Explaining The Stock Market Rebound In 1 Simple Chart
Submitted by Tyler D.
08/28/2015 15:30 -0400
Many were stunned at the pace of the v-shaped recovery in US equity markets this week after Monday and Tuesday's carnage. However, as the following chart makes very clear, there was good reason for it... Having overshot to the downside of "Fed-Balance-Sheet-Implied" levels but around 100 S&P points, the broad index ripped back higher to almost perfectly settle at "Fed Fair Value" - between 1980 and 2000. But, there is a rather ominous event occuring in 2016 that is out of The Fed's control that implies S&P 1,800 unless QE4 is unleashed.
Fed balance sheet implies an S&P level around 1990...
What happens next? Well, Scotiabank's Guy Haselmann has some thoughts...
The Fed's balance sheet has $400 billion of maturities to deal with in early 2016 which the market place is not paying enough attention to.
I believe the Fed will want to allow as much of this as possible to roll off (i.e. the balance sheet will shrink). The decline in the Feds balance sheet is a defacto tightening.
The Fed may be reluctant to do both, i.e. hike, while also allowing the balance sheet to shrink too quickly. They could hike and do some re-investment, but it may be strange re-invest a large portion at the same time that they are hiking.
I believe market turmoil and balance sheet maturities will cause a period of (hike) pauses in 2016. If this is true, Treasury market yields may not rise as high as some pundits are warning.
A $400 billion reduction - which is inevitable unless The Fed unleashes a new QE - means S&P drops to 1800... and further...
Viernes 08/28/15 Simposio economico
Re: Viernes 08/28/15 Simposio economico
por Fenix » Vie Ago 28, 2015 7:49 pm
- Fenix
- Mensajes: 16334
- Registrado: Vie Abr 23, 2010 2:36 am
Re: Viernes 08/28/15 Simposio economico
por Fenix » Vie Ago 28, 2015 7:50 pm
"No Recovery For You!" Brazil Officially Enters Recession, Goldman Calls Numbers "Disquieting"
Submitted by Tyler D.
08/28/2015 - 17:00
You know what they say: when it rains it pours, especially when you’re the poster child for an epic emerging market unwind and you’re suffering through the worst inflation-growth outcome in over a decade while trying to combat dual deficits and ward off political and social upheaval.
Boeing Tests X-Box-Controlled Laser Cannon
Submitted by Tyler D.
08/28/2015 - 19:00
"There’s no flying beams of light, no 'pew! pew!' sound effects. But it is nonetheless a working laser cannon, and it will take your drone down."
Submitted by Tyler D.
08/28/2015 - 17:00
You know what they say: when it rains it pours, especially when you’re the poster child for an epic emerging market unwind and you’re suffering through the worst inflation-growth outcome in over a decade while trying to combat dual deficits and ward off political and social upheaval.
Boeing Tests X-Box-Controlled Laser Cannon
Submitted by Tyler D.
08/28/2015 - 19:00
"There’s no flying beams of light, no 'pew! pew!' sound effects. But it is nonetheless a working laser cannon, and it will take your drone down."
- Fenix
- Mensajes: 16334
- Registrado: Vie Abr 23, 2010 2:36 am
Re: Viernes 08/28/15 Simposio economico
por Fenix » Vie Ago 28, 2015 7:51 pm
How Trump Continues To Lead In The Polls
Submitted by Tyler D.
08/28/2015 - 18:30
Recent polls indicate that, despite public outcry against his incendiary comments on women and minorities, Donald Trump is still the leading Republican candidate.
Here are some reasons Trump stays so popular with his supporters:
* Highly relatable lack of qualifications for holding government office
* Americans’ appreciation for classic underdog story of man who started with only several hundred million dollars and went on to make several billion dollars
* Only candidate to publicly state willingness to make America great again
* Exploits other Republican candidates’ weaknesses by allowing them to open their mouths and speak on issues
* Very, very handsome
* Voters eager to see presidential library with three infinity pools and rooftop driving range
* Bolstered by impassioned endorsement from Donald Trump
* Eccentric, megalomaniac billionaire still more relatable to average American than anyone willing to dedicate life to politics
* Appeals to widespread desire to see nation implode sooner rather than later
Source: The Onion
Submitted by Tyler D.
08/28/2015 - 18:30
Recent polls indicate that, despite public outcry against his incendiary comments on women and minorities, Donald Trump is still the leading Republican candidate.
Here are some reasons Trump stays so popular with his supporters:
* Highly relatable lack of qualifications for holding government office
* Americans’ appreciation for classic underdog story of man who started with only several hundred million dollars and went on to make several billion dollars
* Only candidate to publicly state willingness to make America great again
* Exploits other Republican candidates’ weaknesses by allowing them to open their mouths and speak on issues
* Very, very handsome
* Voters eager to see presidential library with three infinity pools and rooftop driving range
* Bolstered by impassioned endorsement from Donald Trump
* Eccentric, megalomaniac billionaire still more relatable to average American than anyone willing to dedicate life to politics
* Appeals to widespread desire to see nation implode sooner rather than later
Source: The Onion
- Fenix
- Mensajes: 16334
- Registrado: Vie Abr 23, 2010 2:36 am
Re: Viernes 08/28/15 Simposio economico
por Fenix » Vie Ago 28, 2015 7:56 pm
Why QE4 Is Inevitable
Tyler Durden's picture
Submitted by Tyler D.
08/28/2015 13:51 -0400
One narrative we’ve pushed quite hard this week is the idea that China’s persistent FX interventions in support of the yuan are costing the PBoC dearly in terms of reserves. Of course this week's posts hardly represent the first time we've touched on the issue of FX reserve liquidation and its implications for global finance. Here, for those curious, are links to previous discussions:
* China Dumps Record $143 Billion In US Treasurys In Three Months Via Belgium
* China's Record Dumping Of US Treasuries Leaves Goldman Speechless
* How The Petrodollar Quietly Died And Nobody Noticed
* Why It Really All Comes Down To The Death Of The Petrodollar
* Devaluation Stunner: China Has Dumped $100 Billion In Treasurys In The Past Two Weeks
* What China's Treasury Liquidation Means: $1 Trillion QE In Reverse
* It's Official: China Confirms It Has Begun Liquidating Treasuries, Warns Washington
And so on and so forth.
In short, stabilizing the currency in the wake of the August 11 devaluation has precipitated the liquidation of more than $100 billion in USTs in the space of just two weeks, doubling the total sold during the first half of the year.
In the end, the estimated size of the RMB carry trade could mean that before it’s all over, China will liquidate as much as $1 trillion in US paper, which, as we noted on Thursday evening, would effectively negate 60% of QE3 and put somewhere in the neighborhood of 200bps worth of upward pressure on 10Y yields.
And don't forget, this is just China. Should EMs continue to face pressure on their currencies (and there's every reason to believe that they will), you could see substantial drawdowns there too. Meanwhile, all of this mirrors the petrodollar unwind. That is, it all comes back to the notion of recycling USDs into USD assets by the trillions and for decades. Now, between crude's slump, the commodities bust, and China's deval, it's all coming apart at the seams.
Needless to say, this "reverse QE" as we call it (or "quantitative tightening" as Deutsche Bank calls it) has serious implications for Fed policy, for the timing of the elusive "liftoff", and for the US economy more generally. Of course we began detailing the implications of China’s Treasury liquidation months ago and now, it’s become quite apparent that analyzing the consequences of China’s massive FX interventions is perhaps the most important consideration when attempting to determine the future course of global monetary policy.
On that note, we present the following from Deutsche Bank’s George Saravelos, which can be summarized with the following snippet:
The potential for more China outflows is huge: set against 3.6 trio of reserves, China has around 2 trillion of “non-sticky” liabilities including speculative carry trades, debt and equity inflows, deposits by and loans from foreigners that could be a source of outflows (chart 2). The bottom line is that markets may fear that QT has much more to go.
What could turn sentiment more positive? The first is other central banks coming in to fill the gap that the PBoC is leaving. China’s QT would need to be replaced by higher QE elsewhere, with the ECB and BoJ being the most notable candidates... Either way, it is hard to become very optimistic on global risk appetite until a solution is found to China’s evolving QT
In other words, first according to Deutsche, and soon according to virtually all sellside strategists who are slowly but surely grasping the significance of what we have been warning for month on end, QE4 is inevitable. The only problem is that when the Fed pivots from "imminent rate hike" to QE4, it will loose the last shred of credibility it had left. The Fed is now completely trapped.
* * *
Beware China’s Quantitative Tightening
Why have global markets reacted so violently to Chinese developments over the last two weeks? There is a strong case to be made that it is neither the sell-off in Chinese stocks nor weakness in the currency that matters the most. Instead, it is what is happening to China’s FX reserves and what this means for global liquidity. Starting in 2003, China engaged in an unprecedented reserve-accumulation exercise buying almost 4trio of foreign assets, or more than all of the Fed’s QE program’s combined (chart 1). The global impact was indeed equivalent to QE: the PBoC printed domestic money and used the liquidity to buy foreign bonds. Treasury yields stayed low, curves were flat, and people called it the “bond conundrum”.
Fast forward to today and the market is re-assessing the outlook for China’s “QE”. The sudden shift in currency policy has prompted a big shift in RMB expectations towards further weakness and correspondingly a huge rise in China capital outflows, estimated by some to be as much as 200bn USD this month alone. In response, the PBoC has been defending the renminbi, selling FX reserves and reducing its ownership of global fixed income assets. The PBoC’s actions are equivalent to an unwind of QE, or in other words Quantitative Tightening (QT).
What are the implications? For global risk assets, they are clearly negative –global liquidity is falling. For fixed income, the impact on nominal yields is ambivalent because private safe-haven demand for bonds may offset central bank selling. But real yields should move higher, inflation expectations lower, and there should be steepening pressure on curves. This is indeed how markets have responded over the last two weeks: as if the Fed has announced it is unwinding its balance sheet!
The potential for more China outflows is huge: set against 3.6trio of reserves (recorded as an “asset” in the international investment position data), China has around 2trillion of “non-sticky” liabilities including speculative carry trades, debt and equity inflows, deposits by and loans from foreigners that could be a source of outflows (chart 2). The bottom line is that markets may fear that QT has much more to go.
What could turn sentiment more positive? The first is other central banks coming in to fill the gap that the PBoC is leaving. China’s QT would need to be replaced by higher QE elsewhere, with the ECB and BoJ being the most notable candidates. The alternative would be for China’s capital outflows to stop or at least slow down. Perhaps a combination of aggressive PBoC easing and more confidence in the domestic economy would be sufficient, absent a sharp devaluation of the currency to a new stable. Either way, it is hard to become very optimistic on global risk appetite until a solution is found to China’s evolving QT.
*
Tyler Durden's picture
Submitted by Tyler D.
08/28/2015 13:51 -0400
One narrative we’ve pushed quite hard this week is the idea that China’s persistent FX interventions in support of the yuan are costing the PBoC dearly in terms of reserves. Of course this week's posts hardly represent the first time we've touched on the issue of FX reserve liquidation and its implications for global finance. Here, for those curious, are links to previous discussions:
* China Dumps Record $143 Billion In US Treasurys In Three Months Via Belgium
* China's Record Dumping Of US Treasuries Leaves Goldman Speechless
* How The Petrodollar Quietly Died And Nobody Noticed
* Why It Really All Comes Down To The Death Of The Petrodollar
* Devaluation Stunner: China Has Dumped $100 Billion In Treasurys In The Past Two Weeks
* What China's Treasury Liquidation Means: $1 Trillion QE In Reverse
* It's Official: China Confirms It Has Begun Liquidating Treasuries, Warns Washington
And so on and so forth.
In short, stabilizing the currency in the wake of the August 11 devaluation has precipitated the liquidation of more than $100 billion in USTs in the space of just two weeks, doubling the total sold during the first half of the year.
In the end, the estimated size of the RMB carry trade could mean that before it’s all over, China will liquidate as much as $1 trillion in US paper, which, as we noted on Thursday evening, would effectively negate 60% of QE3 and put somewhere in the neighborhood of 200bps worth of upward pressure on 10Y yields.
And don't forget, this is just China. Should EMs continue to face pressure on their currencies (and there's every reason to believe that they will), you could see substantial drawdowns there too. Meanwhile, all of this mirrors the petrodollar unwind. That is, it all comes back to the notion of recycling USDs into USD assets by the trillions and for decades. Now, between crude's slump, the commodities bust, and China's deval, it's all coming apart at the seams.
Needless to say, this "reverse QE" as we call it (or "quantitative tightening" as Deutsche Bank calls it) has serious implications for Fed policy, for the timing of the elusive "liftoff", and for the US economy more generally. Of course we began detailing the implications of China’s Treasury liquidation months ago and now, it’s become quite apparent that analyzing the consequences of China’s massive FX interventions is perhaps the most important consideration when attempting to determine the future course of global monetary policy.
On that note, we present the following from Deutsche Bank’s George Saravelos, which can be summarized with the following snippet:
The potential for more China outflows is huge: set against 3.6 trio of reserves, China has around 2 trillion of “non-sticky” liabilities including speculative carry trades, debt and equity inflows, deposits by and loans from foreigners that could be a source of outflows (chart 2). The bottom line is that markets may fear that QT has much more to go.
What could turn sentiment more positive? The first is other central banks coming in to fill the gap that the PBoC is leaving. China’s QT would need to be replaced by higher QE elsewhere, with the ECB and BoJ being the most notable candidates... Either way, it is hard to become very optimistic on global risk appetite until a solution is found to China’s evolving QT
In other words, first according to Deutsche, and soon according to virtually all sellside strategists who are slowly but surely grasping the significance of what we have been warning for month on end, QE4 is inevitable. The only problem is that when the Fed pivots from "imminent rate hike" to QE4, it will loose the last shred of credibility it had left. The Fed is now completely trapped.
* * *
Beware China’s Quantitative Tightening
Why have global markets reacted so violently to Chinese developments over the last two weeks? There is a strong case to be made that it is neither the sell-off in Chinese stocks nor weakness in the currency that matters the most. Instead, it is what is happening to China’s FX reserves and what this means for global liquidity. Starting in 2003, China engaged in an unprecedented reserve-accumulation exercise buying almost 4trio of foreign assets, or more than all of the Fed’s QE program’s combined (chart 1). The global impact was indeed equivalent to QE: the PBoC printed domestic money and used the liquidity to buy foreign bonds. Treasury yields stayed low, curves were flat, and people called it the “bond conundrum”.
Fast forward to today and the market is re-assessing the outlook for China’s “QE”. The sudden shift in currency policy has prompted a big shift in RMB expectations towards further weakness and correspondingly a huge rise in China capital outflows, estimated by some to be as much as 200bn USD this month alone. In response, the PBoC has been defending the renminbi, selling FX reserves and reducing its ownership of global fixed income assets. The PBoC’s actions are equivalent to an unwind of QE, or in other words Quantitative Tightening (QT).
What are the implications? For global risk assets, they are clearly negative –global liquidity is falling. For fixed income, the impact on nominal yields is ambivalent because private safe-haven demand for bonds may offset central bank selling. But real yields should move higher, inflation expectations lower, and there should be steepening pressure on curves. This is indeed how markets have responded over the last two weeks: as if the Fed has announced it is unwinding its balance sheet!
The potential for more China outflows is huge: set against 3.6trio of reserves (recorded as an “asset” in the international investment position data), China has around 2trillion of “non-sticky” liabilities including speculative carry trades, debt and equity inflows, deposits by and loans from foreigners that could be a source of outflows (chart 2). The bottom line is that markets may fear that QT has much more to go.
What could turn sentiment more positive? The first is other central banks coming in to fill the gap that the PBoC is leaving. China’s QT would need to be replaced by higher QE elsewhere, with the ECB and BoJ being the most notable candidates. The alternative would be for China’s capital outflows to stop or at least slow down. Perhaps a combination of aggressive PBoC easing and more confidence in the domestic economy would be sufficient, absent a sharp devaluation of the currency to a new stable. Either way, it is hard to become very optimistic on global risk appetite until a solution is found to China’s evolving QT.
*
- Fenix
- Mensajes: 16334
- Registrado: Vie Abr 23, 2010 2:36 am
Re: Viernes 08/28/15 Simposio economico
por Fenix » Vie Ago 28, 2015 8:04 pm
The Great Unwind, China Begins Dumping Treasuries
Submitted by Sprott Money on 08/28/2015 09:00 -0400
Hold your real assets outside of this system in a private non-government controlled facility --> http://www.321gold.com/info/053015_sprott.html
The Great Unwind, China Begins Dumping Treasuries
- Written by Nathan McDonald
(Click for Original)
charts from: http://www.globalpost.com/dispatch/news ... reign-debt
Behind the scenes is an event unfolding that has the market shaking in its boots. Yet you don't hear this discussed by the mainstream media, let alone investment bankers.
The reason? It is an event that has been talked about throughout China’s rise to prominence. It has been pondered and feared by Western bankers and politicians. The event I am talking about is the dumping of US treasuries by China.
It is common knowledge, that China has been propping up Western economies over the last decade and longer, it is common knowledge that China has the ability to wipe out the US dollar in one quick motion, by dumping their treasuries on the market.
What is not common knowledge are the recent events that have unfolded behind the scenes in which China has begun this very process.
On August 11th, China unexpectedly devalued the Yuan. This came as a shock to the markets, which saw the currency rapidly plummet by 4% and would have continued to do so if not for the extreme intervention of the Chinese Plunge Protection Team.
Since that time, they have been actively and directly engaging in the Forex markets, where they have propped-up the Yuan and artificially maintained their fix with the US dollar.
How did they do this you ask? By selling US treasuries. That's right, it is being reported, that in the past two weeks alone, China has sold over $106 billion worth of treasuries! But this isn't all, since the start of this year, China has sold an additional $107 billion worth of treasuries!
You read that correctly, not only is China accelerating their dumping of US treasuries, they have hyper-accelerated this process in the last two weeks, dumping almost as much as an entire year’s worth of US treasuries.
Yet, why haven't treasuries collapsed under this huge influx of supply on the market? This is the true question that you have to ask and is not being answered. Who is buying up this huge influx of supply?
Remember, this is a period of time when the world is facing renewed uncertainty and is already awash with fiat dollars. The first and only likely candidate that comes to mind is the FED.
It is highly likely that the FED has been monetizing their own treasuries, in an act that is akin to paying off a credit card with a credit card.
As the situation in China continues to move into the realm of a full-blown crisis, you have to wonder how much more of their massive stockpile of treasuries are they willing to dump on the market? Likewise, how much more can the FED handle before the market wakes up and sees this Ponzi scheme for what it is?
Please email with any questions about this article or precious metals HERE
Hold your real assets outside of this system in a private non-government controlled facility --> http://www.321gold.com/info/053015_sprott.html
Submitted by Sprott Money on 08/28/2015 09:00 -0400
Hold your real assets outside of this system in a private non-government controlled facility --> http://www.321gold.com/info/053015_sprott.html
The Great Unwind, China Begins Dumping Treasuries
- Written by Nathan McDonald
(Click for Original)
charts from: http://www.globalpost.com/dispatch/news ... reign-debt
Behind the scenes is an event unfolding that has the market shaking in its boots. Yet you don't hear this discussed by the mainstream media, let alone investment bankers.
The reason? It is an event that has been talked about throughout China’s rise to prominence. It has been pondered and feared by Western bankers and politicians. The event I am talking about is the dumping of US treasuries by China.
It is common knowledge, that China has been propping up Western economies over the last decade and longer, it is common knowledge that China has the ability to wipe out the US dollar in one quick motion, by dumping their treasuries on the market.
What is not common knowledge are the recent events that have unfolded behind the scenes in which China has begun this very process.
On August 11th, China unexpectedly devalued the Yuan. This came as a shock to the markets, which saw the currency rapidly plummet by 4% and would have continued to do so if not for the extreme intervention of the Chinese Plunge Protection Team.
Since that time, they have been actively and directly engaging in the Forex markets, where they have propped-up the Yuan and artificially maintained their fix with the US dollar.
How did they do this you ask? By selling US treasuries. That's right, it is being reported, that in the past two weeks alone, China has sold over $106 billion worth of treasuries! But this isn't all, since the start of this year, China has sold an additional $107 billion worth of treasuries!
You read that correctly, not only is China accelerating their dumping of US treasuries, they have hyper-accelerated this process in the last two weeks, dumping almost as much as an entire year’s worth of US treasuries.
Yet, why haven't treasuries collapsed under this huge influx of supply on the market? This is the true question that you have to ask and is not being answered. Who is buying up this huge influx of supply?
Remember, this is a period of time when the world is facing renewed uncertainty and is already awash with fiat dollars. The first and only likely candidate that comes to mind is the FED.
It is highly likely that the FED has been monetizing their own treasuries, in an act that is akin to paying off a credit card with a credit card.
As the situation in China continues to move into the realm of a full-blown crisis, you have to wonder how much more of their massive stockpile of treasuries are they willing to dump on the market? Likewise, how much more can the FED handle before the market wakes up and sees this Ponzi scheme for what it is?
Please email with any questions about this article or precious metals HERE
Hold your real assets outside of this system in a private non-government controlled facility --> http://www.321gold.com/info/053015_sprott.html
- Fenix
- Mensajes: 16334
- Registrado: Vie Abr 23, 2010 2:36 am
Re: Viernes 08/28/15 Simposio economico
por Fenix » Vie Ago 28, 2015 8:08 pm
Demand Surge and Shortages of Bullion as Stocks Fall Sharply
Submitted by GoldCore on 08/28/2015 10:27 -0400
DAILY PRICESToday’s Gold Prices: USD 1,125.50, EUR 998.23 and GBP 730.99 per ounce
Yesterday’s Gold Prices: USD 1128.50, EUR 999.38 and GBP 728.91 per ounce.
(LBMA AM)
- Einstein, Physics, Gold and The Formula To End Economic Decay
- Demand Surge and Shortages of Bullion as Stocks Fall Sharply
- New 'Bullion Coin and Bar Premiums and Availability' - See Table
- Gold Outperforms All Assets In August - See Table
[Month to Date Relative Performance]
Gold Outperforms All Assets In August
As month end approaches, gold has outperformed the vast majority of major assets (see table above) and is nearly 3% higher in August while leading stock indices have fallen by more than 6% and some crashed by 20% this week prior to the recent bounce.
We are extremely busy and this was one of the busiest weeks of the year so far - both in terms of number of transactions and total volume in dollar sales terms. This increase in physical demand should lead to higher prices in the coming weeks.
This has been the case for bullion refiners, mints and dealers all of whom say very high demand for physical this week. Indeed there are again supply bottlenecks and shortages of many popular bullion coins and bars - especially silver bullion coins and bars (see table below).
Read more on GoldCore.com
Important News
Gold Up in Asia Trade – The Wall Street Journal
Gold Pares Biggest Weekly Drop in Month on U.S. Growth Concern – Bloomberg
European Stocks Decline, Erasing Gains in Roller Coaster Week – Bloomberg
Oil prices extend gains after biggest daily climb in six years – Reuters
Federal Reserve Increasing Scrutiny of Bank Payment Systems – The Wall Street Journal
Important Analysis
Reflation threat to bonds as money supply catches fire in Europe – The Telegraph
Optimism for Africa despite threat from China downturn – The Telegraph
This Weird Story Suggests Gold and Miners Are Near a Bottom – Casey Research
Gold and Silver Have Never Been This Cheap – GoldSeek
Expect markets to fall 20 to 40 percent: Marc Faber – Yahoo Finance
More breaking News & Commentary from GoldCore.com
Submitted by GoldCore on 08/28/2015 10:27 -0400
DAILY PRICESToday’s Gold Prices: USD 1,125.50, EUR 998.23 and GBP 730.99 per ounce
Yesterday’s Gold Prices: USD 1128.50, EUR 999.38 and GBP 728.91 per ounce.
(LBMA AM)
- Einstein, Physics, Gold and The Formula To End Economic Decay
- Demand Surge and Shortages of Bullion as Stocks Fall Sharply
- New 'Bullion Coin and Bar Premiums and Availability' - See Table
- Gold Outperforms All Assets In August - See Table
[Month to Date Relative Performance]
Gold Outperforms All Assets In August
As month end approaches, gold has outperformed the vast majority of major assets (see table above) and is nearly 3% higher in August while leading stock indices have fallen by more than 6% and some crashed by 20% this week prior to the recent bounce.
We are extremely busy and this was one of the busiest weeks of the year so far - both in terms of number of transactions and total volume in dollar sales terms. This increase in physical demand should lead to higher prices in the coming weeks.
This has been the case for bullion refiners, mints and dealers all of whom say very high demand for physical this week. Indeed there are again supply bottlenecks and shortages of many popular bullion coins and bars - especially silver bullion coins and bars (see table below).
Read more on GoldCore.com
Important News
Gold Up in Asia Trade – The Wall Street Journal
Gold Pares Biggest Weekly Drop in Month on U.S. Growth Concern – Bloomberg
European Stocks Decline, Erasing Gains in Roller Coaster Week – Bloomberg
Oil prices extend gains after biggest daily climb in six years – Reuters
Federal Reserve Increasing Scrutiny of Bank Payment Systems – The Wall Street Journal
Important Analysis
Reflation threat to bonds as money supply catches fire in Europe – The Telegraph
Optimism for Africa despite threat from China downturn – The Telegraph
This Weird Story Suggests Gold and Miners Are Near a Bottom – Casey Research
Gold and Silver Have Never Been This Cheap – GoldSeek
Expect markets to fall 20 to 40 percent: Marc Faber – Yahoo Finance
More breaking News & Commentary from GoldCore.com
- Fenix
- Mensajes: 16334
- Registrado: Vie Abr 23, 2010 2:36 am
Re: Viernes 08/28/15 Simposio economico
por admin » Vie Ago 28, 2015 10:24 pm
S&P baja sus perspectivas de crecimiento para Perú
(Reuters) - La agencia de calificación de riesgos Standard & Poor's recortó su pronóstico de crecimiento de tendencia para Perú entre 2015 y 2018, porque considera que ya no tendrá una expansión económica superior a la de países con ingresos por habitante comparables.
S&P espera que en el período la economía peruana crezca en promedio un 3,7 por ciento, lo que se compara con una expectativa previa de un aumento de la actividad consistentemente por encima del 5 por ciento.
"La caída global de las materias primas ha exacerbado los retrasos de inversiones mineras importantes junto a la oposición local a algunos proyectos, parte de los cuáles probablemente no avanzarán", dijo la agencia en un comunicado.
"Pese a los esfuerzos para contrarrestar la desaceleración, también debida a los efectos de El Niño en el tiempo atmosférico, el crecimiento en 2014 y 2015 ha sido menor a lo esperado en un principio. Ahora esperamos que la tendencia de crecimiento sea menor ante la ausencia de esfuerzos concertados y exitosos para avanzar en reformas estructurales", añadió.
La agencia mantuvo la calificación soberana del país en 'BBB+' con perspectiva estable.
(Reuters) - La agencia de calificación de riesgos Standard & Poor's recortó su pronóstico de crecimiento de tendencia para Perú entre 2015 y 2018, porque considera que ya no tendrá una expansión económica superior a la de países con ingresos por habitante comparables.
S&P espera que en el período la economía peruana crezca en promedio un 3,7 por ciento, lo que se compara con una expectativa previa de un aumento de la actividad consistentemente por encima del 5 por ciento.
"La caída global de las materias primas ha exacerbado los retrasos de inversiones mineras importantes junto a la oposición local a algunos proyectos, parte de los cuáles probablemente no avanzarán", dijo la agencia en un comunicado.
"Pese a los esfuerzos para contrarrestar la desaceleración, también debida a los efectos de El Niño en el tiempo atmosférico, el crecimiento en 2014 y 2015 ha sido menor a lo esperado en un principio. Ahora esperamos que la tendencia de crecimiento sea menor ante la ausencia de esfuerzos concertados y exitosos para avanzar en reformas estructurales", añadió.
La agencia mantuvo la calificación soberana del país en 'BBB+' con perspectiva estable.
- admin
- Site Admin
- Mensajes: 164292
- Registrado: Mié Abr 21, 2010 9:02 pm
Re: Viernes 08/28/15 Simposio economico
por admin » Vie Ago 28, 2015 10:26 pm
Economía de Brasil se contrae en segundo trimestre por recesión
SAO PAULO (Reuters) - La economía de Brasil se contrajo un 1,9 por ciento en el segundo trimestre, sumiendo al país en una recesión que ha diezmado la popularidad de la presidenta Dilma Rousseff, que lucha por preservar la nota de grado de inversión en la mayor economía de América Latina en medio de un enorme escándalo de corrupción.
La contracción trimestral, reportada el viernes por el estatal Instituto Brasileño de Geografía y Estadística (IBGE), fue mayor a la baja del 1,7 por ciento esperada por el mercado, según la mediana de las estimaciones de 26 analistas consultados en un sondeo de Reuters.
El IBGE también revisó el crecimiento del primer trimestre a una contracción de 0,7 por ciento, más que el declive del 0,2 por ciento reportado en mayo.
Los esfuerzos de Rousseff por recortar el gasto, aumentar los impuestos y contener la inflación han hecho poco por restaurar la confianza de los consumidores e inversores y han generado problemas al interior de la coalición de Gobierno.
La inversión cayó un 8,1 por ciento, un declive por octavo trimestre consecutivo, en la racha bajista más larga desde el inicio de la serie actual de datos en 1996.
El consumo de los hogares bajó un 2,1 por ciento debido a que el desempleo alcanzó máximos en cinco años y los precios al consumidor escalaron cerca de un 9 por ciento en 12 meses.
El índice de aprobación a Rousseff ha caído a cifras de un dígito en sondeos recientes mientras la economía se estanca y la situación política empeora, ante crecientes evidencias de un esquema de sobornos en que se sustrajeron miles de millones de dólares de empresas estatales.
(Reporte de Brad Haynes y Silvio Cascione; reporte adicional de Rodrigo Viga Gaier y Caio Saad en Río de Janeiro. Editado en español por Patricio Abusleme)
SAO PAULO (Reuters) - La economía de Brasil se contrajo un 1,9 por ciento en el segundo trimestre, sumiendo al país en una recesión que ha diezmado la popularidad de la presidenta Dilma Rousseff, que lucha por preservar la nota de grado de inversión en la mayor economía de América Latina en medio de un enorme escándalo de corrupción.
La contracción trimestral, reportada el viernes por el estatal Instituto Brasileño de Geografía y Estadística (IBGE), fue mayor a la baja del 1,7 por ciento esperada por el mercado, según la mediana de las estimaciones de 26 analistas consultados en un sondeo de Reuters.
El IBGE también revisó el crecimiento del primer trimestre a una contracción de 0,7 por ciento, más que el declive del 0,2 por ciento reportado en mayo.
Los esfuerzos de Rousseff por recortar el gasto, aumentar los impuestos y contener la inflación han hecho poco por restaurar la confianza de los consumidores e inversores y han generado problemas al interior de la coalición de Gobierno.
La inversión cayó un 8,1 por ciento, un declive por octavo trimestre consecutivo, en la racha bajista más larga desde el inicio de la serie actual de datos en 1996.
El consumo de los hogares bajó un 2,1 por ciento debido a que el desempleo alcanzó máximos en cinco años y los precios al consumidor escalaron cerca de un 9 por ciento en 12 meses.
El índice de aprobación a Rousseff ha caído a cifras de un dígito en sondeos recientes mientras la economía se estanca y la situación política empeora, ante crecientes evidencias de un esquema de sobornos en que se sustrajeron miles de millones de dólares de empresas estatales.
(Reporte de Brad Haynes y Silvio Cascione; reporte adicional de Rodrigo Viga Gaier y Caio Saad en Río de Janeiro. Editado en español por Patricio Abusleme)
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Re: Viernes 08/28/15 Simposio economico
por admin » Sab Ago 29, 2015 7:46 am
BCR: Reservas Internacionales suben a US$61.255 millones
BCR: Reservas Internacionales suben a US$61.255 millones
Las reservas internacionales netas (RIN) subieron a US$ 61 255 millones al 25 de agosto de este año, su nivel diario más alto en los últimos cuatro meses, informó el BCR.
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Este nivel es equivalente a alrededor de 30% del PBI peruano, el ratio más alto entre las principales economías de la región.
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Las reservas internacionales permiten enfrentar la turbulencia financiera internacional, moderando la volatilidad del tipo de cambio, considerando que la economía peruana se encuentra parcialmente dolarizada y una fuerte depreciación podría tener impacto negativo en los agentes económicos endeudados en moneda extranjera.
BCR: Reservas Internacionales suben a US$61.255 millones
El BCR acumuló reservas internacionales en años de influjos de capitales en previsión a las volatilidades que hoy se han materializado. Así, en 2012 se compraron más de US$ 13 000 millones y desde entonces se han utilizado, en neto, alrededor de US$ 10 000 millones para moderar la depreciación cambiaria.
BCR: Reservas Internacionales suben a US$61.255 millones
Las reservas internacionales netas (RIN) subieron a US$ 61 255 millones al 25 de agosto de este año, su nivel diario más alto en los últimos cuatro meses, informó el BCR.
Follow @PortafolioECpe
Este nivel es equivalente a alrededor de 30% del PBI peruano, el ratio más alto entre las principales economías de la región.
Sigue a Portafolio también en Facebook
Las reservas internacionales permiten enfrentar la turbulencia financiera internacional, moderando la volatilidad del tipo de cambio, considerando que la economía peruana se encuentra parcialmente dolarizada y una fuerte depreciación podría tener impacto negativo en los agentes económicos endeudados en moneda extranjera.
BCR: Reservas Internacionales suben a US$61.255 millones
El BCR acumuló reservas internacionales en años de influjos de capitales en previsión a las volatilidades que hoy se han materializado. Así, en 2012 se compraron más de US$ 13 000 millones y desde entonces se han utilizado, en neto, alrededor de US$ 10 000 millones para moderar la depreciación cambiaria.
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