Jackson Hole, Bernanke ... y Draghi tambien
La ultima semana del verano
, pero antes del dia del Trabajo tenemos un dia importante esta semana: Jackson Hole.
Tenemos el symposium anual del Fed, el mas anticipado evento de la semana. Todos estaran atentos a lo que el Fed hara, al igual que lo que el ECB hara, Mario Draghi estara alli tambien.
Next Week’s Tape: Jackson Hole, Bernanke…and Draghi, Too
By Nathalie Tadena and Paul Vigna
Next week is unofficially the last week of summer, but before Labor Day comes to end these dog days and we all trudge off the beach and back to work (except for, ahem, those of us who are already at work), there’s one big, red-letter event next week: Jackson Hole.
Among the barrage of economic reports and handful of earnings on tap for next week, the Federal Reserve’s annual Jackson Hole symposium will be the most anticipated event of the week. Everybody will be looking for any hints of what the Fed and ECB plan to do. That’s because not only will Ben Bernanke be there, but Mario Draghi will be there, too.
Ahead of that, it’s a light week ahead for corporate earnings. Reports from jewelers Tiffany & Co. and Zale Corp. and watchmaker Movado Group Inc. will shed light on the state of luxury spending amid an uncertain global economic environment.
Several retailers are also due to report their same-store sales results for August, an important month for back-to-school sales and an indicator for holiday spending.
Jackson Hole Symposium, Beige Book
The upcoming Federal Reserve Jackson Hole symposium and the Beige Book on Wednesday should offer clues to how central bankers view the economy and possible further accommodation. Those hints will be of keen interest to investors and traders who are hoping for another round of quantitative easing.
Fed Chairman Bernanke’s keynote speech in the Wyoming mountains comes on Friday, so it has the potential to be immediately market-moving (in fact, you can bet that no matter what he says, it’ll move the markets). But the event that could be even more interesting, if not as immediately moving, will be ECB President Mario Draghi’s speech. The only thing is, it comes on Saturday.
Draghi’s the one who put “whatever it takes” right at the center of the table with his big speech this summer, so this is another chance for him to back up his bold words.
Elsewhere, the data side of next week’s calendar will be dominated by factory surveys by regional Feds as well as a second look at second-quarter growth and consumer attitudes about the economy.
Quarterly Earnings Due From Tiffany’s, Zale
Among the companies due to report their latest quarterly results next week are jewelers Tiffany and Zale as well as watchmaker Movado. Analysts polled by Thomson Reuters expect Tiffany to report weaker earnings, while Zale and Movado are projected to post stronger bottom-line results.
Worries about the European sovereign debt crisis have weighed on consumer confidence and luxury spending of late.
After better-than-anticipated sales and earnings growth in the first three quarters of 2011, Tiffany saw sales weaken markedly in the U.S. and Europe during the critical holiday season. In May, the company reduced its full-year expectations, citing slowing economic growth in many countries and softness in U.S. operations. Zale continues to recover from declines spurred by the recession and its own missteps. It has recorded six consecutive quarters of same-store sales growth, though it hasn’t had a profitable fiscal year since before the recession ended.
Other notable companies reporting next week include H.J. Heinz Co., J. Crew Group Inc., Pandora Media Inc., Seadrill Ltd., Splunk Inc. and TiVo Inc.
Retailers to Report Same-Store Sales Thursday
Investors will look for signs of robust back-to-school sales when retailers report their August same-store sales results on Thursday.
Same-store sales in July were mixed for U.S. retailers, though teen retailers like Wet Seal Inc. and Buckle Inc. had a soft start to the back-to-school season.
Last August’s sales were affected by Hurricane Irene, which slammed the U.S. East Coast on one of the biggest back-to-school shopping weekends and forced store closures in one of the nation’s most populous regions.
Energy Markets Seeing Mild Impact from Tropical Storm Isaac
Tropical Storm Isaac is already disrupting oil and gas production in the U.S. Gulf of Mexico, but its impact on energy markets is likely to be mild compared with storms in previous years, traders and analysts say.
The storm is forecast to strengthen by the time it reaches the Gulf early Monday, and seems headed toward the Alabama coast, passing near the heart of energy production in the Gulf and threatening refineries in Louisiana and Mississippi. BP PLC said Friday it is pulling all personnel from its large Thunder Horse offshore platform, interrupting production there, and evacuating nonessential staff from a host of other nearby facilities. Royal Dutch Shell PLC, also a major Gulf producer, said it is preparing to evacuate nonessential staff from some of its operations in the area, although production so far remained unaffected.
Analysts expect other producers to also evacuate facilities and disrupt production, a move that just a few years ago could have triggered major spikes in energy prices, coming in the height of driving and air-conditioning season.
But thanks to an unprecedented boom in shale natural-gas production onshore, Gulf natural-gas production is just 6% of the total produced in the continental U.S., down from 17% when Hurricanes Katrina and Rita wrought havoc with energy infrastructure there in 2005.
MarketWatch’s Kate Gibson stopped by the Markets Hub this morning to preview the week ahead: