LATIN AMERICA NEWSAPRIL 10, 2011, 7:28 P.M. ET
Leftist Set to Take Lead in First Round of Peruvian Vote
By MATT MOFFETT
LIMA, Peru—A left-leaning former army officer seemed set to capture the most votes in Peru's first-round presidential election Sunday, while three candidates seen as more business-friendly scrambled for second place and a slot in the runoff.
Ollanta Humala, whose populist proposals worry investors in this booming economy, was expected to finish first with a little over 25% of the vote, according to pre-election polls, though he seemed far short of the majority needed to win the election outright.
Behind him, three candidates—Keiko Fujimori, the daughter of a jailed former president; Pedro Pablo Kuczynski, a former investment banker and prime minister; and Alejandro Toledo, a Stanford University-trained ex-president—were all within striking distance of second place, polls showed.
The two top vote-getters will compete in a runoff June 5.
On Sunday afternoon, exit polls, which can be hit or miss in Peru, showed Mr. Humala as the top finisher with a little more than 30% of the vote, with Ms. Fujimori in second place with just over 20%. The polls showed Mr. Kuczynski close behind Ms. Fujimori, and analysts said a more definitive picture would emerge after a quick-count poll was released late Sunday.
The rise of Mr. Humala, 48 years old, who criticizes some trade treaties Peru has recently signed and promises higher salaries and pensions, has raised concerns in Peruvian financial markets. Investors fear Mr. Humala might reverse the market-oriented policies that have helped turn Peru into one of the world's fastest-growing economies. Over the past six years, the economy has expanded at an average annual rate of 7%.
Some 19 million Peruvians were expected to cast votes, and the polling was proceeding with calm on Sunday.
Earlier in the weekend, there had been accusations of last-minute dirty tricks. A falsified copy of a local newspaper website was being circulated on-line featuring a spurious article announcing that Mr. Toledo was withdrawing from the race and throwing his support to Mr. Kuczynski. Mr. Kuczynski's campaign disavowed any involvement with the hoax, and Mr. Toledo said he has no intention of quitting. Mr. Toledo has been losing support in recent weeks and Mr. Kuczynski has been rising in the polls.
The campaign has been a sloppy affair, in which the mainstream candidates most popular with investors and foreign diplomats have stumbled, opening the door for Mr. Humala and Ms. Fujimori.
Luis Castañeda, the technocratic former mayor of Lima, was an early favorite. But Mr. Castañeda, nicknamed "the mute" in the local media for his lethargic style, was hurt by a scandal involving allegations that a running mate paid to be on his ticket. Mr. Toledo, president from 2001 to 2006, then grabbed the lead in opinion polls for a time. But his campaign ran off track after he broached the idea of legalizing abortion and drug use. The fight for the centrist vote has been further muddled by the recent rise of Mr. Kuczynski, a favorite on Wall Street.
While centrists have cannibalized each other's support, Mr. Humala and Ms. Fujimori have solidified their positions in opinion polls. Peruvian Nobel prize-winning novelist Mario Vargas Llosa, a conservative, dubbed a hypothetical runoff between the two as comparable to "choosing between AIDS and terminal cancer."
While Mr. Humala's economic policies set off alarm bells, worries over Ms. Fujimori stem from her link with her father, whose government was known for authoritarianism and corruption. In 2009, Mr. Fujimori was sentenced to 25 years in prison for his involvement in two military massacres during a conflict with guerrillas in the 1990s.
Ms. Fujimori has pledged to maintain Peru's current economic policies and to fight corruption.
—Robert Kozak contributed to this article.
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Elecciones Presidenciales
Re: Elecciones Presidenciales
por admin » Dom Abr 10, 2011 6:40 pm
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Re: Elecciones Presidenciales
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Humala to Win First Round of Peru Vote, Tie for Runoff Spot, Survey Says
By John Quigley - Apr 10, 2011 5:20 PM ET
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Peruvian opposition candidate Ollanta Humala will win the first round of the nation’s presidential elections with 31.6 percent, though likely failed to obtain the majority of votes needed to avoid a June runoff against his nearest rival, according to an Ipsos Apoyo exit poll.
The race for second place was too close to call, with Congresswoman Keiko Fujimori expected to win 21.4 percent of the vote compared with 19.2 percent for former Finance Minister Pedro Pablo Kuczynski and 16.1 percent for former President Alejandro Toledo, according to the nationwide poll, whose margin of error is three percentage points.
A candidate needs half of ballots cast to avoid a June 5 runoff against the second-place finisher. Official results will be provided after 6 p.m. local time (7 p.m. New York).
Humala, a one-time ally of Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez, lost the presidency to Alan Garcia by 5 percentage points in 2006. The Andean nation’s stocks and bonds tumbled as he surged from fourth into first place in opinion polls over the past month, overtaking Fujimori, Kuczynski and Toledo.
Humala, 48, has pledged to renegotiate a free trade agreement with the U.S. signed by Garcia and raise royalty fees on mining and gas production to boost social spending. While downplaying his ties to Chavez and muting the anti-capitalist rhetoric used in 2006, Humala’s campaign platform proposes increasing state control of the economy and drawing up a new constitution.
“A Humala presidency could strengthen the populist axis in South America or he could join the more liberal, modern left,” said Julio Carrion, professor of Latin American politics at the University of Delaware in Newark. “He’s an unknown quantity.”
Garcia’s Endorsement
Kuczynski may have gotten a late boost from an endorsement April 8 by Garcia’s APRA party. An adviser to New York-based fund manager Rohatyn Group, the 72-year-old Kuczynski twice served as finance minister during Toledo’s 2001 to 2006 presidency.
Garcia, 61, whose five-year mandate expires July 28, is banned by Peru’s constitution from seeking re-election. His party’s candidate, former Finance Minister Mercedes Araoz, quit the race in January.
Market Jitters
Demand for Peru’s stocks, bonds and currency fell as Humala’s advance in the polls sparked concern that, if elected, he’d scare away foreign investment that has fueled the fastest growth in Latin America over the past five years.
The cost of insuring Peru’s debt against default rose to its highest since 2009 last week on concern a Humala presidency would jeopardize $50 billion of mining, energy and infrastructure investment that the government expects will fuel 6.5 percent growth over the next five years. Peru, the world’s second-largest producer of copper and No. 1 in silver, grew 8.8 percent last year.
Peru’s sol has declined 1.1 percent against the U.S. dollar since March 20, when Humala began gaining in the polls, making it the worst performer among 25 emerging-market currencies tracked by Bloomberg. The Lima General Index has fallen 3.4 percent in dollar terms during the past month, the fifth-worst performance among 90 primary stock indexes tracked by Bloomberg.
“Ours is a message of inclusion,” Humala told reporters today outside his home in eastern Lima, after casting his vote. “The electoral process is a celebration of democracy. It’s not about confrontation and polarization. Once the president has been elected, we’ll all need to work together.”
Fujimori, Toledo
Under Garcia, Peru created 2.5 million jobs and had its first-ever investment-grade ratings from Moody’s Investors Service, Standard & Poor’s and Fitch Ratings. A third of Peruvians still live in poverty, most of them in the Andean highlands where support for Humala is strongest.
Fujimori, Toledo and Kuczynski support Garcia’s policies of promoting free trade and foreign investment.
Fujimori, 35, is the daughter of jailed former president Alberto Fujimori, who her supporters credit with laying the foundations of Peru’s economic boom. Like Humala, her support is strongest in the Andean highlands where nostalgia runs high for her father’s role stabilizing the economy in the 1990s and defeating a Marxist insurgency. The mother-of-two was elected to Congress in 2006 with more votes than any other candidate.
Toledo, 65, was Peru’s first elected president of indigenous descent. A former shoe-shiner, he rose out of poverty to obtain a doctorate in the economics of human resources from Stanford University near Palo Alto, California, and has worked for the World Bank, the United Nations and the International Labor Organization.
Early Frontrunner
Toledo, who had been the early frontrunner, has seen support for his candidacy fade since February and last week sought to forge an alliance with Kuczynski and Castaneda to thwart Humala. They turned him down. Still, he’s the only leading candidate favored to defeat Humala in a runoff scenario, by four percentage points, according to an April 3 Ipsos poll.
“We’ve had almost 10 years of persistent and impressive economic growth,” Toledo told reporters in Lima April 8. “To truncate that would be absolutely damaging. If Ollanta Humala is elected, you will see a run on the markets.”
Whoever is elected president may face gridlock in Congress. Humala’s Nationalist Party may win about 41 of the 130 seats in Peru’s unicameral legislature, compared with 35 for Fujimori’s “2011 Force” and 22 for Toledo’s “Possible Peru” movement, according to today's exit poll by Ipsos.
Humala had an advantage of between 7 and 9 percentage points over Fujimori in polls conducted last week by Lima-based researchers Datum Internacional and CPI. Kuczynski and Toledo came in third and fourth respectively, both polls showed.
“The electorate is behaving in a really erratic way, with voters moving from Toledo and Fujimori to Humala,” said Alvaro Vargas Llosa, a senior fellow at the Independent Institute in Washington. “We’ve never had such a fluid situation. You can’t take anything for granted in the second round.”
To contact the reporter on this story: John Quigley in Lima at jquigley8@bloomberg.net
To contact the editor responsible for this story: Joshua Goodman at jgoodman19@bloomberg.net
By John Quigley - Apr 10, 2011 5:20 PM ET
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Peruvian opposition candidate Ollanta Humala will win the first round of the nation’s presidential elections with 31.6 percent, though likely failed to obtain the majority of votes needed to avoid a June runoff against his nearest rival, according to an Ipsos Apoyo exit poll.
The race for second place was too close to call, with Congresswoman Keiko Fujimori expected to win 21.4 percent of the vote compared with 19.2 percent for former Finance Minister Pedro Pablo Kuczynski and 16.1 percent for former President Alejandro Toledo, according to the nationwide poll, whose margin of error is three percentage points.
A candidate needs half of ballots cast to avoid a June 5 runoff against the second-place finisher. Official results will be provided after 6 p.m. local time (7 p.m. New York).
Humala, a one-time ally of Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez, lost the presidency to Alan Garcia by 5 percentage points in 2006. The Andean nation’s stocks and bonds tumbled as he surged from fourth into first place in opinion polls over the past month, overtaking Fujimori, Kuczynski and Toledo.
Humala, 48, has pledged to renegotiate a free trade agreement with the U.S. signed by Garcia and raise royalty fees on mining and gas production to boost social spending. While downplaying his ties to Chavez and muting the anti-capitalist rhetoric used in 2006, Humala’s campaign platform proposes increasing state control of the economy and drawing up a new constitution.
“A Humala presidency could strengthen the populist axis in South America or he could join the more liberal, modern left,” said Julio Carrion, professor of Latin American politics at the University of Delaware in Newark. “He’s an unknown quantity.”
Garcia’s Endorsement
Kuczynski may have gotten a late boost from an endorsement April 8 by Garcia’s APRA party. An adviser to New York-based fund manager Rohatyn Group, the 72-year-old Kuczynski twice served as finance minister during Toledo’s 2001 to 2006 presidency.
Garcia, 61, whose five-year mandate expires July 28, is banned by Peru’s constitution from seeking re-election. His party’s candidate, former Finance Minister Mercedes Araoz, quit the race in January.
Market Jitters
Demand for Peru’s stocks, bonds and currency fell as Humala’s advance in the polls sparked concern that, if elected, he’d scare away foreign investment that has fueled the fastest growth in Latin America over the past five years.
The cost of insuring Peru’s debt against default rose to its highest since 2009 last week on concern a Humala presidency would jeopardize $50 billion of mining, energy and infrastructure investment that the government expects will fuel 6.5 percent growth over the next five years. Peru, the world’s second-largest producer of copper and No. 1 in silver, grew 8.8 percent last year.
Peru’s sol has declined 1.1 percent against the U.S. dollar since March 20, when Humala began gaining in the polls, making it the worst performer among 25 emerging-market currencies tracked by Bloomberg. The Lima General Index has fallen 3.4 percent in dollar terms during the past month, the fifth-worst performance among 90 primary stock indexes tracked by Bloomberg.
“Ours is a message of inclusion,” Humala told reporters today outside his home in eastern Lima, after casting his vote. “The electoral process is a celebration of democracy. It’s not about confrontation and polarization. Once the president has been elected, we’ll all need to work together.”
Fujimori, Toledo
Under Garcia, Peru created 2.5 million jobs and had its first-ever investment-grade ratings from Moody’s Investors Service, Standard & Poor’s and Fitch Ratings. A third of Peruvians still live in poverty, most of them in the Andean highlands where support for Humala is strongest.
Fujimori, Toledo and Kuczynski support Garcia’s policies of promoting free trade and foreign investment.
Fujimori, 35, is the daughter of jailed former president Alberto Fujimori, who her supporters credit with laying the foundations of Peru’s economic boom. Like Humala, her support is strongest in the Andean highlands where nostalgia runs high for her father’s role stabilizing the economy in the 1990s and defeating a Marxist insurgency. The mother-of-two was elected to Congress in 2006 with more votes than any other candidate.
Toledo, 65, was Peru’s first elected president of indigenous descent. A former shoe-shiner, he rose out of poverty to obtain a doctorate in the economics of human resources from Stanford University near Palo Alto, California, and has worked for the World Bank, the United Nations and the International Labor Organization.
Early Frontrunner
Toledo, who had been the early frontrunner, has seen support for his candidacy fade since February and last week sought to forge an alliance with Kuczynski and Castaneda to thwart Humala. They turned him down. Still, he’s the only leading candidate favored to defeat Humala in a runoff scenario, by four percentage points, according to an April 3 Ipsos poll.
“We’ve had almost 10 years of persistent and impressive economic growth,” Toledo told reporters in Lima April 8. “To truncate that would be absolutely damaging. If Ollanta Humala is elected, you will see a run on the markets.”
Whoever is elected president may face gridlock in Congress. Humala’s Nationalist Party may win about 41 of the 130 seats in Peru’s unicameral legislature, compared with 35 for Fujimori’s “2011 Force” and 22 for Toledo’s “Possible Peru” movement, according to today's exit poll by Ipsos.
Humala had an advantage of between 7 and 9 percentage points over Fujimori in polls conducted last week by Lima-based researchers Datum Internacional and CPI. Kuczynski and Toledo came in third and fourth respectively, both polls showed.
“The electorate is behaving in a really erratic way, with voters moving from Toledo and Fujimori to Humala,” said Alvaro Vargas Llosa, a senior fellow at the Independent Institute in Washington. “We’ve never had such a fluid situation. You can’t take anything for granted in the second round.”
To contact the reporter on this story: John Quigley in Lima at jquigley8@bloomberg.net
To contact the editor responsible for this story: Joshua Goodman at jgoodman19@bloomberg.net
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Re: Elecciones Presidenciales
por admin » Dom Abr 10, 2011 7:06 pm
Domingo, 10 de Abril del 2011 | 4:01 pm hrs
CPI: Ollanta Humala y Keiko Fujimori pasan a segunda vuelta
Líder nacionalista alcanzó el 33% de la preferencia electoral a nivel nacional, seguido por Keiko Fujimori con 22%. Kuczynski se ubica muy cerca con 19%, mientras que Toledo alcanza el cuarto lugar con 15.3% y Luis Castañeda le sigue con 9.5%, según resultados a boca de urna.
FOTOS: Ollanta empezó jornada haciendo footing FOTOS: Lección de civismo: Anciano de 101 años vota pese a exoneración FOTOS: Castañeda comparte desayuno con madres FOTOS: Vea cómo los peruanos en el exterior ejercen su derecho a voto
El líder de Gana Perú, Ollanta Humala, y la lideresa del partido Fuerza 2011, Keiko Sofía Fujimori, avanzaron a la segunda vuelta electoral, según registra CPI en sus resultados a boca de urna a nivel nacional.
El nacionalista Humala Tasso consiguió el 33% de los votos a nivel nacional, según CPI, mientras que Fujimori sumó 22%.
En ese sentido y tras una reñida competencia, los primeros resultados arrojaron que los dos candidatos se volverán a encontrar en la segunda vuelta electoral a disputarse en junio próximo.
En el tercer puesto, muy cerca de Fujimori Higuchi, se ubica Pedro Pablo Kuczynski de Alianza para el Gran Cambio con 19%, mientras que en el cuarto lugar se posicionó el ex presidente Alejandro Toledo, de Perú Posible, con el 15.3% de las preferencias electorales. Más atrás, con un 9.5% de los votos, aparece el candidato Luis Castañeda Lossio del partido Solidaridad Nacional.
Otros partidos
Bastante distanciados de los candidatos mencionados, aparecen los partidos “Adelante” con el 0.4% de preferencia, “Fonavistas del Perú” con 0.4%, “Despertar Nacional” con el 0.2%, “Justicia, Tecnología y Ecología” con el 0.1% y “Fuerza Nacional” con el 0.1% de los votos.
CPI: Ollanta Humala y Keiko Fujimori pasan a segunda vuelta
Líder nacionalista alcanzó el 33% de la preferencia electoral a nivel nacional, seguido por Keiko Fujimori con 22%. Kuczynski se ubica muy cerca con 19%, mientras que Toledo alcanza el cuarto lugar con 15.3% y Luis Castañeda le sigue con 9.5%, según resultados a boca de urna.
FOTOS: Ollanta empezó jornada haciendo footing FOTOS: Lección de civismo: Anciano de 101 años vota pese a exoneración FOTOS: Castañeda comparte desayuno con madres FOTOS: Vea cómo los peruanos en el exterior ejercen su derecho a voto
El líder de Gana Perú, Ollanta Humala, y la lideresa del partido Fuerza 2011, Keiko Sofía Fujimori, avanzaron a la segunda vuelta electoral, según registra CPI en sus resultados a boca de urna a nivel nacional.
El nacionalista Humala Tasso consiguió el 33% de los votos a nivel nacional, según CPI, mientras que Fujimori sumó 22%.
En ese sentido y tras una reñida competencia, los primeros resultados arrojaron que los dos candidatos se volverán a encontrar en la segunda vuelta electoral a disputarse en junio próximo.
En el tercer puesto, muy cerca de Fujimori Higuchi, se ubica Pedro Pablo Kuczynski de Alianza para el Gran Cambio con 19%, mientras que en el cuarto lugar se posicionó el ex presidente Alejandro Toledo, de Perú Posible, con el 15.3% de las preferencias electorales. Más atrás, con un 9.5% de los votos, aparece el candidato Luis Castañeda Lossio del partido Solidaridad Nacional.
Otros partidos
Bastante distanciados de los candidatos mencionados, aparecen los partidos “Adelante” con el 0.4% de preferencia, “Fonavistas del Perú” con 0.4%, “Despertar Nacional” con el 0.2%, “Justicia, Tecnología y Ecología” con el 0.1% y “Fuerza Nacional” con el 0.1% de los votos.
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Re: Elecciones Presidenciales
por admin » Dom Abr 10, 2011 7:32 pm
CONTEO RÁPIDO al 69,6%: Ollanta Humala 31,5%, Keiko Fujimori 23,7%, Pedro Pablo Kuczynski 18,9%
Estos resultados corresponden al conteo rápido realizado por la encuestadora Ipsos Apoyo. Según estas cifras preliminares, Fujimori y PPK pelean un cupo a la segunda vuelta
Domingo 10 de abril de 2011 - 06:45 pm 10 comentarios
El candidato de Gana Perú, Ollanta Humala Tasso, se impuso en las elecciones generales al sumar 31,5%, seguido por la candidata de Fuerza 2011, Keiko Fujimori con 23,7%, y el de Alianza por el Gran Cambio, Pedro Pablo Kuczynski, con 18,9%.
La misma Ipsos Apoyo le dio a Alejandro Toledo un 15,5% y a Luis Castañeda 9,7%. Otros alcanzaron 0,7%.
De esta manera, la segunda vuelta electoral, que se disputará el próximo 5 de junio, será entre Ollanta Humala y Keiko Fujimori.
Como se recuerda, la ONPE recién publicará el primer reporte de resultados oficiales a partir de las 8 p.m.
Tags : Ipsos Apoyo, Presidenciales 2011, Elecciones presidenciales, Alejandro Toledo, Keiko Fujimori, Ollanta Humala, Pedro Pablo Kuczynski, PPK
Estos resultados corresponden al conteo rápido realizado por la encuestadora Ipsos Apoyo. Según estas cifras preliminares, Fujimori y PPK pelean un cupo a la segunda vuelta
Domingo 10 de abril de 2011 - 06:45 pm 10 comentarios
El candidato de Gana Perú, Ollanta Humala Tasso, se impuso en las elecciones generales al sumar 31,5%, seguido por la candidata de Fuerza 2011, Keiko Fujimori con 23,7%, y el de Alianza por el Gran Cambio, Pedro Pablo Kuczynski, con 18,9%.
La misma Ipsos Apoyo le dio a Alejandro Toledo un 15,5% y a Luis Castañeda 9,7%. Otros alcanzaron 0,7%.
De esta manera, la segunda vuelta electoral, que se disputará el próximo 5 de junio, será entre Ollanta Humala y Keiko Fujimori.
Como se recuerda, la ONPE recién publicará el primer reporte de resultados oficiales a partir de las 8 p.m.
Tags : Ipsos Apoyo, Presidenciales 2011, Elecciones presidenciales, Alejandro Toledo, Keiko Fujimori, Ollanta Humala, Pedro Pablo Kuczynski, PPK
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Re: Elecciones Presidenciales
por Victor VE » Dom Abr 10, 2011 7:59 pm
CONTEO RÁPIDO al 80,1%: Humala 31,6%, Fujimori 23,0%, PPK 19,1%
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Re: Elecciones Presidenciales
por Victor VE » Dom Abr 10, 2011 8:00 pm
Vamos Min-Pao con ojos!!! tu puedes!!! 
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Re: Elecciones Presidenciales
por Victor VE » Dom Abr 10, 2011 8:08 pm
@elcomercio: #ONPE Resultados oficiales al 18,228: @Ollanta_HumalaT 26,554 @ppkamigo 24,486 @KeikoFujimori 21,091
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Re: Elecciones Presidenciales
por Victor VE » Dom Abr 10, 2011 8:15 pm
Pinazo tiene mas de 1800 votos al 18% !!!!
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Re: Elecciones Presidenciales
por Victor VE » Dom Abr 10, 2011 9:49 pm
.
Última edición por Victor VE el Lun Abr 11, 2011 12:17 am, editado 1 vez en total
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Re: Elecciones Presidenciales
por Victor VE » Dom Abr 10, 2011 9:52 pm
Estuve alucinando, si la cosa se pone fea y Ollanta se dispara... Alan indulta a Alberto Fujimori y este último sale a hacer campaña con Keiko a provincias. Quién gana? Alan es capaz de todo, viejo zorro.
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Re: Elecciones Presidenciales
por admin » Dom Abr 10, 2011 9:56 pm
Victor que quieres decir que Kenyi es gay? Eso que pones no lo entiendo, son realmente amigos de Kenyi o solo es un montaje para perjudicarlo. Tienes algun problema contra los gays, aca hay muchos congresistas de ambos partidos que son gays y a nadie se le ocurre burlarse de ellos por ese motivo. Deberia darte verguenza!!!
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Re: Elecciones Presidenciales
por Victor VE » Dom Abr 10, 2011 10:00 pm
A ver, si no sabes Kenyi tiene un video en donde está haciendo cosas un poquito raras con su perro "Puñete", asi que como mínimo se le podria achacar de zoofílico segun eso, claro que él lo niega. Lo de gay lo imitan aca en los programas de la televisión, pero por algo será...
Yo no tengo ningun problema con los gays. El video es en son de broma que alguien corrió por tuiter.
No te ases admin, tambien voy a poner el video de Kenji con Puñete para que no digas que soy homófico.
Yo no tengo ningun problema con los gays. El video es en son de broma que alguien corrió por tuiter.
No te ases admin, tambien voy a poner el video de Kenji con Puñete para que no digas que soy homófico.
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Re: Elecciones Presidenciales
por Victor VE » Dom Abr 10, 2011 10:03 pm
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Re: Elecciones Presidenciales
por Victor VE » Dom Abr 10, 2011 10:19 pm
ONPE al 43%: Ollanta 26.994%, PPK 23.607% y Fujimori 21.848%
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Re: Elecciones Presidenciales
por JuanL » Dom Abr 10, 2011 10:38 pm
Faltan los votos de las zonas rurales...no creo que quede asi.
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Volver a MAS ACTIVAS EN LA BVL, Actos de corrupcion de Humala
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