Miércoles 12/05/21 Inflación

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Miércoles

Eventos económicos
Inflación


Consumer price index April 0.2% 0.6%
8:30 am Core CPI April 0.3% 0.3%
9 am Fed Vice Chair Richard Clarida speaks at NABE
1 pm Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic speaks at Council on Foreign Relations
1:30 pm Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker speaks
2 pm Federal budget April

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LAST CHG %CHG
Crude Oil Futures 65.30 0.02 0.03
Brent Crude Futures 68.55 0.00 0.00
Gold Futures 1828.00 -8.10 -0.44
Silver Futures 27.450 -0.217 -0.78
DJIA Futures 34077 -106 -0.31
S&P 500 Futures 4135.50 -10.70

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-12.43 -0.09
Japan: Nikkei 225 28147.51 -461.08 -1.61
UK: FTSE 100 6995.95 47.96 0.69
Crude Oil Futures 66.04 0.76 1.16
Gold Futures 1834.90 -1.20 -0.07
Yen 108.68 0.06 0.06
Euro 1.2128 -0.0023

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CHG %CHG
Crude Oil Futures 66.04 0.76 1.16
Brent Crude Futures 69.28 0.73 1.06
Gold Futures 1834.00 -2.10 -0.11
Silver Futures 27.485 -0.182 -0.66
DJIA Futures 34058 -125 -0.37
S&P 500 Futures 4129.50 -16.70

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Copper May 12,06:59
Bid/Ask 4.8232 - 4.8250
Change -0.0136 -0.28%
Low/High 4.7518 - 4.8645
Charts

Nickel May 12,06:59
Bid/Ask 8.1913 - 8.1958
Change +0.0088 +0.11%
Low/High 8.1027 - 8.2883
Charts

Aluminum May 12,06:59
Bid/Ask 1.1526 - 1.1530
Change -0.0014 -0.12%
Low/High 1.1510 - 1.1637
Charts

Zinc May 12,06:59
Bid/Ask 1.3692 - 1.3697
Change -0.0019 -0.14%
Low/High 1.3644 - 1.3780
Charts

Lead May 12,06:59
Bid/Ask 1.0053 - 1.0060
Change +0.0020 +0.20%
Low/High 1.0006 - 1.0117
Charts

Uranium May 03, 2021
Ux U308 price: 28.85
Change from
previous wee

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Stock Futures Point to Indexes Extending Declines
Dow on track to slip further after tumbling in its worst one-day performance since late February

By Updated May 12, 2021 6:20 am ET
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U.S. stock futures slipped Wednesday, pointing to the Dow extending its decline a day after its biggest drop since February, as investors awaited fresh inflation data that could test their appetite for shares and bonds.

Futures for the S&P 500 edged down 0.2%, a day after the broad stocks gauge posted its biggest two-decline since early March. Contracts for technology-heavy Nasdaq-100 fell 0.4%. Contracts on the Dow Jones Industrial Average, which suffered its biggest drop since late February, ticked 0.2% lower.

Signs of mounting inflation have weighed on stocks this week. Rising commodity markets, supply-chain blockages and hiring difficulties have prompted some investors to expect a prolonged upswing in consumer prices.

That could lead the Federal Reserve to raise its target for short-term interest rates sooner than it has signaled, potentially weighing on stocks and other assets that have benefited from over a year of near-zero borrowing costs. For their part, several Fed officials have said the economy still needs support from low rates.

Concerns that a burst of inflation may prove more intense and longer-lasting than investors had expected have sharpened focus on inflation data for April, due to be published at 8:30 a.m. ET. Economists surveyed by The Wall Street Journal expect the consumer-price index to have jumped 3.6% last month from a year earlier, up from 2.6% in March. That would be the highest 12-month level since the summer of 2011.

“Markets are highly sensitive to headline and core levels of inflation at this moment in time,” said Edward Park, chief investment officer at U.K. investment firm Brooks Macdonald. “There is the concern that the Federal Reserve will lose control if there are signs that the inflation backdrop does become more prolonged.”

Many bond and stock investors think the Fed will maintain its loose monetary policy, “but at the same time, that conviction gets tested by things like [last week’s] jobs report,” Mr. Park added. “Markets feel confused and conflicted.”

The yield on 10-year U.S. Treasury notes ticked down to 1.614%, from 1.623% Tuesday. Yields, which fall when bond prices rise, had climbed for three consecutive trading sessions but remain below their March high of 1.749%.

Other factors have also knocked down stocks in recent days, including signs that the U.S. economy—while still expanding at a fast clip—has passed its peak rate of growth, said Anna Stupnytska, global economist at Fidelity International. The market was also vulnerable after a steep run-up in prices at the start of the year.


The New York Stock Exchange on Tuesday.
Photo: Spencer Platt/Getty Images
“The main worry is that…because of inflation moving higher, central banks will start tightening,” Ms. Stupnytska said. She thinks U.S. inflation will subside next year and that the Fed won’t hike rates until well into 2023. Still, multiasset funds at Fidelity International have bought Treasury inflation-protected securities, gold and industrial metals as a hedge against inflation.

In commodity markets, Brent-crude futures, the benchmark in energy markets, rose 0.6% to $68.94 a barrel. The glut of crude and oil products that built up near the start of the pandemic has mostly cleared in members of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, the International Energy Agency said in a monthly report.

Iron-ore futures hit fresh highs in New York, jumping 5% to $226.01 a metric ton. Prices for the steel ingredient have shot up due to strong demand from China.

Overseas markets were mixed. Gains for telecom and utility stocks helped to push the Stoxx Europe 600 up 0.4% after the index on Tuesday posted its biggest fall since December.

Shares of Commerzbank jumped 6.4% after the German lender boosted its revenue outlook for the year and reported an unexpected profit for the first quarter. ABN Amro Bank dropped 8.9% after the Dutch bank posted a loss for the first quarter, in part due to a settlement with prosecutors over a probe into money-laundering.

In Asian markets, Taiwan’s Taiex tumbled 4.1% after the government tightened coronavirus restrictions. Japan’s Nikkei 225 fell 1.6% by the close and China’s Shanghai Composite rose 0.6%.

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https://www.wsj.com/articles/amazon-fac ... 22?mod=mhp

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Transitory or Not, Signs of Inflation Are Roiling Asset Markets
Liz McCormickMay 11, 2021, 7:00 PM EDT
Over and over again, Federal Reserve officials have advised that any pickup in inflation this year was bound to be transitory. Traders in financial markets, however, aren’t so sure.

Investors have become fixated on widespread signs of price pressures as commodities like copper and lumber surge to records, and the bond market’s expectation for inflation over the next decade climbs to an eight-year high. The focus is triggering swings in the stock market, sending the Cboe Volatility Index to the highest since March on Tuesday.

The most-recent round of U.S. corporate earnings calls showed the word inflation was back in vogue, with its usage rising 800% from a year ago, according to Bank of America Corp. Even last week’s payrolls report, which showed the U.S. added only about a quarter of the jobs economists expected in April, is being viewed as a sign that companies will have to boost wages to entice more unemployed workers into the labor force.

“Inflation risk is what we want to watch here,” Savita Subramanian, Bank of America’s head of U.S. equity and quantitative strategy, said on Bloomberg Television on Friday. “I don’t know if it’s going to be transitory.”

Rising Commodity Prices Pushing Up Inflation
U.S. inflation data for April will be reported on Wednesday, with economists forecasting the Consumer Price Index rose to 3.6% on a year-over-year basis due to base effects from lower prices last year during the start of Covid-19 lockdowns.

Policy makers are standing their ground. Even known Fed hawks have chimed in over recent weeks to say that inflation is unlikely to get out of control despite unprecedented government spending in response to the coronavirus pandemic. Both Fed Chairman Jerome Powell and a top Biden administration economic adviser have said that the inflation now apparent in certain pockets of the economy is “transitory.”

That description raises an important question: Just how long does “transitory” mean? The answer is probably unknowable at the moment, but past recessions provide some clues.

Commodities After Recession

If the latest rise in prices is largely commodity-driven, then it’s a matter of how long those input prices keep rising. Using the 2009 economic rebound as a road map, demand for raw materials -- and ergo their prices -- soared for two years and pushed up global inflation until commodity markets topped out.

Copper, lumber tops came two years into post-GFC recovery
Those price increases were largely driven by a massive Chinese infrastructure package. This time, the U.S. may fill the role that China played more than a decade ago as the Biden administration proposes billions of dollars in spending. By this logic, “transitory” could mean two years.

Computer-Chip Shortages

However, raw materials like lumber and copper aren’t the only factors that potentially will push up inflation. Computer chips used in everything from cell phones to cars and refrigerators are also playing a major role.

Honda Motor Co., BMW AG and other automakers have been forced to halt production due to chip shortages. Given how crucial they are, it’s no surprise that the 30-member Philadelphia Semiconductor Index has a positive correlation with 10-year breakevens, a bond-market gauge of inflation expectations that’s based on the difference in yields between nominal Treasuries and inflation-protected securities. The two indexes have been trading in tandem over the past year.

Semiconductor stocks, breakevens have historically positive correlation
It doesn’t stop there.

Used Cars

Pent-up demand among those who can’t afford big-ticket items can be seen in the surge in prices of used cars in the U.S., says Sebastien Galy, a senior macro strategist at Nordea Investment Funds SA in Luxembourg.

The Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index, which measures prices at wholesale auctions, shows they’re now 20% higher since the end of last year.

Demand for used cars has sent wholesale auction prices upward
“It shows that if you can’t afford a lot, then replacing your car may be the way to splurge,” Galy said.

Breakevens

The bond market has sniffed out all the pricing pressure, and the inflation expectations it reflects are influential in setting investor assumptions. Ten-year breakeven rates, a proxy for the inflation expected over the next decade, are near their highest since March 2013 at about 2.54%. Five-year breakevens reached 2.78% this week, the highest since 2006.

Expectations Matter, Even If Inflation Proves Transitory

Treasury-market gauges of future inflation surge
To be sure, not all market participants agree with the inflation signals coming from the bond market. Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and Pacific Investment Management Co. estimate that bond traders pricing in annual inflation approaching 3% over the next handful of years are overstating the pressures bubbling up.

Read More: Goldman, Pimco Detect Irrational Inflation Mania in Bonds

Wage Pressures

Meanwhile, some investors, strategists and politicians have indicated that the real message of the well-below-forecast rate of job creation last month is that costs to entice more unemployed people back to work will rise. That’s in part due to added government unemployment benefits that make their former wages less appealing. Any pressure to increase wages could feed back into the prices of goods and services, further increasing the rate of inflation.

U.S. worker pay in private industry accelerating as economy reopens more broadly
“It’s not going to be that easy to pull 8 million people off their sofas and back to work without the price of doing that having to be higher than it was before,” said Mark Holman, chief executive officer at TwentyFour Asset Management. “This is inflation risk,” said Holman who is avoiding duration risk as a result and focused on corporate debt given the growth outlook is good and default risk is low.

— With assistance by Reade Pickert, Vince Golle, Nikos Chrysoloras, John Authers, and Michael McKee

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Inflación 4.2% vs 3.6% esperado. Anual.

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Mes a mes 0.8% vs 0.2% (inflacion)

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Stock futures extend losses after higher-than-expected inflation data
PUBLISHED TUE, MAY 11 20216:04 PM EDTUPDATED 2 MIN AGO
Yun Li
@YUNLI626
Maggie Fitzgerald
@MKMFITZGERALD
In this article
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Wall Street set for lower open after Tuesday’s losses
U.S. stock futures declined in early trading Wednesday following the Dow’s worst day since February as investors dumped tech shares again.

Dow futures fell more than 111 points while S&P 500 futures traded 0.4% lower and Nasdaq 100 futures lost 0.6%.


Tech shares, which have been under pressure this week and this month, were falling in the premarket again Wednesday. Shares of Alphabet, Microsoft, Netflix, Facebook and Apple all traded in the red, while shares of chipmakers Nvidia and AMD were also lower in the premarket.

Shares tied to the reopening also fell in the premarket. Carnival Corp, Boeing and United Airlines were lower in premarket trading.

The technology sector pulled off a big intraday reversal in the previous session where the Nasdaq Composite erased a loss north of 2% and ended the day flat. The blue-chip Dow, however, lost more than 450 points to suffer its worst day since February. The S&P 500 slipped 0.9%, but avoided its second straight 1% loss.

The Technology Select Sector SPDR is off by more than 1% this week and 3% this month, as investors reassess the group’s high valuations in the face of rising inflation.

Key inflation data will be released at 8:30 a.m. ET on Wednesday. April’s consumer price index is expected to grow 0.2% from the previous month, representing a 3.6% jump since last year, according to Dow Jones estimates. This jump in the headline consumer price index would be the largest since Sept. 2011.


The consumer price index excluding food and energy is expected to rise 0.3% in April and 2.3% over the past 12-months. The consumer price index rose 0.6% in March from the previous month and 2.6% from a year ago, according to the Department of Labor.

During Tuesday’s session, the CBOE Volatility Index, a measure of fear in the markets derived by option prices on the S&P 500, jumped as high as 23.73, levels not seen in two months. The VIX was higher in early trading Wednesday.

“There seems to be modest concern over inflation as of late and that has been cited as the primary catalyst for recent weakness in global equities,” said Brian Price, head of investment management for Commonwealth Financial Network

Investors have grown worried about the threat of inflation; however, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell has said any uptick in inflation should be transitory.

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https://encuestas.com.pe/encuesta-2da-v ... mayo-2021/

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https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm

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LAST CHG %CHG
DJIA 34148.32 -120.84 -0.35
S&P 500 4133.75 -18.35 -0.44
Nasdaq Composite 13280.05 -109.38 -0.82
Japan: Nikkei 225 28147.51 -461.08 -1.61
UK: FTSE 100 7000.86 52.87 0.76
Crude Oil Futures 66.06 0.78 1.19
Gold Futures 1833.40 -2.70 -0.15
Yen 109.21 0.58 0.54
Euro 1.2106