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Eventos económicos

Manufactura en NY
Índice de los constructores

Entre los eventos más importantes de la semana tenemos los inicios de casas,; el Miércoles la decisión del Fed; el Jueves los indicadores líderes; el Viernes el PMI de servicios y de manufactura y la venta de casas existentes.
8:30 a.m. Empire manufacturing survey June 17.8
10 a.m. NAHB home builder survey June 66
TUESDAY, JUNE 18
8:30 am Housing starts May 1.24 mln
Beginning of FOMC meeting
WEDNESDAY, JUNE 19
2 p.m. FOMC decision 2.25%-2.5%
2:30 p.m. Powell press conference
THURSDAY, JUNE 20
8:30 am Weekly jobless claims 6/15 --
8:30 am Current account Q1 -$134.4 bln
8:30 a.m. Philly Fed index June 16.6
10 a.m. Leading indicators May 0.2%
FRIDAY, JUNE 21
9:45 a.m. Flash manufacturing PMI June 50.5
9:45 a.m. Flash services PMI June 50.9
10 a.m. Existing home sales

China eleva los aranceles antidumping a algunos tubos de acero de EEUU y la UE - Reuters

PEKÍN (Reuters) - China dijo el viernes que iba a aumentar los aranceles antidumping a ciertos tubos de aleación de acero sin soldadura utilizados en infraestructuras de energía e importados de Estados Unidos y la Unión Europea.

Foto de archivo del viceministro de Comercio de China, Wang Shouwen, durante una conferencia de prensa en Pekín. 9 de marzo de 2019. REUTERS/Jason Lee
Las tasas de impuestos contra la competencia desleal aplicables a los tubos de acero se establecen entre el 57,9% y el 147,8% sobre empresas de Estados Unidos y la UE, a partir del 14 de junio, según informó el Ministerio de Comercio de China en un comunicado el viernes.

Los nuevos aranceles son hasta 10 veces superiores a los tipos anteriores del 13%-14,1%, que se impusieron en 2014 y vencieron el 10 de mayo.

El aumento de los aranceles sobre el acero se produce en el marco de la escalada de la disputa comercial entre China y Estados Unidos, que afecta a mercancías por valor de miles de millones de dólares que se comercian entre las dos economías más grandes del mundo.

Los aranceles de la empresa estadounidense de extrusión de acero Wyman-Gordon Forgings se sitúan en el 101%, mientras que los de todas las demás empresas estadounidenses están en el 147,8%, dijo el Ministerio.

El arancel antidumping sobre las filiales Vallourec Deutschland GmbH y Vallourec Tubes France, filiales de Vallourec, es del 57,9%, mientras que las demás empresas de la UE se enfrentan a aranceles del 60,8%.

La decisión de ampliar y aumentar los gravámenes antidumping es consecuencia de una solicitud del sector chino de tubos de acero, dijo el Ministerio.

El año pasado, Inner Mongolia North Heavy Industries Group Corp Ltd, respaldada por el Gobierno, dijo en una queja presentada ante el Ministerio de Comercio: “A pesar de las (anteriores) medidas antidumping, los productores de la UE y de Estados Unidos... recortaron aún más los precios de exportación para ampliar y mantener sus cuotas de mercado en China”.

Para demostrar su argumento, Inner Mongolia North Heavy citó datos que muestran que los productos europeos y estadounidenses representaron más del 50 por ciento del mercado de tubos y tuberías especiales en China en el primer trimestre de 2018, con una caída del precio de importación de casi un 14% a 5.786 dólares por tonelada en comparación con los precios de 2014.

En 2017, el último año para el que se dispone de fecha completa, China importó 9.500 toneladas de los tubos utilizados por las empresas de infraestructuras energéticas, y casi el 95% de los productos procedían de Estados Unidos y la UE.

Información de Muyu Xu, Shivani Singh y Hallie Gu; editado en español por Tomás Cobos en la redacción de Madrid

EEUU no quiere una guerra con Irán, pero buscará garantizar seguridad marítima en Oriente Medio: Pompeo - Reuters

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Estados Unidos no quiere iniciar una guerra con Irán, pero tomará todas las medidas necesarias para garantizar la navegación segura de los buques petroleros por las importantes rutas marítimas de Oriente Medio, dijo el domingo el secretario de Estado Mike Pompeo.

La tensión entre Estados Unidos e Irán es alta tras las acusaciones del Gobierno de Donald Trump de que Teherán estuvo detrás de los ataques del jueves contra dos petroleros en el Golfo de Omán, una ruta vital para el transporte de crudo. Irán ha negado tener alguna responsabilidad en el hecho.

“No queremos la guerra. Hemos hecho todo lo posible para frenarla”, dijo Pompeo en una entrevista con Fox News Sunday. “Los iraníes deben entender muy claramente que continuaremos tomando medidas que disuadan a Irán de participar en este tipo de acciones”, agregó.

Pompeo, exdirector de la CIA, aseguró que existen nuevas pruebas de la responsabilidad de Irán, más allá de unas imágenes de video publicadas tras los ataques.

“La comunidad de inteligencia tiene mucha información, mucha evidencia. El mundo podrá ver gran parte de ella”, sostuvo el máximo diplomático estadounidense.

Arabia Saudita también culpó a Irán el sábado de los ataques y pidió a la comunidad internacional que tome medidas rápidas para asegurar los suministros de energía en el Golfo Pérsico.

Pompeo dijo que Estados Unidos tomará “todas las medidas necesarias, diplomáticas y de otro tipo” para garantizar el paso seguro en las rutas marítimas vitales, sin proporcionar detalles. También aseguró que Estados Unidos está analizando una posible respuesta internacional y reveló que conversó el sábado con varios funcionarios extranjeros por el tema.

Estados Unidos, que está envuelto también en un enfrentamiento con Irán por el programa nuclear del país asiático, ha culpado a Teherán por otros actos de agresión en los últimos meses, entre ellos unos ataques a petroleros que se produjeron en mayo y una ofensiva contra drones estadounidenses en Yemen.

Reporte de Richard Cowan y Sarah N. Lynch. Editado en español por Rodrigo Charme

Conservadores de España retoman Madrid, izquierdistas retienen Barcelona - Reuters

MADRID (Reuters) - Un conservador juró el sábado como alcalde de Madrid, recuperando el control de la capital española para el Partido Popular después de que formó una coalición que incluyó a la extremaderecha, mientras que la izquierda ganó un segundo mandato en Barcelona con el apoyo de los socialistas y otros.

Ada Colau posa durante la ceremonia de toma de juramento como alcaldesa de Barcelona, en el ayuntamiento de Barcelona, España. 15 de junio, 2019. REUTERS/Albert Gea
Las elecciones municipales de España en mayo llevaron a un paisaje político fragmentado, que requería de varios acuerdos para formar gobiernos de coalición y que llevó a que los candidatos más votados quedaran fuera del cargo en algunos lugares.

El candidato a alcalde de Madrid del PP, José Luis Martínez-Almeida, quedó segundo atrás de un candidato de izquierda, pero consiguió el control del gobierno de la ciudad con el apoyo del partido Vox de extremaderecha, así como del centrista Ciudadanos.

Algunos miembros de Ciudadanos han expresado su malestar por la decisión del partido de profundizar su alianza con Vox y el PP para conseguir una cuota de poder en Madrid y en la región de Murcia, al sureste del país.

En la vecina Francia, el gobierno del presidente Emmanuel Macron advirtió a Ciudadanos, su aliado de centroderecha español en el Parlamento Europeo, de posibles “consecuencias” si seguía adelante con las alianzas locales con Vox.

Bajo el sistema electoral municipal de España, los ayuntamientos deben elegir un alcalde del grupo que forme una mayoría si ningún candidato obtiene una victoria directa.

Los socialistas obtuvieron la mayoría de los votos en la elección de mayo, con un 29,3% de las preferencias, seguidos por el PP con un 22,2%.

En Barcelona, la alcaldesa izquierdista Ada Colau también resultó segunda en las elecciones, pero fue reelecta con el apoyo de los socialistas y una plataforma respaldada por el exprimer ministro francés Manuel Valls, en un acuerdo que buscó prevenir que un líder independentista catalán asumiera el cargo.

“No seré alcaldesa independentista ni antiindependentista”, dijo Colau después de jurar, agregando que se sintió algo incómoda por la forma en que fue reelecta. Ella tuvo diferencias con Valls durante la campaña en la segunda mayor ciudad de España.

Cientos de personas se manifestaron afuera del ayuntamiento de Barcelona, algunos a favor de Colau y otros por grupos favorables a la independencia. El concejal electo Joaquim Forn es uno de los líderes catalanes encarcelados enjuiciados por el Tribunal Supremo de España por su rol en la fallida campaña independentista de la región en 2017.

El recibió permiso de la corte para su traslado desde una prisión de Madrid para asistir al pleno de constitución del consistorio de Barcelona, para que regrese a Madrid inmediatamente después.

Reporte de Joan Faus; Editado en Español por Ricardo Figueroa

Copper June 16,21:39
Bid/Ask 2.6328 - 2.6335
Change +0.0013 +0.05%
Low/High 2.6245 - 2.6436
Charts

Nickel June 16,21:39
Bid/Ask 5.3970 - 5.4015
Change +0.0023 +0.04%
Low/High 5.3857 - 5.4219
Charts

Aluminum June 16,21:39
Bid/Ask 0.7849 - 0.7854
Change -0.0007 -0.09%
Low/High 0.7831 - 0.7910
Charts

Zinc June 16,21:39
Bid/Ask 1.1727 - 1.1731
Change +0.0027 +0.23%
Low/High 1.1691 - 1.1758
Charts

Lead June 16,21:36
Bid/Ask 0.8569 - 0.8574
Change +0.0034 +0.40%
Low/High 0.8535 - 0.8578
Charts

Uranium Jun 10, 2019
Ux U308 pri

2886.98 -4.66 -0.16
China: Shanghai Composite 2880.42 -1.55 -0.05
Japan: Nikkei 225 21112.08 -4.81 -0.02
UK: FTSE 100 7345.78

Crude Oil Futures 52.66 0.15 0.29
Brent Crude Futures 62.24 0.23 0.37
Gold Futures 1343.90 -0.60 -0.04
Silver Futures 14.825 0.022 0.15
DJIA Futures 26198 70 0.27
S&P 500 Futures 2902

LAST CHG %CHG
Euro (EUR/USD) 1.1220 0.0009 0.08
Japanese Yen (USD/JPY) 108.65 0.10 0.09
U.K. Pound (GBP/USD) 1.2592 0.0003 0.02
Swiss Franc (USD/CHF) 0.9989 0.0002 0.02
Chinese Yuan (USD/CNY) 6.9236 -0.0018 -0.03
U.S. Dollar Index 97

U.S. 10 Year 2.113 0.033
Germany 10 Year -0.251 0.000
U.K. 10 Year 0.849 0.000
Japan 10 Year -0.120 0.004
Australia 10 Year 1.414 0.032
China 10 Year 3.275

Case for Cutting Rates Can Be Found in Close Calls of the 1990s

Fed officials at their meeting this week are set to weigh whether trade tensions and a recent hiring slowdown might warrant action

Nick TimiraosJune 16, 2019 4:00 p.m. ET

That’s how some analysts characterize the current case for cutting rates, and they cite 1995 as the parallel. Back then, the Fed lowered rates in time to prevent an economic slowdown from turning into a recession.

Fed officials are set to consider at their meeting Tuesday and Wednesday whether a worsening of trade tensions since their April 30-May 1 meeting and the recent slowdown in hiring and industrial activity might warrant similar insurance, if not this week, then later this summer.

Over the 12 months that ended in February 1995, the Fed doubled its policy rate in hopes of achieving a so-called “soft landing,” when growth ebbs just enough to contain price pressures while allowing the economy to keep expanding. The Fed lifted rates four times last year with the same aim.

By the summer of 1995, Fed officials worried the economy might be slowing too much. “We ought to be taking out some insurance against recession,” said Fed Vice Chairman Alan Blinder at the central bank’s July 1995 policy meeting, according to the transcript. The Fed cut rates at that meeting, and again in December 1995 and January 1996.

The July 1995 example stands out because the Fed lowered rates even though stock markets were rallying. Stocks have climbed in recent weeks on the hopes of easier Fed policy.

Inflation Equation
Annual change in core personal consumptionexpenditures price index
Source: Commerce Department
Note: Core prices exclude food and energy and are seasonallyadjusted

MONTHS BEFORE/AFTER FIRST RATE CUT
First rate cut
July 1995
Jan. 2001
Sept. 2007
Scenario with September 2019 rate cut
-18
-16
-14
-12
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0

While concerns around a sharper-than-anticipated slowdown were broadly shared at that 1995 meeting, “no one thought the probability of a recession was better than 50/50,” said then-Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan, according to the transcript. He justified the rate cut in part by pointing to inflation that “is being held down by events in the rest of the world,” something that could also be happening now.

The analogy isn’t perfect. Most Fed officials back then had concluded softer inflation pressures meant their benchmark federal-funds rate—then at 6%— was high enough to deliberately slow growth. Today, with the rate in a range between 2.25% and 2.5%, most officials don’t share that view.

Rate cuts in 1995 “started from a level in which the funds rate was clearly restrictive,” said Donald Kohn, a senior Fed economist in 1995, in a recent interview. “That’s an important difference between now and where we were in 1995.”

Economic weakness also was more evident in the data then than it is today, when the picture is more mixed.

The mid-1990s episode is proof that “the Fed never cuts for free,” said Roberto Perli, an analyst at research firm Cornerstone Macro. “You need a reason for it, and most of the time there is something really nasty happening.”

Equity Outlook
Change in S&P 500 index
Source: S&P Global

%
MONTHS BEFORE/AFTER FIRST RATE CUT
First rate cut
July 1995
Jan. 2001
Sept. 2007

To justify a rate cut in the current environment, Mr. Blinder said in a recent interview, officials should need to see either more evidence of a substantial growth slowdown or conclude that the so-called neutral interest rate—the level that neither spurs nor slows growth—is lower than they thought. That would imply rates could be curbing growth more than they anticipated.

Some observers think the recent hiring slowdown might offer such evidence. The Fed’s rate increases last year were aimed at slowing job growth to a more sustainable rate that would avoid hotter price pressures. But the tepid May gains raise the question of whether the pace will weaken further.

The Fed’s challenge is complicated today because officials face two very different scenarios. In the first, trade tensions with China and other countries ease, leaving less urgency to reduce rates. In the other, these frictions worsen and the economic outlook deteriorates, calling for lower rates.

While the Fed can try to cushion a modest weakening in demand, it isn’t all-powerful. It can’t undo “the real economic harm caused by trade protection and extreme uncertainty that is shaking globally integrated production chains,” said Krishna Guha, vice chairman of Evercore ISI.

If it looks like the worrisome scenario is unfolding, the Fed will have greater incentives to cut rates sooner rather than later because they are already very low, leaving less room to cut them to stimulate growth in a downturn.

Rate Decisions
Federal-funds rate
Source: Federal Reserve

%
MONTHS BEFORE/AFTER FIRST RATE CUT
First rate cut
July 1995
Jan. 2001
Sept. 2007
Scenario with September 2019 rate cut
-18
-16
-14
-12
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
1
2
3
4
5
6
7

“The cost of insurance goes up after an accident,” said Laura Rosner, senior economist at advisory firm MacroPolicy Perspectives.

The Fed took out insurance again in 1998 to prevent a potential market meltdown stemming from the Russian debt default. They reversed the cuts in 1999 after averting catastrophe.

The examples from the 1990s are both reassuring and distressing. They show the Fed can make a preemptive strike to sustain an economic expansion, but it hasn’t since repeated the trick.

Fed officials this week will have to balance the appeal of such insurance with the risk it scares investors into thinking the central bank sees something more ominous in the economy.

Share Your Thoughts

Why do you think the Fed should or shouldn’t cut interest rates now?Join the conversation below.

Israel Unveils New Settlement in Disputed Golan Heights Named ‘Trump Heights’

Controversial move is a gesture of thanks for U.S. president recognizing Israeli control over the territory

Dov Lieber
Updated June 16, 2019 6:30 p.m. ET

GOLAN HEIGHTS—Shrugging off opposition from the international community, Israel’s government on Sunday unveiled a new Jewish settlement in a secluded and breezy area of the disputed Golan Heights named after President Trump.

Called Trump Heights, or Ramat Trump in Hebrew, the planned settlement reflects Israel’s will to cement Mr. Trump’s recent support for Israeli control over the contested territory, which it captured from Syria in the 1967 Six Day War.

Mr. Trump in March broke with decades of international consensus by recognizing Israel’s sovereignty over the Golan Heights. The United Nations and most world powers rejected Mr. Trump’s decision and continue to consider the Golan Heights occupied Syrian land whose status should be resolved through negotiations.


The new settlement is slated to take over what is now Bruchim, an Israeli community in the town of Kela Alon built decades ago that has just a handful of homes and residents. For now, a Trump Heights sign is all that has been added to the site.

Mr. Trump “has done things that should have been done by virtue of truth and justice,” Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said at the sign-unveiling ceremony for the new settlement. “The Golan was and will always be ours. The Golan is Israeli,” Mr. Netanyahu added.

The U.S. ambassador to Israel, David Friedman, who also attended the ceremony, said the Golan Heights was essential to Israel’s security. “Few things are more important to the state of Israel than permanent sovereignty over the Golan Heights,” he said.

Later Sunday, Mr. Trump on Twitter thanked Mr. Netanyahu for naming the settlement after him and called it a “great honor.”

Mr. Trump’s proclamation recognizing Israeli control over the region emphasized the security threats Israel faces, notably from Iranian proxies active in Syria. Iranian-backed forces have been operating in Syria for much of that nation’s eight-year civil war, but the timing of Mr. Trump’s statement on the Golan provided a political boost to Mr. Netanyahu in a close election contest.

Mr. Netanyahu went on to win the election in April, but failed to form a government, sending Israel for the first time in its history into a fresh round of elections that are scheduled for mid-September.

Zvi Hauser, a lawmaker in the Blue and White opposition party, criticized Sunday’s ceremony, noting that Israel’s finance ministry hadn’t approved funding for it.

“Let’s hope President Trump doesn’t realize his name is being used for a public relations exercise,” Mr. Hauser said in a statement Friday.

While building settlements in the West Bank—where millions of Palestinians live and hope to found a state—remains a divisive issue within Israel, the vast majority of Israelis support Israel’s permanent control over the Golan Heights, polls show.

The Israeli-controlled portion of the Golan Heights is about 500 square miles and home to around 50,000 people, half of whom are Jewish and half Arabic-speaking Druze. Many of the Druze there see themselves as Syrian, and refuse to accept Israeli citizenship.

On Sunday, Mr. Netanyahu argued that Israel’s control of the area is legitimate because it conquered the territory in a defensive war against Syria in 1967. Some legal experts dispute the legality of this claim, saying no territory can be acquired by war, defensive or otherwise.

Before the war, Syria used the strategic plateau to shell Israeli communities below. In 1973, Syria attempted to take back the territory but was repelled by Israel.

Mr. Netanyahu has said the security rationale behind the U.S. recognition of Israeli sovereignty over the Golan Heights could be applied to the West Bank as well. Days before the election in April, Mr. Netanyahu promised his government would annex parts of the West Bank.

Since Israel annexed the Golan Heights in 1981, successive Israeli leaders, including Mr. Netanyahu, held talks with Syria to return the territory in exchange for peace. Such talks were suspended after the start of the Syrian civil war in 2011, and now Israel says it never will relinquish control of the land.

That stance has drawn strong support among local Israelis. “We conquered this place,” said Michal Bar, 21, a restaurant employee who lives in the Golan Heights. “As long as I’m in Israel I won’t leave it.”

LAST CHG %CHG
Crude Oil Futures 51.96 -0.55 -1.05
Brent Crude Futures 61.34 -0.67 -1.08
Gold Futures 1339.10 -5.40 -0.40
Silver Futures 14.790 -0.013 -0.09
DJIA Futures 26151 23 0.09
S&P 500 Futures

LAST CHG %CHG
Euro (EUR/USD) 1.1229 0.0019 0.17
Japanese Yen (USD/JPY) 108.67 0.12 0.11
U.K. Pound (GBP/USD) 1.2589 0.0000 0.00
Swiss Franc (USD/CHF) 0.9985 -0.0002 -0.02
Chinese Yuan (USD/CNY) 6.9251 -0.0003 0.00
U.S. Dollar Index 97

YIELD(%) YIELD CHG
U.S. 10 Year 2.110 0.030
Germany 10 Year -0.234 0.017
U.K. 10 Year 0.857 0.008
Japan 10 Year -0.127 -0.003
Australia 10 Year 1.396 0.014
China 10 Year 3.265 -0.015

Copper June 17,07:39
Bid/Ask 2.6188 - 2.6190
Change -0.0127 -0.48%
Low/High 2.6161 - 2.6436
Charts

Nickel June 17,07:38
Bid/Ask 5.3781 - 5.3804
Change -0.0166 -0.31%
Low/High 5.3516 - 5.4378
Charts

Aluminum June 17,07:38
Bid/Ask 0.7828 - 0.7831
Change -0.0028 -0.36%
Low/High 0.7802 - 0.7910
Charts

Zinc June 17,07:38
Bid/Ask 1.1598 - 1.1603
Change -0.0101 -0.87%
Low/High 1.1594 - 1.1797
Charts

Lead June 17,07:38
Bid/Ask 0.8517 - 0.8524
Change -0.0018 -0.21%
Low/High 0.8510 - 0.8612
Charts

Uranium Jun 10, 2019
Ux U308 price: 24.75
Change from
previous week +0.75