Viernes 13/04/12 inflacion y confianza consumidor

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-73.57

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http://online.wsj.com/public/page/espanol-inicio.html

[El_Diez]

El gráfico de los futuros del Cobre es quien se esta adelantando a los índices americanos

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La peor semana desde Diciembre.

VIX up 19.54

-131.16

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Ag down 31.44

Oil down 102.91

Au down 1,657

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-138.12

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Au down 1,656

Oil down 102.85

-136.99

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Ag down 31.4

El Dow quedo en 12,849.59 puntos.

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SPANISH Updated April 13, 2012, 5:05 p.m. ET
Los mercados de EE.UU. cerraron en baja, con la mayor caída semanal del año

Por CHRIS DIETERICH

NUEVA YORK (Dow Jones)— Las acciones en Estados Unidos cerraron el viernes con fuertes descensos para finalizar la semana de mayores caídas de 2012, luego de que los decepcionantes datos de China y los crecientes costos crediticios en España afectaran la percepción.

El Promedio Industrial Dow Jones descendió 136,99 puntos, o 1,1%, a 12.949,59. El Standard & Poor's 500 perdió 17,31 puntos, o 1,3%, a 1.370,26, mientras que el Compuesto Nasdaq cayó 44,22 puntos, o 1,5%, a 3.011,33.

El Dow descendió esta semana 1,6%, mientras que el S&P 500 retrocedió 2% y el Nasdaq bajó 2,3%.

Las acciones abrieron en baja luego de la publicación de datos que muestran que la economía china se expandió el trimestre pasado a su ritmo más lento en tres años y al tiempo que los crecientes rendimientos de los bonos en España intensificaran los temores de los inversionistas sobre los problemas de deuda soberana en Europa.

Resultados trimestrales mejores a lo previsto de J.P. Morgan, Wells Fargo y Google no lograron impulsar las acciones.

Las pérdidas se aceleraron más tarde en la sesión y los índices cerraron el viernes cerca de mínimos de sesión.

Las acciones del sector financiero encabezaron las bajas en el mercado y Bank of America, que cayó 5,3%, fue la acción con el mayor descenso en el Dow. J.P. Morgan perdió 3,6% luego que la firma informara resultados para el primer trimestre que superaron las estimaciones, pero la ganancia neta cayó 3,1%. El banco elevó su dividendo y dio a conocer una programa de recompra de acciones de US$15.000 millones.

Wells Fargo descendió 3,5% tras informar que su ganancia aumentó 13% en el primer trimestre, debido a que el gigante bancario de Estados Unidos registró un crecimiento de los ingresos mejor al esperado gracias a la fortaleza del segmento de banca hipotecaria.

Las acciones del sector de tecnología también retrocedieron, incluida Hewlett-Packard, que declinó 2,1%.

Google declinó 4,1% tras informar el jueves que su ganancia e ingresos del primer trimestre superaron las expectativa, aunque el precio promedio por cada clic de publicidad fue inferior a las estimaciones. La firma informó que creará una nueva clase de acción sin derecho a voto que se distribuirá a los actuales accionistas como dividendo, y será una división de dos por uno.

En tanto, Dow Chemical subió 1,6% luego que el directorio de la empresa aprobara un aumento de 28% en su dividendo trimestral, lo que refleja la confianza en su panorama.

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[El_Diez]

Una cumbia fina desde argentina, bravazo esta music, 20 puntos.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZtU6aaWGse0

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SPANISH Updated April 13, 2012, 3:47 p.m. ET
Para China, no hay mal que por bien no venga

Por NICHOLAS HASTINGS

LONDRES (Dow Jones)— Después de todo, puede que Beijing esté haciendo lo correcto.

Durante meses, los mercados financieros mundiales han sido golpeados por los temores de que la economía china se está desacelerando demasiado rápido y que los riesgos de un aterrizaje forzoso se mantengan altos.
Zuma Press
Una fábrica textil en Jijiang, provincia de Fujian, eb China.

Con las nuevas cifras que muestran que el crecimiento se desaceleró a apenas 8,1% en el primer trimestre de este año, frente a 8,9% del cuarto trimestre del año pasado, no es de extrañarse que aparezcan temores de una caída desagradable.

Pero otros datos sugieren que no todo es tan malo como parece. Algunas partes de la economía están repuntando otra vez, el crecimiento del crédito ha vuelto y Beijing parece cómodo con las perspectivas de permitir que el yuan comience a apreciarse nuevamente.

Aún está por verse si el primer trimestre de 2012 resultará ser, o no, el piso del último ciclo económico que provocó una caída del crecimiento de China desde el 11,9% del primer trimestre de 2010.

Algunos creen que el crecimiento seguirá desacelerándose hasta 7,5% en el segundo trimestre y que el propio Beijing es muy cauto con sus proyecciones.

Las posibilidades, no obstante, apuntan a que el crecimiento de todo el año podría regresar a 8,7%, lo cual sugiere que China habrá consumado un aterrizaje suave de la segunda economía más grande del mundo y habrá eliminado muchos de los riesgos que actualmente penden sobre los mercados financieros mundiales.

La clave para este optimismo han sido los acontecimientos de los últimos días, los cuales muestran que la producción industrial creció más de lo esperado y que las ventas minoristas están aumentando.

Estas últimas podrían ser noticias particularmente buenas para Beijing, que ha estado intentando cambiar el balance de la economía del país desde una dependencia de las exportaciones hacia una mayor demanda interna.

Sin embargo, tal vez más importante fueron otros datos que mostraron que el crecimiento del crédito, una señal de la salud futura de la economía, repuntó el mes pasado.

Ciertamente hay una que muestra que Beijing podría estar volviéndose un poco más confiado en cómo se está desempeñando la economía: el desempeño del yuan.

Durante gran parte de este año, el Banco Popular de China ha mantenido estable el yuan o incluso ha permitido que cayera en algunos momentos frente al dólar. Recientes datos sobre las reservas muestran que el banco central ha gastado US$124.000 millones para mantener al yuan bajo control.

En las últimas semanas, sin embargo, se le permitió al yuan comenzar a apreciarse nuevamente. Por un lado, esto podría sugerir que Beijing está interesado en restringir las presiones inflacionarias procedentes de las importaciones. Por otro lado, sugiere que China no está tan preocupada por mantener la competitividad de sus exportaciones mientras la demanda interna se acelera.

Por supuesto, las autoridades chinas no están por sugerir que lo peor ya pasó. Por el contrario, el primer ministro chino, Wen Jiabao, advirtió inmediatamente que la economía continúa enfrentando presiones bajistas y que los riesgos de inflación están en aumento.

El mensaje de Beijing fue que aún habrá más ajustes.

Esto, por supuesto, podría significar un mayor expansionismo monetario, en la forma de menores reservas bancarias, así como mayores reformas fiscales para ayudar a la economía interna.

Y aún no hay seguridad absoluta de que la política de Beijing vaya a funcionar.

Pero por primera vez en meses parecen haber ciertos indicios de que puede haber un aterrizaje suave después de todo.

[admin]

Las ventas de casas en China cayeron 18% en el primer trimestre. No tan suave el aterrizaje.


China Property-Sales Drop Shows Risk of Hard Landing
By Bloomberg News - Apr 13, 2012 12:00 PM ET

China’s 18 percent first-quarter drop in home sales contributed to the slowest economic expansion in almost three years, highlighting the challenge for leaders who want to curb property prices without sinking growth.
The value of homes sold declined to 709.9 billion yuan ($112.7 billion) from a year earlier, the National Bureau of Statistics said in Beijing yesterday. Gross domestic product in the world’s second-biggest economy expanded a below-forecast 8.1 percent from a year earlier, decelerating for a fifth quarter.
Premier Wen Jiabao yesterday reiterated the government will maintain property curbs while ensuring the economy has enough investment to support growth. The stance on real estate risks a so-called hard landing unless authorities start to reverse their position, said Fred Hu, a former chairman of Greater China for Goldman Sachs Group Inc.
“For now the government says it wants to maintain a hard line,” said Hu, chairman of Primavera Capital, a Beijing-based private-equity firm he founded. “Sooner or later they will have to bow to the reality if they don’t want to have a prolonged economic slowdown.”
The benchmark Shanghai Composite Index (SHCOMP) rose 0.4 percent to close at a three-week high. Analysts at Bank of America Corp., Nomura Holdings Inc. and IHS Global Insight said the first quarter may mark a trough, partly on speculation the government will loosen credit by lowering banks’ required reserves.
Reserve-Ratio Cuts
Societe Generale SA’s Yao Wei said growth may decelerate to 7.8 percent in the second quarter on tightening in the property market and a further slowdown in housing investment. Standard Chartered Plc economists gave the same forecast for GDP growth this quarter and projected four more reserve-ratio cuts of 50 basis points each this year. That would bring the ratio to 18.5 percent for the largest banks.
“Faced with a continued weakening of domestic demand, Beijing will have to step up easing measures,” the Standard Chartered analysts said in a note yesterday.
China’s State Council, or Cabinet, pledged to stick with existing property controls and prepare policy tools to cope with economic challenges, according to a government statement yesterday that summarized a meeting chaired by Wen.
The fundamentals of the economy remain sound with growth “within a reasonable range” even as the domestic expansion faces “downward pressures,” the government said, pledging to “maintain an appropriate level of investment.” Macroeconomic policies have “relatively large room to maneuver,” according to the statement, which didn’t repeat a pledge to maintain “prudent” monetary policy and “proactive” fiscal policy.
More Loosening
The statement “appears to be a clear signal that more credit loosening will follow,” Mark Williams, London-based chief Asia economist at Capital Economics Ltd., said in a research note yesterday.
Other data this week showed an economic pickup toward the end of the quarter. New yuan lending was the highest in a year and money-supply growth quickened in March, while industrial production and retail-sales gains accelerated.
The property-market tightening “prevented the government from adopting more measures to support domestic demand earlier,” said Helen Qiao, chief Greater China economist at Morgan Stanley in Hong Kong. At the same time, the government is relaxing some measures “by stealth,” with support for first- time home buyers and expedited construction of low-cost housing projects, she said.
Discounted Loans
Banks in the cities of Beijing, Shanghai and Guangzhou are offering as much as a 15 percent discount off the benchmark interest rate on loans to first-home buyers, China Securities Journal reported April 12, citing property agents it didn’t identify. The central bank said last month it will ensure “loan demand from first-home families” is met.
Chinese developers including Fosun International Ltd. and Sino-Ocean Land Holdings Ltd. are setting up property funds to diversify their sources of revenue as real-estate curbs have led to a cash shortage, company executives said last month.
Investments in homes, office buildings, malls and other real estate gained 24 percent to 1.09 trillion yuan from January to March, according to the statistics bureau, slower than the 35 percent gain in the year-earlier period. New property construction increased 0.3 percent to 399.5 million square meters (4.3 billion square feet).
Sheng Laiyun, spokesman for the statistics bureau, said at a press conference yesterday that “controlling property bubbles will certainly affect relevant investments or even housing- related consumption.”
“But from a medium- to long-term perspective, the property curbs don’t conflict with the goal of economic growth,” as the curbs are meant to “maintain steady and healthy development” of the housing market and sustainable growth, Sheng said.
Housing Difficulties
China’s private housing market may see its “most difficult period” in the first half with “some stabilization” after that, JPMorgan Chase & Co. economists led by Zhu Haibin in Hong Kong said in a research note yesterday.
The bank cut its forecast for China’s economy to an 8.2 percent expansion in 2012 from 8.4 percent, citing the first quarter’s “weaker-than-expected” performance.
“The property sector is where most concerns lie,” Williams said in the note. “The biggest near-term threat to growth is that construction activity does stall.”
--Kevin Hamlin, Victoria Ruan. With assistance from Bonnie Cao in Shanghai. Editors: Scott Lanman, Nerys Avery

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Ministro Espanol pide al ECB que compre mas bonos para aliviar la crisis.

Los yields de Espana han subido a 5.98% y muchos especulan que sera el proximo pais que necesite ser rescatado.

Spanish Minister Asks ECB to Buy Bonds as Crisis Deepens
By Emma Ross-Thomas - Apr 14, 2012 10:16 AM ET

A Spanish minister called on the European Central Bank to do more to stem the sovereign debt crisis as the cost of insuring the country’s bonds against default surged to a record.

“They should step up purchases of bonds,” Jaime Garcia- Legaz, a deputy minister in Luis de Guindos’s Economy Ministry, said yesterday in an interview.

His comments came as ECB officials split over the steps to tame the crisis amid growing expectations that Spain will be the next euro member to seek a European bailout. Spanish banks’ borrowings from the ECB surged almost 50 percent in March, data showed yesterday, as they took almost a third of the longer-term lending offered to euro-region institutions.

Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy is struggling to convince investors he can get Spain’s finances under control after last month refusing to meet deficit targets set by the European Commission and the previous government. While Rajoy said on April 12 Spain won’t need a rescue, credit-default swaps rose 17 basis points to 498 yesterday, surpassing the all-time high closing price of 493, according to CMA.

The yield on Spain’s 10-year bonds rose 16 basis points to 5.98 percent, edging closer to the 7 percent level that pushed Greece, Ireland and Portugal into rescues.

Rajoy’s austerity plan today won the support of leaders from the 12 regions where his Peoples Party governs. There are 17 in total. The PP’s regional presidents pledged to cut public services, eliminate duplication between different levels of government and write deficit targets into their budget laws.

Extraordinary Measures
Garcia-Legaz’s comments go beyond those of his prime minister, who has repeatedly praised the ECB’s extraordinary liquidity measures. Budget Minister Cristobal Montoro referred yesterday to the “importance of the role” of European institutions in fighting the crisis.

“If you’re demanding ultra-restrictive fiscal policies from Spain and Italy then it makes sense to have monetary policy with stronger bond purchases,” said Garcia-Legaz, a former secretary general of the Faes research institute that’s linked to the ruling People’s Party.

ECB officials are nevertheless struggling to present a united front over what to do next as investors dump Spanish bonds amid renewed concern about bad assets at the country’s banks.

ECB Split
While Executive Board member Benoit Coeure signaled on April 11 the bank may start buying Spanish bonds, his Dutch colleague Klaas Knot said yesterday that the ECB is “very far” from reactivating a policy that failed to stop a selloff in Spanish bonds in November.

“I hope we never have to use it again,” he said in Amsterdam.

Spanish yields surged above 6 percent in August, prompting the ECB to start buying bonds, and reached 6.78 percent in November before ECB President Mario Draghi said the bank would offer financial institutions unlimited three-year loans.

That measure helped tame Spanish borrowing costs, as institutions used ECB funds to pile up on the nation’s bonds. Spanish banks’ holdings of government debt jumped to 220 billion euros ($288 billion) in January from 178 billion euros in November, according to data from the Treasury.

Net Borrowing
Average net borrowings from the ECB by Spanish banks climbed to 227.6 billion euros last month from 152.4 billion euros in February, the Bank of Spain said yesterday on its website. In net terms, they tapped more than 60 percent of the amount taken by euro-region lenders.

Still, Garcia-Legaz, a former deputy director of Spain’s Treasury who’s now in charge of trade, said Spain won’t have trouble funding itself as the deficit cuts implemented since the government took over in December bolster confidence. The central government faces 11.9 billion euros of bond redemptions in April, 12.7 billion euros in July, and 20.2 billion euros in October, Treasury data show.

“With the profile of redemptions it has and the credibility that will be generated from the deficit reduction, it won’t have problems financing itself,” he said.

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La inflacion haria que Alemania abandone la zona euro por si sola

Hay una palabra que puede malograr el delicado balance de la politica monetaria Europea y puede forzar al Bundesbank contra el resto del ECB y es "inflacion"

La actividad economica reportada por el Bundesbank en Febrero de este anio sugiere que las expectativas inflacionarias estan aumentando en Alemania, presion que podria sin duda descarrilar a una ya tirante y tensa Union Europea.

Pero debido a que el resto de Europa esta atrapada en un spiral inflacionario que demanda medidas acomodativas para ayudarlos, hace que Alemania no pueda combatir la inflacion y por el contrario la esta aumentando. Este es un error fundamental de la politica monetaria de la zona euro donde se aplica una sola politica para todos, cuando Alemania tiene problemas diferentes a la de sus vecinos. Y cuanto mas suba la inflacion en Alemania mas seran los problemas con la Union Europea.

Inflation May Drive Germany Out of the Eurozone

By Vincent Cignarella
There is one word that could upset the delicate balance of European monetary policy and pit the Deutsche Bundesbank against the rest of the ECB and that’s “inflation.”


Economic activity reported by the Bundesbank in its February 2012 Monthly Report suggests that inflationary expectations are building in Germany, pressure that could undoubtedly derail an already strained European Union.

But because much of the rest of the euro zone is trapped in a deflationary spiral that demands accommodative monetary policy to offset it, this advent of German inflation is occurring under overly loose conditions. It’s a fundamental flaw in the euro zone’s one-size-fits-all monetary policy structure. And the more that inflation pressure builds within Germany, the more the tension in this model rises, the greater will be the political problems within the European Union.

There are matches everywhere ready to strike up this tinder box in Germany right now, high oil prices being just one.

Ironically, Germany’s dilemma is the same one that faced nations such as Greece, Spain and Ireland earlier this decade: the inability to influence its own monetary policy will stoke inflation, which in the case of the now debt-laden peripheral nations took the form of asset bubbles.

This is a mirror image of what happened in the years following the integration of the euro, when Germany–much like the peripheral nations now–fell into declining growth. Its government deficit grew above 3% of GDP for four years through to 2005, which forced austerity and stifled growth. This led the ECB to loosen monetary conditions in aid of Germany. But this was too lax for the rest of the euro zone. As excess liquidity sought out yield elsewhere, peripheral economies overheated and housing bubbles overwhelmed Spain, Ireland and other nations.

Now the boot’s on the other foot. Loose credit conditions have been put in place to help peripheral Europe, and these are leading to wage and housing price pressures in Germany. If sustained, the inflationary forces will only exacerbate the already deep rift between the miserly instincts of the Bundesbank and the desire for easy policy within the rest of the ECB. The $1 trillion that the ECB pumped into banks in December and January via its long-term refinancing operations are an example of the latter group’s wishes currently winning out.

It’s hard to see a way out of this conflict. While peripheral Europe flounders under austerity and giant debt loads, Germany flourishes. Unemployment has fallen to 5.8%, creating a scarcity of workers that has attracted large-scale net migration under the EU’s freedom of movement rules.

The result: surging demand for housing, especially in the urban areas. The rate of price increase as calculated by BulwienGesa AG for 125 towns and cities was 5.5% last year, considerably higher than in 2010, which showed a significant 2.5% gain over the prior year. That’s not much by the standards of the pre-crisis U.S., but blazing for Germany.

Meanwhile, wages and salaries per employee rose more sharply in 2011 than at any time since 1993, according to the Bundesbank report. Add to that a recent deal giving Germany’s two million public sector workers a 6.3% wage increase for the next two years and you get fuel being added to a slow-burning fire.

The course has been set for a titanic clash between the ECB and the Bundesbank. A hint of that came on Wednesday, when ECB executive board member Benoit Coeure suggested the ECB had the option of buying Spanish debt if necessary, a plan openly opposed by members of the Bundesbank. Axel Weber, the former Bundesbank president, was said to have resigned in part due to the bond-buying program and current Bundesbank president Jens Weidman has also been an open critic of the policy.

In an Op-Ed piece in Thursday’s Financial Times, George Soros proclaimed that Europe’s future is not up to the Bundesbank. I could not disagree more. Price pressures in Germany will tear apart the core of the EU and threaten its very existence. The economies of Europe will continue to diverge, creating a politically untenable union.

Professor Joseph Stiglitz’s thesis may hold true: The cost for Germany will be so high that it is Germany that will leave the euro first.