por admin » Dom Ago 05, 2012 10:44 am
Feliz Aniversario del downgrade de US
Hace un anio, S&P 500 le quito la triple A a la deuda de US. Desde entonces, la demanda por los bonos del gobierno solo se ha incrementado mas (ironico)
Next Week’s Tape: Happy Anniversary, U.S. Downgrade
By Cynthia Lin
One year ago, S&P stripped the U.S. of its triple-A debt rating. In the time since, demand for Treasury securities has only grown.
Sunday, Aug. 5, marks the one-year anniversary of the U.S.’s downgrade to double-A-plus after Congress struggled to reach a deficit-reduction deal. The unprecedented action sparked a flight into safe-haven assets, with U.S. debt still near the top of many investors’ list of hiding spots.
Another fiscal battle is brewing, but investors aren’t as worried about what this might mean for Treasurys. Even for investors worried about the long-term health of U.S. finances, last August’s reaction showed that Treasurys remain safe.
“Investors are tempered by the experiences from last year,” said Robert Tipp, chief investment strategist at Prudential Fixed Income. “Last year it was a complete unknown with what would happen if we get downgraded. Now we’re beyond that.”
Tipp said the post-downgrade scramble into Treasurys has given investors a “greater sense of comfort with the overall fiscal debate,” knowing U.S. government debt gain in times of uncertainty, even if that uncertainty stems from the market itself.
Over the past year, Treasury prices climbed to their loftiest levels in history, largely due to flight-to-safety buyers spurred on by the euro-zone debt crisis. Benchmark 10-year notes yielded 1.58% late Friday from 2.40% before the August 2011 downgrade. Bond yields fall when prices rise.
“Who would have thought that a year ago people were worried about a spike in yields, but now in fact we’re lower,” said Marc Doss, regional chief investment officer at Wells Fargo Private Bank, who sees 10-year yields possibly sinking to 1%. “In some ironic way, we’re lucky the euro-zone crisis picked up after our downgrade — our political dysfunction looks good relative to theirs.”
The persistent appetite for Treasurys reflects their unique role as a global safe haven. With U.S. dollars still the primary currency used in worldwide transactions and tradable Treasurys standing $10 trillion deep, it remains the go-to hiding place in times of financial and economic stress.
While investors have put more faith behind U.S. debt since the downgrade, analysts warn that the country’s finances haven’t improved. They say if politicians don’t address the problem now, the U.S.’s growing debt burden will eventually catch up with the government and its lenders — though such a predicament is likely a long way off.
Leaders have made little progress in agreeing on a budget that puts the U.S. on a fiscally sustainable path.
Though Europe’s crisis has claimed center stage, the U.S. will again come face to face with its own troubling debt load in the coming months. Elections will put the nation’s spending under a spotlight, and the country is set to approach its borrowing limit early next year.
In June, S&P affirmed its U.S. rating but also kept the outlook negative, citing political and fiscal risks. This means there is at least a one-in-three chance the agency will downgrade the U.S. again by 2014.
More worrisome to investors, however, is potential action by the other two main ratings firms. Fitch and Moody’s each have the U.S. on negative outlook, warning that any risk of missing debt payments threatens its triple-A rating.
Some market observers say Treasurys may not enjoy the same demand upon a downgrade by a second firm. That’s because many investment houses take the average of the three firms’ ratings when following their investment-quality guidelines.
For now, few question Treasurys as the predominant risk-free asset, even if it is by virtue of being the “cleanest dirty shirt” in the laundry, as bond guru Bill Gross puts it.
“For fund managers, the role of Treasurys as a risk-reduction tool is really well understood,” said Rob Robis, portfolio manager at ING Investment Management. “That’ll be hard to break.”
Light data calendar here in the U.S. next week, meaning attention may swing overseas. The earnings calendar is heavy, but with fewer blue chips; Walt Disney, Macy’s, and News Corp. top the list.
MarketWatch’s Laura Mandaro previewed the week this morning on the Markets Hub:
And as always, here’s your handy, clip-and-save data calendar:
Monday:
Economics:
No reports
Earnings:
Boston Properties, Chesapeake Energy, CF Industries, AES, Caesars, THQ, Vornado Realty
Tuesday:
Economics:
June job openings and labor turnover (JOLTs) (10:00 a.m.)
June consumer credit (3:00 p.m.): seen rising $10 billion, after rising $17.1 billion last month.
Earnings:
Walt Disney, Office Depot, Priceline, Sirius XM, Cablevision, Charter Communications, CVS, E.W. Scripps, Live Nation, Molson Coors, Zillow
Wednesday:
Economics:
Second-quarter labor productivity (8:30): seen rising 1.2%, after falling 0.9% in the first quarter.
Second-quarter unit labor costs (8:30): seen rising 0.4%, after rising 1.3% in the first quarter.
Earnings:
Macy’s, News Corp., Carlyle, Dean Foods, Dish Network, Ralph Lauren
Thursday:
Economics:
Weekly jobless claims (8:30): seen rising to 370,000, from 365,000.
June U.S. trade deficit (8:30): seen narrowing to $47.6 billion, after widening to $48.7 billion last month.
June wholesale inventories (10:00): seen rising 0.3%, after rising 0.3% in May.
Earnings:
Kohl’s, Nordstrom, AMC Networks, Brinker, Cooper Tire, Lenovo, Wendy’s, Tim Hortons
Friday:
Economics:
June import prices (8:30): seen flat, after falling 2.7% in May.
July federal budget (2:00 p.m.): seen with a deficit of $99 billion, compared to $59.7 billion a year ago.
Earnings:
Harman, J.C. Penney