Miercoles 22/07/15, Indice de casas

[Fenix]

13:31 ¿El público siempre tiene razón?
Una encuesta de Gallup en 2011 mostraba que el 34% de los americanos pensaba que el oro sería la mejor inversor en el largo plazo. El 17% pensaba que serían las acciones.

Morgan Housel publica la evolución del S&P 500 y el oro desde entonces.

Compare los precios del oro y del S&P500 desde 2011 hasta la fecha

[Fenix]

14:07 United Technologies: el MACD se sitúa por debajo de su línea de señal
CMC Markets

[ UNITED TECHNOLOGIES ]
Punto de rotación se sitúa en 106.8.

Preferencia: la caída se mantiene siempre que la resistencia se sitúe en 106.8.

Escenario alternativo: por encima de 106.8, objetivo 109.4 y 110.8.

Técnicamente, el RSI (índice de fortaleza relativa) se sitúa por debajo de 30. El indicador de convergencia/divergencia de medias móviles (MACD) se sitúa por debajo de su línea de señal y es negativo.

Asimismo, la acción se sitúa por debajo de su media móvil de 20 y 50 días (se sitúa a 110.78 y 114.66 respectivamente). Finalmente, United Technologies se negocia por debajo de su banda inferior diaria de Bollinger (se sitúa en 105.69).

[Fenix]

Las 9 acciones más caras en Wall Street

Según los analistas de Goldman Sachs
Miércoles, 22 de Julio del 2015 - 14:32:00

Tras subir sólo 4 puntos en la primera mitad del año, el S&P 500 no ha sido exactamente una gran bendición para los inversores. David Kostin, de Goldman Sachs, piensa que el panorama es un poco más optimista. Proyecta una subida del 6% en el S&P 500 para el segundo semestre del año.

Sin embargo, también piensa que los mejores días para algunas acciones ya son cosa del pasado.

En un informe reciente, Kostin enumera las acciones más caras respecto a los objetivos de precios de Goldman Sachs. Estas son las 9 acciones más sobrevaloradas:

1. Transocean Ltd. Ticker: RIG. Sobrevaloración frente al precio objetivo:
2. Noble Corp. Ticker: NE. Sobrevaloración frente al precio objetivo: 38,3%

3. Celgene Corp. Ticker: CELG. Sobrevaloración frente al precio objetivo: 32,6%
4. Diamond Offshore Drilling, Ticker: DO. Sobrevaloración frente al precio objetivo: 30,3%
5. Gilead Sciences. Ticker: GILD. Sobrevaloración frente al precio objetivo: 28,3%
6. Sigma-Aldrich Corp. Ticker: SIAL. Sobrevaloración frente al precio objetivo: 28,2%
7. Expedia Inc. Ticker: EXPE. Sobrevaloración frente al precio objetivo: 25,0%
8. Intel Corp. Ticker: INTC. Sobrevaloración frente al precio objetivo: 24,4%
9. ¡mmm! Brands Inc. Ticker: YUM. Sobrevaloración frente al precio objetivo: 22,3%

[Fenix]

15:25 Oro contado. Por debajo de 1088, objetivo en 1068
Análisis técnico SEB
La acción del precio es todavía negativa y la pérdida reciente del soporte de 1088 abriría la puerta a un nuevo mínimo en 1068.

Los niveles de resistencia en 1110/14 pueden ser suficientes para abortar un test sobre las resistencias más importantes (antes soportes) en 1132 y 1143.

Resistencias 1110 1114 1126 1138
Soportes 1088 1085 ? 1068 1045


14:58 Índice Dólar . Volátil pero en tendencia
El dollar index dibujó ayer una vela bajista y cerró por debajo de la línea clavicular del doble suelo. El soporte está en 96.41, por donde pasa la línea de tendencia alcista.

Aparte de lo que parece ser una corrección de corto plazo, no se puede discutir la tendencia alcista por el momento.

El indice está haciendo desde mediados de junio máximos y mínimos cada vez más altos (el último mínimo fue 95,45).

El doble suelo debe seguir siendo el patrón dominante y marca un objetivo en los máximos de tendencia y después los 102.

[Fenix]

¿Por qué está subiendo el saldo en los fondos de inversión de la eurozona?

Miércoles, 22 de Julio del 2015 - 15:54:00

Son datos del ECB del mes de mayo. El saldo de los fondos de inversión del área (no monetarios) subió en mayo en 106 bn. hasta un total de 9.5 tr. ¿La razón? Compras más que revalorizaciones.

Como vemos en el siguiente cuadro, los fondos de dinero han registrado un descenso de 16 bn. hasta 1.0 tr.

En este otro cuadro podemos ver la evolución en mayo del patrimonio por tipo de fondo. En definitiva, subidas del 7.6 % en el de los fondos de renta fija (2.9 tr.), del 2.4 % para los de renta variable (2.8 tr.), más del 16.4 % de aumento en el caso de los fondos mixtos (2.5 tr. ).


Las mayores operaciones durante el periodo se centraron precisamente en estos últimos, por más de 40 bn. de EUR.

José Luis Martínez Campuzano
Estratega de Citi en España

[Fenix]

This Is The 'Thinnest' New High In Stock Market History
Submitted by Tyler D.
07/22/2015 - 15:00

When we noted the stock market’s weak internals yesterday, we weren’t sure if things could get any worse – and by how much – with the major averages still able to hold near 52-week highs. Well, the answers were “yes” and “a lot”... yesterday, July 20, 2015, was the thinnest new high on record in the U.S. stock market.


Nine Reasons Why Low Oil Prices May "Morph" Into Something Much Worse
Submitted by Tyler D.
07/22/2015 - 14:20

Why are commodity prices, including oil prices, lagging? Ultimately, it comes back to the question, “Why isn’t the world economy making very many of the end products that use these commodities?” If workers were getting rich enough to buy new homes and cars, demand for these products would be raising the prices of commodities used to build and operate cars, including the price of oil. If governments were rich enough to build an increasing number of roads and more public housing, there would be demand for the commodities used to build roads and public housing. It looks to me as though we are heading into a deflationary depression, because prices of commodities are falling below the cost of extraction. We need rapidly rising wages and debt if commodity prices are to rise back to 2011 levels or higher. This isn’t happening.



Forget Recession: According To Caterpillar There Is A Full-Blown Global Depression
Submitted by Tyler D.07/22/2015 - 14:14

There has now been an unprecedented 31 consecutive months of CAT retail sales declines. This compares to "only" 19 during the near systemic collapse in 2008. In other words, if global demand for heavy industrial machinery, as opposed to unemployed millennials' demands for $0.99 Apple apps, is any indication of the true underlying economy, forget recession: the world is now in a second great depression which is getting worse by the month.

[Fenix]

China's Record Dumping Of US Treasuries Leaves Goldman Speechless
Submitted by Tyler D.
07/22/2015 - 16:30

Something is very rotten in the state of China, and its crashing, manipulated stock market is merely the tip of the iceberg.


Kiwi Pops After RBNZ Cuts Rates, Citing Commodity Price Pressures
Submitted by Tyler D.
07/22/2015 - 17:12

While we know now that Greece is irrelevant, and China is irrelevant (fdrom what we are told by talking heads), it appears the commodity carnage of the last few months is relevant for at least one nation. Having already warned about Australia, it appears New Zealand has got nervous:

*NEW ZEALAND CUTS KEY INTEREST RATE TO 3.00% FROM 3.25%, FURTHER EASING LIKELY AT SOME POINT

The Central bank blames softening economic outlook driven by commodity price pressures. Kiwi interestingly popped on the news to 0.66 before fading back a little, despite RBNZ noting a further NZD drop is necessary.

[Fenix]

Subprime Auto Loan "Titan" Proclaims There's Nothing To Worry About
Submitted by Tyler D.
07/22/2015 - 13:00

"in the 1990s, subprime borrowers typically were offered four-year car loans... Now, the standard is six years, partly because wages haven’t kept up with vehicle prices... I think that’s a good thing,... Unfortunately it seems to be painted as something bad, and I’m not sure why.”



Retail Federation Slashes Sales Outlook By 15%, Blames "Deflationary Enviornment"
Submitted by Tyler D.
07/22/2015 - 12:25

Despite the absence of bad weather, good weather, port strikes, and snow, The National Retail Federation today slashed its retail sales forecast for 2015 from 4.1% growth to just 3.5%. Sales grew at a 2.9% pace in the first half of 2015 and hope remains that the next 5 months show growth of 3.7% (with same store sales growth revised lower). The excuse reason for this markdown..."spending has been hampered by lackluster growth in our economy. Much of that blame can be shifted to Washington where too much time has been spent crafting rules and regulations that almost guarantee negative consequences for consumers and American businesses alike."

[Fenix]

Perhaps It Wasn't Such A Good Idea To Leave The Fate Of The Tech Bubble In The Hands Of Apple
Tyler Durden's picture
Submitted by Tyler D07/22/2015 12:41 -0400


Just before the last AAPL earnings call, we showed something extraordinary: all of the tech sector's growth in Q1 was in the hands of just one company, Apple.


In other words, take Apple away, and the entire thesis for why "the tech bubble is different this time", namely companies that have rising profits, falls apart.

* * *

Fast forward to this quarter, when AAPL just reported earnings that as its stock price indicates, were clearly not in the sweet spot of "priced to perfection" market expectations, driven by weaker than expected iPhone sales, a slowdown in China (which took place before its stock market crashed), a warning that the strong dollar is now impacting AAPL profitability as well, virtually no color on iWatch sales, and finally concerns about the company's guidance.

But the reason why the tech sector may suddenly be getting cold feet about pinning the entire second tech bubble on AAPL, and make no mistake it is a bubble...

... is that as Factset reported, Apple is expected to be the largest contributor to earnings growth for the Information Technology sector for Q2 2015. The blended earnings growth rate (combines actual results for companies that have reported and estimated results for companies yet to report) for the Information Technology sector is 0.2%.

Exclude Apple, and the sector would report a year-over-year decline in earnings of 6.0%.



Which is why the response to all those who say S&P earnings are not negative if you exclude energy, is that if you exclude tumbling energy earnings but also exclude AAPL, S&P earnings are once again negative.

Now since AAPL beat consensus EPS just barely, it meant that this is the 4th consecutive quarter that Apple has been the largest contributor to earnings growth for the Information Technology sector!

And here why both AAPL and the Nasdaq are swooning: as we reported last night, it is all about iPhone sales, and these disappointed.

What is driving Apple’s substantial contribution to earnings growth for the Information Technology sector in recent quarters? The iPhone product segment has reported revenue growth in excess of 50% in the previous two quarters, and is projected to report revenue growth of 51% in Q2 2015. However, year-over-year comparisons for iPhone sales become more challenging in Q4 2015. Unlike the first three quarters of the year, the exclusion of Apple from the Information Technology sector is not predicted to cause a substantial decline in year-over-year earnings growth for the sector in the fourth quarter.

The WSJ adds some more dramatic statistics:

Apple has a big impact on the overall market as well. Since the third quarter of 2011, Apple, for every single quarter, has comprised no less than 3% of the S&P 500's operating earnings, according to data from S&P Dow Jones Indices. It accounted for 2.87% of the index's operating earnings of $25.29 in September 2011, and has ranged higher since then. In the first quarter of 2015, it comprised 5.97% of the $25.81 operating profit. In the fourth quarter of 2014, it was 7.62% of the $26.75 profit.



Think of its this way. If all 500 of the companies in the index contributed an even amount, Apple's earnings would account for about 0.2% of the overall profit. On the contrary, Apple is by far the single biggest contributor to the index's earnings. The next largest contributor is J.P. Morgan, which is contributed about half of that, at 64 cents. For comparison sake, this is what other tech names are contributing: Microsoft Inc. (estimated): 52 cents, IBM: 42 cents, Google Inc.: 38 cents; Cisco Systems Inc. (estimated): 32 cents, Intel Corp.: 32 cents.



The S&P 500 is expected to see second-quarter profits contract by about 3.5% from a year ago, according to data from FactSet. If Apple weren't part of that, the contraction would be significantly larger. Given its market-cap weighting, its contribution to the index's overall earnings--currently estimated at $28.53--will work out to about $1.17.



If you subtracted that contribution, just to show how much Apple matters, the earnings contraction would widen out to about 6.7%.

Here is the most stunning chart showing just how reliant on AAPL not only the tech sector is but the entire S&P:

And this is where China comes in. As we showed yesterday, while China sales rose solidly Y/Y, Q3 was the weakest quarter of fiscal 2015.

Much of this may be due to the iPhone new release cycle, but suddenly the biggest question mark is how will the crashing Chinese stock market impact local consumer end-demand: this is something neither AAPL management, nor Wall Street analysts had factored into their EPS or iPhone sales forecasts.

As we already know, the bursting bubble, which Beijing and the PBOC are scrambling with every passing day to keep alive, has already impacted housing (see China Stock Rout "Rocks" Property Market: "Massive" Cancellations Expected). How likely is it that general spending and retail sales will also be hammered?

And furthermore, the modest miss in iPhone sales happened in a quarter in which China had not yet seen the bursting of its stock bubble: the true collapse happened in just the last 4 days of June and onward in July, i.e., AAPL's last quarter. How "immodest" would it have been had the crash happened in June, or May, or April?

Which means that suddenly not only are Apple phone sales, but also all the hopes of a positive earnings growth in the Tech sector, as well as overall EPS growth for the S&P, pegged on one thing: whether the Chinese consumer will continue buying Apple products at a time when trillions in market cap, i.e., "wealth effect" was wiped out.

We don't know the answer, and neither does anyone else, but we have a very distinct feeling that the tech bubble, which is now reliant almost exclusively on AAPL to keep the "this time it's different" theme alive, is suddenly not all that excited that as its foundation it has an AAPL stock whose fate in turn is dependent on how well a centrally-planning communist party halfway around the globe can keep its own bubble growing in what everyone now admits is a quasi-nationalized "stock market."

The answer, when revealed in about three months, should result in some impressive volatility.

[Fenix]

Bonds Say Let The Rate Hikes Begin: 1Y Bills Sells At Highest Yield In 5 Years
Submitted by Tyler D.
07/22/2015 - 12:05

The US Treasury sold $25 billion of one-year T-bills at an interest rate of 33bps yesterday, the highest since June 2010. It appears the short-end of the yield curve is increasingly pricing in 'liftoff' sooner rather than later (and the long-end is responding by rallying - lower in yield - as medium term growth expectations fade) but it raises significant questions about the economic trajectory after the hike (and the ebbing confidence in The Fed).




In Case You Needed Any More Proof That There Is No Bond Market Liquidity Left...
Submitted by Tyler D.
07/22/2015 - 11:38

Here are just two anecdotes to confirm that not virtually nobody is left to trade bonds any more (as confirmed by the plunging FICC revenues reported by the big banks in Q2), but the reason for this is that there is no bond market liquidity left, a topic extensively covered here for the past 3 years.

[Fenix]

Existing Home Prices Hit Record; Sales Soar To 8 Year High
Submitted by Tyler D.
07/22/2015 - 10:13

Houses have become stocks... the higher the price, the more demand (especially as the government has your back with low down-payment loans and the re-emergence of IOs). With Existing Home Sales soaring to a SAAR of 5.49 million, the highest since early 2007, the fact that median home prices are at an all-time high appears to be any problem for the releveraging American (or Chinese) homebuyer.




Mind The Dow Divergence - Transports Are Signaling A Slump
Submitted by Tyler D.
07/22/2015 - 08:43

The US economy is widely seen as the world’s best performing major economy at the moment. However, so far this year most economic data have actually been somewhere between very soft and lackluster. The steep fall in truck tonnage is definitely an alarm signal. It indicates that inventories are already too high relative to demand, something that seems to be confirmed by recent industrial production and retail sales data. Given that tonnage has continued to decline since the end of Q1, one can no longer blame the port strikes either. To be sure, the US economy is not yet signaling an imminent recession. At best though it is muddling through at a very subdued pace. It probably won’t take much to push it over the edge.

[Fenix]

The Oldest Trick In The Accounting Book Is Back: How Coke Just "Beat" EPS Despite Sliding Revenues And Profit
Submitted by Tyler D.
07/22/2015 - 08:13

If KO had applied the proper tax rate of 28.7% to its non-GAAP pre tax income of $3.6 billion, the EPS number it would get is not $0.63, but $0.58. Why is this key? Because Wall Street's consensus estimate for KO EPS was $0.60, or right in the middle. And that, ladies and gentlemen, is how both Intel and now Coca Kola used the oldest trick in the accounting book to "beat" EPS: by using an unrealistically low tax rate.

[Fenix]

Apple, Microsoft Plunge Drags Global Markets Lower, Oil Resumes Slide
Submitted by Tyler D.
07/22/2015 - 06:52

While this week has been, and continues to be, devoid of macro updates, yesterday's flurry of mostly disappointing earnings releases both before and after the open, including some of the biggest DJIA companies as well as the current and previously biggest and most important companies in the world, AAPL and MSFT, both of which came crashing down following earnings and forecasts that were well short of market expectations, came as a jolt to a market that was artificially priced by central bank liquidity and HFT momo algos beyond perfection. Add to that yesterday's downward revision to historical industrial production which confirmed the US economy is a step away from recession, as well as last night's Crude API inventory build which is once again pressuring WTI lower and on the verge of a 49 handle, and perhaps the biggest question is why are futures not much lower.

[Fenix]

Gold Warns Again
Submitted by Tyler D.
07/21/2015 - 20:30

The action in gold in 2013 was a warning about the “dollar”, a warning that went completely unheeded yet has been largely fulfilled. Again, 2013 provides a guide as to why gold prices may be declining in sharp moves, especially right at the open or in weaker trading hours, and it has very little to do with interest rates apart from fixed income suggesting the same factors about the “dollar.” Whether it is growing unease about the global economic picture or the “sudden” recurrence of financial irregularity almost wherever you wish to gaze, the “dollar” is once more wreaking havoc. This isn’t controversial at all, but somehow economists can miss that gold is global and universal collateral and when the eurodollar system is stressed it becomes activated in that manner.



470,000 Vehicles At Risk After Hackers "Take Control & Crash" Jeep Cherokee From A Sofa 10 Miles Away
Submitted by Tyler D.
07/21/2015 - 19:30

In what is being called "the first of its kind," Wired.com reports that hackers, using just a laptop and mobile phone, accessed a Jeep Cherokee's on-board systems (via its wireless internet connection), took control and crashed the car into a ditch from 10 miles away sitting on their sofa. As The Telegraph details, the breach was revealed by security researchers Charlie Miller, a former staffer at the NSA, and Chris Valasek, who warned that more than 470,000 cars made by Fiat Chrysler could be at risk of being attacked by similar means. Coming just weeks after the FBI claimed a US hacker took control of a passenger jet he was on in the first known such incident of its kind, the incident shows just how vulnerable we are to modern technology.