por admin » Mar Abr 27, 2010 8:56 pm
La crisis se expande en Europa
Hay miedo al contagio debido a los downgrades de Grecia y Portugal, los mercados de todo el mundo caen fuerte.
Selloff en todos los mercados alrededor de todo el mundo. Esta es una prueba para Europa y su capacidad de proteger su moneda comun: el euro.
El euro cae a su nivel mas bajo en un anio.
La reaccion del mercado ha demostrado que todos los esfuerzos de Europa por contener la crisis de Grecia ha fracasado.
Los inversionistas estan preocupados ante lo "inimaginable" un contagio generalizado en Europa.
El futuro del euro esta en las manos de Alemania.
Crisis Spreads in Europe
Debt Downgrades in Portugal, Greece Sow Fear of Contagion; World Markets Hit.
By MATTHEW KARNITSCHNIG, STEPHEN FIDLER and TOM LAURICELLA
Europe's hopes of containing Greece's credit crisis dimmed as the country's debt woes spread to Portugal, sparking a selloff in markets across the globe and testing the European Union's ability to protect its common currency.
The euro tumbled to its lowest point in a year against the dollar after Standard & Poor's Ratings Services cut Portugal's credit rating two notches and downgraded Greece's debt to "junk" territory, a first for a euro-zone member. The move is bound to worsen Greece's already dire fiscal situation and hamper a recovery. The news sent the bond yields in both countries soaring, a sign of distress.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 213.04 points, or 1.9%, to 10991.99, suffering its worst decline in both point and percentage terms since Feb. 4. The pan-European Stoxx Europe 600 index tumbled 3.1%. As investors opted for the safety of bonds, the yield on Germany's 10-year benchmark was pushed down to 2.99%, moving below 3% for the first time in more than a year. Yields on U.S. Treasurys also dropped as investors bought.
The force of the market reaction to the downgrades suggests that the EU's fraught, months-long effort to stem Greece's debt crisis has all but failed. Portugal's stagnant economy has been viewed as among the weakest in the euro zone, although its deficit and debt levels aren't as high as Greece's. The debt downgrade on Tuesday, to A- from A+, fueled concerns that Portugal is on the same trajectory as its southern neighbor, despite its more solid fiscal position.
Greece's own turmoil was triggered in part by a similar ratings downgrade in December amid growing concerns about its debt.
"Investors are increasingly thinking about the risk of the unthinkable in Europe," said Stu Schweitzer, a global market strategist at J.P. Morgan Private Bank in New York. "The concern is contagion."
That reality will force EU policy makers to confront the prospect that the crisis could spread to larger economies, in particular Spain. Greece and Portugal are small countries that account for only a fraction of the euro zone's economy and most economists believe that the EU, if necessary, could bail them both out. That isn't true for Spain, however, a country of 46 million and the euro zone's fourth-largest economy.
Spain, which is trying to emerge from a steep recession following a housing bubble, is running a 11.2% budget deficit. That compares to Portugal's 9.4% deficit and Greece's 13.6% deficit.
Like past debt crises, this one has fed on itself. Europe's failure to act decisively has led investors to sell off Greek debt, making it far more expensive for the country to borrow money, and prompting further downgrades. The worry now is that this process will be repeated in Portugal.
News of Tuesday's rating cuts came as investors were already unnerved by signs that a €45 billion ($60 billion) aid package for Greece from the EU and the International Monetary Fund could be delayed by political infighting in Germany.
European Central Bank President Jean Claude Trichet and IMF Managing Director Dominique Strauss-Kahn are expected to meet with German lawmakers in Berlin on Wednesday and urge them to act quickly on the EU's aid package.
The shuttle diplomacy amid the worsening market turmoil suggests officials' previous claims of an EU-wide consensus on a rescue were premature.
Germany is slated to provide about €8.4 billion of the EU's €30 billion in rescue loans. A solid majority of German voters oppose Chancellor Angela Merkel's commitment to come to Greece's rescue. A number of lawmakers in Ms. Merkel's own center-right coalition, as well as opposition parties, have also criticized the rescue plan.
Political debate in Germany over the Greek bailout has become particularly heated in recent days because the issue has blown up in the midst of a campaign for a crucial regional election set for May 9 that could influence the balance of power in Germany's national parliament.
That has led a number of German politicians to berate the government over its handling of the Greek crisis, playing to domestic opinion even as other EU governments accuse Germany of unsettling financial markets.
"What it's down to is whether Germany is going to step up to the plate and vote in support of the euro," said Mark Dowding, head of institutional fixed income in Europe for DB Advisors.
"You have a number of countries in Europe who have sovereign debt situations where the debt burden is barely sustainable, particularly if yields move higher," Mr. Dowding said. "The thinking is that if a package is not agreed to on a timely basis, effectively what you could be looking at unfolding is the European sovereign version of the Lehman crisis."
Germany is ultimately expected to contribute to the Greek rescue, analysts say. Negotiations between Greece, the EU and the IMF are due to be completed by Sunday, allowing EU leaders and the IMF to vote on the plan on May 10, according to a German government paper addressed to Germany's parliament and shown to reporters Tuesday.
That timetable would allow Greece to receive loans before May 19, when the indebted country faces large debt repayments.
As Greek bond yields jumped to record highs, the selling spilled into Portugese, Italian and Spanish bonds. Even Ireland's government bond market took a hit though the country's efforts to get its own fiscal house in order are these days being held up as an example for Greece to follow.
Greek Finance Minister George Papaconstantinou spoke with Economy Minister Louka Katseli at the Senate Hall in Parliament in Athens.
.The impact of the ratings downgrade and growing aversion to European government debt was clearest in the market for short-term Portugese debt. The gap between the yield on that country's 2-year notes exploded to 4.3 percentage points above comparable German debt from 3.1 percentage points Monday. A week ago that spread stood at 1.4 percentage point.
Spanish debt also took a big hit. The spread on two-year securities jumped to 1.10 percentage points over German debt from 0.7 percentage points Tuesday. Such a move in short-term bond prices is an important indicator of investor sentiment because in the event of any debt restructuring, shorter-term securities are likely to be most a risk.
Fred Zorzi, co-head of global bond syndicate for BNP Paribas in London, noted that while there are clear signs of contagion from Greece into Spain and Portugal off the day's news, to some degree the selloff also reflected a readjustment of the bond market after a rally in those countries during late March and April that now appears to have been misguided.
The S&P report suggests the ratings agencies are now beginning to reflect concerns that have grown in financial markets over the last week—that the Greece bailout won't be enough to stave off a restructuring of Greece's government bond debt. The rating agency also released pessimistic forecasts for Greece's growth prospects, suggesting there will be no real growth in the economy for eight years from 2009.
Analysts said they expect other ratings agencies also to downgrade Greece, but not as sharply as S&P.
But the S&P downgrade will make it more difficult for Greece to raise money in the bond markets at low interest rates, because investors demand higher yields on bonds rated as junk. That increases the chances of a default or of further bailouts by euro-zone governments.
Tuesday in Chicago, Mr. Trichet was asked about the impact that a Greek default might have on other euro-zone nations. "I've always said publicly that default is out of the question," he said.
—Marcus Walker and Brian Blackstone contributed to this article.