La manufactura en China mejora, el PMI fue de 50.4 y es la primera expansion en 13 meses, la economia parece estar repuntando despues de 7 trimestres de desaceleracion.
China Manufacturing Data Signals Rebound Gathering Pace: Economy
By Bloomberg News - Nov 21, 2012 10:41 PM ET
Play China's HSBC PMI Shows First Lift in a Year
A Chinese manufacturing index signaled the first expansion in 13 months, adding to signs that economic growth is rebounding after a seven-quarter slowdown.
The preliminary reading was 50.4 for a purchasing managers’ index released today by HSBC Holdings Plc (HSBA) and Markit Economics. It compares with a final level of 49.5 for October. A reading above 50 indicates expansion.
Gains in manufacturing bolster prospects for a sustained pickup in economic growth that slowed last quarter to the weakest pace in more than three years. A rebound may smooth a once-a-decade leadership transition for the ruling Communist Party, set to install Li Keqiang as premier in March, and reduce the likelihood of additional monetary stimulus.
“The economic recovery continues to gain momentum,” Qu Hongbin, chief China economist at HSBC in Hong Kong, said in a statement. “However, it is still the early stage of recovery and global economic growth remains fragile.”
The MSCI Asia Pacific Index climbed 0.9 percent as of 12:27 p.m. in Tokyo., while the Shanghai Composite Index pared declines, falling 0.5 percent after earlier sliding as much as 0.8 percent. The Chinese gauge yesterday gained the most since Nov. 1, rebounding from an intraday drop below the 2,000 level, on speculation the government will accelerate measures to boost the equities market.
Higher Profit
China Gas Holdings Ltd. (384), which supplies more than 7 million residential users and 40,000 industrial and commercial customers, said yesterday that it expects to report a “significant increase” in profit in the six months through September. Its shares gained the most in two weeks.
A separate, government-backed index of purchasing managers’ views at manufacturers, which showed an expansion in October for the first time in three months, is due to be released Dec. 1. The final HSBC-Markit index for November is due Dec. 3.
Zhang Zhiwei, chief China economist at Nomura Holdings Inc., said that growth will pick up “strongly” this quarter to an 8.4 percent annual pace from 7.4 percent in the previous three months.
Some economic indicators in October pointed to a growth recovery, with exports rising at the fastest pace in five months and industrial output and retail sales exceeding forecasts. At the same time, new lending unexpectedly fell from a year earlier and money supply increased less than forecast.
Reserve Ratio
Economists have scrapped projections for any easing of monetary policy in the rest of 2012. Analysts surveyed by Bloomberg News Nov. 14-19 see China holding the reserve- requirement ratio for the biggest banks at 20 percent through the end of the year, based on the median estimate. That compares with the median forecast for a 0.5 percentage-point cut in last month’s survey.
China’s gross domestic product is poised to expand 7.7 percent this year, the weakest pace since 1999, based on the median estimate of analysts surveyed by Bloomberg News this month. Growth may pick up to 8.1 percent in 2013, according to the median of 46 forecasts.
Elsewhere in Asia, India’s government begins today trying to push through the nation’s biggest opening to foreign investment in a decade, as the winter parliamentary session commences. Prime Minister Manmohan Singh’s administration is reaching out to other political parties to secure backing for reforms, including plans to boost foreign investment in insurance and pension sectors. Opposition parties are threatening a no-confidence vote.
European Summit
European leaders willl begin a two-day summit in Brussels on the bloc’s next budget. U.K. Prime Minister David Cameron has threatened to veto a proposed spending increase that he says is excessive at a time when states are engaged in austerity policies.
Euro-zone services and manufacturing output probably contracted for a 10th month in November, adding to signs that a slump in the 17-nation currency union will extend into the fourth quarter.
Brazil’s unemployment rate probably fell to 5.3 percent in October from 5.4 percent in the previous month, according to the median estimate of economists surveyed by Bloomberg News. South Africa’s central bank is forecast to hold its benchmark interest at 5 percent.
Equity and bond markets are closed in the U.S. for the Thanksgiving holiday.
To contact the reporter on this story: Xin Zhou in Beijing at
xzhou68@bloomberg.net To contact the editor responsible for this story: Paul