por admin » Jue Jul 08, 2010 10:28 pm
El Peru sube los intereses al 2% para controlar la inflacion.
Peru Raises Benchmark Rate to 2% as Rebound Raises Threat of Inflation
By John Quigley - Jul 8, 2010
Peru’s central bank raised its benchmark lending rate for a third consecutive month today to prevent the faster-than-forecast economic recovery from stoking inflationary pressures.
The seven-member board, led by bank President Julio Velarde, increased its reference rate by a quarter point to 2 percent, matching the forecasts of all 17 economists surveyed by Bloomberg.
Policy makers raised the benchmark rate from a record-low level earlier this year and have increased banks’ reserve requirements as the economy returns to pre-crisis growth rates. After the slowest expansion since 2001 last year, higher company spending and rising inflows have helped push South America’s sixth-biggest economy to its fastest growth since 2008.
“The central bank is moving policy toward a neutral position as a preventive measure,” said Hugo Perea, chief economist at BBVA Banco Continental, in an interview from Lima. “The economy will grow more in line with potential in the third quarter so fiscal and monetary stimulus can be withdrawn.”
Annual inflation accelerated for the second month in June, quickening to 1.64 percent, the fastest pace since August 2009, on higher food costs. Prices rose 0.25 percent from May.
“The increase in the reference rate is of a preventive nature,” policy makers said in a statement accompanying their decision. “Public and private spending have registered significant growth so far this year, which is reflected in production indicators showing a rapid economic recovery.”
‘Sweet Spot’
Peru was the second Latin American country after Brazil to raise borrowing costs in 2010 as a recovery in private investment spurs domestic demand. Chile increased its lending rate by 0.5 point in June from a record low as economic growth accelerates at the fastest pace in five years.
Peru’s $129 billion economy is in a “sweet spot” as it rebounds amid tame inflation, Velarde said June 18.
The bank in June raised its 2010 growth forecast to 6.6 percent, up from 5.5 percent. Annual inflation may accelerate to 2 percent to 2.5 percent by year-end, the lowest rate among Latin America’s major economies, according to the bank.
Peru’s economy expanded 9.3 percent in April, exceeding the 8.8 percent median forecast of nine economists surveyed by Bloomberg. Economic indicators for May suggest growth held near 9 percent as a result of the low comparative base, Perea said.
Economic Indicators
Domestic cement consumption, the principal indicator of construction output, jumped 19 percent in May, the national statistics office said. Electricity output rose 7.8 percent and agriculture expanded 3.2 percent. Mortgage loans climbed 16 percent.
“Peru has seen impressive growth in domestic tourism, which helped compensate for the decline in foreign tourists earlier this year,” Juan Stoessel, managing director of Casa Andina, the country’s largest hotel chain, said in an interview in Lima. “This is clearly because the economy is seeing major growth.”
Surging output has led to a rise in foreign demand for Peru’s sol and government bonds. The central bank resumed dollar purchases in the foreign exchange market last month after a two- month pause as the sol rose to a 22-month high.
The currency has strengthened 2.3 percent this year, the fifth-best performance among 26 emerging-market currencies tracked by Bloomberg. The central bank bought $3.2 billion in the first half of this year, which helped lift net foreign currency reserves to $35.3 billion, a two-year high.
Winding Down Stimulus
The yield on Peru’s benchmark 8.6 percent sol-denominated bond due August 2017 has fallen 40 basis points in the last month, or 0.4 percentage point, to 5.65 percent, according to Citigroup Inc.’s local unit.
To curb volatility in the local currency, the central bank increased reserve requirements this month for foreign currency accounts and borrowings abroad maturing in less than two years.
Banks must also hold reserves of at least 7 percent of their lending portfolios in their own vaults, up from 6 percent. The central bank last raised reserve requirements in July 2008.
Adjusting the reserve mandate has a greater impact than the reference rate on the riskiest forms of credit, such as consumer loans, according to the central bank.
Still, company and household loans climbed 15 percent in the first half of June from a year earlier, the central bank said.
The reserve adjustment is equivalent to an increase of half a percentage point in the reference rate, Scotiabank Peru analyst Mario Guerrero wrote in a July 5 report.
The central bank will withdraw monetary stimulus at a pace determined by economic data “in the coming months,” Velarde said June 18.