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Eventos economicos

Miercoles

Solicitudes de hipotecas
Indice de casas pendientes
Reporte del petroleo
Subasta de bonos
Precios de los agricultores

Bank Reserve Settlement


MBA Purchase Applications
7:00 AM ET


Pending Home Sales Index
10:00 AM ET


EIA Petroleum Status Report
10:30 AM ET


7-Yr Note Auction
1:00 PM ET


Farm Prices
3:00 PM ET

Dijeron que los inventarios de petroleo habian bajado, ojala sea verdad. Tenemos el indice de casas pendientes, el indicador de los precios mejoro algo, vamos a ver si es tendencia o fue solo un incidente.

Grecia vota por la austeridad, debe pasar por un pelo, mientras tanto los Griegos siguen protestando por que se les acaba la mamadera. Ojala que todo el mundo este aprendiendo las lecciones que deja Grecia.

Los metales mixtos a esta hora.

Copper June 28,20:59
Bid/Ask 4.1049 - 4.1090
Change +0.0078 +0.19%
Low/High 4.0957 - 4.1207
Charts

Nickel June 28,20:59
Bid/Ask 10.2553 - 10.2767
Change +0.0342 +0.33%
Low/High 10.1232 - 10.3046
Charts

Aluminum June 28,20:59
Bid/Ask 1.1216 - 1.1223
Change +0.0016 +0.14%
Low/High 1.1173 - 1.1236
Charts

Zinc June 28,20:59
Bid/Ask 1.0166 - 1.0194
Change -0.0031 -0.31%
Low/High 1.0163 - 1.0314
Charts

Lead June 28,20:21
Bid/Ask 1.1626 - 1.1671
Change -0.0005 -0.04%
Low/High 1.1612 - 1.1689

Treasurys Price Chg Yield %
2-Year Note* -5/32 0.482
10-Year Note* -28/32 3.036
* at close

9:00 p.m. EDT 06/28/11Futures Last Change Settle
Crude Oil 92.87 -0.02 92.89
Gold 1504.6 4.4 1500.2
DJ Industrials 12135 -6 12141
S&P 500 1293.00 -1.50 1294.50

9:10 p.m. EDT 06/28/11Currencies Last (bid) Prior Day †
Japanese Yen (USD/JPY) 81.01 81.13
Euro (EUR/USD) 1.4358 1.4371
† Late Tuesday in New York.

Yen up 81.01

El Nikkei up 1.09%, Korea +1.23%

Au up 1,503.70, Ag up.

Los futures del Dow Jones 6 puntos a la baja.

Oil down 92.70

Yields down 3.02%

Euro down 1.4347

El Shanghai C. -0.67%

Morgan Stanley dijo que sufrio perdidas en sus operaciones de trading.

El euro cae.

Las ordenes de fabricas en Japon suben por segundo mes consecutivo, esta vez 5.7% en Mayo comparado con Abril cuando subieron 1.6%.

A pesar del alza de los intereses la economia de India subira 8.5%

Las propiedades comerciales en Australia se han cuatriplicado.

JPM dice que AIG podria tener $500 millones de perdidas debido a las tormentas en Abril y Mayo.

El Fed extiende el programa de prestamos para lso bancos centrales en Europa y alrededor del mundo. Esa es una garantia.

Tomorrow’s Tape: Vote Early, Vote Often

By Mark Gongloff

Economics:

5:00 a.m. to 6:00 a.m. ET all the time: A whole bunch of eurozone economic data pop out of the oven, including literally five different confidence readings. Sounds exhausting.
7:00 a.m.: MBA mortgage-application data, come on down.
10:00 a.m.: The National Association of Realtors wheels out pending home-sales data for your inspection. Economists actually expect an improvement. You read that right.
Earnings: We get reports from:

American Greetings
Family Dollar
General Mills
KB Home
Monsanto
FedSpeak:

12:00 p.m.: Fed Governor Sarah Bloom Raskin talks about “economic inclusion.” I think we’d all like inclusion in the economy.
Other:

What else, what else?
Oh, yeah, GREECE VOTES ON AUSTERITY MEASURES, the most important thing to happen to the world until Thursday, when they vote again.
Tomorrow's Tape

Como los bancos Chinos rompen las reglas

Las deudas del sombrio sistema bancario en China son desconocidas y descontroladas.

Los gobierno locales no estan escuchando a lso reguladores. Ellos se las arreglan para seguir dando prestamos a los negocios muchas veces fuera del canal oficial de prestamos. Esta nueva formacion de capital esta haciendo dudar del control que ejerce Beijin sobre el sistema financiero y tambien acerca de su habilidad para reducir la inflacion y controlar el mercado de bienes raices.

How China's Banks Break the Rules
The liabilities of the shadow banking system are unknown and uncontrolled.

By ANDREW COLLIER
In October, I sat down in Nanjing with a senior banker for one of China's "Big Four" state banks. I asked him about the new regulations just put in place by Beijing to restrain the growth in lending. "There are ways around these rules," he said.

Despite a consistent crackdown on bank lending by senior officials in Beijing, it's not clear that local governments are listening. A two-week tour this month through Fuzhou, Shanghai, Beijing and Chengdu highlights the extent to which local banks and governments are devising new and clever ways to supply money to capital-starved businesses without going through official channels. These new sources of capital raise doubts about Beijing's control over the financial system, as well as its ability to reduce inflation and forestall a crash in the property market.

One property developer in Fujian Province explained his method for raising capital. To build a nearly two billion yuan ($308 million) building, he has raised one billion yuan through pre-sales of apartments, but he is still short about 800 million yuan to complete construction. Banks won't lend to this sector owing to recent Beijing efforts to cool the property market. Instead, the developer is looking for an innovative source of capital: pledges of future personal mortgage loans as collateral, a collateral that doesn't yet exist. Although this type of financing is unusual and the details aren't completely clear, the developer requires future residential buyers to purchase their mortgages through the bank that provides the developer a loan.

Banks in several provinces have found another way to circumvent the rules. Two years ago, the banks started packaging project loans, often for new property developments, and selling them to wealthy investors as investment trusts. Despite high interest rates of 12% to 20%, there was demand among the borrowers due to a shortage of capital. However, the China Banking Regulatory Authority (CBRC) got wind of this tactic and banned it last year. To get around this, the local bank branches have begun to arrange "meetings" between their corporate borrowers and their high net-worth clients, where the lenders put together the same loan packages. The bank provides "implicit" support for the loan, but it never shows up on the books.

Local banks and governments are devising new and clever ways to circumvent the official channels.
.A truck distributor on China's coast described another tactic. The distributor's contracts contain a clause that requires the distributor's supplier of trucks to "help" the distributor unload unsold trucks. Rarely invoked in good times, this is a form of lending guarantee that could come back to haunt the supplier in bad times.

The local governments themselves are getting creative, too. Since they officially can't issue bonds, they have created "platform" companies as investment vehicles, often using land as capital. But the central authorities, through the People's Bank of China (PBOC) and the CBRC, have put a stop to the growth of these trusts. So the local governments are turning to nonbank sources of capital that can't be traced by the regulators—usually state-owned firms.

"The local government can't inject [funds] into the platforms, but they can sell state-owned shares or inject SOE [state-owned enterprises] capital," according to the assistant general manager at a branch of a state bank. The regulators can control lending to the corporations, but there's not much they can do once the corporations have the money.

All of these, and plenty of other tactics taken together, add up to a financial system that in some respects is running out of control. The more liabilities build up out of sight of regulators, the more serious the risk that a financial crisis could catch authorities by surprise. It's not a question of the competence of the authorities. Both the PBOC and CBRC are doing their best to manage the situation, and appear to have a pretty good idea of the contours of all this off-balance-sheet lending. But precise data are in short supply, a fact that would stymie even the best regulators.

This problem is twofold: It is very difficult to capture information about nonbank sources of lending, which comprise everything from corporate balance sheets to unrecognized promises for future profits. Second, the bank regulators control only the banks, but not the whole economy. They are in a tug of war both with China's planning board—the National Development and Reform Commission—and local governments, all of whom have a vested interest in spending as much money as possible.

Arguably, this shadow banking system has a positive side. It is teaching wealthy Chinese how to evaluate the costs and benefits of recycling their savings into profitable projects, instead of leaving them in low-yielding bank deposits that could be funneled into useless investments. One of my former interns said her father, a metals trader in Shanghai, constantly receives investment proposals for private projects and probably has a good sense of what is a good and bad investment.

But the downside is more frightening. There is a rampant growth of credit, uncontrolled or even incalculable by the country's top leadership. This means the financial system is generating liabilities that could easily turn sour and, come some kind of crisis, prove difficult to clean up. Does this remind anyone of America's subprime crisis?

Mr. Collier is an independent China analyst and the former president of the Bank of China International's U.S. office.

El Hang Seng +0.53%

-20

admin escribió:Como los bancos Chinos rompen las reglas

Las deudas del sombrio sistema bancario en China son desconocidas y descontroladas.

Los gobierno locales no estan escuchando a lso reguladores. Ellos se las arreglan para seguir dando prestamos a los negocios muchas veces fuera del canal oficial de prestamos. Esta nueva formacion de capital esta haciendo dudar del control que ejerce Beijin sobre el sistema financiero y tambien acerca de su habilidad para reducir la inflacion y controlar el mercado de bienes raices.

....

Admin ¿a esto se refieren los analistas cuando hablan de la burbuja china que tarde o temprano tiene que estallar?

Efectivamente, el problema el China es multilateral, son los creditos, es la burbuja de los precios de las casas, es la represion social que brota por todo China y no se informa, ese pais esta hirviendo, algo malo se esta cocinando. Hay que estar alertas que cualquier dia explota, si no se toman mas medidas correctivas.

El gran problema en China, es que si ese pais no crece al 9% al anio, las masas pobres se levantan y podrian producir la revolucion mas grande de la historia, por eso el gobierno se desespera para seguir haciendo crecer la economia, pero el problema de la devaluacion de la moneda permanente, la inflacion y la falta de libertad son problemas muy serios.

Los Griegos siguen manifestando contra las medidas de austeridad y se estan enfrentando a la policia una vez mas.

Los futures del Dow Jones estan 64 puntos al alza.

El Asia cerro mixta

Au up 1,508, Ag, up, futures cu up 4.15

Oil up 94

Europa al alza.

Yields up 3.05%

El voto en Grecia ocurrira en cualquier momento esta maniana.