por admin » Vie Jun 17, 2011 10:59 am
El IMF recorta el estimado de crecimiento mundial a 4.3%, el riesgo de la debilidad en US y la crisis en Europa presentan un riesgo mas grande del anticipado anteriormente.
EUROPE NEWSJUNE 17, 2011, 11:01 A.M. ET
IMF Cuts Growth Forecast for Global Economy
By IAN TALLEY
WASHINGTON—The International Monetary Fund on Friday slightly lowered its estimate for global growth for this year to 4.3%, and said Europe's debt crisis and unexpectedly weak growth in the U.S. pose greater dangers to the global recovery than originally forecast.
In Europe, the Greek debt crisis is escalating, with fresh concerns over Athens's political commitment to bailout terms and an impasse among European officials over how to finance Greece's growing financing gap. The risk of the country's default—and its problems contaminating the rest of Europe—is rapidly rising.
In an update to its report on global economic prospects, the IMF revised down U.S. growth for the year by 0.3 percentage point to 2.5% and lowered next year's growth to 2.7%. The IMF partly blamed temporary factors: high commodity prices, bad weather and the impact of Japan's catastrophe on its manufacturing sector weighing on U.S. prospects.
Anemic growth in the U.S. was largely offset by stronger-than-expected growth in core European economies Germany and France.
The fund said the earthquake, tsunami and subsequent nuclear crisis caused it to ratchet down its growth estimate for Japan for this year by 2.1 percentage points to a 0.7% contraction.
Growth in most emerging markets continues to be strong, a primary driver for growth for this year and forecasted 4.5% growth in 2012. The IMF said, however, that the signs of overheating are becoming increasingly apparent in many of those economies. The IMF revised Brazil's prospects down around half a percentage point to 4.1% this year and 3.6% in 2011.
Overall, the fund expects global activity will pick up in the second half of the year after slowing in the second quarter. "The fundamental drivers of growth remain in place," the fund said, pointing to expansionary government policies, pent-up demand for consumer goods, and investment and strong growth potential in emerging markets.
For rich and developing economies alike, the IMF prescription is for hefty adjustment. Belt-tightening and financial repair in advanced nations and faster response from emerging market authorities to rising asset and commodity prices "are critical for securing growth and job creation over the medium term," fund staff said.
Action in Europe is particularly critical, the IMF warned.
"In the euro-area periphery, there is no way around ambitious structural reforms to boost competitiveness and revive employment growth, along with front-loaded fiscal adjustment and balance-sheet repair to restore market confidence and ameliorate the pressure on sovereign and bank spreads," staff said.
In Asia, exchange-rate appreciation and structural reforms are top priorities, the fund said. Monetary policy in advanced economies needs to remain accommodative, but central banks must guard against further increases in core inflation, it said.