por admin » Mar Ago 17, 2010 10:36 pm
La inflacion amenaza al Peru debido a la escasez del trigo, se ve al CPI cerca al 3%
La inflacion podria llegar al 3%
Peru Inflation Threatened by Wheat Shortage as Velarde Sees CPI Nearing 3%
By Fabiola Moura and John Quigley - Aug 17, 2010 11:29 AM ET
Peru's annual inflation rate may rise to about 3 percent this year, the upper end of the central bank's target, as a supply shortage pushes up the price of wheat, central bank Governor Julio Velarde said.
Peru’s annual inflation rate may rise to about 3 percent this year, the upper end of the central bank’s target, as a supply shortage pushes up the price of wheat, central bank Governor Julio Velarde said.
“We are concerned about inflation going up, and we are concerned about the increase in soft commodities, particularly wheat,” Velarde, 58, said yesterday during an interview at Bloomberg headquarters in New York. “If these pressures coming from grains are confirmed, we will be closer” to 3 percent inflation, he said.
Peruvian inflation accelerated to an annual 1.8 percent rate in July, the fastest in almost a year, as consumer demand rose amid a quickening economic expansion in the Andean country. Food costs may rise, Velarde said, after wheat surged to a 23- month high on Aug. 6 following Russia’s announcement it would ban grain exports and cut its production estimate by as much as 38 percent because of a drought.
Peru will likely be the Latin American country most hurt by a “wheat supply shock as the country imports most of its wheat, exporting very little,” Bank of America Merrill Lynch analysts wrote in a report to clients dated Aug. 13. Peru inflation will end the year at about 2.7 percent, within the central bank’s target range of 1 percent to 3 percent, according to BofA.
Food Prices
Food prices can explain about 70 percent of inflation in the region, said BNP Paribas SA in a note dated Aug. 13. Policy makers in Peru and Chile are “the most likely to respond more decisively to an upward inflation shock” in food prices, the bank said.
Peru’s sol gained 0.1 percent to 2.7995 per U.S. dollar at 11:13 a.m. New York time, from 2.8025 yesterday.
Velarde said he expects inflation to be “pretty well- subdued” in August, giving the central bank more time to consider its next rate move. He said he hasn’t seen a deflationary effect in Peru from the slowdown in the global economic expansion.
Policy makers have increased the benchmark rate four times since May, to 2.5 percent, as the $127 billion economy posted a faster-than-expected rebound.
“If according to our expectations, inflation is rather low in August, that would give us more time to think about the speed and magnitude of removal of the stimulus,” said Velarde, who took over as Peru’s central bank governor in October 2006. “Monetary stimulus has to be removed and the pace and timing will depend on the data we receive.”
At a speech in New York today, Velarde said economic growth has been “spectacular” in Peru in the past several months and policy makers are concerned businesses “may be thinking this will continue eternally.”
GDP Forecast
The economy expanded 11.9 percent in June, the fastest pace in 21 months and more than a full percentage point above the median estimate of 10 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg. Manufacturing expanded 21.6 percent in June from a year earlier while fishing rose 9.5 percent and mining increased 7.9 percent after declines in May and April. Construction rose 22.7 percent.
Peru’s gross domestic product grew 0.9 percent last year, the slowest pace since a 0.2 percent expansion in 2001.
The central bank will likely increase its growth forecast in two weeks, Velarde said today. The 2010 GDP forecast is 6.6 percent.
As the economy recovers, the government has begun to limit spending on services and public projects in a bid to prevent overheating that may spur inflation.
Policy makers also increased banks’ deposit requirements for local and foreign currency for a third straight month on Aug. 8, saying they were seeking to slow the sol’s appreciation while also curbing inflation.
Capital Inflows
Peru’s central bank doesn’t have a target level for the sol and is instead seeking to smooth out exchange-rate swings, Velarde said.
“We are not so afraid of appreciation -- we are afraid of the rebound,” Velarde said. Policy makers want to discourage short-term capital flows from entering the country to avoid excessive swings in the currency, he said.
Peru’s sol has strengthened 3.2 percent this year, the eighth best performance among 26 emerging market currencies tracked by Bloomberg.
The yield on Peru’s benchmark 8.6 percent sol-denominated bond due August 2017 declined one basis point, or 0.01 percentage point, to 5.14 percent, according to Citigroup Inc.’s local unit.
To contact the reporters on this story: Fabiola