Viernes 15/05/15 manufactura en New York

[Fenix]

El boom del esquisto se parece mucho a la burbuja de las punto com

Viernes, 15 de Mayo del 2015 - 12:49:00 CET

A principios de esta semana, el fundador de Greenlight Capital, David Einhorn, salió a los medios en contra de la industria del petróleo de esquisto.

En una presentación el lunes, Einhorn dijo, "Nosotros [Greenlight] estamos en contra del fracking porque la inversión puede contaminar los retornos".

Básicamente, las empresas petroleras gastan demasiado dinero en gastos de capital, y con los precios bajos del petróleo no están viendo los beneficios que necesitan para justificar ese gasto.

Escribiendo en el Financial Times el miércoles, Ed Crooks cree que Einhorn está en gran medida en lo cierto:

Su andanada tenía tres elementos principales. En primer lugar, criticó las ganancias publicadas por las empresas petroleras, especialmente las medidas como el EBITDAX, que "básicamente es sinónimo de ganancias antes de un montón de cosas".


En segundo lugar, centrándose en el cash como una guía más fiable a la verdadera salud de la industria, destacó cómo los grandes productores de esquisto habían gastado desde 2006 80.000 millones de dólares más en comprar y desarrollar reservas que lo que han ingresado por venta de petróleo. Se han mantenido en el negocio sólo por la llegada constante de capitales.

En tercer lugar, observó que los inversores que creen que los precios del petróleo van a subir harían mejor en invertir en la materia prima que en las acciones de los productores de esquisto.


S&P500: Sentimiento alcista AAI: sigue marcando zona rebote o suelo
Viernes, 15 de Mayo del 2015 - 13:20
Como podemos comprobar, las encuestas de sentimiento alcista en USA (AAI) se mantienen en cotas del 27% de alcistas.

Esto siempre ha venido de la mano de niveles del S&P500 desde donde o bien se experimenta un rebote de importancia, o se marcan zonas de suelo.

Eduardo Faus
Original de Renta 4 Banco

[Fenix]

PIB Ucrania cae un 17,6% interanual en el primer trimestre
Viernes, 15 de Mayo del 2015 - 13:39 CET


Banco Santander y BBVA dentro del contexto del QE
por Ismael de la Cruz •Hace 11 horas

El programa QE favorece al sector bancario, entre otras cosas porque incrementa el valor de los activos inmobiliarios, aunque en realidad no solo beneficia al sector bancario, también al asegurador, como Mapfre. De todas formas, como ya advirtió la agencia de calificación crediticia Fitch, es improbable que el programa de compra de deuda pública y privada del Banco Central Europeo incremente sustancialmente los beneficios de los bancos de la eurozona o fomente el crédito de forma inmediata.

Sí es cierto que algunos bancos podrán generar más ingresos gracias a que la política acomodaticia del BCE puede reducir los diferenciales de los bonos, pero dichas ganancias ya tendrían poco recorrido.

El tema de abrir el grifo del crédito es bastante difícil que se vaya a producir, sobre todo en los países periféricos, entre otras razones porque la mayoría de las entidades bancarias aún están fortaleciendo sus balances y reduciendo los activos morosos.

¿Y qué repercusión tiene el QE, qué se busca con ello? Varias cuestiones al respecto:

* Gran parte de la deuda de los países está en poder de los bancos de la eurozona, de manera que el BCE pretende que den más créditos. Al comprar masivamente bonos soberanos, los precios suben y la rentabilidad baja. De todas formas, eso de que vaya a haber más créditos es algo que no termina de cuadrar, entre otras razones porque el problema radica en la base de la demanda y no en la liquidez propiamente dicha.

* Al ser una fuerte inyección de liquidez para el mercado, el euro se deprecia, hecho que provoca que las exportaciones europeas sean más competitivas.

* Al estimularse el consumo (en su doble vertiente, externa e interna), se logra luchar contra la deflación o caída generalizada de los precios.

* El Euribor, que es el tipo de interés al que se prestan dinero los bancos entre sí, cae, siendo una buena noticia para los titulares de un préstamo hipotecario. De hecho, el Euribor a 3 meses se encuentra por primera vez en la historia en negativo.

Imagen

El índice sectorial bancario europeo mantiene su tendencia principal alcista. Pueden observar en el gráfico cómo, tras varios intentos producidos durante dos semanas consecutivas, no ha podido superar la barrera o resistencia, hecho que le ha originado recortes.

También pueden ver en el gráfico cómo el primer nivel Fibonacci se ha encargado en reiteradas ocasiones de frenar las caídas y propiciar impulso al alza (octubre y diciembre del pasado año, así como enero y febrero del presente año).

Veamos algunas cuestiones a tener en cuenta de los dos principales bancos españoles:

- Banco Santander: es el primer banco de la zona euro por capitalización bursátil, una cota que hasta ahora solo había alcanzado Telefónica entre las empresas españolas.

En el 2014 logró un beneficio superior en un 39% al del año anterior y sigue consolidándose como uno de los referentes a nivel mundial. La diversificación geográfica es una de sus principales bazas, no en vano el 44% del beneficio proviene de Latinoamérica. Como punto negro, o mejor dicho, cuestión que le puede perjudicar, sería su exposición en Brasil.

Técnicamente hablando, el nivel clave que presenta por abajo son los 5,57 euros (incluso la extensión de 5,29 euros). Esto significaría que si el precio bajase hasta esta referencia podría ser una opción de cara a reincorporarse en esta compañía con vistas al medio-largo plazo.

Para volver a coger fuerza necesita romper por arriba los 7,06 euros y de esta manera estaría en disposición de ir a la resistencia de los 7,39-7,44 euros que sería el primer objetivo tras la rotura.

- BBVA: el resultado antes de impuestos en España el pasado ejercicio fue de pérdidas de 1.618 millones, siendo España y Portugal con 57 millones los únicos países. Acumula una buena revalorización y su buena diversificación geográfica avala sus títulos. También como punto positivo cabría destacar su exposición en México.

El objetivo de la subida se situaría para los próximos meses en los 10-10,10 euros. En el caso hipotético de que bajase a los 7,20 euros, podría ser interesante como enganche para subirse al tren en un horizonte de medio-largo plazo.

[Fenix]

La burbuja metálica, Oro y Plata
por Blog oportunidades en bolsa •Hace 10 horas

Desde las primeras publicaciones en la web hemos ido siguiendo los mercados del Oro y la Plata. También desde el principio hemos considerado que la tendencia se mantiene bajista y que ambos activos están cayendo tras la burbuja de precios que han vivido del año 2000 a 2011.

Por el momento, la tendencia sigue bajista y, mientras nada nos diga lo contrario, seguiremos considerando este escenario como el más válido y más probable.

Desde las primeras publicaciones en la web hemos ido siguiendo los mercados del Oro y la Plata. También desde el principio hemos considerado que la tendencia se mantiene bajista y que ambos activos están cayendo tras la burbuja de precios que han vivido del año 2000 a 2011.

Por el momento, la tendencia sigue bajista y, mientras nada nos diga lo contrario, seguiremos considerando este escenario como el más válido y más probable.



Producción industrial abril EE.UU. -0,3% vs -0,1% esperado
Viernes, 15 de Mayo del 2015 - 15:15
La producción industrial en EE.UU. cae en el mes de abril un 0,3% frente -0,1% esperado. La capacidad de utilización cae un 0,4% a 78,2% frente 78,3% esperado.

Dato negativo para el dólar y la renta variable.
PIB 1tr15 Rusia -1,9% interanual vs -2,6% esperado
Viernes, 15 de Mayo del 2015 - 15:08



El S&P 500 mantiene su clara sobrevaloración
Viernes, 15 de Mayo del 2015 - 15:48
Los índices de Wall Street mantienen sus ratios de valoración claramente por encima de su media histórica. En el caso del PER Shiller del S&P 500 cotiza en estos momentos a 27,42 frente une media de 16x.

En el caso del PER convencional cotiza a 20,73 frente 14,5 media histórica.


Global Trade Is "In The Doldrums", BofAML Says
Submitted by Tyler D.
05/15/2015 - 17:45

"Global trade of goods and services has been in the doldrums [and] if predominantly structural, EM economies should not count on meaningful demand boosts coming from above-trend growth in DM. With Fed rate hikes looming, a jammed trade channel means less growth offsets to the anticipated tightening in financial conditions."

[Fenix]

Índice confianza consumidora U. Michigan 88,6 frente 95,9 esperado
Viernes, 15 de Mayo del 2015 - 16:00 CET
El índice de sentimiento consumidor de la Universidad de Michigan en mayo se sitúa en 88,6, lo esperado por el mercado y frente 95,9 esperado y 95,9 anterior.

El subíndice de situación actual 99,8 frente 107,0 esperado
El subíndice de expectativas 81,5 frente 88,6 esperado.
Expectativas de inflación 2,9% frente 2,6% esperado.

Malos datos para el dólar y la renta variable.


Nokia: La caída se mantendrá siempre y cuando 6.67 sea resistencia
Viernes, 15 de Mayo del 2015 - 16:09
Tendencia a corto plazo: Nuestro punto de rotación se sitúa en 6.67.

Nuestra preferencia: la caída se mantiene siempre y cuando 6.67 sea resistencia.

Escenario alternativo: por encima de 6.67, objetivo 7.21 y 7.53.

En lo referente al análisis técnico, el índice de fuerza relativa (RSI) se encuentra por debajo de su zona de neutralidad de 50. El indicador de convergencia/divergencia de medias móviles (MACD) se sitúa por debajo de su línea de señal y es negativo.

Asimismo, El Subyacente se sitúa por debajo su media móvil de 20 y 50 días (se sitúa a 6.66 y 7.02 respectivamente).

Resistencias y soportes: 7.21 * 6.67 ** 6.46 - 5.48 5.17 ** 4.86 *

Tendencia a medio plazo: El Subyacente está inferior a su media móvil 100 dias (6.89). La distancia con respecto a ésta es de -11.1%. A la baja el nivel de soporte a observar se sitúa en 4.54, una resistencia importante se sitúa en 7.53.


Massively Levered Beta: Tepper Adds $1.3 Billion, Or 33% Of Long Equity AUM, In SPY, QQQ Calls
Submitted by Tyler D.
05/15/2015 - 17:18

While the market was topping out, Tepper was actively adding to his bullish exposure, but not in the form of many new stock positions, when in fact he partially unloaded 15 of his 38 positions, while adding 12 new positions. It was 2 of these new additions that were particularly notable: just like in early 2014, Tepper is once again back to index investing, having added a whopping $939 million in notional-equivalent SPY Calls, and $413 million in notional-equivalent QQQ Calls. In other words, Tepper is once again making a very levered beta bet that the market will resume climbing, and he can capture the upside through SPY and QQQ calls.

[Fenix]

Cómo convertirse en un trader de éxito en forex.
Claves para conseguirlo
por Con F de Forex •Hace 3 días

La vida a través de la negociación de forex puede lograrse a través de diferentes métodos que están mucho más que contrastados, pero no por ello es fácil de alcanzar. Los nuevos operadores de forex pueden utilizar las señales forex para negociar a través de los diferentes tipos:

* * señales generadas por las empresas o comerciantes profesionales,
* * señales generadas por su búsqueda
* * señales generadas por el análisis de algoritmos.

No todos los comerciantes son capaces de obtener ganancias usando la misma estrategia, por esta razón es muy importante que pruebe y haga un testeo de cada una de estas estrategias en un entorno de demostraciones Pruebe antes de aplicarlo usando una cuenta con dinero real.

El mercado forex es el mercado financiero ideal para quien quiere ganar mucho dinero en un corto periodo de tiempo. A diferencia de invertir en el mercado de valores, aquí es posible doblar, triplicar o incluso más veces el dinero que está invirtiendo. Esto es posible gracias al poder de apalancamiento y debido a la gran cantidad de inversores que hay negociando en este mercado financiero.

Imagen

Los interesados en el mercado forex pueden utilizar estas estrategias para alcanzar buenas rentabilidades y beneficios:

Las señales Forex generadas por empresas o profesionales – hay varios corredores de forex o empresas relacionadas con este mercado financiero, con profesionales con experiencia suficiente que crean diferentes señales de forex y se las envían a sus clientes. Estas señales son generadas por la combinación de diversos datos y cada empresa utiliza un método diferente.

Las señales generan por su búsqueda a través de su investigación personal, es posible encontrar signos mediante análisis técnico y análisis fundamental. El análisis técnico es el tipo de metodología comercial que utiliza el gráfico de vela. Es posible encontrar varias tendencias de precios a corto y largo plazo. Puesto que análisis fundamental ayuda al comerciante para identificar eventos de una estrategia a largo plazo.

Diario de trading – Es imprescindible si quiere hacer posible vivir del trading en el mercado de divisas. Esto te puede salvar todas las posiciones que tuvieron éxito o no, para luego analizar y saber qué puntos fallaron, mejorar y mantener su historial de ganancias. Este diario de trading le ayudará a tener un historial de sus posiciones, puede ser utilizado como una herramienta de planificación, es un método de verificación y un método para mejorar.

El trading de forex puede ser un trabajo muy rentable. Pero debe tener en cuenta que se trata de una profesión es imprescindible aprender antes de invertir.




Stock Indicator Suggests Big Move (Lower?) Coming
Submitted by Tyler D.05/15/2015 - 15:50

The signal hasn’t been unanimous in foretelling weak performance, but it has certainly been the norm over the past 65 years, and to a statistically significant degree. Thus, we would consider this another negative facing the stock market at the present time.

[Fenix]

Goldman Sachs baja su previsión sobre el PIB de EE.UU.
Viernes, 15 de Mayo del 2015 - 17:06 CET
Los analistas de Goldman Sachs bajan su previsión sobre el crecimiento del PIB de EE.UU. a -1,1% en el primer trimestre del año.

Para el segundo trimestre esperan un crecimiento del 2%


5 Things To Ponder: Reading While Waiting List
05/15/2015 16:35 -0400

Submitted by Lance Roberts via STA Wealth Management,

This past week has been much the same as the last couple of months - boring. It has been more interesting trying to count carpet fibers in my office than watching the markets.

However, there has been some excitement in domestic bond yields that have SURGED over the last couple of weeks. Well, as I discussed earlier this week, its a surge alright, you just need a magnifying glass to actually see it.

"The chart below is a 40-year history of the 10-year Treasury interest rate. The dashed red lines denote the long-term downtrend in interest rates."

Interest-Rates-Surge-051315

"The recent SURGE in interest rates is hardly noticeable when put into a long-term perspective. After rates dropped to their second lowest level in history of 1.68%, only exceeded by the "great debt ceiling default crisis of 2012" level of 1.46%, the recent bounce to 2.26% was expected"

There also has been the divergence in economic data, some good, but mostly not. This has been good for the stock market as "bad news" means the Federal Reserve has no reason to raise rates in the near future. This is particularly the case with first quarter's GDP printing negative and second quarter's falling below 1%.

This leaves investors in a precarious position of remaining invested as the financial markets levitate away from underlying economic realities. In fact, as recently pointed out by Tyler Durden at Zerohedge, the deviation of the markets from the economic data is one of the largest since the turn of the century.

zero-hedge-051415

For now, however, we wait for the market to decide its next action. Will be a resumption of the "bull run" as the vast majority expect or will the contrarian side of the markets finally prevail? I think we will have that answer very soon.

While we await that answer, I have compiled a this week's reading list to include a smattering of articles on everything from the markets, to investing, to the Fed to the economy.

1) Bond Rout Puts Bears On Wrong Side Of Fed by Simon Kennedy via Bloomberg Business

"Keeping monetary policy loose is still justified to economists at JPMorgan Chase & Co. They reckon global economic growth of 1.2 percent in the first quarter was the second weakest outside of a recession in the past 25 years and worldwide inflation of 0.4 percent was the lowest.

Torsten Slok, chief international economist at Deutsche Bank AG, told clients that "the QE trade is not over" and yields should soon reverse their rise once markets stabilize.


'What we have seen in markets over the past two weeks has been triggered by fear and not by a change in the outlook for economic fundamentals,' said Slok. 'I continue to see U.S. rates under downward pressure as a result of money printing abroad.'"

Read Also: 4 Charts Why The Fed Not Likely To Raise Rates This Year via Streettalklive


2) High Share of Part-Time Workers Explain Weak Wage Growth by Kathleen Madigan via WSJ

"One possible explanation is that more companies have restructured their staffing to focus on part-time workers. Because of that, there is slightly more slack in the labor markets than the jobless rate indicates. And these part-timers have less bargaining power to negotiate higher wages.


To be sure, most of the jobs created in this expansion (as reported in the household survey) are full-time positions. But part-time spots, less than 35 hours a week, now account for a larger share of total employment than they did before the recession. That's true for total part-time workers and for part-time workers who would prefer a full-time position."

Employment-Slack

Read Also: Riddle Me This: Difference Between Headlines & Reality by Streettalklive


3) The Federal Reserve's Asset Bubble Machine by Ruchir Sharma via WSJ Opinion

"At Morgan Stanley Investment Management, we have analyzed data going back two centuries and found that until the past decade no major central bank had ever before set short-term interest rates at zero, even in periods of deflation.


To critics who warn that pumping trillions of dollars into the economy in a short period is bound to drive up inflation, today's central bankers point to stagnant consumer prices and say, 'Look, Ma, no inflation.' But this ignores the fact that when money is nominally free, strange things happen, and today record-low rates are fueling an unprecedented bout of inflation across asset prices."

Read Also: What Equity Market Bubble by Scott Grannis via Califia Beach Pundit


4) Even Among The Richest, Fortunes Diverge by Annie Lowrey via NY Times

"It found that in 2012, the average household in the bottom 90 percent of the income distribution earned about $30,997. For the average household in the top 1 percent, the figure is $1,264,065, and for the top 0.1 percent, about $6,373,782.



Put another way, our 0.1 percent household made about 206 times, and our 1 percent household about 41 times, what our average household did. That gap has yawned over time. In 1990, for instance, the same multiples were 87 and 21. In 1980, they were 47 and 14."

Super-Rich-vs-Rich

Read Also: Consumer Recession Arrives As Retail Sales Fail To Emerge by Jeffrey Snider via Alhambra Partners

Read Also: How We Will Cope With Another Downturn by Buttonwood via The Economist


5) The Cardinal Sin - Missing Out by Charlie Bilello via Pension Partners

(Note: This could also be titled: Why you will be hammered during the next downturn)

'The greatest fear in the investment management industry is not what one might expect. It is not losing money but the fear of not making enough money when the market is moving relentlessly higher. This "fear of missing out" strikes terror into the heart of portfolio managers as clients will simply not tolerate it; it is the cardinal sin of the business.


The thinking was explained to me as follows. Lose money when the markets are going down and everyone else is suffering and you'll be just fine. But fail to capture maximum upside during a raging bull market and you'll soon be out of a job."

Read Also: Bulls Should Not Expect Help From The Fed by Cam Hui via Humble Student Of The Markets
OTHER INTERESTING STUFF

A Dozen Things I Learned From Julian Robertson About Investing via 25iq

"A colleague of Robertson once said: 'When he is convinced that he is right, Julian bets the farm.' George Soros and Stanley Druckenmiller are similar. Big mispriced bets don't appear very often and when they do people like Julian Robertson bet big. This is not what he has called a 'gun slinging' approach, but rather a patient approach which seeks bets with odds that are substantially in his favor. Research and critical analysis are critical for Julian Robertson. Being patient, disciplined and yet aggressive is a rare combination and Robertson has proven he has each of these qualities."

What Peter Schiff Said To Ben Bernanke by Tyler Durden via ZeroHedge


Moore's Law Turns 50 by Thomas L. Friedman via WSJ Opinion

"But what an exponential it's been. In introducing the evening, Intel's C.E.O., Brian Krzanich summarized where Moore's Law has taken us. If you took Intel's first generation microchip, the 1971 4004, and the latest chip Intel has on the market today, the fifth-generation Core i5 processor, he said, you can see the power of Moore's Law at work: Intel's latest chip offers 3,500 times more performance, is 90,000 times more energy efficient and about 60,000 times lower cost."

"If you think nobody cares if you're alive, try missing a couple of car payments." – Earl Wilson

Have a great weekend.

[Fenix]

Los inversores preocupados por la desaceleración global del crecimiento

Las bolsas europeas de más a menos y en disposición de nuevas caídas
Viernes, 15 de Mayo del 2015 - 17:40:52 CET

Nuevas caídas en las bolsas europeas, en una jornada de baja volatilidad y volumen negociado, y en la que la falta de datos macro y microeconómicos de importancia han dejado a los inversores sin referencias de corto plazo hasta la publicación de los datos USA.

Los nuevos máximos históricos alcanzados ayer en Wall Street posibilitaron la apertura alcista de las bolsas europeas, aunque desde el principio se vio que la presión compradora no era excesiva, por lo que iba a ser difícil que esas alzas fueran de importancia.

US Farmers In "Dire Straits": JPM Warns Of Imminent Liquidity Crunch
Submitted by Tyler D.
05/15/2015 - 14:35

Despite the government's 'advice' to young debt-laden students, the tragedy of the American farmer continues with worryingly pessimistic views on the future of the industry. With farmland prices falling for the first time in almost 30 years, credit conditions are weakening dramatically and the Kansas City Fed warns that persistently low crop prices and high input costs reduced profit margins and increased concerns about future loan repayment capacity, and JPMorgan concludes, the industry is currently in dire straits with the potential for a liquidity crunch for farmers into 2016.


Wall Street Demands Exemption From Punishment In Exchange For Guilty Pleas In FX Rigging
Submitted by Tyler D.
05/15/2015 - 15:33

"Banks want assurances from U.S. regulators that they will not be barred from certain businesses before agreeing to plead guilty to criminal charges over the manipulation of foreign exchange rates, causing a delay in multibillion-dollar settlements," Reuters reports, reinforcing the idea that 'guilty' pleas from Wall Street on FX rigging will ultimately mean absolutely nothing because once the fine print is inserted into the settlements and once the SEC grants every bank's request for a waiver, it will back to business as usual.

[Fenix]

El 73% de los economistas cree que la Fed subirá tipos en septiembre
Viernes, 15 de Mayo del 2015 - 18:01 CET
Según encuesta de Wall Street Journal, el 73% de los economistas consultados cree que la Reserva Federal de EE.UU. subirá tipos en eptiembre.

Sin embargo, los futuros Fed-funds implican que la probabilidad de subidas de tipos en septiembre es menor al 50%.


La economía mundial se enfrenta a un "problema titánico"
Carlos Montero
Viernes, 15 de Mayo del 2015 - 19:45
El economista jefe de HSBC Stephen King ya está pensando en la próxima recesión. En una nota a clientes que compartimos, advierte: "La economía mundial es como un trasatlántico sin botes salvavidas. Si nos golpea otra recesión, podría ser una lucha titánica de verdad para las autoridades monetarias".

"Mientras que las recuperaciones anteriores han cogido a las autoridades monetarias y fiscales con un completo arsenal de herramientas, esta recuperación - tanto en los EE.UU., Europa, y en otros lugares - se ha distinguido por una persistente escasez de munición. Este es un problema importante. En todas las recesiones desde la década de 1970, la tasa de interés de la Fed se ha reducido en un mínimo de 5 puntos porcentuales. Ese tipo de estímulo tradicional está completamente descartado.

King señala que al nivel actual de recuperación, hay una falta de "munición política tradicional". Por ejemplo, los rendimientos del Tesoro no han aumentado, el déficit presupuestario no está cayendo, y los pagos de ayudas sociales siguen en aumento.

En cuanto a lo que podría desencadenar la próxima recesión, King destacó cuatro posibles catalizadores:

1. El crecimiento salarial perjudicará las ganancias corporativas y rebajará la proporción de los beneficios empresariales que contribuyen al producto interior bruto (tampoco ayuda que la productividad laboral sea tan baja). A su vez, los hogares y las empresas perderán la confianza en la economía, y la "burbuja de acciones" estallará con el colapso de los precios de las acciones.

2. Sistemas financieros no bancarios, tales como compañías de seguros y fondos de pensiones, se verán cada vez más incapaces de cumplir con las obligaciones futuras. Esto provocará una enorme demanda de activos líquidos, lo que obligara a la gente a vender rápidamente a pesar de la falta de demanda, provocando una recesión.

3. Fuerzas más allá del control de la Reserva Federal, incluyendo la posibilidad de que la economía china y su moneda colapsen. Unos precios de las materias primas débiles también pueden causar derrumbes en varios mercados emergentes, al igual que la continua fortaleza del dólar.

4. La Fed podría causar la próxima recesión, elevando las tasas de interés demasiado pronto, repitiendo los errores del Banco Central Europeo en 2011 y el Banco de Japón en 2000.

Lacartadelabolsa

Tesla Motors: (Rompe tendencia bajista septiembre 2014)

Viernes, 15 de Mayo del 2015 - 20:36:00

Rompe la canalización y el movimiento bajista desde los máximos históricos marcados en septiembre 2014.

Desde enero de este año se aprecia una clara mejora de las recomendaciones de compra de las casas de análisis. Indicadores técnicos rompiendo al alza.

Recomendación: COMPRAR

Eduardo Faus
Original de Renta 4 Banco

[Fenix]

Berkshire Hathaway: Alcista mientras no rompa los 141,8 dólares

Viernes, 15 de Mayo del 2015 - 20:45:00 CET

Tendencia a corto plazo: Nuestro punto de rotación se sitúa en 141.8.

Nuestra preferencia: la subida se mantiene siempre y cuando el soporte se sitúe en 141.8.

Escenario alternativo: por debajo de 141.8, el riesgo es una caída hasta 138.2 y 136.1.

Técnicamente, el índice de fuerza relativa (RSI) se encuentra por encima de su zona de neutralidad de 50. El indicador de convergencia/divergencia de medias móviles (MACD) se sitúa por encima de su línea de señal y es positivo.

Asimismo, el subyacente se sitúa por encima de su media móvil de 20 y 50 días (se sitúa a 143.32 y 143.92 respectivamente).


Resistencias y soportes: 154.3 * 152.2 ** 150.1 - 143.1 141.8 ** 138.2 *

Tendencia a medio plazo: El Subyacente está inferior a su media móvil 100 dias (146.4). La distancia con respecto a ésta es de -0.4%. A la baja el soporte a vigilar es 136.1, la resistencia clave está en torno a 156.5.

[Fenix]

China Creates Perpetual Leverage Machine After Dropping Debt Directive
Submitted by Tyler D.
05/15/2015 - 19:46

"China is reversing course on a major effort to tackle its hefty local government debt problem, marking a setback for a priority reform aimed at getting its financial house in order," WSJ reports. The abrupt about-face by Beijing, which will now allow local governments to once again tap shadow banking conduits for high interest loans, comes as the PBoC gets set to ramp up an LTRO-like program designed to essentially monetize trillions in local government debt. The interplay between the debt swap program, Chinese-style LTROs, and the decision to drop the ban on LGFV financing could set the stage for a dramatic increase in the country's already massive debt pile.


Are You Ready For The Coming Debt Revolution?
Submitted by Tyler D.
05/15/2015 - 20:15

There is a specter haunting America... and all the developed nations of the world. It is the specter of a debt revolution. Few in the White House realized they had made such a calamitous mistake when the president ended the convertibility of the dollar into gold. And yet it created a world in which parents and grandparents could prey on their grandchildren... for the next 44 years. And it’s still not over.



"The People" Vs. Piketty
05/15/2015 15:00 -0400
Submitted by Erico Matias Tavares via Sinclair & Co.,

Thomas Piketty is getting a lot of attention these days. The French economist has seen the recognition for his lifelong work on the study of inequality skyrocket after publishing “Capital in the Twenty-First Century” in August 2013. The book is a best-seller, which is quite an achievement for anything with 696 pages on economics (even if by some accounts the majority of readers don’t make it much beyond page 12).

Here’s what Paul Krugman, the don of neo-Keynesian economics, had to say about Piketty’s book back in April 2014:

“Other books on economics have been best sellers, but Mr. Piketty’s contribution is serious, discourse-changing scholarship in a way most best sellers aren’t. And conservatives are terrified. (…)The really striking thing about the debate so far is that the right seems unable to mount any kind of substantive counterattack to Mr. Piketty’s thesis.”

That turned out to be incorrect. Barely a month after his glowing review of Piketty’s opus magnum, Krugman had to come out in his defense after several scholars and commentators highlighted some “clear errors” in facts and figures.

And it wasn’t just from the right either. Yanis Varoufakis, economics professor turned finance minister of Greece – and self-proclaimed Marxist – is also a critic of Piketty’s work.

Undeterred, Piketty has joined forces with other like-minded economists to come up with actual proposals to tackle the inequality issues he wrote so extensively about.

As that brave intellectual effort takes shape, we would venture a sneak preview: assemble a huge ledger of all financial transactions, tax the “rich” and their unfair capital gains and make sure that they leave nothing for their kids.

This of course is music to any politician’s ears. It provides an aura of tackling one of humanity's great problems, while providing yet another reason to tax private property.

So in spite of all the publicity, there are two sides of the story here. Should we the People be in favor or against Piketty’s argument?

Inequality and Economic Systems

Where would you prefer to live: in a society with obvious economic and social inequalities but with an abundance of choices and opportunities, or in another with much greater equality and less choices?

The answer greatly influences why societies end up adopting a particular economic and political system – although not always by choice. Of course there are societies that neither feature equality nor opportunity, but in most cases there is a prevalence of one over the other.

To see why we can use a simple example that illustrates this dynamic. An economic system is in fact a set of incentives that drive behaviour, with varying degrees of personal input and liberty. Let’s assume that there are four tribes in a large forest (we did say it was simple) trying to get from point A to point B. Each tribe has the same mix of individuals with different physical and psychological attributes but decides to adopt a different economic system in pursuit of their goal:

* The first tribe adopts capitalism in its “rawest” form: those who can run the fastest (or by sheer luck find a great shortcut) are allowed to get ahead quickly, while the others in spite of their efforts are progressively left behind. This is how inequality is measured in this example: basically the distance between those who are ahead versus hose who are behind. This tribe on the whole will cover a lot of ground, although very unevenly: the fast runners will get very far (possibly even well beyond point B, if they so desire), while the ones in the back hope that the trail which has been blazed before them will somehow help them get through.
* The second tribe adopts similar principles, but with more inclusive incentives. People still largely run in accordance with their capabilities, but the fast runners are encouraged to help those further out in the back through social and financial rewards. They will likely not get as far as the fast runners of the first tribe, but the group as a whole will be much more compact.
* The third tribe adopts socialism. Those who run fast must pay a penalty in favor of those further behind (they are just lucky to have those genes after all). Now the fast runners have to think twice about how fast they should run, because the quicker they run the bigger the penalty. They may end up resenting the slow runners as a result, who may resent them in turn because they should be doing more to help them move along. That tribe will move forward at a more even pace, although clearly slower than the first two tribes and arguably less harmoniously. It's unlikely that anyone will try to go past point B.
* Finally, the fourth tribe adopts communism, where everyone is running in accordance with the same beat. There is no broad inequality since most cover the same ground. However, the fast runners must either accept a much slower pace or, if they dissent, “take one for the team”. The slow ones are not necessarily better off either. If the leaders (the guys beating the drums) want to enhance their collective pace to match the other tribes they may not be able to make it after all.

This was a long way of saying that inequality arises in economic systems where individuals are largely given the freedom to act in accordance with their capabilities and desires. We can certainly force society to be more equal, but this will come at some cost to individual freedoms and opportunities in general.

The fact is that we are all born with different capabilities and attributes. So when someone starts complaining about inequality, we need to understand what they are talking about. Is it because some are more capable than others? Luckier? More cunning? Are they obligated to bring everybody along?

We can say it is unfair that some of us are world class football players, others Hall of Fame actors, and others top tier fund managers. We can complain that they make way too much money. But this is a consequence of the economic system we have adopted in the West. And we're not necessarily poorer because these folks are richer.

In other societies they may have not fared as well. The best baseball players in Cuba are clearly much worse off on a relative basis in comparison to their peers in the US (and many are just as good). And since there are no savings (i.e. capital) there aren’t any fund managers either.

So there, much less inequality, but would you want to live in Cuba?

Piketty’s Argument

Having seen that freer societies tend to have greater inequalities, let’s quickly review Piketty’s argument (especially if you also haven’t made it beyond page 12 of his book).

As a disclaimer, for sure a lot of work went into the book and far from us wanting to oversimplify or denigrate what appears to be an honest attempt to tackle a recurring concern of society (over thousands of years in fact). On the whole Piketty comes across as a decent and sincere fellow.

But being sincere does not mean he's right; anyone can be sincerely wrong. And because of the fame bestowed upon him, his ideas may get widely accepted without due scrutiny or, as we shall see, little basis on fact. Worse, they can serve as justification for some truly repressive and appalling economic policies, which should concern us all.

So here’s the main thrust of Capitalism’s 696 pages: examining over 200 years of return on capital data in twenty Western world countries, Piketty concluded that because such returns have historically exceeded the rate of economic growth the holders of capital will get rich faster than anybody else.

In other words, inequality does not stem from differences in individual ability and achievement as we have discussed above, but rather through the mere ownership of capital. The system is rigged. Moreover, because capital can be inherited, this inequality can persist over many generations.

Piketty claims that the inevitable outcome from capitalism is perpetual misery, social violence and wars.

Incidentally (or not), this is eerily similar to the argument that John Maynard Keynes put forward to advocate the euthanasia of the “rentiers” in the 1930s (a great example of a repressive economic theory that has been adopted by the world’s central bankers and is now causing misery to millions of people, particularly to our elderly). Plus ça change Monsieur Piketty.

We would also have liked to pinpoint the similarities with Karl Marx's thinking (although his bag was mostly the perpetual exploitation of labor by capital, or something like that) but we also never got past page 12 of his book. Apparently a lot of pages are needed to explain something that should have been obvious to us all.

In a June 2014 interview with the jovial Stephen Colbert, Piketty provided some context to his thinking. People like Colbert became rich because capitalism is unfair; and because he became rich Colbert is depriving others from the opportunity to also become rich. The rich are out to get us! Not to worry, the French economist has a solution: tax all earnings above US$500,000 at 80%.

We can start getting a sense as to why Facebook and Spanx were created and mass-adopted in the “unequal” US and not “egalitarian” France, Piketty’s home country. Let's look at some facts.

The Unequal Land of the Free

Without even getting into the time-tested damage an 80% tax rate does to an economy, the US – the habitual poster child for inequality – provides robust evidence that inequality is oftentimes ephemeral and generally misunderstood. This is where facts start getting in the way of Piketty's grand vision for society.

Thomas Sowell, the prominent American economist from the Chicago School, has extensively researched this topic. He found that 56% of US households will join the richest 10% at some point in their lives, usually when they are older. So much for the rich versus the poor; this is much more likely a debate with our own selves at different stages of our lives.

When looking into the composition of the much vilified 1%, the statistics are even more revealing: over the course of a decade, the great majority of Americans only stay at that level for one year, and less than 13% for two years. Basically these are temporary spikes in wealth from things like asset sales. It certainly doesn’t seem like the wealthiest 1% are out to screw everyone else.

We have also written about inequality in the past. The Pikettys of the world obsess about the dispersion of income levels, where we believe that a much better measure of general prosperity is the percentage of people earning above a minimal threshold that achieves the fulfilment of basic needs (and then some). Using this metric US prosperity peaked in 1999, but the subsequent decline is certainly not attributable to ownership of capital.

History shows us that prosperity is best achieved in societies with a strong rule of law, enforceable property rights, good education and... access to capital!!! Try starting a business with no money and see how far you get. To vilify capital and the people who own it is truly myopic, not to say misguided.

So what if dozens of new Mark Zuckerbergs and Sara Blakelys also emerge from that system and greatly distort the income statistics because of their phenomenal wealth? But according to Piketty, Zuckerberg’s “fair” compensation for co-founding Facebook, a social media vehicle used by over a billion people around the world, and Blakely for starting Spanx, which sells undergarments to millions of women, should be a little over US$500,000 per year. Does this sound fair to you?

For all its virtues, we are not saying that the US is a perfect country. Many millions of people are still struggling after the last recession, and for them the American Dream is proving to be ever more elusive. Our point is that whatever valid grievances we may have with inequality, the ownership of capital is not the culprit. And hurting the people most likely to create it is not a solution either.

The Poor vs Piketty

One of the most robust critiques we have seen of Piketty’s work comes from Hernando de Soto, the Peruvian economist. His critique is not based on models or theory but rather on hard facts accumulated by his research team in the very countries where Piketty’s perpetual scourges of inequality – misery, social violence and wars – are prevalent.

He used Egypt as an example, which in 2011 was undergoing a profound social change with the emergence of the Arab Spring movement. What better testing ground to assess people's grievances? His findings were the polar opposite of what Piketty contends: people in those countries “actually want more rather than less capital, and they want their capital to be real and not fictitious”.

In fact, de Soto even points out that the very first "martyrs" of this movement were mostly small entrepreneurs desperate because they did not have access to the capital to sustain their businesses.

Piketty did not have reliable data for developing countries, but rather than conducting his own on-the-ground research he merely extrapolated his findings to the whole globe using data from Western countries. And voilá!

How was Muhammad Yunus able to improve the livelihoods of thousands of families in his native Bangladesh? By providing microcredit to them; in other words, access to capital.

How did China become such an economic powerhouse? Certainly not by restricting its citizens' access to capital and taxing them at 80%. On the contrary, it sucked as much foreign capital and know-how as it possibly could. At the start of their great march towards prosperity in the 1980s, Deng Xiaoping (supposedly) proclaimed "to get rich is glorious". They were tired of Mao-Tse Tung wanting to make everyone equal.

Piketty clearly knows something people in emerging markets don't. Or maybe what he was really describing is capital in the nineteenth century, not the twenty-first.

Unintended but Predictable Consequences

We have rich people, poor people, right-wing economists, left-wing economists and even revolutionaries, all contesting Piketty’s argument. It seems we the People do have a point against him. But will it prevail?

We’re not optimistic on this one. It is far more likely that Piketty's ideas will gain traction rather than fade away. Why? Because it gives politicians and their Keynesian consorts yet another framework and justification as to why the state should be the key allocator of resources in society.

In other words, it’s another "soak the rich" argument, this time propagated by a soft-spoken best-selling author. And to think that the state will be any more benevolent and altruistic when it is done soaking them is another example of academic theory which is contradicted by the historical record. Power corrupts everything, especially a more aggressive and intrusive state. Perhaps unintended, but clearly a predictable consequence.

The state does play a very important role in society, but not how Piketty, Krugman and their pals envisage it. Unfortunately, it seems we may be saddled with yet another set of dubious economic ideologies governing our lives and our livelihoods.

If you are one of those fast runners, we can only wish you the best of luck in your journey across the forest

[Fenix]

Cold War 2.0 Caught On Tape: US Military Convoy Crosses Eastern Europe While NATO Sings Karaoke Peace Ballad
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 05/15/2015 - 13:45

A day after Kiev chose hawkish US Senator John McCain to serve on President Poroshenko's advisory committee (spoiler alert: he had to decline), the US military rolls through Romania with a "simple message" for Vladimir Putin and Russia. Meanwhile, European officials hold hands and sing Michael Jackson and Lionel Richie's "We Are The World" at a NATO dinner.


The Big Lie: Serial Retail Sales Downward Revisions Hide Ugly Truth
Submitted by Tyler D.
05/15/2015 - 13:31

Over the last 5 years, over 20% of the initial gains in Retail Sales have been 'removed' by serial downward revisions in later months.


Crude Pops-And-Drops As Rig Count Decline Slowest In Over 6 Months
Submitted by Tyler D.
05/15/2015 - 13:07

Following the last 5 weeks slowing pace of decline of rig counts (with Wyoming and Pennsylvania regions actually adding marginal rigs), and the rise in crude prices, Baker Hughes reports the slowing pace of decline continues. Total rig count dropped 6 to 888 - the smallest decline since Decmber 5th. Texas' Eagle Ford region added 1 rig. Crude's initial reaction (after its v-shaped dump-and-pump this morning off $59.50 support again) was higher margionally but that quickly faded.



"Death Of The Bond Bull" Greatly Exaggerated - Yields Now Lower On The Week
Submitted by Tyler D.
05/15/2015 - 11:50

Reports of the death of the global bond bull market have been greatly exaggerated. Much to the chagrin of all the "told-you-so" tale-tellers on business-media this week, US Treasuries have been in great demand the last 2 days and all bonds 10Y maturity and below are now lower in yield on the week (with 30Y up a mere 4bps). Treasuries are now notably outperforming Bunds on the week.


House Passes Massive Defense Bill Which Obama Will Promptly Veto
Submitted by Tyler D.
05/15/2015 - 11:28

The US House of Representative just approved (by a vote of 269 to 151) the $612 billion National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA) funding moar warmongery for fiscal year 2016. However, the vote came short of a veto-proof majority and since the administration opposes the defense policy bill - for its alleged budgeting "gimmicks," as well as its provisions for arming Ukrainian forces - we suspect President Obama is preparing to unleash the veto pen.


Oil Industry Sues US Government Over Oil Train Safety Rules
Submitted by Tyler D.
05/15/2015 - 11:13

Buffett vs 'Bama? America’s largest energy trade association is suing the US government, contending that its timeline for upgrading oil tank cars for freight trains isn’t realistic and, in some cases, is too expensive.


Someone Is Lying: Job Optimism Plummets To Levels Unseen Since Financial Crisis
Submitted by Tyler D.
05/15/2015 - 10:21

The percentage of respondents to University of Michigan's Consumer Sentiment Survey that "think they (or their spouse) will lose their job over the next 5 years" soared to its highest since March 2009.

[Fenix]

UMich Consumer Sentiment Crashes As Surging Gas Prices Trump Stock Record Highs
Submitted by Tyler D.
05/15/2015 - 10:06

Soaring gas prices dueled with soaring stock prices to leave University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment and it appears the former won. Printing at the weakest level since Oct 2014, UMich dropped to 88.6 (vs 95.9 expectations). This is the biggest miss on record.. and biggest MoM drop since Dec 2012. Both current conditons and expectations plunged despite surges in inflation expectations. Higher income expectations are starting to plunge - at their lowest in 7 months - and household finances are seenas the worst since July 2014. And finally, the survey's spokspersonsays that respondents showed "concern over employment."



Deutsche Bank: "No One Knows How To Hedge Or Price Liquidity In This World"
Submitted by Tyler D.
05/15/2015 - 09:54

"... some stressed more than others about it but all concluded that the last few weeks in rates were eye-opening. No-one really knew how to hedge or price for it in a world where you need to hit short-term performance targets. This supports my view that liquidity premiums will never be properly priced in this cycle and investors will stay in assets too long in order to maximise short-term performance.... when this cycle does end there is likely to be savage moves in markets where either investors need to sell or where they are able to sell."


Saudi Victory? WTI Crude Tumbles To Key Support (Again)
Submitted by Tyler D.
05/15/2015 - 09:39

It appears a slew of dismally disappointing economic data has finally broken the back of the camel... WTI Crude - on the heels of Saudi proclamations that they are winning the fight against US Shale - has tumbled back to the key $59.50 level...


Empire Manufacturing Misses For 4th Month In A Row As Spending Outlook Plunges To 15-Month Lows
Submitted by Tyler D.
05/15/2015 - 08:39

Having plumbed the depth of 2-year lows in April, May's Empire Manufacturing printed a disappointing 3.09 (against expectations of a bounce to 5.00 from -1.19). This is the 4th miss in a row and for context is the same level as we dropped to in January 2008. Number of employees and prices paid (and received) tumbled, new orders edged higher but crucially 'hope' plunged back to 3-month lows. Furtures expectations for CapEx and Tech Spending also collapsed.


Is The Dam Bursting?
Submitted by Tyler D.
05/15/2015 - 08:21

It is a cornerstone of orthodox economics that recessions are not just emotion and pessimism but spring out of an exogenous “shock.” There is none to be found here in sharp contrast to 2008 which at least had a deep financial panic. However, the trajectory of the economy since 2012 has been seeded by a distinct lack of growth especially in wages and incomes – what economists have been taking as slow but steady growth was actually much more nefarious. We may find out that recession shock includes just generic and basic attrition; that “demand”, despite all the attention and “stimulus” given it, can only hold out for so long without any actual (as opposed to purely statistical) alleviation.


Ray Dalio: "If You Don't Own Gold, You Know Neither History Nor Economics"
Tyler Durden's picture
Submitted by Tyler D.
05/15/2015 05:43 -0400


Bridgewater's Ray Dalio explains in under 120 seconds why everyone should allocate some of their portfolio to gold:

"If you dont own gold...there is no sensible reason other than you dont know history or you dont know the economics of it..."

Of course, few 'status quo' believers will pay heed to the $150 billion AUM fund manager, despite his imploring everyone that to be successful, one must "Think Independently, Stay Humble"



The Regulatory State: Central Planning & Bureaucracy On A Rampage
Submitted by Tyler D.
05/14/2015 - 22:30

“Federal regulation and intervention cost American consumers and businesses an estimated $1.88 trillion in 2014 in lost economic productivity and higher prices. If U.S. federal regulation was a country, it would be the world’s 10th largest economy, ranking behind Russia and ahead of India. Economy-wide regulatory costs amount to an average of $14,976 per household – around 29% of an average family budget of $51,100."

[Fenix]

The Trouble with Cash
Submitted by Tyler D.
05/14/2015 - 21:30

Monetary policy has now become like a pressure cooker with a defective safety-valve. Central bankers realise it and investors are slowly beginning to as well. Add into this mix a faltering global economy, a fact that is becoming impossible to ignore, and a dash-for-cash becomes a serious potential risk to both monetary policy and the banking system. There is an obvious alternative to cash, and that is to buy physical gold.


How China's Banks Hide Trillions In Credit Risk: Full Frontal
Submitted by Tyler D.
05/14/2015 - 21:00

According to Fitch, nearly 40% of credit in China is outside bank loans, meaning that between forced roll-overs, the practice of carrying channel loans as "investments" and "receivables", inconsistent application of loan classification norms, and the dramatic increase in off balance sheet financing, the 'real' ratio of non-performing loans to total loans is likey far higher than the headline number.


3 Things: The Labor Hoarding Effect
Submitted by Tyler D.
05/14/2015 - 20:30

While massive binges in stock buybacks and accounting gimmicks have continued to blur the actual profitability of businesses, the decline in jobless claims suggests that there is little room from further reductions in body counts. However, that does not mean that businesses must begin rapidly increasing employment and wages. Businesses are indeed hiring, but prefer to hire from the "currently employed" labor pool rather than the unemployed masses. The "bad news" is that for those unemployed, full-time employment remains elusive, and wages remain suppressed due to the high competition for available work.



McCain Joins Ukraine Advisory Committee Headed By Geo rgia's Fugitive Ex-President
Submitted by Tyler D.
05/14/2015 - 19:00

John McCain may find himself 'back in the (former) USSR' more frequently as the Senator landed on Ukrainian President Poroshenko's list of advisers along with former Geor gian President (and current fugitive) Miheil Saakashvili. This should give McCain an opportunity to realize his dream of turning the 'conflict' with Russia into a proper war that self-respecting hawks can be proud of.


Even The FDIC Admits It's Not Ready For The Next Banking Crisis
Submitted by Tyler D.
05/14/2015 - 17:00

The FDIC explains, banks have grown far larger and even more complex since 2008, and that "[s]uch trends have not only continued, they accelerated as a result of the crisis." The FDIC goes on to suggest that its current tools and business model are “not sufficient to mitigate the complexities of large institution failures." Not only are they not equipped to handle it, they’re not entirely sure what to do: that’s why the FDIC is "seeking comment on what additional regulatory action should be taken..."


"Obama's Tax-The-Rich Plan Is Futile" Druckenmiller Warns, America's Aging Population Is A "Massive, Massive Problem"
Submitted by Tyler D.
05/14/2015 - 16:31

"Young people are not going to be talking about cutting back," exclaims billionaire hedge fund manager Stanley Druckenmiller, ominously concluding "there will be nothing to cut back." The reason he is so doom-full about the future - an aging population will present a "massive, massive problem" for the U.S. in 15 years - as Bloomberg reports, because of demographics, "we're just using more and more of society’s resources to fend for the old people," warning that Obama's plans to tax the rich to pay for more social services for the poor would be futile.


Will A Spike In Rates Hurt Stocks? (Spoiler Alert: Yes)
Submitted by Tyler D.
05/14/2015 - 15:40

The current consternation among global equity markets is centered around the recent considerable rise in bond yields globally. Historical precedents, or the lessons they contain, which bear some resemblance to present market conditions suggest the recent spike in bond yields would appear to have historical evidence to back up those who harbor concerns about its potential negative impact on stocks – a negative impact that may be of a long-term nature.


Who Is The Biggest Player In Energy?
Submitted by Tyler D.
05/14/2015 - 08:27

PetroChina just surpassed Exxon Mobil to become the largest energy company in the world, on a market cap basis. Now the question becomes: can PetroChina retain its status as the world’s largest energy company?


SocGen Asks If "$60 Billion Of Money Printing Monthly Can't Get The Euro Down Then What's Next?"
Submitted by Tyler D.
05/14/2015 - 07:49

"Former BoE governor King yesterday made a timely intervention, warning that central banks risk tipping the world into a currency war. We're there already, of course, but if $60bn per month of money printing by the ECB can't get the euro down (because of the USD), then what's next? The RBA has cut rates twice this year, and AUD/USD trades back over 0.8100. Is FX intervention next?"

[Fenix]

Former NATO Commander, Presidential Candidate Makes Millions Pushing Penny Stocks
Submitted by Tyler D.
05/14/2015 - 13:45

Gen. Wesley Clark has been a busy man since retiring from public service with a plan to make $40 million. In addition to chairing notorious investment bank Rodman & Renshaw, the former NATO allied commander and one-time Presidential hopeful has thrown his face and fame behind a plethora of OTC-listed companies, Bloomberg reports. From grilled cheese sandwich trucks to hydroponic lettuce companies run by the real-life Bud Fox, Clark's name has become so synonymous with doomed penny stocks that one fund manager calls his very appearance on a company board "a red flag."


Senate Passes Obama's TPP Fast-Track Trade Proposal
Submitted by Tyler D.
5/14/2015 - 15:11

Two days ago there was some rejoicing and much surprise when the "Warren-faction" of Senate liberals turned against Obama, and failed to vote for a fast-track approval of the TPP. That surprise lasted for about 48 hours when moments ago, in a 65-33 vote, the Senate finally advanced a measure allowing Obama to expedite approval of trade agreements, a bill with bipartisan support in that chamber which however according to Bloomberg may run into strong opposition from House Democrats.


Saudis Declare Victory Over Shale Just As US Oil Production Jumps, Bakken Wells Hit Record
Submitted by Tyler D.
05/14/2015 - 11:13

Yesterday, the FT reported that Saudi Arabia gloated in declaring victory over US shale. “There is no doubt about it, the price fall of the last several months has deterred investors away from expensive oil including US shale, deep offshore and heavy oils,” a Saudi official told the Financial Times in Riyadh, giving a rare insight into the kingdom’s thinking on oil strategy. Which is great, but there are two problems. First, any time someone say "there is no doubt about it", or "unambiguously this or that", it is a lie. Second, Saudi Arabia is dead wrong.




As If 85 Million Avon Shares Short Suddenly Cried Out And Were Suddenly Silenced... By A Fake LBO Letter

How do you make what had been a very good couple of years for tens of thousands of Avon Products shorts into an absolute nightmare of a day? By doing what PTG Partners just did when moments ago it announced that, out of the blue, it would like to purchase AVP for a price of $18.75 or nearly three times higher than the Avon stock price moments before the announcement. Because why pay double when triple would do.

[admin]

Southern Copper anuncia pausa en proyecto Perú, busca despejar dudas

Por Teresa Céspedes y Marco Aquino

LIMA, 15 mayo (Reuters) - La minera Southern Copper, una de las mayores productoras de cobre del mundo, anunció el viernes una "pausa" de dos meses en el desarrollo de su proyecto Tía María en Perú para despejar dudas de la población, que protesta contra el desarrollo del plan de 1.400 millones de dólares.

El anuncio del presidente de Southern Copper, Oscar González, se produce poco después de que el presidente Ollanta Humala demandó a la empresa que busque un entendimiento con quienes se oponen a su millonario proyecto.

Agricultores de la provincia peruana de Islay, en la sureña región de Arequipa, protagonizan una protesta desde hace más de 50 días contra Tía María por el temor de que la operación contamine sus tierras y use sus fuentes de agua. Las manifestaciones ya dejaron tres muertos y cientos de heridos.

González dijo en un comunicado de la empresa que la "pausa" permitirá a todos presentar sus inquietudes y temores para identificar las soluciones, convenir el camino y definir las responsabilidades "en un plazo razonable".

"Hemos escuchado al (...) Presidente de la República

y en el espíritu de recobrar el clima de convivencia pacífica que el país requiere, le solicitamos el tiempo y las facilidades necesarias para poder socializar el proyecto y despejar todas las dudas existentes en los próximos 60 días", afirmó.

Southern Copper, controlada por el Grupo México, estaba a la espera de la licencia del Gobierno para construir Tía María, una mina que produciría unas 120.000 toneladas de cobre desde el 2017, según la compañía, y que suma años de retraso.

Humala había dicho momentos antes en un mensaje transmitido por la televisión que el Gobierno no tiene motivos para suspender el proyecto porque enfrentaría acciones legales de la empresa, dejando en manos de la minera el destino del plan.

"Demando a la empresa a que manifieste su voluntad y ejecute acciones concretas para generar las bases del entendimiento requeridas para no solo lograr la paz social sino el desarrollo, bases fundamentales para la ejecución de cualquier proyecto", afirmó el mandatario.

CONTINÚA MALESTAR

La minería es una actividad clave para la economía del país andino porque sus ventas representan alrededor del 60 por ciento del total de sus exportaciones.

Perú es el tercer productor mundial de cobre.

En el 2011, otras tres personas murieron por protestas y el Gobierno ordenó a Southern Copper un nuevo estudio ambiental sobre Tía María, el cual fue aprobado el año pasado.

Partidos oficialistas y de oposición y hasta gremios de empresas privadas habían demandado una tregua a Southern Copper en torno a Tía María, mientras las protestas violentas aún continuaban en algunas zonas aledañas al proyecto.

Una de las autoridades de la zona en conflicto dijo que pese al anuncio de la pausa en el proyecto, no estaba claro aún si los agricultores iban a deponer las protestas.

"Persistimos en lo mismo. Al final no es la empresa que toma la decisión, sino el pueblo", dijo el alcalde de la localidad de Cocachacra, Helar Valencia. "Hay un malestar tremendo", agregó.

Más temprano, la policía anunció que detuvo a uno de los líderes de las protestas contra el proyecto por acusaciones de que habría extorsionado a la firma para detener las manifestaciones.

El dirigente Pepe Julio Gutiérrez, presidente del Frente de Defensa del Valle de Tambo, tenía un pedido de prisión preventiva emitido por la fiscalía tras la difusión de un audio en los medios de comunicación en el que una voz, atribuida a él, presuntamente pedía dinero para detener las protestas.

Por ese motivo, el Gobierno suspendió esta semana un diálogo que tenía con la minera para acabar el conflicto en la zona, a donde Humala ha enviado a efectivos militares para controlar la protesta.

Varios proyectos mineros en el país han sido suspendidos en los últimos años en medio de protestas, entre ellos Conga, un desarrollo aurífero de 5.000 millones de dólares de la estadounidense Newmont Mining y la peruana Buenaventura.

En Perú, cuya economía creció en el 2014 a su menor ritmo en cinco años por la caída de los precios de los minerales, hay más de 200 conflictos sociales en su mayoría ligados a temas ambientales, de acuerdo a la Defensoría del Pueblo local.