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Eventos economicos

Lunes

Subasta de bonos

Entre los mas importantes de la semana tenemos los precios delos importadores y exportadores el Martes, las ventas retail, los inventarios de negocios y el libro Beige de book el Miercoles, los precios de los productores el Jueves, el CPI (inflacion), el sondeo Empire State, la produccion industrial, el sentimiento del consumidor y el capital internacional del tesoro el Viernes.

4-Week Bill Announcement
11:00 AM ET


3-Month Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET


6-Month Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET


NFIB Small Business Optimism Index
7:30 AM ET


ICSC-Goldman Store Sales
7:45 AM ET


International Trade
8:30 AM ET


Import and Export Prices
8:30 AM ET


Redbook
8:55 AM ET


4-Week Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET


3-Yr Note Auction
1:00 PM ET


Treasury Budget
2:00 PM ET


MBA Purchase Applications
7:00 AM ET


Retail Sales
8:30 AM ET


Business Inventories
10:00 AM ET


EIA Petroleum Status Report
10:30 AM ET


10-Yr Note Auction
1:00 PM ET


Beige Book
2:00 PM ET

Weekly Bill Settlement


Producer Price Index
8:30 AM ET


Jobless Claims
8:30 AM ET


EIA Natural Gas Report
10:30 AM ET


3-Month Bill Announcement
11:00 AM ET


6-Month Bill Announcement
11:00 AM ET


5-Yr TIPS Announcement
11:00 AM ET


30-Yr Bond Auction
1:00 PM ET


Fed Balance Sheet
4:30 PM ET


Money Supply
4:30 PM ET

3-Yr Note Settlement

10-Yr Note Settlement

30-Yr Bond Settlement


Consumer Price Index
8:30 AM ET


Empire State Mfg Survey
8:30 AM ET


Treasury International Capital
9:00 AM ET


Industrial Production
9:15 AM ET


Consumer Sentiment
9:55 AM ET

El NYSE rechazo la oferta de Nasdaq, prefiere la oferta de Deusche Borse.

Alcoa apertura la estacion de utilidades el Lunes, se esperan mejores resultados a los esperados con un aumento de ventas del 24%.

Next Week’s Tape: Earnings Kickoff!

Alcoa is expected to report improved results Monday, with revenue seen rising 24% to $6.07 billion and adjusted earnings expected to increase to 27 cents from 10 cents a share, according to analysts polled by Thomson Reuters.

Banking giants J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. and Bank of America Corp. begin the parade of first-quarter reports next week, although expectations are muted as costs continue to rise. J.P. Morgan’s results are due Wednesday, while Bank of America reports Friday. Analysts expect both to report lower revenue from year-ago levels, although J.P Morgan’s bottom line is expected to climb.

The Bank of Korea is expected to hold off from further monetary tightening at its April interest rate review Tuesday, although rising inflation pressure will likely prompt the central bank to raise the rate as early as next month, according to analysts. A Dow Jones Newswires survey found analysts and economists unanimously forecast the bank to keep its key rate at 3.00% this month. Meanwhile, economists surveyed by Dow Jones forecast the Bank of Canada will maintain rates on Tuesday, marking the fifth-straight stand-pat announcement for Canada’s central bank, following a series of rate hikes last year.

March data is due for the Department of Labor’s Consumer Price Index, which measures the price of a fixed market basket of goods and services purchased by consumers, and the Producer Price Index, which measures the price of goods at the wholesale level. Prices for both indexes grew last month on the back of higher energy and food prices. However, a partial shutdown of the U.S. government would postpone the release of economic data. A failure by Congress to solve the budget impasse by midnight Friday would force the closure of the Labor Department.

China por primera vez reporta un deficit en su balanza comercial en el primer trimestre.

China Posts Trade Deficit for Quarter

By AARON BACK
BEIJING—China eked out a small trade surplus in March, the government said, but it was left with its first quarterly deficit in seven years, highlighting the impact of rising prices for imported commodities on the world's biggest exporting nation.

The trade balance swung to a $139 million surplus in March from a $7.3 billion deficit in February, data from China's customs bureau showed Sunday, bringing the first-quarter deficit to $1.02 billion. China last reported a quarterly trade deficit for the first three months of 2004.

China is still widely expected to post a significant trade surplus for the full year. Its foreign trade tends to go through a seasonal cycle, where companies stock up on imported raw materials early in the year, which are then processed into exports.

Economists, however, expect China's annual surplus to gradually narrow over the long-term. A slowly strengthening currency is making exports more expensive in dollar terms, and therefore less competitive in foreign markets. Rising labor costs and general inflation within China also are weakening its export strength, while rising commodity prices around the world are inflating the costs of imports, worsening China's terms of trade.

Wang Tao, China economist for UBS, estimates China's trade surplus this year will be around $150 billion, which would be down nearly a fifth from last year's level and mark the third straight year of decline.

Continued narrowing in China's trade surplus would be welcome news to the U.S. and other trading partners, who argue that a rebalancing of trade with China is essential to securing a stronger global economic recovery.

"The rebalancing is happening. It's only a matter of time," said BNP Paribas economist Isaac Meng.

China continues to run large bilateral surpluses with the U.S., suggesting trade relations between the two countries may remain tense. China had a $13.03 billion surplus with the U.S. in March and a $34.55 billion surplus with the U.S. in the first quarter overall, according to Sunday's customs-bureau data.

The U.S. issues its own estimates of its trade balance with China that can differ substantially from the Chinese statistics due to differences over how to count things suchas exports routed through Hong Kong. U.S. trade data for the month of February are due to be released Tuesday.

The weakening of China's net exports could undercut the arguments of those within China pushing for faster appreciation of the yuan—something the U.S., Europe and other trading partners have been demanding. The yuan has closed at record highs against the dollar for six straight trading sessions in China's tightly controlled foreign-exchange markets, but it is still up only about 4.5% since Beijing ended its de facto peg to the U.S. currency in June.

On Friday, Lawrence Lau, chairman of the Hong Kong unit of China Investment Corp., the country's sovereign-wealth fund, argued in a public lecture that recent trade data indicate there is no need for further appreciation.

"Currently China is beginning to see trade deficits. If trade is balanced, then there's no need to adjust the yuan," said the economist and former academic.

Mr. Lau, as a manager of the sovereign-wealth fund, has no actual influence on exchange-rate policy, but his comments reflect the views of many policy makers in China. Economists generally expect China to maintain a gradual pace of appreciation of around 5% a year against the dollar.

Faster appreciation of the yuan could help alleviate inflation pressure, by making imports less expensive in local currency terms. The impact of rising commodity prices was clearly visible in China's first-quarter trade data. The average price for imported soybeans in the first quarter rose 25.7% from a year earlier, while the average price for imported iron ore—the key ingredient in the steel gobbled up by China's property and infrastructure building boom—surged 59.5%, the customs bureau said in its statement.

Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao has said fighting inflation is the government's top priority this year, a message he echoed on Saturday. "Achieving stability in price levels is the most important task of our macroeconomic controls right now," the premier said during a visit with fisherman and factory workers in the eastern province of Zhejiang. He listed the exchange rate as one of several policy tools China has to use toward that goal.

Still, Mr. Wen and others have made clear that the yuan's rise will continue to be gradual, and that they don't see the exchange rate as a primary weapon against inflation.

China's trade performance in March was actually stronger than many economists expected. The median forecast in a Dow Jones survey of economists was for a deficit in the month of $4 billion.

Imports in March rose 27.3% from a year earlier, up from February's 19.4% rise. Exports rose by 35.8% from a year earlier, up from February's 2.4% rise, which was suppressed due to the Lunar New Year holiday that month, when many exporters shut down production.

"China's demand is strong and the prices of bulk commodities are high currently, but the situation won't last, as China's exports usually go up in the second half of each year," said Ms. Wang of UBS.

Last year saw a similar seasonal pattern. China posted a $7.24 billion deficit in March, which was the first monthly deficit since April of 2004, but the deficit vanished the next month, and China posted a $183.1 billion surplus for the full year.

—Yajun Zhang and Eliot Gao contributed to this article.

La bolsa de Dubai sube a su punto mas alto en casi dos meses.

Se espera que las ventas retail hayan subido en Marzo.

Humala habría ganado primera ronda presidencial de Perú: sondeos
domingo 10 de abril de 2011 17:07 GYT Imprimir [-] Texto [+]
LIMA (Reuters) - Ollanta Humala, quien ha seducido a muchos tras moderar un discurso de izquierda, habría ganado el domingo la primera ronda presidencial de Perú y pasaría a un balotaje para definir la contienda, según conteos a boca de urna de tres importantes encuestadoras.

Humala habría obtenido un 31,6 por ciento de votos según el conteo a boca de urna de la firma Ipsos Apoyo, un 33,8 por ciento de acuerdo a la empresa Datum Internacional y 33 por ciento en la firma CPI.

La legisladora Keiko Fujimori -hija del apresado ex presidente Alberto Fujimori- habría obtenido por su parte un 21,4 por ciento según Ipsos Apoyo, 21,3 por ciento según Datum y 22 por ciento en CPI.

Con este resultado, Humala y Fujimori tendrían el derecho de disputar la presidencia en la segunda ronda prevista para el 5 de junio, aunque no todo está dicho debido a la apretada elección y tampoco se puede descartar aún al ex ministro de Economía Pedro Pablo Kuczynski.

Kuczynski habría obtenido un 19,2 por ciento según Ipsos Apoyo, un 19,5 por ciento de acuerdo a Datum y un 19 por ciento según CPI.

Mientras tanto el ex mandatario Alejandro Toledo tiene un 16,1 por ciento en Ipsos Apoyo y un 15,2 por ciento en Datum.

(Reporte de Teresa Céspedes y Patricia Vélez, Editado por Marco Aquino)

Buenas Noches a todos. Que tal Aguila siempre leo el foro.
Mi padre fue miembro de mesa , gano Ollanta .
Segun la ONPE de la Sra Chung los datos recolectados al 18 % son mediatnte internet, hay que recordar que fuera de la costa el acceso a internet es poco o nulo
A solo dos horas(hacia la sierra) de donde vivo- Lambayeque, no hay internet ni en las municipalidades.
Se espera que se corrobore la tendencia de que pasan Keiko Fujimori y Humala como primero (espero que no y que PPK no baje)


****
RPP

La Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales (ONPE) ofreció esta noche el avance al 18.228% a nivel nacional de los comicios presidenciales que se llevaron a cabo este domingo en nuestro país.

En el reporte, que es el primero que da oficialmente la ONPE, figura en el primer lugar el nacionalista Ollanta Humala con 26.5%, seguido por Pedro Pablo Kuczynski, de Alianza para el Gran Cambio, con 24.4%.

Más atrás, en el tercer lugar, figura Keiko Fujimori le sigue bastante de cerca con el 21.09% de los votos.

Rezagado en el cuarto puesto, como lo informó el sondeo a boca de urna, sigue el ex mandatario Alejandro Toledo con 15.59% de las preferencias, mientras que el ex alcalde Luis Castañeda Lossio queda quinto con 11.62%.

Asia-Pacific
INDEX VALUE CHANGE % CHANGE TIME
NIKKEI 225 9,714.27 -53.81 -0.55% 21:33
HANG SENG INDEX 24,387.30 -8.79 -0.04% 21:37
S&P/ASX 200 INDEX 4,951.20 10.60 0.21% 21:51
More Asia-Pacific Indexes »

Treasurys Price Chg Yield %
2-Year Note* -2/32 0.814
10-Year Note* -9/32 3.583
* at close

10:44 p.m. EDT 04/10/11Futures Last Change Settle
Crude Oil 112.74 -0.05 112.79
Gold 1474.6 0.5 1474.1
DJ Industrials 12353 27 12326
S&P 500 1326.30 2.50 1323.80

10:54 p.m. EDT 04/10/11Currencies Last (bid) Prior Day †
Japanese Yen (USD/JPY) 84.75 84.85
Euro (EUR/USD) 1.4462 1.4457
† Late Friday in New York.

Copper April 10,22:39
Bid/Ask 4.4821 - 4.4838
Change +0.0077 +0.17%
Low/High 4.4608 - 4.4903
Charts

Nickel April 10,22:39
Bid/Ask 12.6059 - 12.6277
Change +0.1583 +1.27%
Low/High 12.4476 - 12.6826
Charts

Aluminum April 10,22:37
Bid/Ask 1.2053 - 1.2079
Change -0.0010 -0.08%
Low/High 1.2039 - 1.2098
Charts

Zinc April 10,22:36
Bid/Ask 1.1333 - 1.1342
Change +0.0012 +0.11%
Low/High 1.1288 - 1.1432
Charts

Lead April 10,22:37
Bid/Ask 1.3181 - 1.3219
Change +0.0043 +0.33%
Low/High 1.3115 - 1.3265

Au up

SPOT MARKET IS OPEN
closes in 18 hrs. 17 mins.
Apr 10, 2011 22:58 NY Time
Bid/Ask 1473.60 - 1474.60
Low/High 1470.70 - 1478.40
Change -1.40 -0.09%
30daychg +42.50 +2.97%
1yearchg +322.40 +28.01%
Charts...

Australia +0.25%, el Shanghai C. +0.60%, el Hang Seng -0.06%, Korea -0.22%, el Nikkei -0.38%

Oil down 112.75

Euro up 1.4462

+27

Yen up 84.82

Un izquierdista y la hija de un ex-presidente lideran el Voto Peruano

Ollanta Humala un ex-militar izquierdista y Keiko Fujimori, hija de un ex-presidente quien esta preso, pasan a la segunda vuelta dejando a los inversionistas pensando en sus opciones, despues que los dos emergieron como ganadores en la primera vuelta electoral el Domingo.

Mr. Humala, quien ha asustado a los executivos de negocios al criticar los acuerdos de libre comercio que ha firmado el Peru, ha ofrecido un alza de salarios y pensiones, obtuvo un 31.6% de los votos de acuerdo a un conteo rapido de la agencia Apoyo. En segundo lugar con 23% de los votos, Mrs. Fujimori, quien heredo la maquinaria politica de su padre Alberto Fujimori, de acuerdo a Ipsos Apoyo. En tercer lugar PPK con 19.1%. La segunda vuelta entre los dos ganadores se realizara el 5 de Junio.

El novelista ganandor del Nobel Prize, conservador, dijo previamente que esa alternativa era como votar entre el Sida y el cancer terminal. El cientifico politico Julio Carrion llamo a los resultados: la peor alternativa. Efectivamente, Humala podria dar marcha atras a las politicas orientadas al libre mercado que han ayudado a la economia del Peru a ser una de las que mas crecen en el mundo. En los ultimos 6 anios, la economia Peruana se ha expandido a un promedio del 7% anual.

Mientras tanto, los criticos de Mrs. Fujimori temen que su gobierno pueda revivir la corrupcion y el autoritarismo del gobierno de su padre. Mr. Carrion dice que Mrs. Fujimori podria tener la ventaja en la segunda vuelta, porque los otros partidos politicos porian preferir hacer acuerdos con Mrs. Fujimori que con Humala. El dice que los dos candidatos parecen asegurar a los mercados financieros anunciando quienes serian primer ministros y otros en la cartera.

Mr. Humala, quien perdio en la segunda vuelta en el 2006, tuvo la asesoria de los asesores politicos de Brasil, quien trataron de moderar su mensaje, en el estilo del ex-presidente Brasilero Luiz Inacio Lula de Silva. Sin embargo Mr. Humala dice que favorece las politicas de aumentar beneficios para los trabajadores Peruanos, ofrece aumentar los impuestos a las mineras, quienes general la riqueza del Peri. El tambien propone reformar la constitucion. Eso preocupa a algunos Peruanos y analistas quienes notan como Hugo Chavez cambio la constitucion de Venezuela para quedarse en el poder desde su primera eleccion en 1999.

Ms. Fujimori ha indicado que ella continuara con las politicadas de libres mercados que el Peru ha seguido en lso ultimos anios y que su padre introdujo en los 90s. Pero ella tiene algunos problemas, dicen los analistas. Ms. Fujimori lanzo su carrera politica a la sombra de su padre, decano de la universidad Agraria, quien sobresalio de la noche a la maniana para ganar la presidencia en 1990. Ms. Fujimori emerge en la vida publica en 1994 cuando a la edad de 19 anios se convirtio en la primera dama despues que Mr. Fujimori se divorcio y segun algunos encerro a su esposa en el palacio presidencial. Mr. Fujimori y su hija gozaron de popularidad cuando su gobierno domino la inflacion de cuatro digitos y derroto a los terroristas Maoistas.

Pero en el 2000, la salida de los videos del jefe de inteligencia de Fujimori, Vladimiro Montesinos, pagando coimas a miembros del congreso, y ejecutivos de medios de comunicacion forzaron a Fujimori a viajar al Japon. El renuncio a la presidencia via fax. Mr Fujimori fue arrestado en Chile y extraditado al Peru. En el 2009, Mr. Fujimori fue sentenciado a 25 anios de prision por su papel en dos masacres militares durante el conflicto con las guerrillas en los 90s.

Ms. Fujimori, quien tiene un titulo en administracion de empresas en Boston University, saco ventaja de la fuerza politica entre los barrios pobres, donde Fujimori fue exitoso en disminuir la inflacion y combatio a los terroristas, y donde aun es muy recordado. Sus operadores ofrecieron t-shirts a cambio de poder pintar la palabra Keiko en rojo en sus casas. Cientos tornaron sus casas en paneles publicitarios para la campania presidencial de Keiko Fujimori.

Mr. Carrion dijo que los resultados de la eleccion reflejan la debilida del sistema de partidos del Peru, que deja el apoyo fragmentado. En cuarto lugar, de acuerdo a Ipsos Apoyo, el ex presidente Alejandro Toledo con 15.7% seguido por el ex alcalde Limenio Luis Castaneda con 10%


Leftist, Ex-President's Daughter Lead Peruvian Vote

By MATT MOFFETT
LIMA, Peru—Ollanta Humala, a left-leaning former military officer, and Keiko Fujimori, daughter of an imprisoned ex-president, appeared headed for a runoff election that will leave many investors in this booming economy ruing the options, after the two emerged as the top vote-getters in the first round presidential balloting Sunday.

Mr. Humala, who has rattled business executives by criticizing recently signed Peruvian trade treaties and promising higher salaries and pensions, obtained 31.6% of the vote, according to a quick count by Ipsos Apoyo agency. In second place with 23% was Ms. Fujimori, who inherited the political machine of her jailed father Alberto Fujimori, according to Ipsos Apoyo. In third place was Pedro Pablo Kuczynski, a former investment banker and prime minister, with 19.1% of the vote. The runoff between the two top vote-getters is set for June 5.

Nobel Prize winning Peruvian novelist Mario Vargas Llosa, a conservative, had previously dubbed a hypothetical runoff between the Mr. Humala, 48 years old, and Ms. Fujimori, 35 years old, as comparable to "choosing between AIDS and terminal cancer." University of Delaware political scientist Julio Carrion called it "the worst possible outcome." Indeed, financial markets fret that Mr. Humala might reverse the market-oriented policies that have helped turn Peru into one of the world's fastest growing economies. Over the past six years, the Peruvian economy has expanded at an average annual rate of 7%.

Meanwhile Ms. Fujimori's critics worry that her government could revive the corruption and authoritarianism that ran rampant in the government of her father. Mr. Carrion said that Ms. Fujimori might have an edge heading into the runoff, because other political factions might be more willing to cut deals with her than they would with Mr. Humala. He said both candidates seemed likely to try to assuage voters and financial markets by indicating who would hold the prime ministry and other key positions in their governments.

Mr. Humala, who narrowly lost the presidency in 2006 running with a full-throated populist message, retained Brazilian political advisers who tried to cast him in a more moderate light, in the style of that country's former president, Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva. Still, Mr. Humala says he favors politically popular benefit increases to Peruvian workers and higher taxes on the mining companies, which generate much of Peru's wealth. He also supports rewriting Peru's constitution. That worries some Peruvian analysts who noted how Hugo Chávez redrafted the Venezuelan constitution to help entrench himself in power since he was first elected in 1999.

Ms. Fujimori has indicated she would continue the market-oriented policies that Peru has followed in recent years and that her father introduced in the 1990s. But she has other baggage, analysts say. Ms. Fujimori's political career was launched in the shadow of her father, an agronomy school dean, who came out of nowhere to win the presidency in 1990. Ms. Fujimori emerged in the public eye in 1994 at the age of 19 when she became Peru's first lady after Mr. Fujimori went through a messy divorce that saw him lock his wife out of the presidential palace. Mr. Fujimori and his daughter basked in the glow of popularity as the government tamed four-digit inflation and broke the back of a Maoist guerrilla insurgency.

But then in 2000, the release of videos of Mr. Fujimori's intelligence chief, Vladimiro Montesinos, paying bribes to congressmen and news executives prompted Mr. Fujimori to flee to Japan. He resigned the presidency by fax. Mr. Fujimori was subsequently arrested while visiting Chile and extradited to Peru. In 2009, Mr. Fujimori was sentenced to 25 years in prison for his involvement in two military massacres during a conflict with guerrillas in the 1990s.

Ms. Fujimori, who has a degree in business administration from Boston University, took advantage of a strong political network in Peruvian slums, where Mr. Fujimori's success in taming inflation and terrorists are still fondly remembered. Her operators offered slum residents t-shirts in return for being allowed to paint the word "Keiko" in red on their houses. Hundreds turned their houses into billboards for the Fujimori campaign.

Mr. Carrion said the results of the election reflect Peru's weak party system, which leaves support splintered among many factions. In fourth place, according to Ipsos Apoyo, was ex-president Alejandro Toledo with 15.7%, followed by ex Lima mayor Luis Castaneda with 10%.

—Robert Kozak contributed to this article.

La primera victoria del tea party

Obama se opone a los recortes del gasto, inmediatamente despues los festeja llamandolos historicos.

Esto se esta convirtiendo en un habito, Obama ferozmente se resistio a aceptar los recortes de impuestos, los tratados de libre comercio y los recortes del gasto de gobierno y en el momento que los republicanos lo obligan a recortar impuestos, aprobar los TLC y recortas los gastos, Obama dice que fueron si idea. Esos son los efectos de las elecciones de Noviembre. Que tal diferencia.



The Tea Party's First Victory
Obama opposes spending cuts right up to the time he calls them historic.

This is getting to be a habit. President Obama ferociously resists tax cuts, trade agreements and spending cuts—right up to the moment he strikes a deal with Republicans and hails the tax cuts, trade agreements and spending cuts as his idea. What a difference an election makes.

This is the larger political meaning of Friday's last minute budget deal for fiscal 2011 that averted a government shutdown. Mr. Obama has now agreed to a pair of tax cut and spending deals that repudiate his core economic philosophy and his agenda of the last two years—and has then hailed both as great achievements. Republicans in Washington have reversed the nation's fiscal debate and are slowly repairing the harm done since the Nancy Pelosi Congress began to set the direction of government in 2007.

***
Yes, we know, $39 billion in spending cuts for 2011 is less than the $61 billion passed by the House and shrinks the overall federal budget by only a little more than 1%. The compromise also doesn't repeal ObamaCare, kill the EPA's anticarbon rules, defund Planned Parenthood, reform the entitlement state, or part the Red Sea.

On the other hand, the Obama-Pelosi Leviathan wasn't built in a day, and it won't be cut down to size in one budget. Especially not in a fiscal year that only has six months left and with Democrats running the Senate and White House. Friday's deal cuts more spending in any single year than we can remember, $78 billion more than President Obama first proposed. Domestic discretionary spending grew by 6% in 2008, 11% in 2009 and 14% in 2010, but this year will fall by 4%. That's no small reversal.

The budget does this while holding the line against defense cuts that Democrats wanted and restoring the school voucher program for Washington, D.C. for thousands of poor children. Tom DeLay—the talk radio hero when he ran the House—never passed a budget close to this good.

The political gains are also considerable. When Mr. Obama introduced his 2012 budget in February, he proposed more spending on his priorities in return for essentially no cuts. Two months later, the debate is entirely about how much spending to cut and which part of government to reform. Democrats were forced to play defense nearly across the board, obliged to defend programs (National Public Radio) that were once thought to be untouchable shrines of modern liberalism.

Republicans also showed they are able to make the compromises required to govern. We realize that "governing" can often be an excuse for incumbent self-interest. But this early show of political maturity will demonstrate to independents that the freshmen and tea party Republicans they elected in November aren't the yahoos of media lore. A government shutdown over a spending difference of $7 billion and some policy riders would have made the GOP look reckless for little return.

Now the battle moves to the debt ceiling increase and Paul Ryan's new 2012 budget later this year, and there are lessons from this fight to keep in mind. One is to focus on spending and budget issues, not extraneous policy fights. Republicans have the advantage when they are talking about the overall level of spending and ways to control it. They lose that edge when the debate veers off into a battle over social issues.

We certainly agree that, amid a $1.5 trillion deficit, taxpayer funding for Planned Parenthood is preposterous. Let George Soros or Peter Lewis spend their private fortunes to support the group's abortion counseling. But Mr. Boehner was wise to drop the provision on Friday rather than let Mr. Obama portray a shutdown as a fight over abortion rights. If Republicans want to win this fight in the coming months, they need to convince voters that Planned Parenthood funding is a low fiscal priority, not make it seem as if they want to use the budget to stage a cultural brawl.

This point is especially crucial in the looming showdown over increasing the debt limit. Mr. Obama will marshal a parade of Wall Street and Federal Reserve worthies predicting Armageddon if the debt limit isn't raised as early as mid-May. Republicans will play into his hands of they seek to load up any debt limit increase with policies unrelated to spending and debt reduction.

The best advice we've heard is from former Senator Phil Gramm, who says Republicans should agree that families and nations should always honor their debts. But in doing so they should also make sure they won't pile up new debt. For a family, that means cutting up the credit cards. For Congress, it means passing budget reforms that impose hard and enforceable limits on new spending and debt.

We are not talking here about that hardy perennial, a balanced budget amendment to the Constitution, that would easily become a lever for Democrats to push for higher taxes. Far better would be statutory limits on spending increases and debt as a share of GDP, sequesters that automatically cut spending if Congress exceeds those limits, supermajority rules for replacing those limits, and revisions of the budget baseline so that each year's budget begins at last year's spending levels, not with automatic increases.

This is the kind of reform the public will understand is directly related to the debt limit, and one that Senate Democrats and Mr. Obama will find hard to oppose. Republicans should waste no time starting to explain their debt-limit terms, so voters also understand the GOP isn't toying with default as a political ploy.

***
One of the ironies of Friday's budget deal is that it is being criticized both by Ms. Pelosi and some conservative Republicans. We can understand Ms. Pelosi's angst. But conservatives are misguided if they think they could have done much better than Mr. Boehner, or that a shutdown would have helped their cause. Republicans need to stay united for the bigger fights to come this year, and for now they and the tea party can take credit for spending cuts that even Mr. Obama feels politically obliged to sell as historic.

Al 43%: Humala 26,9%; PPK 23,6%; Keiko 21,8%. Esta ubicación podría cambia en desmedro de PPK porque los votos contabilizados son de las zonas más cercanas a los centros de cómputo, falta básicamente el voto rural, que le será más favorable a Humala y Keiko. Con esto, la segunda vuelta es Humala-Keiko, que coincide con los conteos rápidos de las encuestadoras y de Transparencia, que son números más fidedignos por ser muestras, el de la ONPE es un conteo tal cual.