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Eventos económicos

PMI de manufactura
ISM de servicios

S&P U.S. manufacturing PMI (final) Oct. 49.9 49.9
10 am ISM manufacturing index Oct. 50.0% 50.9%
10 am Jobs openings Sept. 9.8 million 10.1 million
10 am Quits Sept. -- 4.2 million
10 am Construction spending Sept. -0.6% -0.7%
Varies Motor vehicle sales (SAAR) Oct.

LAST CHG %CHG
Crude Oil Futures 87.04 0.51 0.59
Brent Crude Futures 93.49 0.68 0.73
Gold Futures 1640.40 -0.30 -0.02
Silver Futures 19.345 0.226 1.18
DJIA Futures 32881 106 0.32
S&P 500 Futures 3897.00 14.00 0.3

-114.31 -1.03
Japan: Nikkei 225 27678.92 91.46 0.33
UK: FTSE 100 7192.68 98.15 1.38
Crude Oil Futures 88.34 1.81 2.09
Gold Futures 1658.60 17.90 1.09
Yen 147.04 -1.70 -1.14
Euro 0.9947

-29.08 -0.75
China: Shanghai Composite 2969.20 75.72 2.62
Japan: Nikkei 225 27678.92 91.46 0.33
UK: FTSE 100 7195.19 10

LAST CHG %CHG
Crude Oil Futures 88.32 1.79 2.07
Brent Crude Futures 94.65 1.84 1.98
Gold Futures 1659.00 18.30 1.12
Silver Futures 19.970 0.851 4.45
DJIA Futures 32992 217 0.66
S&P 500 Futures 3923.00 40.00

CHG %CHG
Euro (EUR/USD) 0.9940 0.0058 0.59
Japanese Yen (USD/JPY) 147.07 -1.68 -1.13
U.K. Pound (GBP/USD) 1.1554 0.0090 0.79
Swiss Franc (USD/CHF) 0.9920 -0.0098 -0.98
Chinese Yuan (USD/CNY) 7.2586 -0.0443 -0.61
U.S. Dollar Index 110.79

COUNTRY YIELD(%) YIELD CHG
U.S. 10 Year 3.931 -0.123
Germany 10 Year 2.031 -0.112
U.K. 10 Year 3.450 -0.059
Japan 10 Year 0.252 0.007
Australia 10 Year 3.774 0.009
China 10 Year 2.684

Bonds Rally With Powell’s Favored Curve Poised for Inversion
Fed’s preferred yield-curve measure close to recession signal Policy rates entering restrictive levels, OCBC’s Cheung says

Garfield Clinton Reynolds
October 31, 2022, 9:58 PM EDT
Jerome Powell
Jerome Powell
Photographer: Sarah Silbiger/Bloomberg
Bonds rallied ahead of what promises to be the Federal Reserve’s fifth-straight outsized rate hike later this week amid fresh warnings that a recession is inevitable as the central bank continues to tighten policy.

The yield on 10-year Treasuries fell as much as 11 basis points to 3.94%, compared to a peak of 4.34% last month, the highest since 2007. Traders are looking ahead to ISM manufacturing data for further clues on the state of the US economy before the Fed sets policy on Wednesday, where another three-quarter point hike looks like a near certainty. Bund yields fell 10 basis points to 2.05%.

The rush for bonds comes as Chair Jerome Powell’s favored portion of the yield curve -- the difference between where three-month rates are now versus where they are expected to be in 18 months’ time -- is on the cusp of inverting, with the spread between the two tumbling to a mere 0.2 percentage points Tuesday from 2.7 percentage points in April.

An inverted yield curve is a key warning sign for many investors that a recession is coming as the market begins to price in an end to tighter policy and braces for lower rates in the future to soften the blow of a looming slowdown. Many closely-watched spreads in the Treasury market have already flipped below zero.

Jerome Powell's preferred yield curve is close to inverting
“Policy rates are entering restrictive levels while there have been some soft patches of economic data of late,” said Frances Cheung, a Singapore-based rates strategist at Oversea-Chinese Banking Corp. “At some point, the Fed needs to move to smaller rate hikes, and this may happen at the December FOMC meeting.”

In March, Powell downplayed the significance of two-year yields rising above 10-year rates -- an often-cited harbinger of recession. He argued traders were looking at the wrong metric and that the shorter-end measure gives a clearer read because “if it’s inverted, that means the Fed’s going to cut, which means the economy is weak.”

Global markets have been roiled this year by an increasingly-hawkish Fed arguing that it needs to quash sky-high inflation even at the risk of a so-called hard landing for the economy. Its conundrum looks to be intensifying as robust inflation and labor-market data contrast with signs of weakness in other parts of the US economy.

That debate is also being reflected by Fed pricing. Money markets have fully priced a 75 basis point increase this week, according to contracts tied to central bank dates. Still, bets on yet another jumbo hike in December are wavering and are about 10 basis points lower than they were in mid-October.

Another widely-followed yield curve -- the gap between three-month and 10-year Treasuries -- inverted last week for the first time since March 2020.

Copper November 01,08:39
Bid/Ask 3.4732 - 3.4781
Change +0.0643 +1.89%
Low/High 3.4035 - 3.4859
Charts

Nickel November 01,08:35
Bid/Ask 10.1682 - 10.1818
Change +0.2474 +2.49%
Low/High 9.9095 - 10.2400
Charts

Aluminum November 01,08:39
Bid/Ask 1.1240 - 1.1247
Change +0.0197 +1.79%
Low/High 1.0870 - 1.1256
Charts

Zinc November 01,08:39
Bid/Ask 1.2754 - 1.2765
Change +0.0300 +2.41%
Low/High 1.2379 - 1.2797
Charts

Lead November 01,08:39
Bid/Ask 0.8896 - 0.8903
Change +0.0166 +1.91%
Low/High 0.8691 - 0.8941
Charts

Uranium Oct 24, 2022
Ux U308 price: 52.60
Change from

LAST CHG %CHG
DJIA 32845.06 112.11 0.34
S&P 500 3892.04 20.06 0.52
Nasdaq Composite 11069.68 81.53 0.74
Japan: Nikkei 225 27678.92 91.46 0.33
UK: FTSE 100 7206.32 111.79 1.58
Crude Oil Futures 88.40 1.87 2.16
Gold Futures 1655.00 14.30 0.87
Yen 147.37 -1.37 -0.92
Euro 0.9938

LAST CHG %CHG
DJIA 32765.90 32.95 0.10
S&P 500 3881.52 9.54 0.25
Nasdaq Composite 11028.90 40.75 0.37
Japan: Nikkei 225 27678.92 91.46 0.33
UK: FTSE 100 7206.05 111.52 1.57
Crude Oil Futures 88.52 1.99 2.30
Gold Futures 1653.50 12.80 0.78
Yen 147.71

LAST CHG %CHG
DJIA 32752.36 19.41 0.06
S&P 500 3882.04 10.06 0.26
Nasdaq Composite 11027.33 39.18 0.36
Japan: Nikkei 225 27678.92 91.46 0.33
UK: FTSE 100 7208.69 114.16 1.61
Crude Oil Futures 88.55 2.02 2.33
Gold Futures 1653.50 12.80 0.78
Yen 147.71 -1.03 -0.69
Euro 0.9926

lb

Copper November 01,09:59
Bid/Ask 3.4958 - 3.4963
Change +0.0869 +2.55%
Low/High 3.4035 - 3.5113
Charts

Nickel November 01,09:59
Bid/Ask 10.3156 - 10.3315
Change +0.3948 +3.98%
Low/High 9.9095 - 10.3383
Charts

Aluminum November 01,09:59
Bid/Ask 1.1115 - 1.1122
Change +0.0073 +0.66%
Low/High 1.0870 - 1.1256
Charts

Zinc November 01,09:59
Bid/Ask 1.2781 - 1.2790
Change +0.0327 +2.63%
Low/High 1.2379 - 1.2797
Charts

Lead November 01,09:57
Bid/Ask 0.8931 - 0.8938
Change +0.0201 +2.30%
Low/High 0.8691 - 0.9020
Charts

Uranium Oct 24, 2022
Ux U308 price: 52.60
Change from
previous week +2.15