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Peru’s Dollar Bonds Sink as Ex-Chavez Ally Humala Claims Election Victory
By John Quigley - Jun 6, 2011 9:42 AM ET .
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Business ExchangeBuzz up!DiggPrint Email .. Peru’s Nationalist Party Leader Ollanta Humala. Photographer: Cris Bouroncle/AFP/Getty Images
.Peru’s stocks tumbled the most in two years and dollar bonds fell after former army rebel Ollanta Humala claimed victory in the country’s presidential runoff yesterday and sparked concern that he will seek greater state control of the economy.
Peru’s benchmark Lima General Index of stocks sank the most since October 2008, retreating 8.7 percent to 19,378.78 at 9:38 a.m. New York time. Yields on dollar-denominated bonds due 2037 rose 17 basis points, or 0.17 percentage point, to 5.91 percent, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
Humala, 48, leader of the Nationalist Party and a one-time ally of Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez, had 51.3 percent of votes compared to 48.7 percent for Congresswoman Keiko Fujimori with 88 percent of votes counted. Polls last week showed the candidates were tied. While Humala shifted during the campaign to defending policies that made Peru the fastest growing Latin American economy over the past decade, investors remain concerned he will raise mining royalties and impose greater state control over natural resources.
“The economy isn’t going to be better off if they are start making things difficult for foreign investors,” said Kieran Curtis, who helps manage $3.5 billion at Aviva Investors in London, including Peruvian dollar bonds. “Investors are going to want to get rid of policy uncertainty before putting any money to work.”
The cost to protect Peru’s debt from non-payment with credit-default swaps jumped 20 basis points to 168, the highest since April 27, according to data provider CMA in London. The sol weakened 0.3 percent last week to 2.7631 per U.S. dollar.
Campaign Rhetoric
To broaden his appeal to Peru’s growing middle class, Humala abandoned rhetoric against foreign mining and natural resource companies used during the 2006 campaign, when he lost the presidency to Alan Garcia by five percentage points. Humala shelved his 198-page campaign platform to back away from an earlier pledge to rewrite the constitution and unilaterally raise royalty fees on mining and gas production.
Peru is the world’s top silver producer, third in copper and zinc and sixth in gold. Export revenue from mineral exports rose by 27 percent to a record $21 billion on surging prices.
Southern Copper Corp. (SCCO), Peru’s biggest producer of the metal, fell 8.6 percent in U.S. trading to $31.73.
Hochschild Mining Plc (HOC), a producer of silver in Peru, fell to its lowest in four months in London trading, declining 8.7 percent to 498.8 pence.
Spread to Treasuries
The yield spread on Peru dollar notes relative to U.S. Treasuries climbed 11 basis points to 203, according to JPMorgan Chase & Co.
Fujimori, the daughter of former President Alberto Fujimori, told supporters last night she is awaiting final results and will “be the first” to recognize a defeat to Humala. Humala said Keiko Fujimori turned a blind eye to the corruption and human rights abuses of her father when she served as first lady during his government from 1990 to 2000.
“While Humala moderated his tone throughout the campaign and certainly compared to the 2006 election, investors are likely to react negatively as uncertainty is still high,” Societe Generale SA strategists led by Benoit Anne in London wrote in a research report.
Humala has pledged to extend the country’s mining boom to the nation’s poor.
“The people have been waiting a long time for change,” Humala told thousands of supporters at a midnight rally in downtown Lima. “It’s not possible to say that the country is progressing when 12 million people are living in extreme poverty without electricity or running water.”
New Government
Last night, as supporters chanted “Keep the Gas in Peru,” Humala said he would seek broad backing for his policies and form a government comprised of the most-qualified people independent of their political affiliation.
“The natural resource companies will be the first ones sold by risk-averse investors,” said Richard Segal, a fixed- income strategist at Jefferies International Ltd. in London. “If he appoints a cabinet quickly and seeks to govern from the center, the damage to market sentiment could be limited.”
Foreign investors moved money into Peru last year as metal prices surged and the economy grew at the second-fastest pace in 16 years, prompting the central bank to raise borrowing costs to contain inflation.
“Investors may pull out of the local currency soberanos bonds as foreigners piled in quickly between May and November of last year,” said Joe Kogan, head of emerging markets strategy at Scotia Capital Markets Inc. in New York. “They haven’t left and they are waiting to see what happens.”
In the two weeks after Humala topped the field in the first Round April 10, sol-denominated bond yields rose to a two-year high and the currency fell to a 10-month low.
To contact the reporter on this story: John Quigley in Lima at jquigley8@bloom