por admin » Dom Nov 04, 2012 10:31 am
Las elecciones atraen toda la atencion la proxima semana. Las elecciones osn importantes por que veremos que pasara con el fiscal cliff (abismo), las regulaciones del gobierno y las politicas del Fed, dice Barclays.
No importa quien gane, la falta de abilidad del Congreso para avanzar sus leyes va a crear mas volatilidad en el mercado, en lo que se refiere a los impuestos, Romney es mas favorable por que es considerado a favor de los negocios.
Respecto al Fed, Romney nominaria a un chairman mas cuidadoso con la politica monetaria, los republicanos no estan de acuerdo con la actual politica de QE para el resto de nuestras vidas. El ajuste monetaria favoreceria al dolar.
Next Week’s Tape: Election Day Rules the Week
By Kathleen Madigan
A U.S. presidential election diverts the financial markets’ attention away from almost all data. In the coming week, Tuesday’s election will have little data to compete against, and the stock, bond, currencies and commodities markets will all be riveted to and swayed by Tuesday’s election.
“The election is important because of what happens with the fiscal cliff, government regulations and Fed policy,” said Aroop Chatterjee, a foreign exchange strategist at Barclays BARC.LN +0.79%in New York.
On the fiscal cliff, no matter which presidential candidate wins, a Congressional deadlock may be something to consider and this could increase market volatility, Chatterjee said. On tax policy, Mitt Romney is considered more pro-business.
Another factor will be how the election affects the Federal Reserve’s policies. The central bank has been buying bonds, weakening the greenback by increasing the supply of dollars.
However, Romney has indicated he could nominate more hawkish members to the Fed’s board, who would be less inclined to support future easing.
“The [potential] tightening of Fed policy is positive for the dollar,” Chatterjee said.
As for the data next week, the main pre-election report will be the Institute for Supply Management’s survey of nonmanufacturers Monday. The purchasing managers’ index is projected to fall to 54.5 in October from 55.1 in September, according to the median forecast of economists surveyed by Dow Jones Newswires. A reading above 50 indicates expansion.
The earnings calendar is crowded again, but the names are quite as red letter as in the past two weeks. Retailers like Macy's M +0.22%, Nordstrom Kohl's KSS -0.80%, and J.C. Penney JCP -2.31%chime in, as well as Time Warner TWX -1.00%, Groupon, Kraft, WellPoint CVS CVS +0.15%, and NYSE.
On Thursday, the Commerce Department will report on the September U.S. trade deficit.
The median forecast expects the trade gap widened to $45.0 billion from $44.2 billion in August. Imports are being swayed by oil prices, and the global slowdown is hurting demand for U.S. exports.
A first look at November consumer sentiment will be reported Friday. Presumably, the impact of Sandy will influence the results.
Even so, economists think the preliminary November reading will rise to 83.0 from the end-October reading of 82.6. The solid report on October job growth may offset the dreary spirits caused by Sandy.
MarketWatch’s Sam Mamudi stopped by the Markets Hub to preview next week.
As always, here is your handy clip-and-save data calendar for the week of Nov. 5:
Monday
Economics:
ISM October non-manufacturing (services) PMI (10:00 a.m. ET): seen slipping to 54.5 from 55.1 in September.
Earnings:
Cumulus Media CMLS -0.81%Express Scripts ESRX -0.77%, Humana, Plains All American, Rockwell SBA Communications SBAC -0.03%Southern Co. SO -0.54%, Tesla Time Warner Cable TWC -0.58%, Zillow
Tuesday
Economics:
U.S. presidential and Congressional elections
September Job Openings & Labor Turnover survey (10:00)
Earnings:
Boise, Cablevision Calpine CPN -0.84%Church & Dwight CHD -0.33%Computer Sciences CSC -0.03%, CVS Caremark DirecTV DTV -1.78%, Discovery Communications Dish Network DISH -1.69%, Liberty Interactive Louisiana-Pacific LPX -2.15%Marathon Oil MRO -1.38%News Corp NWSA -1.53%NYSE Euronext NYX +0.68%Office Depot ODP 0.00%OfficeMax OMX -1.57%
Wednesday
Economics:
September consumer credit report (3:00 p.m.): consumer debt seen expanding by $11 billion, after expanding by $18.1 billion in August.
Earnings:
Activision Becton Dickinson BDX -0.80%, CBS Dynegy DYN -1.56%Kraft Foods KRFT -1.26%, Leap Wireless, Macy’s Qualcomm QCOM -0.72%Tenet Healthcare THC -1.46%, Time Warner Trulia TRLA -5.90%, WellPoint
Thursday
Economics:
Weekly jobless claims (8:30): claims seen rising to 365,000 from 363,000.
US September trade deficit (8:30): deficit seen at $45 billion, after $44.2 billion deficit in August.
Earnings:
Allscripts AMC Networks AMCX +0.74%Dean Foods DF -1.32%Duke Energy DUK -0.57%, Groupon, Kohl’s, Lion’s Gate, Manulife Monster Worldwide MWW -2.88%, Nordstrom, Wendy’s Walt Disney DIS +0.16%
Friday
Economics:
October import prices (8:30): seen flat, after rising 1.1% in September.
November Reuters/UMich Consumer Sentiment (prelim) (9:55): seen rising to 83.0 from the end-October reading of 82.6.
September wholesale inventories (10:00): seen rising 0.4%, after rising 0.5% in August.
Earnings:
Brookfield Real Estate, Constellation Energy EW Scripps SSP -1.67%, J.C. Penney
– Anusha Shrivastava contributed to this post.
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