depreciacion de las monedas. Japon, Peru, Brasil, Europa etc.

[admin]

+194.32

[admin]

La mayor cantidad de oro ahora esta en las manos de Los individuales

[El_Diez]

Entro a revisar la BVL y está que vuela, alguna noticia al respecto? o es por el panorama mundial?

Walls Street esta que vuela, esto mueve a todas las bolsas hacia arriba.

[El_Diez]

el oro 1340.00 dolares. +25, los yields siguen en negativo.

Infalcion o Deflacion?? Los que apuestan por el oro esperan en un futuro inflacion, los que apuestan por los bonos esperan en un futuro deflacion.. cual de los dos tiene razon?

Mientras tanto las bolsas siguen subiendo pero sin volumen, 1.85% up con 660 millones de shares

Los volúmenes mas pronunciados se manifiestan cuando se toca piso y cuando se toca techo creo yo. Estamos en un mercado alcista y eso no quiere decir que las bolsas no van a corregir siempre necesitan tener una corrección normal para luego seguir subiendo.

[admin]

+207.41

Todo explotando por las razones del dia, las medidas de Japon, Australia no subio intereses, el dolar en el nivel mas bajo de los ultimos 8 meses y medio, el ISM que es el 90% de la economia mejor a lo esperado, las proximas elecciones, etc, etc.

No hay deflation en US. En Japon nunca dejara de haber deflation, son decadas, nada les funciona por alla si no hacen cambios estructurales a su economia, lo cual es casi imposible, por que el asunto es cultural y de tradiciones Japonesas.

+204.80

[carl_]

Peru stock exchange sees more participation from young investors, says analyst

Younger professionals are becoming more interested in investing in the Lima Stock Exchange, reported Luis Felipe Arizmendi, President of GPI Valores Sociedad Agente de Bolsa (SAB) and SemanaEconómica.com blogger.

These new investors, aged between 28 and 40 years old, are mainly professionals working in large mining, utilities or multinational companies, already own their houses or departments and have a surplus that they can invest.

This is a recent trend, says Arizmendi, since the typical investors had been between 50 and 60 years old, had extensive investment experience and were usually members of wealthy families. Other new investors are small business owners and even married couples who are saving for their retirement or their children’s college tuitions.

He added that the typical capital of these new investors is between US $25,000 and US $50,000, which he considers an interesting amount to start investing.

[admin]

Au up 1,341, futures cu up 3.73

[admin]

VIX down 21.79

[jonibol]

Lima volando por el repunte de minerales, el buen dato del ISM; y también el hecho que los papeles de segunda pizarra están aportando su cuota de liquidez (miren Raura, Brocal). No creo que el repunte de Lourdes tenga algo que ver. Rota la resistencia de 18 500 -que puse como objetivo hace unas semanas- con excelente volumen hoy, a Lima no le queda más camino que seguir subiendo, suena extraño porque está sobrecomprada pero así es nuestra bolsa, en la subidas es extremadamente eufórica; y en las bajadas, idem.