por admin » Mié Ago 08, 2012 9:13 pm
La inflacion en China desacelera por cuarto mes consecutivo, le da mas excusas al Premier Wen Jiabao para dar mas medidas para impulsar el crecimiento de la segunda economia mas grande del mundo.
El CPI subio 1.8% con respecto al anio pasado, eso se compara con el 1.7% estimado por los economistas y el 2.2% de aumento en Junio. Los precios de los productores bajaron 2.9% con respecto al anio pasado, quinto mes de caida.
China Consumer Inflation Eases for Fourth Straight Month
By Bloomberg News - Aug 8, 2012 9:45 PM ET
China’s inflation cooled for a fourth straight month in July, providing more room for Premier Wen Jiabao to loosen policies to stem a growth slowdown in the world’s second-biggest economy.
Consumer prices rose 1.8 percent from a year earlier, the National Bureau of Statistics said today in Beijing. That compares with the 1.7 percent median forecast in a Bloomberg News survey of 33 economists and a 2.2 percent gain in June. Producer prices fell 2.9 percent from a year earlier, the fifth straight drop, the report showed.
Gains in consumer prices have moderated from a three-year high of 6.5 percent in July 2011 as food and fuel costs eased.
Gains in consumer prices have moderated from a three-year high of 6.5 percent in July 2011 as food and fuel costs eased. Photographer: Nelson Ching/Bloomberg
.The deceleration in price gains may encourage policy makers to introduce more measures to support growth, aiding Wen’s efforts to reverse an economic slowdown that’s lasted six quarters. Leaders of the ruling Communist Party last week pledged to keep adjusting policies to ensure stable expansion this year.
“Falling inflation is creating more room for further policy easing,” Ding Shuang, a Hong Kong-based economist with Citigroup Inc., said before the release. “Sustained policy support is needed to engineer a growth rebound in the second half.”
The People’s Bank of China may cut lenders’ reserve- requirement ratio by 50 basis points this month, the fourth reduction since November, said Ding, who previously worked for the International Monetary Fund and China’s central bank. Authorities may also lower interest rates by 25 basis points, he said. One basis point equals 0.01 percentage point.
Rebound Risk
Inflation risks rebounding in the next few months in part because of rising international food and commodity costs, which may spill over to domestic prices, Joy Yang, chief China economist at Mirae Asset Securities (HK) Ltd. in Hong Kong, said in a research note yesterday. Accelerating price gains means the window for further interest-rate cuts has closed, assuming no further deterioration in Europe, she said.
The benchmark Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.2 percent as of 9:35 a.m. local time, set for the first decline in five days.
Consumer inflation was the lowest since January 2010. The drop in producer prices compares with the median estimate of 31 analysts for a 2.5 percent decline and the June decrease of 2.1 percent.
The government reports July industrial output and January- July fixed-asset investment later today, gives trade figures tomorrow and will release lending data by Aug. 15.
Below Target
Today’s report marks a sixth month of inflation below the government’s 4 percent target for the year.
China’s gross domestic product expanded 7.6 percent in the second quarter from a year earlier, the slowest pace in three years, as Europe’s debt woes crimped exports and Wen’s campaign to cool consumer and property prices damped domestic demand. Expansion may slide to 7.4 percent this quarter on weakness in overseas sales, Song Guoqing, an adviser to the central bank, said last month.
The country’s slowdown has led to discounts at companies including Gome Electrical Appliances Holding Ltd., the nation’s second-largest electronics retailer, and McDonald’s Corp., the world’s biggest restaurant chain.
The central bank cut interest rates in June and July, the first reductions since 2008, and lowered lenders’ reserve requirements three times since November as part of the government’s efforts to boost lending and support growth.
--Zheng Lifei. With assistance from Zhou Xin in Beijing, Lily Nonomiya in Tokyo and Ailing Tan in Singapore. Editors: Scott Lanman, Nerys Avery