Viernes 27/08/10 Las palabras de Bernanke

[admin]

Eventos economicos

Viernes

PBI (GDP) Se dira que el GDP no subio 2.4% sino 1.3% o 1.4% en el segundo trimestre.
Ganancias corporativas
Sentimiento del consumidor

Bernanke habla maniana

GDP
8:30 AM ET


Corporate Profits
8:30 AM ET


Consumer Sentiment
9:55 AM ET

[admin]

El ID para la clase es 427-511-241

[admin]

Metales a la baja

Copper August 26,21:55
Bid/Ask 3.2907 - 3.2952
Change -0.0136 -0.41%
Low/High 3.2861 - 3.3156
Charts

Nickel August 26,21:40
Bid/Ask 9.2404 - 9.2858
Change -0.0386 -0.42%
Low/High 9.2382 - 9.3425
Charts

Aluminum August 26,21:11
Bid/Ask 0.8955 - 0.8977
Change +0.0018 +0.20%
Low/High 0.8937 - 0.9000
Charts

Zinc August 26,21:51
Bid/Ask 0.9127 - 0.9172
Change -0.0023 -0.25%
Low/High 0.9104 - 0.9240
Charts

Lead August 26,21:39
Bid/Ask 0.9005 - 0.9050
Change -0.0045 -0.50%
Low/High 0.9005 - 0.9118

[admin]

Realmente lo que maniana va a determinar la jornada va a ser lo que diga Bernanke por que en realidad lo del GDP (PBI) es un vistazo al pasado.

Bernanke tiene la palabra.

[admin]

El yen al alza a 84.34, el euro esta a la baja 1.2708

Los futures 12 puntos a la baja.

El Hang Seng -0.24%. Australia -0.23%

[admin]

Bernanke habla a las 10:00 a.m. y el mercado tiene la expectativa de que Bernanke aplique el quantitative easing numero 2, es decir que el Fed compre nuevamente los bonos de hipotecas y del Tesoro. De ser asi el mercado debe subir. Hay una esperanza.

[admin]

Los futures del Dow Jones 1 punto al alza.

Oil down 73.03, Au down 1,237.20

[admin]

Bernanke's Mountain to Climb

By PETER EAVIS
If Ben goes wacko in Jacko, could stocks spike like the Grand Teton?

Trumpeting any formal policy change would, of course, be a huge surprise. But as central bankers gather this weekend in Jackson Hole, Wyo., investors would nevertheless cheer any sign that Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke is considering another big bout of bond purchases to invigorate the U.S. economy.

In an unorthodox policy dubbed quantitative easing, the Fed bought $1.7 trillion of bonds during the financial crisis. QE didn't work as well as many had hoped—much of the freshly printed money ended up idling in the banking system—and it can distort markets and interrupt important economic adjustments. Regardless, if Mr. Bernanke intimates the Fed is ready to launch QE2, stocks should rally.

What stock investors are hankering for is an unequivocal sign from the Fed that it won't allow a double-dip recession. Quantitative easing is arguably the most powerful weapon in the Fed's arsenal. After a slew of downbeat economic data, the Fed has cover to openly consider using the big gun again.

Stocks ultimately are priced off earnings, so investors would need to believe that QE2 would be large enough and continue long enough to support a sustainable economic recovery. To achieve this, the Fed could say any purchases would be done on an open-ended basis, until the U.S. economy is in the clear, despite the obvious inflationary risks.

It is hardly rigorous to base investment decisions so heavily on guessing what the what the Fed will do next. But in today's distorted markets, it may be the only way to catch any new ascent in stocks.

Write to Peter Eavis at peter.eavis@wsj.com

[admin]

Bernanke, Trichet Economic Paths May Diverge at Jackson Hole
By Simon Kennedy and Scott Lanman - Aug 26, 2010 6:13 PM ET
Ben S. Bernanke, chairman of the U.S. Federal Reserve. Photographer: Joshua Roberts/Bloomberg


Play VideoAug. 27 (Bloomberg) -- Robert Eisenbeis, chief monetary economist with Cumberland Advisors Inc. and a former research director at the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, talks about Fed monetary policy and the outlook for the U.S. economy. The Ben S. Bernanke-led Fed, while saying U.S. growth would be slower than anticipated, announced on Aug. 10 it will buy Treasuries to set a $2.05 trillion floor on its balance sheet and keep interest rates from rising. Bernanke will have his first public chance to defend the decision and discuss his outlook when he speaks at the Fed’s annual symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming later today. Eisenbeis speaks with Susan Li on Bloomberg Television. (Source: Bloomberg)


Play VideoAug. 26 (Bloomberg) -- Allen Sinai, president of Decision Economics Inc., talks about the outlook for the U.S. economy and Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke's speech tomorrow entitled, "The Economic Outlook and the Federal Reserve's Policy Response." Sinai speaks with Michael McKee on Bloomberg Television's "Taking Stock" in advance of the Fed's annual symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming. (Source: Bloomberg)


Play VideoAug. 27 (Bloomberg) -- David Wyss, global chief economist at Standard & Poor's, talks about the outlook for China's economy. Wyss also discusses economies in the U.S. and Europe, and North Korean leader Kim Jong Il's reported visit to China. Wyss speaks in Hong Kong with Rishaad Salamat on Bloomberg Television. (Source: Bloomberg)
Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke and European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet, who united to fight the worst global recession in six decades, may be diverging over the outlook for their economies.

The Bernanke-led Fed, while saying U.S. growth would be slower than anticipated, announced on Aug. 10 it will buy Treasuries to set a $2.05 trillion floor on its balance sheet and keep interest rates from rising. Trichet said Aug. 5 that the euro-area economy was surpassing forecasts, which may pave the way for the ECB to look at phasing out its emergency lending measures.

Any transatlantic divide may be on display when the two central bankers address the Fed’s annual symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming. Their attitudes contrast with the second quarter, when the European fiscal crisis forced Trichet to buy government bonds for the first time and Bernanke discussed how and when to cut the Fed’s balance sheet.

Now the ECB is “actually looking to the timing of an exit policy, whereas the Fed has obviously put that on the back burner,” Mickey Levy, chief economist at Bank of America Corp. and a Jackson Hole regular, said in a Bloomberg Radio interview with Tom Keene. “The U.S. economy right now is in a soft patch and feels fragile, while in the aggregate the European economies have seemingly weathered the storm much better than people expected.”

Trichet’s optimism and Bernanke’s caution could strengthen the euro against the dollar, said Julian Callow, chief European economist at Barclays Capital in London. The dollar slid 0.5 percent yesterday in New York to $1.2719 per euro.

‘Inflation Entrenched’

“The ECB instinctively wants to anticipate a normalization of inflation, whereas the Fed would rather see inflation entrenched before normalizing policy,” said Callow, a former Bank of England economist. “The ECB seems to be viewing the world more optimistically and the Fed more pessimistically.”

The Kansas City Fed brings monetary policy makers and economists from more than 40 nations to the Jackson Lake Lodge for debates and hikes in the shadow of the Teton mountains. Bernanke will have his first public chance to defend the Aug. 10 decision and discuss his outlook when he speaks at 10 a.m. New York time. After a morning of presentations and discussions on economic issues, Trichet follows with a speech over lunch at 2:50 p.m.

Bernanke is likely to elaborate on how much Fed officials or staff economists have reduced their forecast for 2011 growth and provide “some degree of clarity” on possible plans for injecting more monetary stimulus, Paul McCulley, managing director at Pacific Investment Management Co., said in a Bloomberg Radio interview.

“The equity market may make a very loud noise in the negative direction” if Bernanke fails to deliver a clear message, McCulley said.

The disparity between Bernanke and Trichet has “shades of 2008,” Callow said, referring to the ECB’s decision of July that year to break with other central banks and raise interest rates while the Fed judged financial markets “remain under considerable stress.” In October 2008, Bernanke, Trichet and other central bankers engineered history’s broadest coordinated interest-rate cut.

The difference probably reflects the Fed’s mandate to achieve “maximum employment” and low inflation compared to the ECB’s primary focus on price stability, said Steven Bell, chief economist at London-based hedge fund GLC Ltd. and a former U.K. Treasury official.

Slower Growth

U.S. indicators are increasingly pointing to slower growth. Gains in private payrolls fell to an average 51,000 monthly pace in May through July from 119,000 in the first four months of 2010, while the jobless rate held at 9.5 percent last month.

JPMorgan Chase & Co. last week reduced its forecast for growth this quarter to an annual rate of 1.5 percent from 2.5 percent and lowered its estimate for the last three months of 2010 to 2 percent from 3 percent.

“The Fed has an employment issue, and Trichet does not,” said Diane Swonk, chief economist at Chicago-based Mesirow Financial Inc., who will be at the Jackson Hole conference. She said she’s looking for Bernanke, in his speech, to show “maybe not his hand but certainly to show he feels he still has an arsenal and to lay that arsenal out.”

If weakness in the U.S. economy persists in the coming weeks, “I don’t think they’ll have much choice” but to restart large-scale purchases of assets including mortgage-backed securities, said Swonk, whose firm oversees more than $40 billion.

Across Atlantic

Across the Atlantic, the euro-area is rebounding from its darkest hour when the escalation of the Greek-led fiscal crisis forced the ECB to halt its withdrawal of support for the region’s banks and reintroduce some support measures, such as unlimited three-month loans. Germany powered the 16-nation bloc to its fastest economic growth since 2006 in the second quarter, and inflation accelerated to the fastest pace in 20 months in July on rising energy prices.

Still, any differences between Bernanke and Trichet may be a matter of tone. ECB council member Axel Weber, who will be in Jackson Hole, said in an Aug. 19 interview with Bloomberg Television that the ECB should wait until the first quarter of next year before determining when to withdraw emergency lending measures.

Weber’s comments suggest the ECB’s tightening of unlimited bank lending programs will be “a little slower than looked likely previously,” said Klaus Baader, co-chief European economist at Societe Generale SA in London.

Not Immune

Ken Wattret, chief euro area economist at BNP Paribas SA, says Europe is not immune to events in the U.S. and that regardless of what Trichet says now he may have to follow Bernanke if the Fed buys more Treasuries than currently planned. Such purchases would weaken the dollar against the euro, threatening Europe’s export-led recovery, he said.

“If the U.S. economy is sufficiently weak to be giving Bernanke some anxiety, then that will have spillover effects on the ECB,” Wattret said. For now in Jackson Hole, “the thrust from Bernanke will be on what the Fed could still do, while the message from Trichet is that we have done all these measures and they appear to be working.”

[admin]

Bush retorna a la arena con sus memorias en la mano

Despues de mantenerse en silencio por 19 meses, el ex-presidente se hace publico nuevamente en momentos en que Obama esta revisitando sus recortes de impuestos (los quieren hacer expirar), las celulas madres y otros asuntos controversiales de su presidencia.

Mr. Bush promovera su libro, el cual sera publicado una semana despues de las elecciones del 2 de Noviembre.

La salida del book sugiere que no afectara las elecciones, Mr. Bush retorna a la vida publica justo cuando los republicanos se preparan para tomar el poder en el Congreso y se alistan a nominar a su candidato para el 2012 y cuando Obama acusa a lso republicanos de querer hacer regresar al pais a los programas de la era de Bush que segun el presidente han llevado al pais al estado en que se encuentra.

Y el contenido de sus memoria hace que su voz sea escuchada en los asuntos politicos del momento.

El libro "Decisions Points" detallas las 14 decisiones mas importantes de Mr. Bush durante su gobierno. Entre ellas, el apoyo al rescate financiero, sus recortes de impuestos, la limitacion de las celulas madres, y el envio de mas tropas a Irak en el llamado "surge"

Algunos de esos asuntos son relevantes nuevamente.

Por ejemplo los recortes de impuestos de Bush expiran a fin de anio y se convertira en el mas fiero debate para los legisladores este otonio.

Mr. Bush prometio no criticar al nuevo presidente cuando cumplio su mandato. Promesa que ha cumplido.

La aprobacion de Mr. Bush esta en 45% es decir es mas alta que la de Obama actualmente.

Mr Bush ha dado 60 discursos alrededor de US, Europa y Asia.


Bush Returns to Arena With Memoir in Hand

By PETER WALLSTEN
George W. Bush has remained mostly out of view and silent on policy debates since leaving office 19 months ago.

.Now, the former president is about to step into the public arena again, at a moment when Washington is revisiting tax cuts, stem cells and other issues that were among the most contentious of his administration.

Mr. Bush is re-emerging to promote his memoir, to be published a week after the Nov. 2 elections.

While the timing suggests that the book will not provide fodder for midterm campaigns, Mr. Bush will return to the public eye just as the Republican Party looks ahead to asserting greater power in Congress and to choosing its 2012 presidential nominee, and as President Barack Obama accuses the GOP of wanting to take the country back to Bush-era programs that, the Democratic president says, "drove the car into the ditch."

And the contents of his memoir make it likely that his voice will be heard on policy issues of the moment.

The book, "Decision Points," published by Crown Publishing Group, lays out 14 major decisions by Mr. Bush during his life and White House tenure. Among them, according to several people who have seen the manuscript: backing the bailout of the nation's financial system, enacting billions of dollars in tax cuts, limiting the use of human embryonic stem cells, and building up troops in Iraq for the so-called surge.

Some of those issues have regained prominence recently.

Due to a court ruling this week, lawmakers this fall may revisit the question of federal funding for embryonic stem cell research, one of the major domestic controversies of Mr. Bush's early years in office.

View Full Image
.Mr. Bush's tax cuts expire at year's end, making them a likely topic of debate by lawmakers this fall, while Mr. Obama's commission on deficit reduction is scheduled to submit its report on related subjects Dec. 1.

Leading up to the midterm elections, the financial bailout also has emerged as a point of debate on the role of government. And this month's drawdown of U.S. forces in Iraq, and the transition away from a combat focus, has spurred debate over Mr. Bush's surge.

Mr. Bush also offers new details on his decisions during Hurricane Katrina, and on immigration, the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks, the invasions of Iraq and Afghanistan and other war-related issues, such as the controversial warrantless wiretapping program.

Mr. Bush's promotional efforts begin Nov. 8 with a one-hour, prime-time special on NBC hosted by Matt Lauer. Advisors to Mr. Bush say other media interviews and a book tour are in the works, possibly further opening him to questions from the media and the public.

Several close advisors to Mr. Bush said in interviews they hoped the book, along with the new museum and presidential center at Southern Methodist University, would begin to redefine the public's view of a president who left office with approval ratings in the 30s.

Mr. Bush has remained mostly silent and out of public view recently, though he has delivered more than 60 paid speeches in the U.S., Europe and Asia. As former Vice President Dick Cheney led the charge in criticizing Mr. Obama's foreign policy, Mr. Bush said that he would not criticize his successor—a pledge that advisers said Mr. Bush will keep.

The former first family's only campaign trail appearance will come next month, when Laura Bush headlines a fundraiser for GOP Rep. Aaron Schock of Illinois.

Polls show Mr. Bush remains an unpopular figure but less divisive than he was during his final months in office. A June Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll found that half of Americans felt negatively toward him, compared with 60% who felt that way immediately before the 2008 election.

A new ad by the Democratic National Committee features an image of Mr. Bush and his voice as a narrator warns of returning to policies of the past.

Karl Rove, Mr. Bush's longtime political strategist, noted that, according to Gallup, Mr. Bush's approval rating stands at 45%—higher than Mr. Obama's in some surveys and a 10-point rise from the former president's standing a year ago.

Mr. Rove said that the president's attacks on Mr. Bush would only serve to raise questions about Mr. Obama. "The energetic hard left of the Democratic Party will say, 'Hooray,' but the vast bulk of the people will say, 'What about now? What have you done?"' Mr. Rove said.

Write to Peter Wallsten at peter.wallsten@wsj.com

[El_Diez]

"Si los bonos a 10 años alcanzan el 2%, EEUU irá de cabeza a la deflación"

El parqué de la New York Stock Exchange (NYSE por sus siglas en inglés) está que arde y los inversores muestran una vez más sus dudas sobre la marcha de la economía norteamericana. Alan Valdes, estratega jefe de Kabrick Capital, explicó a elEconomista que a día de hoy, Estados Unidos "puede elegir su veneno", bien sea la deflación o una doble recesión.
Aún así, este trader se mostró optimista al indicar que pese a que muchos piensan que EEUU podría volver a contraerse, las posibilidades siguen siendo limitadas. De todos modos indicó que mercado de renta variable"podría acabar el año entre los 8.000 y 8.500 puntos".
"No existen motivos para pensar en subidas, especialmente en lo que queda de verano. La presentación de resultados ha acabado, no habrá grandes noticias hasta las elecciones del próximo noviembre... por lo que el mercado operará a la baja", explicó.
Al hablar del estancamiento de la economía de EEUU, Valdes puso de manifiesto que "si los bonos a 10 años tocan el 2%, iremos de cabeza a la deflación", algo que podría extenderse durante los próximos cinco años. Por supuesto "esta situación enfriaría la liquidez empresarial y desencadenaría más despidos", indicó.
Eso sí, el estratega de Kabrick Capital indicó que si el interés de los bonos a 10 años se mantiene en la cota del 2,3 o el 2,4 por ciento, "EEUU capeará la caída de precios". Ayer estos instrumentos de deuda pública cerraban en el 2,5%.
Por otro lado, aseguró que "la Fed no aplicará su política expansiva hasta octubre o noviembre". "Desde luego más estímulo no es sostenible y no funciona, lo que hay que hacer es rebajar los impuestos", aclaró.

[admin]

3Par acepta la oferta de Dell.

Boeing pospone la entrega de los Dreamliners.

Los futures suben antes de las palabras de Bernanke. Por lo menos hay menor enfasis en la revision a la baja del GDP (PBI)

Oil up 73.44

Europa mixta, el Asia cerro al alza.

3Par mas del 10% al alza.

+28

Yields igual 2.50%

Au 1,238, futures cu down 3.31

[admin]

Libor igual 0.30%

[admin]

Copper August 27,08:03
Bid/Ask 3.3065 - 3.3111
Change +0.0023 +0.07%
Low/High 3.2689 - 3.3224
Charts

Nickel August 27,07:58
Bid/Ask 9.3538 - 9.3992
Change +0.0748 +0.81%
Low/High 9.1973 - 9.4536
Charts

Aluminum August 27,08:03
Bid/Ask 0.8896 - 0.8941
Change -0.0041 -0.46%
Low/High 0.8887 - 0.9005
Charts

Zinc August 27,08:03
Bid/Ask 0.9168 - 0.9213
Change +0.0018 +0.20%
Low/High 0.9082 - 0.9263
Charts

Lead August 27,08:03
Bid/Ask 0.9086 - 0.9132
Change +0.0036 +0.40%
Low/High 0.8977 - 0.9186

[admin]

Euro up 1.2719