The City Of London Has Turned Britain Into A "Civilized Mafia State"
Submitted by Tyler D.
09/10/2015 - 11:22
"Public services, infrastructure, the very fabric of the nation: these too are being converted into risk-free investments. Social cleansing is transforming central London into an exclusive economic zone for property speculation. From a dozen directions, government policy converges on this objective. Property in this country is a haven for the proceeds of international crime. Sometimes the UK looks to me like an ever so civilised mafia state."
Cultish Fervor - Japan Is In QE10 And Is Going Nowhere
Submitted by Tyler D.
09/10/2015 - 12:36
Since the “impossible” global panic in 2008, there have been 10 QE’s in Japan but using the numerical standard which has been applied to the Federal Reserve there may have been as many as 22 or more. What none of those have amounted to is an actual and sustainable economic advance; NONE, no matter how you count them. In very simple fact, the idea that central banks “need” to keep doing them in continuous fashion is quite convincing that at the very least they don’t mean what central bankers think they mean, and perhaps worse that the more they are done and to greater extents the more harm that eventually befalls.
Blistering Treasury Auction: Record Foreign Central Bank Demand For 30 Year Paper
Submitted by Tyler D.
09/10/2015 - 13:11
We had to triple check the Indirect print in today's 30Y auction, because at first it seemed the US Treasury had made a huge mistake, but the number showing that the Indirect take down in today's auction was a whopping 66% - this was the highest take down on record, and may have put an end to any concerns that foreign central banks have no interest in US paper, if only in the primary market.
Jueves 09/10/15 Precios de los exportadores e importadores
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Re: Jueves 09/10/15 Precios de los exportadores e importador
por Fenix » Jue Sep 10, 2015 8:03 pm
- Fenix
- Mensajes: 16334
- Registrado: Vie Abr 23, 2010 2:36 am
Re: Jueves 09/10/15 Precios de los exportadores e importador
por Fenix » Jue Sep 10, 2015 8:06 pm
US Imports Biggest "Disinflationary Impulse" In 6 Years At Worst Possible Time
Submitted by Tyler D.
09/10/2015 - 13:30
August's import prices dropped a stunning 11.4% YoY, the biggest drop since September 2009. This faster-than-expected deceleration suggests "another leg lower" according to TD's Millan Mulraine, as USD strength and renewed energy declines feed through the price channel and reverses a hope-filled mid-year drift higher. This is the 13th month of YoY drops (and 111th of last 12 MoM drops) flashing a recessionary warning. As Mulraine conculdes ominously, "coming at a time when the Fed is contemplating a lift-off in rates, the weak tone of this report should come as a key reminder that the dis-inflationary impulse is re- emerging."
Why Don't You Explain this To Me Like I'm 5...
09/10/2015 16:45 -0400
Submitted by Thad Beversdorf
Soc Gen’s global head of research, Patrick Legland, has gone on record, according to a MarketWatch article yesterday as saying that the selloff in developed equity markets has gone too far, and he provides reasons to support his claim. First, he suggests the Chinese market rout has further to go but believes the fallout will be limited to EM and commodities. Second, Legland believes that the US and other developed nations are protected by “well-armed central banks” evident by the 3.7% economic growth and the 5.1% unemployment rate and the Eurozone’s 3 year low unemployment. Lastly, he suggests that due to central banks having created a bond market bubble bonds are no longer a safe haven and thus no longer a viable alternative to equities. I will point out that Leon Cooperman also discussed on CNBC yesterday morning the fact that there are no viable alternatives to equities anymore and so equities remain in the secular bull.
Let me explain this to Legland like he is an 8 year old.
Ok like he’s 5.
While I admire Legland’s optimism I simply do not accept his claims. They are full of tragic flaws. Allow me to colour code this for all those market ‘pros’ and PhD ‘economists’ who haven’t been able to follow the premise over the past several months.
Screen Shot 2015-09-10 at 6.35.46 AM
The chart depicts that this rout has just begun. As EPS rolled over in the first half of this year, it signaled that ‘The Tide has Finally Turned‘ as I explained in a recent piece published Aug 2nd (just weeks before the selloff began). In that research piece I told readers to “prepare for an imminent equity valuation reset” and explained why it would occur. The above chart provides an explanation as if we are a 5 year old. You see a correction is not a one week market selloff that then allows for the algos to push markets to new all time highs. A correction implies there was a mistake that required fixing. The correction is market valuations coming into this year with unsustainable EPS growth projections.
Since ’08 growth in earnings has been attained in the absence of consumer demand and productivity. What that means is it must have come by way of cost cutting (i.e. operational contraction) and financial engineering (i.e. share buybacks and diverting capex to div payouts). While those are effective microeconomic strategies CEO’s use to defend market cap in the short term they don’t correct the macroeconomic issues that have made their implementation necessary. And so if the macroeconomic issues that have led to a collapse in demand don’t correct, EPS growth will.
Remember the only thing that can sustain growth in market valuations is sustainable growth in expected future cashflows, not short term spikes in EPS. The only stimuli that can sustain growth in expected future cashflows is growth in demand and/or growth in productivity, neither of which precipitated the extraordinary market valuation growth of the past 6 years. This necessarily means, as it has in every unwarranted market rise, that the spike in EPS would roll over as we’ve seen this year and continue to see today. And so the argument that P/E ratios are moderate relative to history isn’t a valid argument that they are sustainable. As EPS rolls over P/E ratios begin to spike requiring an equity valuation reset. The extent of the reset will be equitable to the size of the unsustainable EPS growth over the past 6 years. These are logical facts.
What the pundits, such as Legland, attempt to do is have you focus on the forest from an inch away.
Screen Shot 2015-09-10 at 7.02.32 AM
Looks pretty good eh, but if one were to step back a few hundred yards what we actually find is a dying forest.
Screen Shot 2015-09-10 at 7.06.28 AM
Let me show you the magic trick using economic data.
If we look at YoY GDP growth over a 12 month period this is what we see.
Screen Shot 2015-09-10 at 7.33.56 AM
Now most of us look at the relative levels and assume things look pretty stable. However, if we step back a little and look at the same thing, YoY GDP growth, but this time over a 60 year period, this is what we see.
Screen Shot 2015-09-10 at 7.42.09 AM
Now clearly we are in a secular deterioration of economic growth with the long term trendline now having moved under 2%, less than half of what it was in 1960. And perhaps more alarming is the rate of deceleration over the past 30 years. And don’t lose sight of the fact that the deceleration began subsequent to the US moving to a pure fiat currency in 1971.
But the point is that we don’t hear the Legland’s of the world ever discussing this secular deterioration and that is not a coincidence. The reason is that there is only one answer to this riddle. And the answer is not one that anyone will be happy to hear. So they prefer to have us all continue to admire the forest from an inch away and pretend that everything is as green as it always has been.
Now dear Mr. Legland (and Patrick I’m simply using you as a proxy for all those like you – i.e. the misguided), the reason that EPS growth cannot be sustainably positive, given the current macroeconomic fundamentals, is explained in the following chart.
Screen Shot 2015-09-10 at 8.36.48 AM
The above chart depicts the level of real median personal income as a percentage of real consumer debt outstanding per labor force capita (i.e. real median income as a percentage of real consumer debt per worker). The implication of the above chart is critical. Three things we can pull from it is that much of the (deteriorating) GDP growth we have achieved since the early 1980’s has come only from increased levels of real consumer debt per worker (i.e. boosting current GDP at the expense of medium and longterm GDP). The second is that the median real financial condition of workers has worsened significantly since the mid 1980’s. The third significant implication of the above chart is that growth in output, EPS, and standard of living will continue to decline until the above chart finds itself in a “Correction”.
We find something very interesting in this next chart.
Screen Shot 2015-09-10 at 10.12.16 AM
The above chart shows the rate on consumer credit (green line) against the median ability of each worker to pay down their consumer credit (blue line – from the previous chart). What we find is interesting because it is not intuitive. We would think as each worker’s ability to pay down debt worsens (declining blue line) that banks would require higher interest to offset the higher risk. So we would expect these two lines to move with negative correlation. But what we find is that they move together. This implies risk is being under priced. That is, risk is being priced at a level for which debt will be taken on rather than in accordance to the risk. When the price of risk can be raised it is until demand for debt declines due to workers worsening ability to pay off the debt, at which point interest rates are again lowered to again incentivize the taking of more debt.
Now the other place we see this is in US total public debt as I explained in a previous article called “Interest Rates Cannot Rise and Here’s Why“. Let’s have a look.
Screen Shot 2015-09-10 at 10.31.47 AM
The chart basically depicts that in order to allow for perpetually increasing debt it is necessary that the price of risk must come down, irrespective of the inherent risk fundamentals. So let me be clear here about the data, risk has been significantly under-priced and continues to be because the system itself (designed and controlled by bankers) is incentivized by perpetually increasing debt requiring the perpetual rolling over of more debt. The flaw in this system is it ensures that growth will deteriorate over time. The data on this is simply not arguable.
Now tying this all back to the market for Mr. Legland, what it means is that subsequent to this current cycle of equity valuation reset (i.e. major selloff), some fancy new strategy (Tech Bubble was direct capital injection to equities without regard to current earnings, Credit Bubble was consumer debt fueled earnings, Credit Bubble 2.0 is operational contraction fueled earnings) will have to be implemented to again provide a mirage for investors to once again overvalue equities in the short term before that next bubble’s valuation reset. While these bubbles provide a mirage of stability in the short term they do not correct and thus exacerbate growth’s long term deterioration. That is, continuing these bubbles that we’ve seen over the past 15 years will create extraordinary compounding wealth over very short cycles for less than 1% of the population but will severely punish 90% of households over generations.
The point that I hope is sinking in is that until the incentives of capital allocation between labour and profit is corrected via intelligent policies and until the monetary system itself, which is predicated on the perpetual expansion of money supply (and thus debt) to enable banks to grow profits is corrected there can be no sustainable operational and EPS growth. And this means no sustainable growth in market valuations (bad for long term investors).
But if no new fancy strategy can be found (touch wood) after this current market repricing ends (still many, many months away) to create that mirage of valuation growth well then perhaps we can finally begin to work on the only correct “Correction”; the policies and thus the policymakers themselves. But understand the reigning lion does not give up his pride easily. One must challenge the reigning lion and then be prepared to fight to overcome such (a) pride.
Submitted by Tyler D.
09/10/2015 - 13:30
August's import prices dropped a stunning 11.4% YoY, the biggest drop since September 2009. This faster-than-expected deceleration suggests "another leg lower" according to TD's Millan Mulraine, as USD strength and renewed energy declines feed through the price channel and reverses a hope-filled mid-year drift higher. This is the 13th month of YoY drops (and 111th of last 12 MoM drops) flashing a recessionary warning. As Mulraine conculdes ominously, "coming at a time when the Fed is contemplating a lift-off in rates, the weak tone of this report should come as a key reminder that the dis-inflationary impulse is re- emerging."
Why Don't You Explain this To Me Like I'm 5...
09/10/2015 16:45 -0400
Submitted by Thad Beversdorf
Soc Gen’s global head of research, Patrick Legland, has gone on record, according to a MarketWatch article yesterday as saying that the selloff in developed equity markets has gone too far, and he provides reasons to support his claim. First, he suggests the Chinese market rout has further to go but believes the fallout will be limited to EM and commodities. Second, Legland believes that the US and other developed nations are protected by “well-armed central banks” evident by the 3.7% economic growth and the 5.1% unemployment rate and the Eurozone’s 3 year low unemployment. Lastly, he suggests that due to central banks having created a bond market bubble bonds are no longer a safe haven and thus no longer a viable alternative to equities. I will point out that Leon Cooperman also discussed on CNBC yesterday morning the fact that there are no viable alternatives to equities anymore and so equities remain in the secular bull.
Let me explain this to Legland like he is an 8 year old.
Ok like he’s 5.
While I admire Legland’s optimism I simply do not accept his claims. They are full of tragic flaws. Allow me to colour code this for all those market ‘pros’ and PhD ‘economists’ who haven’t been able to follow the premise over the past several months.
Screen Shot 2015-09-10 at 6.35.46 AM
The chart depicts that this rout has just begun. As EPS rolled over in the first half of this year, it signaled that ‘The Tide has Finally Turned‘ as I explained in a recent piece published Aug 2nd (just weeks before the selloff began). In that research piece I told readers to “prepare for an imminent equity valuation reset” and explained why it would occur. The above chart provides an explanation as if we are a 5 year old. You see a correction is not a one week market selloff that then allows for the algos to push markets to new all time highs. A correction implies there was a mistake that required fixing. The correction is market valuations coming into this year with unsustainable EPS growth projections.
Since ’08 growth in earnings has been attained in the absence of consumer demand and productivity. What that means is it must have come by way of cost cutting (i.e. operational contraction) and financial engineering (i.e. share buybacks and diverting capex to div payouts). While those are effective microeconomic strategies CEO’s use to defend market cap in the short term they don’t correct the macroeconomic issues that have made their implementation necessary. And so if the macroeconomic issues that have led to a collapse in demand don’t correct, EPS growth will.
Remember the only thing that can sustain growth in market valuations is sustainable growth in expected future cashflows, not short term spikes in EPS. The only stimuli that can sustain growth in expected future cashflows is growth in demand and/or growth in productivity, neither of which precipitated the extraordinary market valuation growth of the past 6 years. This necessarily means, as it has in every unwarranted market rise, that the spike in EPS would roll over as we’ve seen this year and continue to see today. And so the argument that P/E ratios are moderate relative to history isn’t a valid argument that they are sustainable. As EPS rolls over P/E ratios begin to spike requiring an equity valuation reset. The extent of the reset will be equitable to the size of the unsustainable EPS growth over the past 6 years. These are logical facts.
What the pundits, such as Legland, attempt to do is have you focus on the forest from an inch away.
Screen Shot 2015-09-10 at 7.02.32 AM
Looks pretty good eh, but if one were to step back a few hundred yards what we actually find is a dying forest.
Screen Shot 2015-09-10 at 7.06.28 AM
Let me show you the magic trick using economic data.
If we look at YoY GDP growth over a 12 month period this is what we see.
Screen Shot 2015-09-10 at 7.33.56 AM
Now most of us look at the relative levels and assume things look pretty stable. However, if we step back a little and look at the same thing, YoY GDP growth, but this time over a 60 year period, this is what we see.
Screen Shot 2015-09-10 at 7.42.09 AM
Now clearly we are in a secular deterioration of economic growth with the long term trendline now having moved under 2%, less than half of what it was in 1960. And perhaps more alarming is the rate of deceleration over the past 30 years. And don’t lose sight of the fact that the deceleration began subsequent to the US moving to a pure fiat currency in 1971.
But the point is that we don’t hear the Legland’s of the world ever discussing this secular deterioration and that is not a coincidence. The reason is that there is only one answer to this riddle. And the answer is not one that anyone will be happy to hear. So they prefer to have us all continue to admire the forest from an inch away and pretend that everything is as green as it always has been.
Now dear Mr. Legland (and Patrick I’m simply using you as a proxy for all those like you – i.e. the misguided), the reason that EPS growth cannot be sustainably positive, given the current macroeconomic fundamentals, is explained in the following chart.
Screen Shot 2015-09-10 at 8.36.48 AM
The above chart depicts the level of real median personal income as a percentage of real consumer debt outstanding per labor force capita (i.e. real median income as a percentage of real consumer debt per worker). The implication of the above chart is critical. Three things we can pull from it is that much of the (deteriorating) GDP growth we have achieved since the early 1980’s has come only from increased levels of real consumer debt per worker (i.e. boosting current GDP at the expense of medium and longterm GDP). The second is that the median real financial condition of workers has worsened significantly since the mid 1980’s. The third significant implication of the above chart is that growth in output, EPS, and standard of living will continue to decline until the above chart finds itself in a “Correction”.
We find something very interesting in this next chart.
Screen Shot 2015-09-10 at 10.12.16 AM
The above chart shows the rate on consumer credit (green line) against the median ability of each worker to pay down their consumer credit (blue line – from the previous chart). What we find is interesting because it is not intuitive. We would think as each worker’s ability to pay down debt worsens (declining blue line) that banks would require higher interest to offset the higher risk. So we would expect these two lines to move with negative correlation. But what we find is that they move together. This implies risk is being under priced. That is, risk is being priced at a level for which debt will be taken on rather than in accordance to the risk. When the price of risk can be raised it is until demand for debt declines due to workers worsening ability to pay off the debt, at which point interest rates are again lowered to again incentivize the taking of more debt.
Now the other place we see this is in US total public debt as I explained in a previous article called “Interest Rates Cannot Rise and Here’s Why“. Let’s have a look.
Screen Shot 2015-09-10 at 10.31.47 AM
The chart basically depicts that in order to allow for perpetually increasing debt it is necessary that the price of risk must come down, irrespective of the inherent risk fundamentals. So let me be clear here about the data, risk has been significantly under-priced and continues to be because the system itself (designed and controlled by bankers) is incentivized by perpetually increasing debt requiring the perpetual rolling over of more debt. The flaw in this system is it ensures that growth will deteriorate over time. The data on this is simply not arguable.
Now tying this all back to the market for Mr. Legland, what it means is that subsequent to this current cycle of equity valuation reset (i.e. major selloff), some fancy new strategy (Tech Bubble was direct capital injection to equities without regard to current earnings, Credit Bubble was consumer debt fueled earnings, Credit Bubble 2.0 is operational contraction fueled earnings) will have to be implemented to again provide a mirage for investors to once again overvalue equities in the short term before that next bubble’s valuation reset. While these bubbles provide a mirage of stability in the short term they do not correct and thus exacerbate growth’s long term deterioration. That is, continuing these bubbles that we’ve seen over the past 15 years will create extraordinary compounding wealth over very short cycles for less than 1% of the population but will severely punish 90% of households over generations.
The point that I hope is sinking in is that until the incentives of capital allocation between labour and profit is corrected via intelligent policies and until the monetary system itself, which is predicated on the perpetual expansion of money supply (and thus debt) to enable banks to grow profits is corrected there can be no sustainable operational and EPS growth. And this means no sustainable growth in market valuations (bad for long term investors).
But if no new fancy strategy can be found (touch wood) after this current market repricing ends (still many, many months away) to create that mirage of valuation growth well then perhaps we can finally begin to work on the only correct “Correction”; the policies and thus the policymakers themselves. But understand the reigning lion does not give up his pride easily. One must challenge the reigning lion and then be prepared to fight to overcome such (a) pride.
- Fenix
- Mensajes: 16334
- Registrado: Vie Abr 23, 2010 2:36 am
Re: Jueves 09/10/15 Precios de los exportadores e importador
por Fenix » Jue Sep 10, 2015 8:08 pm
Avon Rips Higher, Halted Twice As Another LBO Rumor Squeezes Shorts
Submitted by Tyler D.
09/10/2015 - 14:03
Just 4 short months ago, Avon stock soared after a fake private equity offer from a fake entity appeared. With a 20% short base, the stock exploded higher. Today, with 17.4% of the stocks' float short, The Wall Street Journal sparks some panic-buying...
*AVON HALTED; DISCUSSES STAKE SALE WITH PE FIRMS, WSJ REPORTS
Avon has now been halted twice and is trading up 12% (before re-opening). It appears our observation that AVP has a Debt-to-Ebitda of a stunning 3.7x that has blown away hope/hype of the LBO copming to fruition... AVP is fading fast.
Competing Gas Pipelines Are Fueling The Syrian War & Migrant Crisis
Submitted by Tyler D.
09/10/2015 - 14:42
Don’t let anyone fool you: As we have detailed since 2013, sectarian strife in Syria has been engineered to provide cover for a war for access to oil and gas, and the power and money that come along with it.
Submitted by Tyler D.
09/10/2015 - 14:03
Just 4 short months ago, Avon stock soared after a fake private equity offer from a fake entity appeared. With a 20% short base, the stock exploded higher. Today, with 17.4% of the stocks' float short, The Wall Street Journal sparks some panic-buying...
*AVON HALTED; DISCUSSES STAKE SALE WITH PE FIRMS, WSJ REPORTS
Avon has now been halted twice and is trading up 12% (before re-opening). It appears our observation that AVP has a Debt-to-Ebitda of a stunning 3.7x that has blown away hope/hype of the LBO copming to fruition... AVP is fading fast.
Competing Gas Pipelines Are Fueling The Syrian War & Migrant Crisis
Submitted by Tyler D.
09/10/2015 - 14:42
Don’t let anyone fool you: As we have detailed since 2013, sectarian strife in Syria has been engineered to provide cover for a war for access to oil and gas, and the power and money that come along with it.
- Fenix
- Mensajes: 16334
- Registrado: Vie Abr 23, 2010 2:36 am
Re: Jueves 09/10/15 Precios de los exportadores e importador
por Fenix » Jue Sep 10, 2015 8:10 pm
Elderly Americans' Confidence Collapses To 11-Month Lows (As Middle-Aged Hope Surges)
Submitted by Tyler D.
09/10/2015 - 14:55
Amid the turmoil of the markets, it appears that older Americans (those over 65 years old) are the most negatively affected as their "comfort" has collapsed to 11-month lows. Oddly, perhaps thanks to lower gas prices or simple Schdenfreude for not being as neck-deep invested in stocks as the older-generations, middle-aged Americans (from 35-44) have seen a resurgence in confidence (now at 4-month highs).
Austrian Central Bank Warns Fed, "Rate Hikes Will Slow Global Growth"
Submitted by Tyler D.
09/10/2015 - 15:40
Market participants, be they lenders or borrowers, know that “easy money” has an expiry date. If The FOMC raises rates, "we foresee negative effects on world GDP in the medium term, not only for emerging markets but also for industrialized economies." In other words, though emerging markets – through their dependence on capital inflows – will be at risk when America’s monetary policy eventually returns to “normal,” the same will be true for advanced economies.
Iran Cuts Crude 'Selling Price' To Asia To 3-Year Low
Submitted by Tyler D.
09/10/2015 - 18:17
In what appears to be a bid to lure Asian buyers to lock in longer-term supplies, Reuters reports that Iran has cut its quarterly selling price (for its flagship 'light' crude) to its lowest (relative to Saudi) since Q4 2012. According to recent tanker loading data, Iran's oil sales in September are set to hit a six-month low, and this price reduction is just one of the steps taken by the OPEC producer to ramp up output and regain market share lost since U.S. and European sanctions aimed at its nuclear program cut its crude oil exports by more than half.
Submitted by Tyler D.
09/10/2015 - 14:55
Amid the turmoil of the markets, it appears that older Americans (those over 65 years old) are the most negatively affected as their "comfort" has collapsed to 11-month lows. Oddly, perhaps thanks to lower gas prices or simple Schdenfreude for not being as neck-deep invested in stocks as the older-generations, middle-aged Americans (from 35-44) have seen a resurgence in confidence (now at 4-month highs).
Austrian Central Bank Warns Fed, "Rate Hikes Will Slow Global Growth"
Submitted by Tyler D.
09/10/2015 - 15:40
Market participants, be they lenders or borrowers, know that “easy money” has an expiry date. If The FOMC raises rates, "we foresee negative effects on world GDP in the medium term, not only for emerging markets but also for industrialized economies." In other words, though emerging markets – through their dependence on capital inflows – will be at risk when America’s monetary policy eventually returns to “normal,” the same will be true for advanced economies.
Iran Cuts Crude 'Selling Price' To Asia To 3-Year Low
Submitted by Tyler D.
09/10/2015 - 18:17
In what appears to be a bid to lure Asian buyers to lock in longer-term supplies, Reuters reports that Iran has cut its quarterly selling price (for its flagship 'light' crude) to its lowest (relative to Saudi) since Q4 2012. According to recent tanker loading data, Iran's oil sales in September are set to hit a six-month low, and this price reduction is just one of the steps taken by the OPEC producer to ramp up output and regain market share lost since U.S. and European sanctions aimed at its nuclear program cut its crude oil exports by more than half.
- Fenix
- Mensajes: 16334
- Registrado: Vie Abr 23, 2010 2:36 am
Re: Jueves 09/10/15 Precios de los exportadores e importador
por Fenix » Jue Sep 10, 2015 8:12 pm
Is This The Start Of India's Gold Confiscation
Submitted by Tyler D.
09/10/2015 - 15:43
On April 5, 1933, FDR signed Executive order 6102 which made illegal "the Hoarding of gold coin, gold bullion, and gold certificates within the continental United States" in the process criminalizing the possession of monetary gold by any individual or corporation. Fast forward 82 years to a time when the barbarous relic continues to be seen as the safest store of value among India's vast population (roughly 20% of the world's total), not to mention the main source of financial headaches for local authorities, one of the biggest importers of gold due to its "traditional" values , that the Indian government may be preparing to pull a page right out of the FDR playbook.
"If It Bleeds, We Can Kill It" - Top Performing Hedge Fund Manager Compares China To The Predator
Submitted by Tyler D.
09/10/2015 - 18:20
"Being bearish on China for the last few years has reminded me of the 1987 action classic "Predator". For bears, much like the alien in Predator, the Chinese government has continually used special abilities that were previously unknown. Bearish investors in China had been picked off relentlessly and seemingly effortlessly by the government and the central bank. But then just as suddenly, the stock market started to sell off and the pressure on the currency began to build. This led to the small devaluation we saw in the Renminbi in August."
Submitted by Tyler D.
09/10/2015 - 15:43
On April 5, 1933, FDR signed Executive order 6102 which made illegal "the Hoarding of gold coin, gold bullion, and gold certificates within the continental United States" in the process criminalizing the possession of monetary gold by any individual or corporation. Fast forward 82 years to a time when the barbarous relic continues to be seen as the safest store of value among India's vast population (roughly 20% of the world's total), not to mention the main source of financial headaches for local authorities, one of the biggest importers of gold due to its "traditional" values , that the Indian government may be preparing to pull a page right out of the FDR playbook.
"If It Bleeds, We Can Kill It" - Top Performing Hedge Fund Manager Compares China To The Predator
Submitted by Tyler D.
09/10/2015 - 18:20
"Being bearish on China for the last few years has reminded me of the 1987 action classic "Predator". For bears, much like the alien in Predator, the Chinese government has continually used special abilities that were previously unknown. Bearish investors in China had been picked off relentlessly and seemingly effortlessly by the government and the central bank. But then just as suddenly, the stock market started to sell off and the pressure on the currency began to build. This led to the small devaluation we saw in the Renminbi in August."
- Fenix
- Mensajes: 16334
- Registrado: Vie Abr 23, 2010 2:36 am
Re: Jueves 09/10/15 Precios de los exportadores e importador
por Fenix » Jue Sep 10, 2015 8:16 pm
The UN's "Sustainable Development Agenda" Is Basically A Giant Corporatist Fraud
Submitted by Tyler D.
09/10/2015 - 19:15
On September 25th, Pope Francis will address the United Nations General Assembly in New York City. To much fanfare, the Pope will celebrate the unveiling of the UN’s Sustainable Development Agenda 2030. A key plank of this agenda relates to the UN’s “Sustainable Development Goals,” or SDGs. While this sounds all warm and fuzzy, several well meaning participants have become horrified by the extent to which multi-national corporations have influenced the entire process. So much so, that insiders are claiming the UN is actually marginalizing the very people it claims to be saving. The poor, the weak, and the voiceless.
Presenting 3 Chinese "Endgame Scenarios"
Tyler D
09/10/2015 19:40 -0400
As we’ve tried to make abundantly clear in the wake of China’s adoption of a new currency regime in August, Beijing’s attempt to strike some kind of illusory compromise between a free floating currency and a currency that’s completely controlled by the PBoC was doomed from the word go. “Whereas the daily fix was previously used to fix the spot rate, the PBoC now seemingly fixes the spot rate to determine the daily fix, [thus] the role of the market in determining the exchange rate has, if anything, been reduced in the short term,” BNP’s Mole Hau wrote last month, and as we said then, less of a role for the market means more of a role for the PBoC and that, in turn, means burning through FX reserves.
Complicating the situation further is the fact that FX reserve drawdowns work at cross purposes with RRR cuts by sucking liquidity from the market meaning each intervention necessitates some manner of short-term liquidity injection (e.g. reverse repos, etc.) or else more RRR cuts.
Of course policy rate cuts and liquidity injections are seen by the market for what they are: attempts to ease. And unfortunately for China, that’s true whether or not the net effect of the push and pull on money markets is easing or not, and that perception on the part of the market leads to downward pressure on the yuan at which point the entire thing starts over again in a nightmarish, FX reserve-depleting circle.
Add in stepped up efforts to close the gap between the onshore and offshore spot and you have yourself a rather untenable situation and as with all things untenable, there will, sooner or later, be an endgame.
Against this backdrop, we present Daiwa’s list of China’s three possible endgame scenarios (via Bloomberg):
China’s balance sheet under serious contractionary pressure as money leaves and Fed decision looms, resulting in three endgame scenarios, Daiwa analysts Kevin Lai and Junjie Tang write in note dated Sept. 9.
* Scenario 1: PBOC actively intervenes by selling FX reserves to support CNY; a painful credit crunch ensues; companies come under pressure to liquidate assets to pay debts in classic case of “debt deflation”
* Scenario 2: Govt. stops FX intervention and prints massive amounts of money; interest rates and reserve ratio potentially slashed; moves put significant downward pressure on CNY and implications of a currency crisis would be global
* Scenario 3: China muddles through between scenarios 1 and 2, where PBOC tries to manage an “orderly” downward adjustment for CNY; stimulus wouldn’t ultimately be large enough to have any meaningful impact
So the commentary on Scenario 1 there seems to suggest that ultimately, China will not be able to wholly or effectively offset the liquidity crunch caused by the FX reserve burn, triggering a contractionary nightmare. Scenario 2 looks like a rehash of Citi's recent suggestion, which for those who missed it (or for anyone in need of some Thursday comic relief), was this:
As regards funding the fiscal stimulus, only the central government has the deep pockets to do this on any significant scale. The first-best would be for the central government to issue bonds to fund this fiscal stimulus and for the PBOC to buy them and either hold them forever or cancel them, with the PBOC monetizing these Treasury bond purchases. Such a ‘helicopter money drop’ is fiscally, financially and macro-economically prudent in current circumstances, with inflation well below target and likely to fall further.
Scenario 3 is probably what will end up playing out, but frankly, it's not entirely clear that 3 is that much different from 1, because as we noted at the outset, the market doesn't like the whole "orderly downward adjustment" idea, precisely because it telegraphs further devaluation which leads traders to speculate on more yuan weakness and that speculation necessitates more reserve liquidations.
In short, the only "scenario" that doesn't result in an "endgame" is for everything to suddenly be fixed overnight, or, as SocGen recently put it, "for the RMB to appreciate compared to its current value will require a very positive environment for EM coupled with a cessation of capital outflows and a vibrant cyclical growth and an export recovery." That, obviously, is laughable so all we can say to the PBoC (and also to the Fed, who must consider all of the above when weighing liftoff) is "good luck."
Submitted by Tyler D.
09/10/2015 - 19:15
On September 25th, Pope Francis will address the United Nations General Assembly in New York City. To much fanfare, the Pope will celebrate the unveiling of the UN’s Sustainable Development Agenda 2030. A key plank of this agenda relates to the UN’s “Sustainable Development Goals,” or SDGs. While this sounds all warm and fuzzy, several well meaning participants have become horrified by the extent to which multi-national corporations have influenced the entire process. So much so, that insiders are claiming the UN is actually marginalizing the very people it claims to be saving. The poor, the weak, and the voiceless.
Presenting 3 Chinese "Endgame Scenarios"
Tyler D
09/10/2015 19:40 -0400
As we’ve tried to make abundantly clear in the wake of China’s adoption of a new currency regime in August, Beijing’s attempt to strike some kind of illusory compromise between a free floating currency and a currency that’s completely controlled by the PBoC was doomed from the word go. “Whereas the daily fix was previously used to fix the spot rate, the PBoC now seemingly fixes the spot rate to determine the daily fix, [thus] the role of the market in determining the exchange rate has, if anything, been reduced in the short term,” BNP’s Mole Hau wrote last month, and as we said then, less of a role for the market means more of a role for the PBoC and that, in turn, means burning through FX reserves.
Complicating the situation further is the fact that FX reserve drawdowns work at cross purposes with RRR cuts by sucking liquidity from the market meaning each intervention necessitates some manner of short-term liquidity injection (e.g. reverse repos, etc.) or else more RRR cuts.
Of course policy rate cuts and liquidity injections are seen by the market for what they are: attempts to ease. And unfortunately for China, that’s true whether or not the net effect of the push and pull on money markets is easing or not, and that perception on the part of the market leads to downward pressure on the yuan at which point the entire thing starts over again in a nightmarish, FX reserve-depleting circle.
Add in stepped up efforts to close the gap between the onshore and offshore spot and you have yourself a rather untenable situation and as with all things untenable, there will, sooner or later, be an endgame.
Against this backdrop, we present Daiwa’s list of China’s three possible endgame scenarios (via Bloomberg):
China’s balance sheet under serious contractionary pressure as money leaves and Fed decision looms, resulting in three endgame scenarios, Daiwa analysts Kevin Lai and Junjie Tang write in note dated Sept. 9.
* Scenario 1: PBOC actively intervenes by selling FX reserves to support CNY; a painful credit crunch ensues; companies come under pressure to liquidate assets to pay debts in classic case of “debt deflation”
* Scenario 2: Govt. stops FX intervention and prints massive amounts of money; interest rates and reserve ratio potentially slashed; moves put significant downward pressure on CNY and implications of a currency crisis would be global
* Scenario 3: China muddles through between scenarios 1 and 2, where PBOC tries to manage an “orderly” downward adjustment for CNY; stimulus wouldn’t ultimately be large enough to have any meaningful impact
So the commentary on Scenario 1 there seems to suggest that ultimately, China will not be able to wholly or effectively offset the liquidity crunch caused by the FX reserve burn, triggering a contractionary nightmare. Scenario 2 looks like a rehash of Citi's recent suggestion, which for those who missed it (or for anyone in need of some Thursday comic relief), was this:
As regards funding the fiscal stimulus, only the central government has the deep pockets to do this on any significant scale. The first-best would be for the central government to issue bonds to fund this fiscal stimulus and for the PBOC to buy them and either hold them forever or cancel them, with the PBOC monetizing these Treasury bond purchases. Such a ‘helicopter money drop’ is fiscally, financially and macro-economically prudent in current circumstances, with inflation well below target and likely to fall further.
Scenario 3 is probably what will end up playing out, but frankly, it's not entirely clear that 3 is that much different from 1, because as we noted at the outset, the market doesn't like the whole "orderly downward adjustment" idea, precisely because it telegraphs further devaluation which leads traders to speculate on more yuan weakness and that speculation necessitates more reserve liquidations.
In short, the only "scenario" that doesn't result in an "endgame" is for everything to suddenly be fixed overnight, or, as SocGen recently put it, "for the RMB to appreciate compared to its current value will require a very positive environment for EM coupled with a cessation of capital outflows and a vibrant cyclical growth and an export recovery." That, obviously, is laughable so all we can say to the PBoC (and also to the Fed, who must consider all of the above when weighing liftoff) is "good luck."
- Fenix
- Mensajes: 16334
- Registrado: Vie Abr 23, 2010 2:36 am
Re: Jueves 09/10/15 Precios de los exportadores e importador
por Fenix » Jue Sep 10, 2015 8:18 pm
Nomi Prins: Mexico, The Fed, & Counterparty Risk Concerns
Submitted by Tyler D.
09/10/2015 - 20:05
This level of global inter-connected financial risk is hazardous in Mexico, where it’s peppered by high bank concentration risk. No one wants another major financial crisis. Yet, that’s where we are headed absent major reconstructions of the banking framework and the central bank policies that exude extreme power over global economies and markets, in the US, Mexico, and throughout the world. Mexico’s problems could again ripple through Latin America where eroding confidence, volatility, and US dollar strength are already hurting economies and markets. The difference is that now, in contrast to the 1980s and 1990s debt crises, loan and bond amounts have not just been extended by private banks, but subsidized by the Fed and the ECB. The risk platform is elevated. The fall, for both Mexico and its trading partners like the US, likely much harder.
What Bubble? 6 Castles That Are Cheaper To Rent Than An Apartment In NYC Or SF
Submitted by Tyler D.
09/10/2015 18:50 -0400
As we have noted numerous times in the past, there is a Bull market in serfdom.
Screen Shot 2015-08-13 at 10.47.36 AM
America's Renter Nation has never spent more of its paycheck on rent and as Zumper notes, with rent prices in San Francisco and New York at the highest in the nation, affordability does not seem to exist in these two metropolitan areas. For some idea of the scale, there are actually castles in France and Italy that can be rented for about the same price as average apartments in these cities...
All of the castles on this list have at least five bedrooms (one has eleven), while the correspondingly priced apartments in San Francisco or New York range from a studio with a murphy bed to a four bedroom.
1. Antic Castle, Tuscany, Italy- 11 bed, 11 bath, $4,040/month
Nestled on a private hill and surrounded by trees and vineyards, this massive eleven bed castle can comfortably house up to twenty five guests. Built in the Middle Ages, this former aristocratic residence has been renovated to include modern day luxuries such as air conditioning, central heating, and satellite television. However, the 17th century stone fireplaces and beautiful terracotta floors still exude a warm, historical charm.
antic3
antic2
antic
Or you can rent…
Stuyvesant Town, New York City, NY- 2 bed, 1 bath, $4,000/month
Newly renovated, this contemporary two bedroom apartment has spacious bedrooms with generous closets, an adorable kitchen with modern appliances, and a stylish bathroom with a sparkling tub. Along with concierge service, this apartment building also comes with a fitness center, residents lounge, and on-site laundry. Having twenty five guests may be a little tight, however.
coop
coop3
coop2
2. Chateau Le Mur, Comblessac, France- 8 bed, 5 bath, $2,800/month
Sitting on 180 acres, this fifteenth century, eight bedroom castle is immense and fit for royalty. You can take in the stunning views of the scenic dairy farms nearby from the balcony or sunbathe in the bountiful garden. Inside, there are multiple, large fireplaces, medieval themed kitchens, and a knight’s armor at the door to greet you.
mur
mur2
mur3
Or you can rent…
Upper East Side, New York City, NY – 2 bed, 1 bath, $2,995/month
Recently renovated, this cozy two bedroom apartment has glossy hardwood floors, new fixtures, and a minimalist kitchen. The bedrooms are compact, but with large windows to let in an abundance of natural light, the rooms feel much bigger than they are.
east2
east3
east
3. Chateau Arfeuilles, Region Auvergne, France- 6 bed, 3 bath, $6,525/month
Sophisticated and elegant, this six bed castle has been carefully decorated so each room is unique but the entire interior still exudes a tasteful charm throughout. The kitchen is fully equipped with modern appliances, there are two living rooms, one with a television, and every bedroom has a chandelier hanging from the ceiling. If you want to enjoy the sun, you can bask by the pool or lounge in one of the terraces.
arf
arf2
arf3
Or you can rent…
Hell’s Kitchen, New York City, NY- 4 bed, 2 bath, $6,700/month
In a brand new building, this stylish four bedroom apartment has shiny oak floors throughout, a natural calacatta marble backsplash in the kitchen, and porcelain walls in the shower. There is a large rooftop sun deck, private storage available, and 24/7 security in the lobby.
hk
hk2
hk3
4. Ringuette, Region Aquitaine, France- 7 bed, 2 bath, $2,925/month
On a piece of land that covers over 200 acres, this magnificent seven bed castle can accommodate up to twelve people. The spacious kitchen has a wood stove and the living room has a large fireplace. Outside, there is a lush, walled garden covered with vines and flowers, a private swimming pool, and a beautiful courtyard formed by the structures of the castle.
ring3
ring2
ring
Or you can rent…
Lower Haight, San Francisco, CA- Studio, 1 bath, $3,000/month
With just over 400 square feet, this snug studio apartment comes fully furnished with designer fittings. If you wanted to entertain guests, the Becker Murphy bed can be lifted up and hidden away. The kitchen has modern appliances and the bathroom comes with a tub. Some building amenities include a fitness center and a landscaped roof deck.
lh
lh2
lh3
5. Perrier, Périgord, France- 6 bed, 5 bath, $4,940/month
Fully restored, this tremendous six bedroom castle has a double fireplace in the living room, a large kitchen, and a game room with a billiard table. Outside, you can take in the stunning views of the countryside in the garden that covers three acres, play football in one of the several lawns, or relax and enjoy the sun in the private pool.
perrier
perrier2
perrier3
Or you can rent…
Laurel Heights, San Francisco, CA- 3 bed, 2 bath, $4,995/month
With plenty of windows, this bright three bedroom apartment lets in plenty of natural light. Dark, hardwood floors run throughout the home and the spacious master bedroom has a large walk-in closet. The kitchen has a breakfast bar that opens up into the dining room area and there is a wood-burning fireplace in the living room.
laurel2
laurel laurel3
6. Manoir de la Motte, La Motte, France – 5 bed, 3.5 bath, $6,064/month
Tucked in an abundance of trees, this five bed, nineteenth century castle is a hidden, romantic escape from the world. All of the bedrooms are meticulously decorated with embroidered sheets and beautiful draping over the beds. You can take a hike through the lush forest or relax and enjoy the peaceful ambiance in the private garden.
manoir
manoir2
manoir3
Or you can rent…
NOPA, San Francisco, CA- 3 bed, 2.5 bath, $6,300/month
With 1,750 square feet of space, this three bedroom condo feels like a single family home. It has a recently remodeled kitchen with new appliances, a quaint garden with lemon and plum trees, and adorable pastel walls throughout the home. There are glossy hardwood floors in the living room and kitchen and soft beige carpet in the bedrooms.
nopa3
nopa2
nopa
Source: Zumper.com
* * *
With buying out of the question for mnost (hint - Student loans and affordability) and renting becoming increasingly unaffordable, the entire household formation "upside case" is now collapsing on itself, something we've discussed on a number of occasions. Recall the rise in "parental co-residence rates":
Note that this situation has the potential to become self-fullfilling. That is, as homeownership becomes increasingly unrealistic, demand for rentals will only increase, driving further increases in the cost of rental housing. The question then becomes this: what happens when a family that can't afford a down payment can no longer afford to pay the rent?
Submitted by Tyler D.
09/10/2015 - 20:05
This level of global inter-connected financial risk is hazardous in Mexico, where it’s peppered by high bank concentration risk. No one wants another major financial crisis. Yet, that’s where we are headed absent major reconstructions of the banking framework and the central bank policies that exude extreme power over global economies and markets, in the US, Mexico, and throughout the world. Mexico’s problems could again ripple through Latin America where eroding confidence, volatility, and US dollar strength are already hurting economies and markets. The difference is that now, in contrast to the 1980s and 1990s debt crises, loan and bond amounts have not just been extended by private banks, but subsidized by the Fed and the ECB. The risk platform is elevated. The fall, for both Mexico and its trading partners like the US, likely much harder.
What Bubble? 6 Castles That Are Cheaper To Rent Than An Apartment In NYC Or SF
Submitted by Tyler D.
09/10/2015 18:50 -0400
As we have noted numerous times in the past, there is a Bull market in serfdom.
Screen Shot 2015-08-13 at 10.47.36 AM
America's Renter Nation has never spent more of its paycheck on rent and as Zumper notes, with rent prices in San Francisco and New York at the highest in the nation, affordability does not seem to exist in these two metropolitan areas. For some idea of the scale, there are actually castles in France and Italy that can be rented for about the same price as average apartments in these cities...
All of the castles on this list have at least five bedrooms (one has eleven), while the correspondingly priced apartments in San Francisco or New York range from a studio with a murphy bed to a four bedroom.
1. Antic Castle, Tuscany, Italy- 11 bed, 11 bath, $4,040/month
Nestled on a private hill and surrounded by trees and vineyards, this massive eleven bed castle can comfortably house up to twenty five guests. Built in the Middle Ages, this former aristocratic residence has been renovated to include modern day luxuries such as air conditioning, central heating, and satellite television. However, the 17th century stone fireplaces and beautiful terracotta floors still exude a warm, historical charm.
antic3
antic2
antic
Or you can rent…
Stuyvesant Town, New York City, NY- 2 bed, 1 bath, $4,000/month
Newly renovated, this contemporary two bedroom apartment has spacious bedrooms with generous closets, an adorable kitchen with modern appliances, and a stylish bathroom with a sparkling tub. Along with concierge service, this apartment building also comes with a fitness center, residents lounge, and on-site laundry. Having twenty five guests may be a little tight, however.
coop
coop3
coop2
2. Chateau Le Mur, Comblessac, France- 8 bed, 5 bath, $2,800/month
Sitting on 180 acres, this fifteenth century, eight bedroom castle is immense and fit for royalty. You can take in the stunning views of the scenic dairy farms nearby from the balcony or sunbathe in the bountiful garden. Inside, there are multiple, large fireplaces, medieval themed kitchens, and a knight’s armor at the door to greet you.
mur
mur2
mur3
Or you can rent…
Upper East Side, New York City, NY – 2 bed, 1 bath, $2,995/month
Recently renovated, this cozy two bedroom apartment has glossy hardwood floors, new fixtures, and a minimalist kitchen. The bedrooms are compact, but with large windows to let in an abundance of natural light, the rooms feel much bigger than they are.
east2
east3
east
3. Chateau Arfeuilles, Region Auvergne, France- 6 bed, 3 bath, $6,525/month
Sophisticated and elegant, this six bed castle has been carefully decorated so each room is unique but the entire interior still exudes a tasteful charm throughout. The kitchen is fully equipped with modern appliances, there are two living rooms, one with a television, and every bedroom has a chandelier hanging from the ceiling. If you want to enjoy the sun, you can bask by the pool or lounge in one of the terraces.
arf
arf2
arf3
Or you can rent…
Hell’s Kitchen, New York City, NY- 4 bed, 2 bath, $6,700/month
In a brand new building, this stylish four bedroom apartment has shiny oak floors throughout, a natural calacatta marble backsplash in the kitchen, and porcelain walls in the shower. There is a large rooftop sun deck, private storage available, and 24/7 security in the lobby.
hk
hk2
hk3
4. Ringuette, Region Aquitaine, France- 7 bed, 2 bath, $2,925/month
On a piece of land that covers over 200 acres, this magnificent seven bed castle can accommodate up to twelve people. The spacious kitchen has a wood stove and the living room has a large fireplace. Outside, there is a lush, walled garden covered with vines and flowers, a private swimming pool, and a beautiful courtyard formed by the structures of the castle.
ring3
ring2
ring
Or you can rent…
Lower Haight, San Francisco, CA- Studio, 1 bath, $3,000/month
With just over 400 square feet, this snug studio apartment comes fully furnished with designer fittings. If you wanted to entertain guests, the Becker Murphy bed can be lifted up and hidden away. The kitchen has modern appliances and the bathroom comes with a tub. Some building amenities include a fitness center and a landscaped roof deck.
lh
lh2
lh3
5. Perrier, Périgord, France- 6 bed, 5 bath, $4,940/month
Fully restored, this tremendous six bedroom castle has a double fireplace in the living room, a large kitchen, and a game room with a billiard table. Outside, you can take in the stunning views of the countryside in the garden that covers three acres, play football in one of the several lawns, or relax and enjoy the sun in the private pool.
perrier
perrier2
perrier3
Or you can rent…
Laurel Heights, San Francisco, CA- 3 bed, 2 bath, $4,995/month
With plenty of windows, this bright three bedroom apartment lets in plenty of natural light. Dark, hardwood floors run throughout the home and the spacious master bedroom has a large walk-in closet. The kitchen has a breakfast bar that opens up into the dining room area and there is a wood-burning fireplace in the living room.
laurel2
laurel laurel3
6. Manoir de la Motte, La Motte, France – 5 bed, 3.5 bath, $6,064/month
Tucked in an abundance of trees, this five bed, nineteenth century castle is a hidden, romantic escape from the world. All of the bedrooms are meticulously decorated with embroidered sheets and beautiful draping over the beds. You can take a hike through the lush forest or relax and enjoy the peaceful ambiance in the private garden.
manoir
manoir2
manoir3
Or you can rent…
NOPA, San Francisco, CA- 3 bed, 2.5 bath, $6,300/month
With 1,750 square feet of space, this three bedroom condo feels like a single family home. It has a recently remodeled kitchen with new appliances, a quaint garden with lemon and plum trees, and adorable pastel walls throughout the home. There are glossy hardwood floors in the living room and kitchen and soft beige carpet in the bedrooms.
nopa3
nopa2
nopa
Source: Zumper.com
* * *
With buying out of the question for mnost (hint - Student loans and affordability) and renting becoming increasingly unaffordable, the entire household formation "upside case" is now collapsing on itself, something we've discussed on a number of occasions. Recall the rise in "parental co-residence rates":
Note that this situation has the potential to become self-fullfilling. That is, as homeownership becomes increasingly unrealistic, demand for rentals will only increase, driving further increases in the cost of rental housing. The question then becomes this: what happens when a family that can't afford a down payment can no longer afford to pay the rent?
- Fenix
- Mensajes: 16334
- Registrado: Vie Abr 23, 2010 2:36 am
Re: Jueves 09/10/15 Precios de los exportadores e importador
por Fenix » Jue Sep 10, 2015 8:19 pm
We Now Know What Happened At 6:12 AM This Morning
Submitted by Tyler D.
09/10/2015 20:57 -0400
In a day in which the total breakdown of the market and the sheer dominance of various HFT algos was painfully obvious for any remaining carbon-based trader forms to see, we started off with not one but two E-mini trading halts following ridiculous buying slams.
This is what we asked first thing this morning:
Anyone waking this morning will glance at US equity futures and happily note its unchanged-ness relative to weakness in Asia overnight. But behind the scenes of the last 12 hours was a total and utter farce of price discovery failure. S&P 500 e-mini futures have been halted twice (0551ET anbd 0612ET) in what one market observer exclaimed "looks like manipulation to me." So what exactly happened at 6:12am?
We now know.
As Nanex shows, what happened at 5:51 am and at 6:12 am, the ES breaks were nothing more than an aggravated case of HFT spoofing - the same infringement which will likely send Navinder Sarao behind bars for years - which first sent the E-mini soaring higher so fast, it broke the velocity logic circuit, and then it smashed the E-mini lower.
Here is the first spoofing instance, which prompted Eric Hunsader to declare the manipulator "busted." Indicatively, the entire move amounted to just about 20 S&P points on the way up, or about 0.4%.
And the second one: what goes up must come down.
In summary: what we do know: a nearly 1% move up and down in the S&P due to blatan - and illegal - spoofing manipulation; what we don't know: the identity of the spoofer.
What is certain: if the culprit is a central bank or one of its trading agents like Citadel, the CFTC will never follow up. If it is some Indian living in his parents' basement in a London suburb, you can run but you can't hide.
Goldman Fears "Government Shutdown" Is Looming As Lew Urges Congress "Raise Debt Limit ASAP"
Submitted by Tyler D.
09/10/2015 20:30 -0400
With Treasury Secretary Jack Lew sending a letter to Congress this evening demanding they raise the debt limit as soon as possible, warning that cash balances have dropped below the "minimum target," it is perhaps less than surprising that Goldman Sachs is warning that a government shutdown at the end of the month has become much more likely over the last several weeks. While out-months in VIX (beyond the prospective shutdown) remain elevated, Goldman finds a silver-lining claiming that the effect of a potential shutdown on financial markets and the real economy would probably be modest if it did occur. We shall see...
As Goldman explains...
* While it is a close call, we still think it is slightly more likely that Congress will avoid a shutdown and pass spending legislation just before the current funding expires on September 30.
* More importantly, while the risk of a shutdown is real and the outcome of the political debate is hard to predict, the effect of a potential shutdown on financial markets and the real economy would probably be modest if it did occur. Unlike 2013, a shutdown in October would be unrelated to raising the debt limit, and it would probably also be shorter in duration. If so, it would probably have little effect on output or personal income, though it could dent confidence.
A government shutdown at the end of the month has become much more likely over the last several weeks, in our view. Federal spending authority expires on September 30, and with little hope of resolving differences on full-year spending bills by then, Congress will need to pass a “continuing resolution” to avoid a lapse in funding that would result in a partial government shutdown.
While the parties have disagreed on 2016 spending levels for some time, a shutdown only recently emerged as a risk, mainly because the controversy surrounding whether to block funds to the Planned Parenthood organization has created the sort of binary issue that has caused or threatened to cause shutdowns in the past. Some Republicans want to use the upcoming spending bill to block the organization from receiving federal funds, while Democrats generally oppose such a move. Unlike budget disagreements, which can be settled by meeting halfway, these issues are harder to resolve because one side basically needs to give up on their position.
More generally, the political environment at the moment seems ripe for fiscal conflict. We are still closer to the last election than the next one, and it is not a coincidence that recent major fiscal disruptions occurred in 2011 and 2013—odd years—when upcoming elections were still more than a year off. In the 2013 experience, public sentiment toward Republicans dropped sharply during and after the shutdown (Gallup’s Republican favorability measure hit a 20-year low), but a year later Republicans won the majorities in the House and Senate. Some lawmakers may conclude from this that voters’ memories are short and the political price for a shutdown more than a year before the next election is low. Anti-establishment political sentiment is also running high; “outsider” candidates are performing surprisingly well in the contest for the Republican and, to a lesser extent, Democratic nomination, and efforts to remove House Speaker Boehner (R-OH) from his position as Speaker have resurfaced.
Ultimately, the outlook hinges on House Republican leaders. In the next week or two, the House looks likely to pass a continuing resolution that defunds Planned Parenthood. The Senate already considered legislation dealing with that topic and failed to muster 60 votes, suggesting that only a “clean” funding bill can pass there. As has been the case several times before, this will put House leaders in the position of accepting a “clean” bill that the Senate will eventually pass, thereby averting a shutdown, or insisting on their version, which the President would surely veto in any case.
There is more than one way that Congress could still avoid a shutdown at the end of the month. The most obvious option would be for House Republican leaders to bring “clean” spending legislation to a vote, with the expectation that it would pass with substantial Democratic support. To satisfy conservatives, the House could also vote on separate legislation to enact the specific policy changes some lawmakers are demanding, potentially via the reconciliation process, which requires only 51 votes in the Senate and therefore would allow congressional Republicans to send such a bill to the President’s desk (it would nevertheless be vetoed, but the effort might be enough to satisfy House conservatives). A second option would be to split off the controversial issues from the funding for other agencies, limiting the scope of any potential shutdown, similar to the strategy used in late 2014 to extend spending authority in the face of Republican opposition to the President’s executive action on immigration. However, it seems unlikely that congressional Democrats would support such a move this time around.
So will a shutdown occur? With a few weeks to go until the deadline, the outlook is very murky but our best guess is that Congress will narrowly avoid it. While there are several considerations that make a shutdown possible, as noted above, support for the current effort is still fairly limited. Prior to the 2013 shutdown, for example, 80 House Republicans signed on to the effort to oppose spending legislation unless it blocked funding for the Affordable Care Act (ACA, or Obamacare). By contrast, only around 30 have signed on to the current effort, though that number may rise.
More importantly, while the probability of a shutdown of some kind seems to us to be approaching 50%, we think the probability of a shutdown that has a significant effect on the financial markets or real economy is much lower, for two reasons.
First, unlike the 2013 shutdown, which coincided with the deadline to raise the debt limit, the next deadline to raise the debt limit is unlikely to be reached until at least mid-November. As shown in Exhibit 1, shutdowns that overlapped with debt limit deadlines—the 1990 and 2013 shutdowns—have tended to result in a stronger reaction in financial markets than other shutdowns where the debt limit deadline was not about to be reached.
Exhibit 1: Shutdowns create volatility mainly when they overlap with a debt limit deadline
Source: Bloomberg, Congressional Research Service, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Second, a potential shutdown would probably be very short. In 2013, the shutdown ended up lasting longer than initially expected, in large part because the only natural deadline was the debt limit deadline, which was 2.5 weeks after funding lapsed. While one might argue that the lack of any deadline could lead to an even longer potential shutdown this year, it is more likely in our view that it would simply result in a decision to end the shutdown soon after it began, as has been the case with nearly every other government shutdown. In the 12 instances since 1980 that the federal government has shut down due to a funding lapse, the shutdown has lasted more than a week only twice. In 2013, we estimated that each week that all agencies were shut down would reduce real GDP growth in the quarter by around 0.2pp, though most of this effect would be reversed in the following quarter (after the first week, most civilian defense employees returned to work, reducing the economic effect of the final two weeks of what turned out to be a three-week shutdown).
It is too early to predict with any certainty whether a shutdown will occur, let alone how long it might last, but as the situation stands today, it seems likely to us that if a shutdown does occur it would have a smaller effect than the one in 2013.
Submitted by Tyler D.
09/10/2015 20:57 -0400
In a day in which the total breakdown of the market and the sheer dominance of various HFT algos was painfully obvious for any remaining carbon-based trader forms to see, we started off with not one but two E-mini trading halts following ridiculous buying slams.
This is what we asked first thing this morning:
Anyone waking this morning will glance at US equity futures and happily note its unchanged-ness relative to weakness in Asia overnight. But behind the scenes of the last 12 hours was a total and utter farce of price discovery failure. S&P 500 e-mini futures have been halted twice (0551ET anbd 0612ET) in what one market observer exclaimed "looks like manipulation to me." So what exactly happened at 6:12am?
We now know.
As Nanex shows, what happened at 5:51 am and at 6:12 am, the ES breaks were nothing more than an aggravated case of HFT spoofing - the same infringement which will likely send Navinder Sarao behind bars for years - which first sent the E-mini soaring higher so fast, it broke the velocity logic circuit, and then it smashed the E-mini lower.
Here is the first spoofing instance, which prompted Eric Hunsader to declare the manipulator "busted." Indicatively, the entire move amounted to just about 20 S&P points on the way up, or about 0.4%.
And the second one: what goes up must come down.
In summary: what we do know: a nearly 1% move up and down in the S&P due to blatan - and illegal - spoofing manipulation; what we don't know: the identity of the spoofer.
What is certain: if the culprit is a central bank or one of its trading agents like Citadel, the CFTC will never follow up. If it is some Indian living in his parents' basement in a London suburb, you can run but you can't hide.
Goldman Fears "Government Shutdown" Is Looming As Lew Urges Congress "Raise Debt Limit ASAP"
Submitted by Tyler D.
09/10/2015 20:30 -0400
With Treasury Secretary Jack Lew sending a letter to Congress this evening demanding they raise the debt limit as soon as possible, warning that cash balances have dropped below the "minimum target," it is perhaps less than surprising that Goldman Sachs is warning that a government shutdown at the end of the month has become much more likely over the last several weeks. While out-months in VIX (beyond the prospective shutdown) remain elevated, Goldman finds a silver-lining claiming that the effect of a potential shutdown on financial markets and the real economy would probably be modest if it did occur. We shall see...
As Goldman explains...
* While it is a close call, we still think it is slightly more likely that Congress will avoid a shutdown and pass spending legislation just before the current funding expires on September 30.
* More importantly, while the risk of a shutdown is real and the outcome of the political debate is hard to predict, the effect of a potential shutdown on financial markets and the real economy would probably be modest if it did occur. Unlike 2013, a shutdown in October would be unrelated to raising the debt limit, and it would probably also be shorter in duration. If so, it would probably have little effect on output or personal income, though it could dent confidence.
A government shutdown at the end of the month has become much more likely over the last several weeks, in our view. Federal spending authority expires on September 30, and with little hope of resolving differences on full-year spending bills by then, Congress will need to pass a “continuing resolution” to avoid a lapse in funding that would result in a partial government shutdown.
While the parties have disagreed on 2016 spending levels for some time, a shutdown only recently emerged as a risk, mainly because the controversy surrounding whether to block funds to the Planned Parenthood organization has created the sort of binary issue that has caused or threatened to cause shutdowns in the past. Some Republicans want to use the upcoming spending bill to block the organization from receiving federal funds, while Democrats generally oppose such a move. Unlike budget disagreements, which can be settled by meeting halfway, these issues are harder to resolve because one side basically needs to give up on their position.
More generally, the political environment at the moment seems ripe for fiscal conflict. We are still closer to the last election than the next one, and it is not a coincidence that recent major fiscal disruptions occurred in 2011 and 2013—odd years—when upcoming elections were still more than a year off. In the 2013 experience, public sentiment toward Republicans dropped sharply during and after the shutdown (Gallup’s Republican favorability measure hit a 20-year low), but a year later Republicans won the majorities in the House and Senate. Some lawmakers may conclude from this that voters’ memories are short and the political price for a shutdown more than a year before the next election is low. Anti-establishment political sentiment is also running high; “outsider” candidates are performing surprisingly well in the contest for the Republican and, to a lesser extent, Democratic nomination, and efforts to remove House Speaker Boehner (R-OH) from his position as Speaker have resurfaced.
Ultimately, the outlook hinges on House Republican leaders. In the next week or two, the House looks likely to pass a continuing resolution that defunds Planned Parenthood. The Senate already considered legislation dealing with that topic and failed to muster 60 votes, suggesting that only a “clean” funding bill can pass there. As has been the case several times before, this will put House leaders in the position of accepting a “clean” bill that the Senate will eventually pass, thereby averting a shutdown, or insisting on their version, which the President would surely veto in any case.
There is more than one way that Congress could still avoid a shutdown at the end of the month. The most obvious option would be for House Republican leaders to bring “clean” spending legislation to a vote, with the expectation that it would pass with substantial Democratic support. To satisfy conservatives, the House could also vote on separate legislation to enact the specific policy changes some lawmakers are demanding, potentially via the reconciliation process, which requires only 51 votes in the Senate and therefore would allow congressional Republicans to send such a bill to the President’s desk (it would nevertheless be vetoed, but the effort might be enough to satisfy House conservatives). A second option would be to split off the controversial issues from the funding for other agencies, limiting the scope of any potential shutdown, similar to the strategy used in late 2014 to extend spending authority in the face of Republican opposition to the President’s executive action on immigration. However, it seems unlikely that congressional Democrats would support such a move this time around.
So will a shutdown occur? With a few weeks to go until the deadline, the outlook is very murky but our best guess is that Congress will narrowly avoid it. While there are several considerations that make a shutdown possible, as noted above, support for the current effort is still fairly limited. Prior to the 2013 shutdown, for example, 80 House Republicans signed on to the effort to oppose spending legislation unless it blocked funding for the Affordable Care Act (ACA, or Obamacare). By contrast, only around 30 have signed on to the current effort, though that number may rise.
More importantly, while the probability of a shutdown of some kind seems to us to be approaching 50%, we think the probability of a shutdown that has a significant effect on the financial markets or real economy is much lower, for two reasons.
First, unlike the 2013 shutdown, which coincided with the deadline to raise the debt limit, the next deadline to raise the debt limit is unlikely to be reached until at least mid-November. As shown in Exhibit 1, shutdowns that overlapped with debt limit deadlines—the 1990 and 2013 shutdowns—have tended to result in a stronger reaction in financial markets than other shutdowns where the debt limit deadline was not about to be reached.
Exhibit 1: Shutdowns create volatility mainly when they overlap with a debt limit deadline
Source: Bloomberg, Congressional Research Service, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Second, a potential shutdown would probably be very short. In 2013, the shutdown ended up lasting longer than initially expected, in large part because the only natural deadline was the debt limit deadline, which was 2.5 weeks after funding lapsed. While one might argue that the lack of any deadline could lead to an even longer potential shutdown this year, it is more likely in our view that it would simply result in a decision to end the shutdown soon after it began, as has been the case with nearly every other government shutdown. In the 12 instances since 1980 that the federal government has shut down due to a funding lapse, the shutdown has lasted more than a week only twice. In 2013, we estimated that each week that all agencies were shut down would reduce real GDP growth in the quarter by around 0.2pp, though most of this effect would be reversed in the following quarter (after the first week, most civilian defense employees returned to work, reducing the economic effect of the final two weeks of what turned out to be a three-week shutdown).
It is too early to predict with any certainty whether a shutdown will occur, let alone how long it might last, but as the situation stands today, it seems likely to us that if a shutdown does occur it would have a smaller effect than the one in 2013.
- Fenix
- Mensajes: 16334
- Registrado: Vie Abr 23, 2010 2:36 am
Re: Jueves 09/10/15 Precios de los exportadores e importador
por Fenix » Jue Sep 10, 2015 8:21 pm
In Major Humiliation For Obama, Iran Sends Soldiers To Support Russian Troops In Syria
Submitted by Tyler D.
09/10/2015 - 21:10
The latest twist in what we have been warning for months has the makings of the biggest proxy shooting war in years, one that will come as a major humiliation to the Obama administration, today we find out that none other than America's most recent diplomatic sweetheart in the Gulf region, Iran, has deployed ground soldiers into Syria in the past few days in cooperation with Russia's President Vladimir Putin.
Anyone Who Believes The COMEX Numbers Is Very Naive (They Are Much Worse!)
Submitted by Tyler D.
09/10/2015 21:00 -0400
Via Investment Research Dynamics,
“The information in this report is taken from sources believed to be reliable; however, the Commodity Exchange, Inc. disclaims all liability whatsoever with regard to its accuracy or completeness. This report is produced for information purposes only.”
– disclaimer now posted on the Comex gold and silver daily warehouse stock report as of Monday, June 3, 2013 – Investment Research Dynamics – June 4, 2013
Yesterday we published an article detailing the Comex gold futures to deliverable physical gold ratio that is now north of 200:1. But an erudite colleague of mine, John Titus of “Best Evidence,” correctly pointed out that: “They are probably bluffing. In other words, the real number is significantly higher than 200:1.”
For the record, John does more thorough research on the economic numbers and reports that he studies than anyone I’ve ever come across. And he does it with the trained analytic eye of a seasoned patent litigation attorney.
Let’s put everything in perspective. The numerical reports from which fancy graphs and and dry detailed data presentations are created originate from the Too Big To Fail Banks. I’ve said for quite some time that IF the bullion banks who control the Comex and the LBMA are submitting honest data reports for the Comex and LBMA, it would be the only business line in which they do not hide the truth and report fraudulent numbers. What is the probability of that?
JP Morgan was recently caught stuffing proprietary Comex futures short-sell trades into the “Managed Money” account category of the COT report. The CFTC scolded JPM and slapped them with a whopping $650,000 – LINK. Does anyone really believe that the CFTC wrist-slapping corrected any fraudulent data reporting by the likes of JP Morgan? Really?
Put your “think like a criminal hat” on for a moment. You know that the people who care about this sort of thing already know that the there’s a paper vs. physical problem in the market. So just show them a number that they’ll buy into and that will be “the number.” Most analysts will accept that number at face value and use that in their articles and blog posts. That number then becomes accepted in goldbug circles as the “real” number.
But the truth of the matter is that they are more than likely reporting numbers they want us to see, not the real numbers. For instance, the silver market is now seizing up from lack of supply. Please see this report from Greg Hunter and David Morgan if you are still skeptical: Retail Silver Has Seized Up.
Yet, the Comex bank custodians are reporting over 51 million ounces of silver available fore delivery – LINK. In fact, CNT – an official supplier to the U.S. mint – is showing 13.3 million ounces of deliverable silver. So why is there’s a shortage of silver at the U.S. mint? IF that silver were actually in the vault, the U.S. mint could buy a spot contract – September has a silver contract open – and take immediate delivery.
Also, why did the CME, unannounced, start slipping that little accuracy disclaimer into its daily gold and silver inventory reports in 2013? I’ll let you draw your own conclusion about the truth.
The silver market is seizing up which means that there’s a severe shortage of silver available. It is also showing up in the LBMA wholesale market based on the backwardation in gold and silver forward contracts that have been observed for several weeks. It means that any visible inventories reports from ETFs and Comex/LBMA banks custodial vaults are fraudulent. That includes SLV reports.
It also means that the recent discovery that the LBMA altered its gold refining flow statistics, revising what was originally reported to be 6,601 tonnes of gold cleared by the LBMA in 2013 down by 2,000 tonnes to 4600 tonnes, are likely off the mark. That’s a big miss, given that the total global mine production annually is around 2500 tonnes.
The significance of this is that it’s easier to explain how 4600 tonnes of gold was refined into bars and sent to Asia than 6600 tonnes, given that the total global supply of gold from mine production + scrap production was reported to be slightly more than 3000 tonnes.
From where did that extra 1600 tonnes come? The REAL question is, from where did the extra 2600 tonnes come if we use the original number? And is the 6600 tonne number a good number? Was the real number even higher?
The obvious conclusion is that the supply deficits in gold and silver are being remedied by hypothecating gold and silver bars from allocated accounts held at bullion banks, including the accounts held in behalf of the gold/silver ETFs, like GLD and SLV. This is why ABN Amro and Rabobank stopped allowing their physical gold account investors to take physical delivery of the gold they thought they have invested in – the gold was not there to deliver. This also occurred in 2013.
Now for the final blow to any skeptics. You’ll note that the LBMA revised down the amount of gold it cleared from refineries in 2013. But you’ll also note that the Comex inventory report disclaimer at the top of this post was first inserted into the daily Comex inventory reports in June 2013. See any coincidences? Bueller…
Bill Murphy and GATA have maintained for years that the fraud and corruption in the precious metals market would eventually be revealed as the biggest financial fraud scheme in history. It would seem that the cracks in the wall of this scheme are growing wider and it’s becoming easier to see rays of truth.
History tells us that all Ponzi schemes and market interventions fail. I believe we are on the cusp of a massive failure in the scheme to cover up the truth about the precious metals market.
Submitted by Tyler D.
09/10/2015 - 21:10
The latest twist in what we have been warning for months has the makings of the biggest proxy shooting war in years, one that will come as a major humiliation to the Obama administration, today we find out that none other than America's most recent diplomatic sweetheart in the Gulf region, Iran, has deployed ground soldiers into Syria in the past few days in cooperation with Russia's President Vladimir Putin.
Anyone Who Believes The COMEX Numbers Is Very Naive (They Are Much Worse!)
Submitted by Tyler D.
09/10/2015 21:00 -0400
Via Investment Research Dynamics,
“The information in this report is taken from sources believed to be reliable; however, the Commodity Exchange, Inc. disclaims all liability whatsoever with regard to its accuracy or completeness. This report is produced for information purposes only.”
– disclaimer now posted on the Comex gold and silver daily warehouse stock report as of Monday, June 3, 2013 – Investment Research Dynamics – June 4, 2013
Yesterday we published an article detailing the Comex gold futures to deliverable physical gold ratio that is now north of 200:1. But an erudite colleague of mine, John Titus of “Best Evidence,” correctly pointed out that: “They are probably bluffing. In other words, the real number is significantly higher than 200:1.”
For the record, John does more thorough research on the economic numbers and reports that he studies than anyone I’ve ever come across. And he does it with the trained analytic eye of a seasoned patent litigation attorney.
Let’s put everything in perspective. The numerical reports from which fancy graphs and and dry detailed data presentations are created originate from the Too Big To Fail Banks. I’ve said for quite some time that IF the bullion banks who control the Comex and the LBMA are submitting honest data reports for the Comex and LBMA, it would be the only business line in which they do not hide the truth and report fraudulent numbers. What is the probability of that?
JP Morgan was recently caught stuffing proprietary Comex futures short-sell trades into the “Managed Money” account category of the COT report. The CFTC scolded JPM and slapped them with a whopping $650,000 – LINK. Does anyone really believe that the CFTC wrist-slapping corrected any fraudulent data reporting by the likes of JP Morgan? Really?
Put your “think like a criminal hat” on for a moment. You know that the people who care about this sort of thing already know that the there’s a paper vs. physical problem in the market. So just show them a number that they’ll buy into and that will be “the number.” Most analysts will accept that number at face value and use that in their articles and blog posts. That number then becomes accepted in goldbug circles as the “real” number.
But the truth of the matter is that they are more than likely reporting numbers they want us to see, not the real numbers. For instance, the silver market is now seizing up from lack of supply. Please see this report from Greg Hunter and David Morgan if you are still skeptical: Retail Silver Has Seized Up.
Yet, the Comex bank custodians are reporting over 51 million ounces of silver available fore delivery – LINK. In fact, CNT – an official supplier to the U.S. mint – is showing 13.3 million ounces of deliverable silver. So why is there’s a shortage of silver at the U.S. mint? IF that silver were actually in the vault, the U.S. mint could buy a spot contract – September has a silver contract open – and take immediate delivery.
Also, why did the CME, unannounced, start slipping that little accuracy disclaimer into its daily gold and silver inventory reports in 2013? I’ll let you draw your own conclusion about the truth.
The silver market is seizing up which means that there’s a severe shortage of silver available. It is also showing up in the LBMA wholesale market based on the backwardation in gold and silver forward contracts that have been observed for several weeks. It means that any visible inventories reports from ETFs and Comex/LBMA banks custodial vaults are fraudulent. That includes SLV reports.
It also means that the recent discovery that the LBMA altered its gold refining flow statistics, revising what was originally reported to be 6,601 tonnes of gold cleared by the LBMA in 2013 down by 2,000 tonnes to 4600 tonnes, are likely off the mark. That’s a big miss, given that the total global mine production annually is around 2500 tonnes.
The significance of this is that it’s easier to explain how 4600 tonnes of gold was refined into bars and sent to Asia than 6600 tonnes, given that the total global supply of gold from mine production + scrap production was reported to be slightly more than 3000 tonnes.
From where did that extra 1600 tonnes come? The REAL question is, from where did the extra 2600 tonnes come if we use the original number? And is the 6600 tonne number a good number? Was the real number even higher?
The obvious conclusion is that the supply deficits in gold and silver are being remedied by hypothecating gold and silver bars from allocated accounts held at bullion banks, including the accounts held in behalf of the gold/silver ETFs, like GLD and SLV. This is why ABN Amro and Rabobank stopped allowing their physical gold account investors to take physical delivery of the gold they thought they have invested in – the gold was not there to deliver. This also occurred in 2013.
Now for the final blow to any skeptics. You’ll note that the LBMA revised down the amount of gold it cleared from refineries in 2013. But you’ll also note that the Comex inventory report disclaimer at the top of this post was first inserted into the daily Comex inventory reports in June 2013. See any coincidences? Bueller…
Bill Murphy and GATA have maintained for years that the fraud and corruption in the precious metals market would eventually be revealed as the biggest financial fraud scheme in history. It would seem that the cracks in the wall of this scheme are growing wider and it’s becoming easier to see rays of truth.
History tells us that all Ponzi schemes and market interventions fail. I believe we are on the cusp of a massive failure in the scheme to cover up the truth about the precious metals market.
- Fenix
- Mensajes: 16334
- Registrado: Vie Abr 23, 2010 2:36 am
Re: Jueves 09/10/15 Precios de los exportadores e importador
por Fenix » Jue Sep 10, 2015 8:22 pm
Paul Krugman Is "Really, Really Worried" That He Might Have Screwed Up Japan
Submitted by Tyler D.
09/10/2015 - 17:45
Late last year, Paul Krugman took a field trip to Japan to observe Keynesian insanity prowling around in its natural habitat. While he was there, he gave Prime Minister Shinzo Abe some sage advice which can be roughly summarized as follows: "Abenomics is working so why would you screw it up by getting fiscally responsible all of the sudden?" Nine months later, Japan is still a deflationary deathtrap and Krugman is "really, really worried"...
Global Economy Nearing a “Structural Recession”
testosteronepit's picture
Submitted by testosteronepit on 09/10/2015 09:01 -0400
Wolf Richter www.wolfstreet.com www.amazon.com/author/wolfrichter
To the never-ending astonishment of our economists, global growth has been much weaker since the Financial Crisis than before it, despite enormous global stimulus from years of extreme central-bank monetary policies and record amounts of government deficit spending.
This should not have happened, according to our economists. Fiscal stimulus and expansionary monetary policies beget economic growth, which beget even more economic growth. That’s the theory. And that’s precisely what hasn’t happened. All it did was inflate asset prices. But the global economy has been a dud.
“If we calculated global growth with China’s true growth rate and not the official rate, global growth in the second quarter of 2015 would be only 2%,” figured Natixis, the investment bank of France’s second largest megabank, Groupe BPCE.
This “sluggish growth, close to a recession, is due to persistent, structural causes; we therefore use the term ‘structural recession’ to show that it does not have a cyclical origin,” the report explained. It’s not caused by normal cyclical fluctuations, but by “persistent structural problems that are specific to each region.”
China loses its cost-competitiveness
The problem dogging China is the soaring cost of labor, in an economy that is still too centered on low-end products and exposed to “a very high level of the price elasticity of exports.” Thus, if Bangladesh or Vietnam can produce it a little more cheaply, China loses those exports.
Labor costs have soared in the double digits year after year. Even per-unit labor cost, which compensates for productivity gains, has jumped year over year: in 2015, by 4.5%, which is at the low end; and by over 10% at the high end in 2000-2001 and 2007-2008.
Hence a decline in exports of those products, a weakening of investments, and a sharp weakening of what Natixis calls China’s “true growth.”
Japan Inc. shortchanges its workers.
The main problem in Japan is “the excessive and virtually continuous distortion of income distribution at the expense of employees.” This shows up in the “frequent decline in real wages.”
OK, that sounds like an American disease as well, and it is….
Real per-capita wage growth in Japan has been negative year over year since 2013. From 1998 to 2012, there had been five significant periods with real wage declines. Yet per-capita productivity has continued to grow. And real GDP per working-age population has outgrown the rates in the US, the Eurozone, and the UK, as this chart from the Bank of International Settlements shows (blue line = Japan):
Japan-US-Euro-UK-GDP-working-age-population-BIS
The Japanese are working hard and productively but are increasingly reduced to cheap labor by Japan Inc. The consequences of Abenomics, including a bout of inflation, have made this condition worse. If workers don’t make enough money, household demand is left twisting in the wind.
Household demand moved in fits and starts. But on April 1, 2014, the consumption tax hike hit, and household demand plunged. It’s now merely 9% above where it had been 1998.
Emerging countries other than China suffer from bottlenecks.
Growth, and in particular industrial growth, in these countries has been “slowing down markedly.” Growth in manufacturing production has trended down ever since the V-shaped post-Financial Crisis recovery and has recently dipped into the negative. This has pushed GDP growth down into the 3% range. But these should be the fastest growing economies!
The report blames “the many bottlenecks,” including a shortfall in sufficiently skilled workers, a shortage of energy production – with electricity production stagnating for the past 15 years – and sorely lacking transportation infrastructure.
Commodity exporters get squashed by plunging prices.
The plunge to multi-year lows in the prices of oil, natural gas (LNG), copper, iron ore, tin, gold, silver, and so on have hit each commodity-exporting country in its own way. They include Saudi Arabia and other OPEC countries, a number of African countries, Russia, Australia, and Canada.
For commodity exporters as a group, GDP growth is now hovering at 2%, according to the report. But this might get worse: Russia is in a deep recession, Canada in a technical recession, and Australia looking increasingly shaky.
Government revenues in many of these countries are based in part on the value of commodity exports. And if some of these countries have to grapple with their fiscal deficits in the future by cutting back government spending, growth will take another hit.
The US gets tripped up by energy sector horrors.
The collapse in oil and gas prices has caused companies directly and indirectly in the industry to cut back. Thus a “downturn in productive investment and industrial production as a whole,” which has weakened the economy further, even as GDP growth has been in the already lousy 2% range ever since the “recovery” from the Financial Crisis.
But there is hope, the report found – the US being the only area where the report mentioned any signs of hope: “The second quarter figures nevertheless show that investment seems to be picking up.” OK, maybe just a glimmer.
Eurozone is mired in uncertainty and under-investment
The debt crisis has had consequences: falling investment “linked to excess indebtedness and uncertainty.”
Public investment dropped from the range of 3.2%-3.5% of GDP before the Financial Crisis to 2.6%. Yet, government debt as a percent of GDP has continued to balloon in most Eurozone countries. Corporate investment has only been inching up over the last two years, after a steep decline, and remains substantially below where it had been before the Financial Crisis. And household investment in housing has plunged.
While the Eurozone emerged from its long recession, growth has been anemic, with GDP inching up at around 1% over the past two years.
All these problems are structural, rather than cyclical, according to Natixis. They’re not part of the normal fluctuations that could be dealt with via stimulus programs or monetary policies. Natixis:
Expansionary monetary policies, although they are being used, are unable to pull the world out of this situation of structural recession.
Instead, these economies would have to attack their structural shortcomings. China would have to move up the value chain, which takes time and is painful. Japan would have to correct the “anomalies in income distribution” and pay workers more, which would make Japan Inc. less competitive and the elite less exuberant about Abenomics. Emerging countries other than China would need to invest money they don’t have in infrastructure and education. The Eurozone and other economies that are bogged down in too much debt would need to engage in “public and private sector deleveraging.”
That’s not happening. Instead, the reaction is “to use highly expansionary monetary policies to restore growth, which is ineffective, given the nature of the problems, and dangerous as it generates more excess liquidity.”
And this has not been seen since the Financial Crisis: read… The US Revenue Recession Spreads past Dollar, Energy
Submitted by Tyler D.
09/10/2015 - 17:45
Late last year, Paul Krugman took a field trip to Japan to observe Keynesian insanity prowling around in its natural habitat. While he was there, he gave Prime Minister Shinzo Abe some sage advice which can be roughly summarized as follows: "Abenomics is working so why would you screw it up by getting fiscally responsible all of the sudden?" Nine months later, Japan is still a deflationary deathtrap and Krugman is "really, really worried"...
Global Economy Nearing a “Structural Recession”
testosteronepit's picture
Submitted by testosteronepit on 09/10/2015 09:01 -0400
Wolf Richter www.wolfstreet.com www.amazon.com/author/wolfrichter
To the never-ending astonishment of our economists, global growth has been much weaker since the Financial Crisis than before it, despite enormous global stimulus from years of extreme central-bank monetary policies and record amounts of government deficit spending.
This should not have happened, according to our economists. Fiscal stimulus and expansionary monetary policies beget economic growth, which beget even more economic growth. That’s the theory. And that’s precisely what hasn’t happened. All it did was inflate asset prices. But the global economy has been a dud.
“If we calculated global growth with China’s true growth rate and not the official rate, global growth in the second quarter of 2015 would be only 2%,” figured Natixis, the investment bank of France’s second largest megabank, Groupe BPCE.
This “sluggish growth, close to a recession, is due to persistent, structural causes; we therefore use the term ‘structural recession’ to show that it does not have a cyclical origin,” the report explained. It’s not caused by normal cyclical fluctuations, but by “persistent structural problems that are specific to each region.”
China loses its cost-competitiveness
The problem dogging China is the soaring cost of labor, in an economy that is still too centered on low-end products and exposed to “a very high level of the price elasticity of exports.” Thus, if Bangladesh or Vietnam can produce it a little more cheaply, China loses those exports.
Labor costs have soared in the double digits year after year. Even per-unit labor cost, which compensates for productivity gains, has jumped year over year: in 2015, by 4.5%, which is at the low end; and by over 10% at the high end in 2000-2001 and 2007-2008.
Hence a decline in exports of those products, a weakening of investments, and a sharp weakening of what Natixis calls China’s “true growth.”
Japan Inc. shortchanges its workers.
The main problem in Japan is “the excessive and virtually continuous distortion of income distribution at the expense of employees.” This shows up in the “frequent decline in real wages.”
OK, that sounds like an American disease as well, and it is….
Real per-capita wage growth in Japan has been negative year over year since 2013. From 1998 to 2012, there had been five significant periods with real wage declines. Yet per-capita productivity has continued to grow. And real GDP per working-age population has outgrown the rates in the US, the Eurozone, and the UK, as this chart from the Bank of International Settlements shows (blue line = Japan):
Japan-US-Euro-UK-GDP-working-age-population-BIS
The Japanese are working hard and productively but are increasingly reduced to cheap labor by Japan Inc. The consequences of Abenomics, including a bout of inflation, have made this condition worse. If workers don’t make enough money, household demand is left twisting in the wind.
Household demand moved in fits and starts. But on April 1, 2014, the consumption tax hike hit, and household demand plunged. It’s now merely 9% above where it had been 1998.
Emerging countries other than China suffer from bottlenecks.
Growth, and in particular industrial growth, in these countries has been “slowing down markedly.” Growth in manufacturing production has trended down ever since the V-shaped post-Financial Crisis recovery and has recently dipped into the negative. This has pushed GDP growth down into the 3% range. But these should be the fastest growing economies!
The report blames “the many bottlenecks,” including a shortfall in sufficiently skilled workers, a shortage of energy production – with electricity production stagnating for the past 15 years – and sorely lacking transportation infrastructure.
Commodity exporters get squashed by plunging prices.
The plunge to multi-year lows in the prices of oil, natural gas (LNG), copper, iron ore, tin, gold, silver, and so on have hit each commodity-exporting country in its own way. They include Saudi Arabia and other OPEC countries, a number of African countries, Russia, Australia, and Canada.
For commodity exporters as a group, GDP growth is now hovering at 2%, according to the report. But this might get worse: Russia is in a deep recession, Canada in a technical recession, and Australia looking increasingly shaky.
Government revenues in many of these countries are based in part on the value of commodity exports. And if some of these countries have to grapple with their fiscal deficits in the future by cutting back government spending, growth will take another hit.
The US gets tripped up by energy sector horrors.
The collapse in oil and gas prices has caused companies directly and indirectly in the industry to cut back. Thus a “downturn in productive investment and industrial production as a whole,” which has weakened the economy further, even as GDP growth has been in the already lousy 2% range ever since the “recovery” from the Financial Crisis.
But there is hope, the report found – the US being the only area where the report mentioned any signs of hope: “The second quarter figures nevertheless show that investment seems to be picking up.” OK, maybe just a glimmer.
Eurozone is mired in uncertainty and under-investment
The debt crisis has had consequences: falling investment “linked to excess indebtedness and uncertainty.”
Public investment dropped from the range of 3.2%-3.5% of GDP before the Financial Crisis to 2.6%. Yet, government debt as a percent of GDP has continued to balloon in most Eurozone countries. Corporate investment has only been inching up over the last two years, after a steep decline, and remains substantially below where it had been before the Financial Crisis. And household investment in housing has plunged.
While the Eurozone emerged from its long recession, growth has been anemic, with GDP inching up at around 1% over the past two years.
All these problems are structural, rather than cyclical, according to Natixis. They’re not part of the normal fluctuations that could be dealt with via stimulus programs or monetary policies. Natixis:
Expansionary monetary policies, although they are being used, are unable to pull the world out of this situation of structural recession.
Instead, these economies would have to attack their structural shortcomings. China would have to move up the value chain, which takes time and is painful. Japan would have to correct the “anomalies in income distribution” and pay workers more, which would make Japan Inc. less competitive and the elite less exuberant about Abenomics. Emerging countries other than China would need to invest money they don’t have in infrastructure and education. The Eurozone and other economies that are bogged down in too much debt would need to engage in “public and private sector deleveraging.”
That’s not happening. Instead, the reaction is “to use highly expansionary monetary policies to restore growth, which is ineffective, given the nature of the problems, and dangerous as it generates more excess liquidity.”
And this has not been seen since the Financial Crisis: read… The US Revenue Recession Spreads past Dollar, Energy
- Fenix
- Mensajes: 16334
- Registrado: Vie Abr 23, 2010 2:36 am
Re: Jueves 09/10/15 Precios de los exportadores e importador
por Fenix » Jue Sep 10, 2015 8:23 pm
Three Reasons the Fed Cannot Let Rates Normalize
Phoenix Capital Research's picture
Submitted by Phoenix Capital Research on 09/10/2015 09:33 -0400
Analysts and commentators remain hung up on whether or not the Fed will raise rates next week.
Certain Fed officials have been stating that the Fed should commence tightening. However, with China’s bubble collapsing, dragging down the Emerging Markets, there are plenty of excuses for the Fed to postpone yet again.
Ultimately, I remain convinced that whenever the Fed does hike rates, it will largely be a symbolic rate hike, say to 0.35% or 0.5%. That will be it for some time.
I say this because the Fed cannot afford raising rates anywhere near historical norms (4%). There are three reasons for this:
1) The $9 trillion US Dollar carry trade
2) The $156 trillion in interest-rate based derivatives sitting on the big banks’ balance sheets.
3) The weak US economy cannot handle rate normalization
Regarding #1, there are over $9 trillion in borrowed US Dollars floating around the financial system invested in various assets. When you borrow in US Dollars you are effectively shorting US Dollars. So if the US Dollar strengthens, you very quickly blow up (carry trades only work when the currency you are borrowing in remains weak or stable).
The US Dollar has rallied over 20% in the last year. It is currently consolidating. But if the Fed were to raise rates significantly, the interest rate differential between the US Dollar and other major currencies (the Yen is at zero, while the Euro is negative) would result in large amounts of capital moving out of the Yen and Euro and into the US Dollar. This would blow up that $9 trillion carry trade leading to systemic risk.
Regarding #2, bonds are the senior most collateral backstopping the derivatives markets. Over 77% of derivatives are based on interest rates. This comes to roughly $156 trillion in interest rate-based derivatives… sitting on the big banks’ balance sheets.
If even 0.1% of this money is “at risk” it would wipe out 10% of the big banks equity. If 1% were “at risk” it would wipe out ALL of the big banks’ equity.
Suffice to say, the Fed cannot afford a spike in interest rates without imploding the big banks: the very banks it has spent trillions of Dollars propping up.
Finally, the US economy cannot handle a normalization interest rates.
This is not the usual “the Fed cannot raise rates ever” nonsense. It is more a structural argument. A sharp drop in business investment is what causes recessions. When businesses stop investing, job growth slows and the layoffs start soon after. This is how a recession begins.
With corporate profits already falling, US corporations already have less cash available to pay off the gargantuan debt loads they’ve accrued in the last six years (courtesy of the Fed keeping rates at zero). A spike in rates would only accelerate the pace at which corporations cut back on investment, as they have to spend more money on debt payments. This in turn would trigger a recession.
At the end of the day, the Fed has failed to implement any meaningful reform. The very issues that caused the 2008 Crisis (excessive debt, particularly in the opaque derivatives markets) are at even worse levels than they were in 2008.
Another Crisis is coming. Smart investors are preparing now.
If you've yet to take action to prepare for this, we offer a FREE investment report called the Financial Crisis "Round Two" Survival Guide that outlines simple, easy to follow strategies you can use to not only protect your portfolio from it, but actually produce profits.
We made 1,000 copies available for FREE the general public.
As we write this, there are less than 100 left.
To pick up yours…
Click Here Now!
Best Regards
Graham Summers
Chief Market Strategist
Phoenix Capital Research
Our FREE daily e-letter: http://gainspainscapital.com/
Gold Bullion Allowed As Collateral in China
GoldCore's picture
Submitted by GoldCore on 09/10/2015 09:18 -0400
China’s Shanghai Gold Exchange said it will allow physical gold to be used as collateral on futures contracts from September 29, according to a statement posted on its website this morning as reported by Reuters.
Physical gold will be permitted to be used for up to 80 percent of margin value, according to the statement.
Reuters then corrected the story and the second refiled story was changed and given a different focus:
The Shanghai Gold Exchange said on Thursday it will allow A-shares, exchange-traded funds and treasuries to be used as collateral for gold trading.
The Shanghai Gold Exchange said on Thursday it will allow A-shares, exchange-traded funds and treasuries to be used as collateral for gold trading. The move comes as Beijing unleashes a slew of measures to stave off a collapse in its stock market and restricts trading in stock index futures.
With counterparty and sovereign risk remaining high although unappreciated, gold is no longer being seen simply as a commodity – particularly in China, India and Asia. Rather, it is increasingly viewed by more astute market participants as an important asset and a currency with no counterparty risk.
Gradually, we are seeing the re-monetization of physical gold as it is being reincorporated into the modern financial and monetary system. Keynes’s ‘barbaric relic’ is becoming less barbaric by the day.
The development is an important one for the gold market and is bullish for the “pet rock.” It shows, once again, that gold is slowly but surely becoming a cash equivalent and as money again.
Gold’s re-monetisation in the international financial and monetary system continues.
Read the Reuters articles here (original) and here (updated).
Read more on the GoldCore blog
DAILY PRICES
Today’s Gold Prices: USD 1107.75, EUR 989.73 and GBP 720.32 per ounce.
Yesterday’s Gold Prices: USD 1122.30, EUR 1002.50 and GBP 730.38 per ounce.
(LBMA AM)
Gold fell 1.4% yesterday, the biggest loss in two months, to test support at $1,100 per ounce. It slid to $1,101.11, its lowest since August 11. Silver fell 1.1% and gave up some of its recent gains.
IMPORTANT NEWS
Gold at 4-week low as stocks rally, dollar rises – Reuters
Gold futures log lowest settlement in a month – MarketWatch
India’s Modi Moves Closer to Tapping Gold Hoard to Cut Imports – Bloomberg
Gold futures slightly lower, on track for a fifth straight losing session – MarketWatch
Gold ring found during roadworks in Ireland declared 12th century treasure – Independent.ie
IMPORTANT COMMENTARY
Something Just Snapped At The Comex (Updated) – Zero Hedge
Silver Bullion -NEW 100 oz poured silver bars to be available from Asahi – COINWeek
South African Gold on the Brink With Half of Mines Losing Money – Bloomberg
India’s gold monetization schemes met with skepticism – MINING.com
Druckenmiller, Soros, Icahn, Faber Like Commodities and Precious Metals – GoldSeek.com
Read more News and Commentary on GoldCore.com
Phoenix Capital Research's picture
Submitted by Phoenix Capital Research on 09/10/2015 09:33 -0400
Analysts and commentators remain hung up on whether or not the Fed will raise rates next week.
Certain Fed officials have been stating that the Fed should commence tightening. However, with China’s bubble collapsing, dragging down the Emerging Markets, there are plenty of excuses for the Fed to postpone yet again.
Ultimately, I remain convinced that whenever the Fed does hike rates, it will largely be a symbolic rate hike, say to 0.35% or 0.5%. That will be it for some time.
I say this because the Fed cannot afford raising rates anywhere near historical norms (4%). There are three reasons for this:
1) The $9 trillion US Dollar carry trade
2) The $156 trillion in interest-rate based derivatives sitting on the big banks’ balance sheets.
3) The weak US economy cannot handle rate normalization
Regarding #1, there are over $9 trillion in borrowed US Dollars floating around the financial system invested in various assets. When you borrow in US Dollars you are effectively shorting US Dollars. So if the US Dollar strengthens, you very quickly blow up (carry trades only work when the currency you are borrowing in remains weak or stable).
The US Dollar has rallied over 20% in the last year. It is currently consolidating. But if the Fed were to raise rates significantly, the interest rate differential between the US Dollar and other major currencies (the Yen is at zero, while the Euro is negative) would result in large amounts of capital moving out of the Yen and Euro and into the US Dollar. This would blow up that $9 trillion carry trade leading to systemic risk.
Regarding #2, bonds are the senior most collateral backstopping the derivatives markets. Over 77% of derivatives are based on interest rates. This comes to roughly $156 trillion in interest rate-based derivatives… sitting on the big banks’ balance sheets.
If even 0.1% of this money is “at risk” it would wipe out 10% of the big banks equity. If 1% were “at risk” it would wipe out ALL of the big banks’ equity.
Suffice to say, the Fed cannot afford a spike in interest rates without imploding the big banks: the very banks it has spent trillions of Dollars propping up.
Finally, the US economy cannot handle a normalization interest rates.
This is not the usual “the Fed cannot raise rates ever” nonsense. It is more a structural argument. A sharp drop in business investment is what causes recessions. When businesses stop investing, job growth slows and the layoffs start soon after. This is how a recession begins.
With corporate profits already falling, US corporations already have less cash available to pay off the gargantuan debt loads they’ve accrued in the last six years (courtesy of the Fed keeping rates at zero). A spike in rates would only accelerate the pace at which corporations cut back on investment, as they have to spend more money on debt payments. This in turn would trigger a recession.
At the end of the day, the Fed has failed to implement any meaningful reform. The very issues that caused the 2008 Crisis (excessive debt, particularly in the opaque derivatives markets) are at even worse levels than they were in 2008.
Another Crisis is coming. Smart investors are preparing now.
If you've yet to take action to prepare for this, we offer a FREE investment report called the Financial Crisis "Round Two" Survival Guide that outlines simple, easy to follow strategies you can use to not only protect your portfolio from it, but actually produce profits.
We made 1,000 copies available for FREE the general public.
As we write this, there are less than 100 left.
To pick up yours…
Click Here Now!
Best Regards
Graham Summers
Chief Market Strategist
Phoenix Capital Research
Our FREE daily e-letter: http://gainspainscapital.com/
Gold Bullion Allowed As Collateral in China
GoldCore's picture
Submitted by GoldCore on 09/10/2015 09:18 -0400
China’s Shanghai Gold Exchange said it will allow physical gold to be used as collateral on futures contracts from September 29, according to a statement posted on its website this morning as reported by Reuters.
Physical gold will be permitted to be used for up to 80 percent of margin value, according to the statement.
Reuters then corrected the story and the second refiled story was changed and given a different focus:
The Shanghai Gold Exchange said on Thursday it will allow A-shares, exchange-traded funds and treasuries to be used as collateral for gold trading.
The Shanghai Gold Exchange said on Thursday it will allow A-shares, exchange-traded funds and treasuries to be used as collateral for gold trading. The move comes as Beijing unleashes a slew of measures to stave off a collapse in its stock market and restricts trading in stock index futures.
With counterparty and sovereign risk remaining high although unappreciated, gold is no longer being seen simply as a commodity – particularly in China, India and Asia. Rather, it is increasingly viewed by more astute market participants as an important asset and a currency with no counterparty risk.
Gradually, we are seeing the re-monetization of physical gold as it is being reincorporated into the modern financial and monetary system. Keynes’s ‘barbaric relic’ is becoming less barbaric by the day.
The development is an important one for the gold market and is bullish for the “pet rock.” It shows, once again, that gold is slowly but surely becoming a cash equivalent and as money again.
Gold’s re-monetisation in the international financial and monetary system continues.
Read the Reuters articles here (original) and here (updated).
Read more on the GoldCore blog
DAILY PRICES
Today’s Gold Prices: USD 1107.75, EUR 989.73 and GBP 720.32 per ounce.
Yesterday’s Gold Prices: USD 1122.30, EUR 1002.50 and GBP 730.38 per ounce.
(LBMA AM)
Gold fell 1.4% yesterday, the biggest loss in two months, to test support at $1,100 per ounce. It slid to $1,101.11, its lowest since August 11. Silver fell 1.1% and gave up some of its recent gains.
IMPORTANT NEWS
Gold at 4-week low as stocks rally, dollar rises – Reuters
Gold futures log lowest settlement in a month – MarketWatch
India’s Modi Moves Closer to Tapping Gold Hoard to Cut Imports – Bloomberg
Gold futures slightly lower, on track for a fifth straight losing session – MarketWatch
Gold ring found during roadworks in Ireland declared 12th century treasure – Independent.ie
IMPORTANT COMMENTARY
Something Just Snapped At The Comex (Updated) – Zero Hedge
Silver Bullion -NEW 100 oz poured silver bars to be available from Asahi – COINWeek
South African Gold on the Brink With Half of Mines Losing Money – Bloomberg
India’s gold monetization schemes met with skepticism – MINING.com
Druckenmiller, Soros, Icahn, Faber Like Commodities and Precious Metals – GoldSeek.com
Read more News and Commentary on GoldCore.com
- Fenix
- Mensajes: 16334
- Registrado: Vie Abr 23, 2010 2:36 am
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