Martes 12/10/10 Reporta Intel, minutas del Fed

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Eventos economicos

Martes

Indice del optimismo de los pequenios negocios
Ventas retail
Libro rojo
Subasta de bonos
Minutas del Fed

NFIB Small Business Optimism Index
7:30 AM ET


ICSC-Goldman Store Sales
7:45 AM ET


Redbook
8:55 AM ET


4-Week Bill Announcement
11:00 AM ET


3-Month Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET


6-Month Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET


3-Yr Note Auction
1:00 PM ET


FOMC Minutes
2:00 PM ET

[admin]

Intel reporta despues del cierre, todos los ojos estaran en sus comentarios cobre la demanda de chips en los siguientes trimestres.

Las minutas del Fed probablemente diran que el Fed comprara mas activos QE2.

On Deck Tuesday: Intel Earnings, Fed Minutes Released

Associated Press

2 p.m. –Fed minutes from the most-recent meeting are set to be released. “Given the number of Fed officials who have thrown their weight behind more asset purchases since the FOMC meeting, the minutes are unlikely to shift the perception that further quantitative easing is now almost inevitable,” wrote analysts from Capital Economics.

After the close — Chip giant Intel reports earnings. All eyes will be focused on commentary about demand for chips in coming quarters. “While a weak back to school period is clearly priced in, we remain cautious of forthcoming PC demand,” wrote Wedbush Semiconductor analysts.

[admin]

El surplus comercial de Chian sera el mas grande desde la crisis, se espera que sea en el vecindario de los $17.8 billones en el mes de Setiembre.

Eso va a poner mas fuego al resto del mundo en presionar a China para que flexibilize su moneda.

-----------------------------

Se espera que sea

China Trade Surplus Poised to Cap Biggest Quarter Since Crisis
By Bloomberg News - Oct 11, 2010 12:00 PM ET


China may tomorrow report a $17.8 billion trade surplus for September that would cap the biggest quarterly excess since the financial crisis in 2008, adding fuel to U.S. calls for import protection.

The median estimate of 24 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News compares with an August surplus of $20 billion. That would take the third-quarter total to $66.5 billion, the largest since the fourth quarter of 2008.

The U.S. Senate will consider legislation that would allow duties to be imposed on Chinese imports because of the nation’s failure to allow bigger currency gains, according to Senator Charles Schumer of New York. Yuan forwards surged to the highest level in more than two years yesterday on speculation that Premier Wen Jiabao’s government will yield to U.S. and European pressure.

“China’s trade surplus may reach $200 billion this year, giving the U.S. and Europe more ammunition,” said Shen Jianguang, a Hong Kong-based economist at Mizuho Securities Asia Ltd. who formerly worked for the International Monetary Fund and the European Central Bank. Policy makers should speed gains by the yuan “because a currency war would be most damaging to China,” Shen said.

By comparison, the trade surplus was $196 billion in 2009.

China may also this week announce the third-quarter increase in the nation’s foreign-currency reserves, which climbed $48 billion to a record $2.5 trillion, according to the median estimate in an economists’ survey.

‘Hot Money’

Inflows of capital from trade and foreign investment and so-called hot money betting on gains by the Chinese currency are complicating management of the fastest-growing major economy. Besides keeping inflation in check, policy makers want to cool the real-estate market to prevent asset bubbles.

China’s central bank unexpectedly and temporarily raised reserve requirements for six large commercial lenders, reining in liquidity as the economy stabilizes, according to a Reuters report yesterday.

The ratio will increase 50 basis points and for two months, the news agency said, citing four people who weren’t identified by name. The current level is 17 percent for the biggest banks and 15 percent for smaller ones. Market News cited traders, also not identified by name, to the same effect. The People’s Bank of China and the six banks declined to comment.

Li Shanshan, a Beijing-based banking analyst at BoCom International Holdings Co., said the reported move may be to drain liquidity because of 570 billion yuan ($86 billion) of central bank bills maturing in October.

‘Rising Inflation Concerns’

Isaac Meng, a Beijing-based economist at BNP Paribas, said that the central bank may have acted in anticipation of extra money flowing into China because of quantitative easing in the U.S. and investors betting on the yuan.

“To combat rising inflation concerns the best option would be to raise interest rates, but apparently the Chinese government cannot do that for fear of more capital inflows,” said Dorris Chen, a Shanghai-based bank analyst who also works for BNP Paribas.

Twelve-month non-deliverable forwards jumped 0.8 percent to 6.4390 per dollar as of 5:30 p.m. in Hong Kong yesterday, indicating the currency may strengthen 3.6 percent against the dollar from the spot rate. The yuan yesterday touched 6.6610, the highest since 1993. The Chinese currency has gained about 2.4 percent since the government said in June that it would allow more flexibility.

China’s exports probably grew 26 percent last month from a year earlier, compared with a gain of 34.4 percent in August, according to the economists’ survey. Import growth may have slowed to 25 percent from 35.2 percent.

Currency Debates

Debate about competitive devaluations dominated International Monetary Fund meetings last week. U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy F. Geithner renewed his call for China to let its currency rise and Luxembourg Prime Minister Jean-Claude Juncker, who chairs a panel of euro-area finance ministers, said the yuan is “more than undervalued.”

Chinese central bank Governor Zhou Xiaochuan said his nation needs to avoid the “shock therapy” of excessive yuan appreciation and “very fast” gains probably wouldn’t end global economic imbalances. Yuan gains of 20 percent to 40 percent would exacerbate Chinese unemployment and cause social upheaval, according to Premier Wen.

--Li Yanping, Luo Jun. With assistance from Jay Wang in Singapore. Editors: Paul Panckhurst, Andrew Barden

[admin]

Yen down 82.29

Kospi -0.46%

Euro down 1.3860

El Nikkei +0.13%

Apple tiene que poner limites a las ordenes de iPhones 4 en China.

[admin]

Copper October 11,20:18
Bid/Ask 3.7945 - 3.7977
Change -0.0082 -0.21%
Low/High 3.7945 - 3.8063
Charts

Nickel October 11,20:04
Bid/Ask 11.0270 - 11.1853
Change -0.0680 -0.61%
Low/High 11.0043 - 11.1857
Charts

Aluminum October 11,20:17
Bid/Ask 1.0615 - 1.0640
Change -0.0019 -0.18%
Low/High 1.0610 - 1.0669
Charts

Zinc October 11,20:17
Bid/Ask 1.0498 - 1.0530
Change -0.0034 -0.32%
Low/High 1.0486 - 1.0575
Charts

Lead October 11,14:14
Bid/Ask 1.0476 - 1.0521
Change +0.0000 +0.00%
Low/High 1.0476 - 1.0544

[admin]

Yen down 82.14

-45

El Shanghai C. -0.09%, el Nikkei -0.88%,

Euro down 1.3863

Korea -0.98%, Australia -1.33%

[admin]

Noda de Japon dice que estan listos para tomar acciones mas serias contra el fortalecimiento del yen.

Yields down 2.37%

-43%

El Shanghai C. +0.33%

[admin]

Oil down 81.99, Au down 1,349.20

[admin]

Euro up 1.3876

[admin]

2010, Gasto Record

En dos anios, un 21.4% de aumento

Por si no se dio cuenta, pero tampoco (se hicieron) se dieron cuenta los medios de comunicacion. Al final de la semana pasada el Congressional Budget Office dijo que el presupuesto fiscal del 2010 tuvo otro anio fabuboloso para el gobierno: gastando su dinero. No esperamos que Obama ofrezca una conferencia de prensa al respecto (no le conviene) pero por que los republicanos estan tan callados.

El gasto para el anio que termino el 30 de Setiembre aumento a $3.45 trillones, segundo solo frente al del 2009: $3.52 trillones, ambos ya en los libros de records.

Los gastos domesticos aumentaron, por ejemplo Medicaid crecio 8.7%, beneficios de desempleo aumentaron en nada menos que 34.3% a $160 billones. El costo de los seguros de desempleo se han triplicado en tres anios.


The 2010 Spending Record
In two years, a 21.4% increase.

Perhaps you missed it, but then so did the Washington press corps. Late last week the Congressional Budget Office released its preliminary budget tallies for fiscal year 2010, and the news is that the U.S. government had another fabulous year—in spending your money. We didn't expect President Obama to hold a press conference, but why are Republicans so quiet?

Spending rolled in for the year that ended September 30 at $3.45 trillion, second only to 2009's $3.52 trillion in the record books. But don't think this means Washington was relatively less spendthrift. CBO reports that the modest overall spending decline results from three one-time events.

.The costs of TARP declined by $262 billion from 2009 as banks repaid their bailout cash, payments to Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac were $51 billion lower (though still a $40 billion net loser for the taxpayer), and deposit insurance payments fell by $55 billion year over year. "Excluding those three programs, spending rose by about 9 percent in 2010, somewhat faster than in recent years," CBO says.

Somewhat faster. You've got to laugh, or cry, when a 9% annual increase qualifies as only "somewhat faster" than normal.

What did Washington spend more money on? Well, despite two wars, defense spending rose by 4.7% to $667 billion, down from an annual average increase of 8% from 2005 to 2009.

Editorial Board Member Matt Kaminski on the Wisconsin senate race.
.Once again domestic accounts far and away led the increases. Medicaid rose by 8.7%, and unemployment benefits by an astonishing 34.3%—to $160 billion. The costs of jobless insurance have tripled in two years. CBO adds that if you take out the savings for deposit insurance, funding for all "other activities" of government—education, transportation, foreign aid, housing, and so on—rose by 13% in 2010.

As for the deficits, the 2010 total was $1.29 trillion, down slightly from $1.42 trillion. That's a two-year total of $2.7 trillion, or more than the entire amount during the Reagan Administration, when deficits were supposed to be ruinous. Now liberal economists tell us that deficits are the key to restoring prosperity. But all we have to show for spending nearly 25% of GDP for two years running is a growth rate of 1.7% and 9.6% unemployment.

Those slow growth numbers have contributed to the deficits by yielding paltry tax revenues. Individual income tax receipts fell again in 2010, by 1.6% to $901 billion. As recently as 2008, individual income tax revenues were $1.15 trillion. Corporate tax revenue climbed a healthy 38.6% to $192 billion, but that's still well below the $304 billion of 2008. This only underscores how much deficit reduction depends on a growth revival.

Here's the kicker: By far the biggest percentage-gain revenue winner for the taxpayer in 2010 was . . . the Federal Reserve. Thanks to the expansion of its balance sheet with riskier assets, the Fed earned $76 billion during the year, a 121% increase. The Fed's windfall is a perfect symbol of our current economic policy. The government is making money because it now controls so much capital, but it is robbing that money from the private economy in the process. It is never a good sign when your central bank is a national profit center.

The nearby table shows the increases in spending overall and in certain major categories over the last two fiscal years. You might call it the fiscal scorecard for the 111th Congress, and that's before the ObamaCare subsidies begin in earnest. (We've excluded TARP and deposit insurance to better capture the underlying spending trend.)

The 21.4% federal spending increase in two years ought to put to rest any debate about the nature of America's fiscal problem. The Pelosi Congress has used the recession as an excuse to send spending to record heights, and its economic policies have contributed to a lousy recovery. The solution is to stop the spending and change the policies. Polls open on November 2.

[admin]

Europa la intolerante

La imagen progresiva de Europa es una fabricacion de la mente de los liberales Americanos.

En 1965 Tom Wolfe dijo" La oscura noche del facismo siempre esta descendiendo en US pero aterriza solamente en Europa. Y lo mismo pasa hoy dia.

El anio pasado casi el 60% de los Swiss votaron a favor de la prohibicion de la construcciones de minarets del todo, no solamente en algunos lugares, en todas partes.

En Belgium, la camara baja del parlamento paso la prohibicion de la burga y ahora espera la aprobacion del Senado. En Francia esa ley se dio la semana pasada.

En los ultimos anios, la derecha extrema, partidos anti-inmigrantes han tenido mucho exito en todo Europa. En Sweden, el partido nacionalista Sweden Democrats entraron al parlamento por primera vez desde que el partido fue fundado en 1988. En Inglaterra, la extrema derecha British National Party gano con mas de tres veces los votos en las elecciones del parlamento comparados con el 2005; el anio pasado gano dos escanios en el Parlamento Europeo.

En Austria, el Freddom Party -previamente liderado por Joerg Haider, quien tuvo palabras positivas acerca de los Nazis - gano el 17.5% de los votos en el 2008. En Francia el National Front Party de Jean-Marie Le Pen, quien cuestiono la existencia de las camaras de gas de los Nazis antes de decir que fueron "un pequenio detalle" de la Segunda Guerra Mundial, termino segundo en las elecciones del 2002.

Y ahora la extrema derecha esta surgiendo nuevamente en Alemania, donde las exigentes leyes de expresion los habian mantenido alejados del Bundestag. Los recientes sondeos de opinion citados por el German Press Agency estima que el apoyo por el partido anti-Musulmal es el 20%, lo cual sera suficiente para entrar al parlamento.

El que los extremitas entren al parlamento representa la sacudida mas grande a la politica Europea desde la desaparicion del comunismo, escribio Denis MacShane recientemente en Newsweek. Mr MacShane es miembro del Labour del Parlamento Ingles y sirvio como ministro de estado en Europa.

Los Europeos no quieren solamente a los Musulmanes si no tambien a los Judios, quienes fueron casi totalmente exterminados del continente hace 60 anios. Un reciente sondeo de actitudes de Pew Global encontro que caso el 50% de los Espanioles tienen una opinion desfavorable o muy desfavorable de los Judios. Las cifras para los Alemanes es del 25%, los Franceses 20% y los Britanicos 10%. El anti-Semitismo ha sido subestimado por la reciente declaracion del European Union Trade Commissioner Karel De Gucht quien dijo" no es facil el tener, aunque sean Judios moderados, una discusion racional acerca delo que esta pasando en el Medio Oriente"

Entonces cuando los liberales Americanos le dicen a los conservadores que son racistas y que quieren imponer el fascimo en US (habiendo fracasado durante los dos gobiernos de la administracion Bush), ellos ignoran que parte del Occidente donde hay una genuina nostalgia por la diversidad, es una fabricacion de la mente de los liberales Americanos.

Cualquiera que haya viajado alrededor de Europa sabe que el avance progresista, diversidad etnica y religiosa, no es mas que una fabricacion de la mente de los liberales Americanos.

Los liberales Americanos que ignoran el racismo de los Europeos y que consideran que el oponerse a la construccion de una mezquita en el World Trade Center nos hace recordar a la sugerencia del comunista Aleman Berlot Brecht: "No seria mas facil en ese caso que el gobierno disuelva a la gente y elija a otra"

A traves del debate de la construccion de la mezquita, la gran mayoria de Americanos mostraron que eran capaces de tener un debate respetuoso a pesar de no estar de acuerdo. Son los Europeos, nuevamente, sus impulsos oscuros los que debemos temer.



Europe the Intolerant
The continent's progressive image is a fabrication of the American liberal mind.

By JAMES KIRCHICK
Prague

'The dark night of fascism is always descending in the United States and yet lands only in Europe." So said Tom Wolfe in 1965, and so it is today.

Various commentators have argued recently that opposition by many Americans to a proposed Islamic center two blocks from the ruins of the World Trade Center represents deep-seated religious bigotry and paranoia. But if any place is plagued by increasing bigotry, it's not America but Europe, the continent whose welfare states and pacifism are so admired by American liberals.

Last year, nearly 60% of Swiss voted to ban the construction of minarets—all minarets, everywhere, not just near the sites of world-historical terrorist attacks committed by Muslim radicals.

In Belgium, the lower house of parliament passed a burqa ban this year that now awaits Senate approval. In France such a ban became the law of the land last week, having been upheld by the country's top court. Although there are legitimate reasons for such bans, some support for them certainly arises from anti-Muslim bigotry.

In recent years far-right, anti-immigrant parties have done alarmingly well across Europe. In Sweden, the nationalist Sweden Democrats entered parliament last month for the first time since the party's founding in 1988. In the United Kingdom, the far-right British National Party won nearly three times as many votes (563,000) in this year's parliamentary elections as in 2005; last year it won two seats in the European Parliament.

In Austria, the Freedom Party—formerly led by Joerg Haider, who had kind things to say of the Nazis—earned 17.5% of the vote in 2008. In France, the National Front party of Jean-Marie Le Pen, who questioned the existence of the Nazi gas chambers before conceding that they were a "detail" of World War II, came in second in the 2002 presidential election, earning a spot in a runoff with then-President Jacques Chirac.

And now the far right may be rising again in Germany, where stringent speech laws and parliamentary thresholds have long kept it out of the Bundestag. Recent polls cited by the German Press Agency estimate support for an anti-Muslim party at 20%, which would be enough to enter parliament.

"The fall of parliamentary seats into extremist hands represents the biggest shake-up in European politics since the disappearance of communism," wrote Denis MacShane recently in Newsweek. Mr. MacShane is a Labour member of the British Parliament who previously served as minister of state for Europe.

Europeans are leery not just of Muslim immigrants but of Jews, nearly exterminated on the continent 60 years ago. A recent Pew Global Attitudes poll found that nearly 50% of Spaniards have either a "very" or "somewhat unfavorable" opinion of Jews. The figures are 25% for Germans, 20% for French and 10% for British. This anti- Semitism was underscored by the recent assertion of European Union Trade Commissioner Karel De Gucht that "it is not easy to have, even with moderate Jews, a rational discussion about what is actually happening in the Middle East."

So when American liberals decry their conservative counterparts as bigots seeking to impose fascism on the U.S. (having failed to do so during two terms of the Bush administration), they ignore that part of the West where genuine nostalgia for fascism endures.

Anyone who has traveled throughout Europe knows that its image as an exemplar of progressivism, and ethnic and religious diversity, is a fabrication of the American liberal mind.

American liberals who ignore European bigotry while considering opposition to the Ground Zero mosque inexcusable bring to mind the mocking suggestion of German communist playwright Bertolt Brecht: "Would it not be easier in that case for the government to dissolve the people and elect another?"

Throughout the mosque debate, the vast majority of Americans showed themselves to be capable of respectful disagreement. It is Europeans, again, whose darker impulses we have to fear.

Mr. Kirchick is writer at large with Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty based in Prague, and a contributing editor of the New Republic.

[eduforever]

El Twitter también es una gran herramienta para invertir en la bolsa
11 de Octubre de 2010

LIMA.- Hay muchos negocios en internet para invertir en bolsa. Páginas webs de grandes grupos repletas de información y de indicadores actualizados a tiempo real. Pero Twitter es suficiente para poder sacar adelante unas inversiones rentables gracias a un buen número de aplicaciones, sitios y usuarios.
¿Ya leíste la Buena Noticia del día?
StockTwits, por ejemplo, es una comunidad de inversores online en la que los usuarios se registran con sus cuentas de Twitter para seguir las noticias relacionadas con la bolsa.
Este servicio ofrece tweets marcados con el símbolo del dólar por delante del indicador, por ejemplo: $GOOC. Y en junio de 2010, CNN Money y MarketWatch comenzaron a utilizar el servicio para sindicar tweets curados vía los widwets del website. En agosto, StockTwits se asoció con SecondMarket para hacer también el seguimiento a las acciones privadas.
FINIF Financial Informatics hago algo similar. Recopila informes de sentimiento a tiempo real de las sensaciones que transmiten los titulares de las noticias, Twitter y el SEC (US Securities and Exchange Commission).
FINIF escanea todos las actualizaciones recientes de Twitter que hacen referencia a un indicador de bolsa concreto y miden el sentimiento utilizando a lista de palabras personalizada para crear una «nota de sentimiento» para un valor determinado.
El trabajo sucio de recopilación siempre se le puede dejar a un agregador de tweets como Top Stock Tweets. Sin embargo, el posicionamiento de las referencias está pagado o, dicho de otro modo, lo que ofrece como más relevante son enlaces patrocinados, por lo que su fiabilidad queda en duda.
Por supuesto que siempre se puede realizar de forma personal el seguimiento a las cotizaciones a través de Twitter, recordando su denominación con el símbolo del dólar.
Hay miles de personas compartiendo sus conocimientos con todo tipo de opiniones, que después son completadas a través de entradas en blogs y otros foros populares y abiertos. Saber a quién seguir, qué listas crear y en quién confiar es la clave.
Fraude en la bolsa
No sólo las grandes compañías. También hay pequeños gurús independientes que crean sus centros de inversión basados en las redes sociales. Y algunos lo hacen para lograr fraudes del estilo «pump and dump».
Uno de esos casos se ha dado recientemente en Estados Unidos. La policía ha detenido a un grupo de 22 personas por estafar 7 millones de dólares en acciones especulativas. La mitad de ellos había utilizado páginas web, Twitter o Facebook para elevar el precio de paquetes de acciones que previamente habían adquirido a precios más bajos y así después venderlas con beneficio.
El riesgo de ser engañado por perfiles casi anónimos, que no representan a una institución, crece en estas circunstancias. Aunque en las inversiones fiarse de cualquiera puede ser desafortunado, porque aquí todo el mundo está por el interés. (Fuente ABC)

[admin]

Euro down 1.3834

Los futures del Dow Jones 42 puntos a la baja

Pfizer comprara Pharmaceuticals por $3.6 billones

Yields down 2.36%

Oil down 81.97, Au down 1.349.60, futures cu down 3.76

El dolar al alza, todo lo demas a la baja.

Europa a la baja, el Asia mixta.

[admin]

OPEC aumenta el estimado de demanda mundial.

Alibaba y Microsoft se unen en China.

El Nikkei cayo 2.1%

Indicadores tecnicos senialan que el dolar podria dar la vuelta y que el oro tiene sitio para bajar.

Las mineras lideran la caida en Europa.

[admin]

Copper October 12,08:19
Bid/Ask 3.7503 - 3.7517
Change -0.0524 -1.38%
Low/High 3.7336 - 3.8063
Charts

Nickel October 12,08:19
Bid/Ask 10.8401 - 10.8451
Change -0.2549 -2.30%
Low/High 10.7594 - 11.1857
Charts

Aluminum October 12,08:19
Bid/Ask 1.0729 - 1.0736
Change +0.0095 +0.90%
Low/High 1.0530 - 1.0800
Charts

Zinc October 12,08:19
Bid/Ask 1.0437 - 1.0443
Change -0.0095 -0.90%
Low/High 1.0415 - 1.0607
Charts

Lead October 12,08:19
Bid/Ask 1.0331 - 1.0337
Change -0.0145 -1.38%
Low/High 1.0310 - 1.0544