Why The Keynesian Market Wreckers Are Now Coming For Your Ben Franklins
Submitted by Tyler D.
02/18/2016 - 10:54
Larry Summers is a pretentious Keynesian fool, but we refer to him as the Great Thinker’s Vicar on Earth for a reason. To wit, every time the latest experiment in Keynesian intervention fails - as 84 months of ZIRP and massive QE clearly have - he can be counted on to trot out a new angle on why still another interventionist experiment or state sponsored financial fraud is just the ticket. Right now he is leading the charge for the greatest stroke of foolishness yet conceived.
World's Largest Hedge Fund In Trouble? Bridgewater Pure Alpha Loses Over 10% In Two Weeks
Submitted by Tyler D.
02/18/2016 - 10:30
Not all is beautiful in Ray Dalio's "beautifully deleveraging" world.
"Worst Since Lehman"
Submitted by Tyler D.
02/18/2016 - 09:46
If "everything's fixed," then why is the number of distressed debt issuers still the highest "since Lehman."
China Unleashes A Debt Tsunami: Creates $1 Trillion In Debt In First Two Months Of 2016
Submitted by Tyler D.
02/18/2016 - 09:19
New loans so far in February were similar to the levels during the same days of January. The total so far in February is seen at around CNY2 trillion already. This means that if the TSF components rose at a comparable rate as in January, then the total increase in aggregate Chinese debt is on pace to surpass CNY6.5 trillion, or $1 trillion in new debt created in 2 months!
Jueves 18/02/16 Indicadores lideres
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Re: Jueves 18/02/16 Indicadores lideres
por Fenix » Jue Feb 18, 2016 2:03 pm
- Fenix
- Mensajes: 16334
- Registrado: Vie Abr 23, 2010 2:36 am
Re: Jueves 18/02/16 Indicadores lideres
por Fenix » Jue Feb 18, 2016 2:12 pm
First Iran, Now Iraq Refuses To Commit To Oil Production Freeze
Submitted by Tyler D.
02/18/2016 - 08:30
Yesterday, as part of its own meeting, Iran made it clear that while it supports efforts to push the price of oil higher, it would certainly not limit its output at current levels, and instead requires an explicit loophole granting it a production limit from the pre-sanctions period. This put OPEC in a bind: if it grants Iran special treatment, then who else will have a similar request. The answer was revealed just hours later when Iraq earlier today stopped short of saying it would curb production of oil to prop up sagging prices, saying negotiations are still ongoing between members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries.
Wal-Mart Tumbles Despite Earnings Beat After Revenue And Same Store Sales Miss, Guidance Cut
Submitted by Tyler D.
02/18/2016 - 07:21
The bad news for the company which many thought had "kitchen sinked" all near-term disappointment three months ago was that revenue of $129.7 billion missed expectations by $900 million, that Free Cash Flow declined notably to $15.9 billion for the full year compared to $16.4 billion the year before, that Operating Income continues to drop far faster than revenues, either with or without FX suggesting costs increases are far greater than the offsetting topline and that it slashed guidance on the top-line saying that net sales growth is now "expected to be relatively flat, which compares to the previous estimate for growth of 3 to 4 percent on a constant currency basis."
Biggest Short Squeeze In 7 Years Continues After Bullard Hints At More QE, OECD Cuts Global Forecasts
Submitted by Tyler D.
02/18/2016 - 07:00
Just when traders thought that the biggest and most violent 3-day short squeeze in 7 years was about to end a squeeze that has resulted in 3 consecutve 1%+ sessions for the S&P for the first time since October 2011, overnight we got one of the Fed's biggest faux-hakws, St. Louis Fed's Jim Bullard, who said that it would be "unwise" to continue hiking rates at this moment, and hinted that "if needed", the most natural option for the Fed going forward would be to do further Q.E.
Bullard Admits It's "Unwise" To Continue Rate Hikes, Says "If Needed" Will Do More QE
Submitted by Tyler D.
02/17/2016 - 21:58
What should be most troubling for the Fed is that while any other time a Fed hint of more QE would have sent futures soaring, that this time nothing is happening as a result of the "second Bullard moment" is the most disturbing sign that not only can the Fed can no longer jawbone the market higher, even with the most nonsensical statements and hidden promises, but that the Fed is on the verge of losing control of the market.
Submitted by Tyler D.
02/18/2016 - 08:30
Yesterday, as part of its own meeting, Iran made it clear that while it supports efforts to push the price of oil higher, it would certainly not limit its output at current levels, and instead requires an explicit loophole granting it a production limit from the pre-sanctions period. This put OPEC in a bind: if it grants Iran special treatment, then who else will have a similar request. The answer was revealed just hours later when Iraq earlier today stopped short of saying it would curb production of oil to prop up sagging prices, saying negotiations are still ongoing between members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries.
Wal-Mart Tumbles Despite Earnings Beat After Revenue And Same Store Sales Miss, Guidance Cut
Submitted by Tyler D.
02/18/2016 - 07:21
The bad news for the company which many thought had "kitchen sinked" all near-term disappointment three months ago was that revenue of $129.7 billion missed expectations by $900 million, that Free Cash Flow declined notably to $15.9 billion for the full year compared to $16.4 billion the year before, that Operating Income continues to drop far faster than revenues, either with or without FX suggesting costs increases are far greater than the offsetting topline and that it slashed guidance on the top-line saying that net sales growth is now "expected to be relatively flat, which compares to the previous estimate for growth of 3 to 4 percent on a constant currency basis."
Biggest Short Squeeze In 7 Years Continues After Bullard Hints At More QE, OECD Cuts Global Forecasts
Submitted by Tyler D.
02/18/2016 - 07:00
Just when traders thought that the biggest and most violent 3-day short squeeze in 7 years was about to end a squeeze that has resulted in 3 consecutve 1%+ sessions for the S&P for the first time since October 2011, overnight we got one of the Fed's biggest faux-hakws, St. Louis Fed's Jim Bullard, who said that it would be "unwise" to continue hiking rates at this moment, and hinted that "if needed", the most natural option for the Fed going forward would be to do further Q.E.
Bullard Admits It's "Unwise" To Continue Rate Hikes, Says "If Needed" Will Do More QE
Submitted by Tyler D.
02/17/2016 - 21:58
What should be most troubling for the Fed is that while any other time a Fed hint of more QE would have sent futures soaring, that this time nothing is happening as a result of the "second Bullard moment" is the most disturbing sign that not only can the Fed can no longer jawbone the market higher, even with the most nonsensical statements and hidden promises, but that the Fed is on the verge of losing control of the market.
- Fenix
- Mensajes: 16334
- Registrado: Vie Abr 23, 2010 2:36 am
Re: Jueves 18/02/16 Indicadores lideres
por Fenix » Jue Feb 18, 2016 2:24 pm
14:17 Time Warner: nuestro punto de rotación se sitúa en 68.5
Trading Central
Nuestro punto de rotación se sitúa en 68.5.
Nuestra preferencia: la caída se mantiene siempre que la resistencia se sitúe en 68.5.
Escenario alternativo: por encima de 68.5, objetivo 72.8 y 75.4.
Técnicamente, el índice de fuerza relativa (RSI) se encuentra por debajo de su zona de neutralidad de 50. El indicador de convergencia/divergencia de medias móviles (MACD) se sitúa por debajo de su línea de señal y es negativo.
Asimismo, la acción se sitúa por debajo de su media móvil de 20 y 50 días (se sitúa a 68.02 y 67.43 respectivamente).
Venezuela Devalues Currency By 37% As Maduro Announces 62-Fold Increase In Gasoline Prices
Submitted by Tyler D.
02/17/2016 - 21:04
Maybe because between the specter of defaulting in under three months, the threat of handing over its gold to Deutsche Bank, or the reality of rampant hyperinflation and a collapsing society, the already crushed population of Venezuela did not have enough things to worry about, moments ago Venezuela's Nicolas Maduro unveiled a double whammy of "shock and awe" when the socialist president not only announced the latest devaluation of the country's official currency, but also presented his countrymen with the first gasoline price increase since 1996.
China Food Prices Soar Most Since 2013 As Producer Prices Hit 47th Straight Month Of Deflation
Submitted by Tyler D.
02/17/2016 - 20:55
Another month and another massive deflationary print for Chinese Producer Prices. Year-over-year, PPI dropped 5.3% ('better' than the 5.3% drop expected and the 5.9% plunge last month) making this the 47th month in a row of deflation with mining's collapse picking up again to -19.8% YoY. On th emore worrisome side, CPI rose 1.8% YoY, below expectations of +1.9% but still the hottest consumer price rise since August (and this was amid the greatest credit binge in history) driven by the biggest jump in food prices since 2013.
Australia Stops "Cooking" Its Jobs Report And The Result Is A Disaster: Full-Time Jobs Plunge Most Since 2013
Submitted by Tyler D.
02/17/2016 - 20:20
One week ago, when we reported that Australia had admitted to cooking its jobs numbers, we said that what this means is that : "Australia need more easing, and to do that, the economy has to go from strong to crap." And with the Australian economy suddenly desperate for lower rates from the RBA, one can ignore the propaganda lies, and focus once again on the far uglier truth. That "far uglier truth" was revealed moments ago.
Housing 'Recovery' Hope Humbled As Billings & Purchases Plunge
Submitted by Tyler D.
02/17/2016 - 20:00
Following this morning's weak Starts and Permits data, even homebuilders are starting to lose faith in the recovery meme but there is a long way to go before that is priced in. Perhaps the follwoing two data points will help to wake up the rest of the investing public that all is not as well as hoped. For the 3rd week in a row mortgage applications for purchases slid (reflecting the 'now') and even more worrying, Architecture Billings tumbled into contraction (below 50) throwing doubt on the imminent future as the inquiry index plunged from 60.5 to 55.3.
"Perma-bears" 2 - BofA Economist 0
Submitted by Tyler D.
02/17/2016 18:00 -0500
It was just last month when we checked in on BofA economist Ethan Harris who, in May of 2015 derided the “perma-bear” crowd for crowing about an abysmal Q1 GDP print.
“Looking ahead, it is much too soon to declare victory, but we expect the data to improve in the months ahead as seasonal and other distortions fade,” Harris concluded, suggesting that if the double-adjusted data continued to “improve”, BofA’s economics team would be able to proclaim that the bears had been vanquished once and for all.
8 months later, Harris admitted that “a series of shocks have undercut [his] optimism.” Those shocks are, i) slumping oil prices, ii) the demise of HY, iii) generally terrible news from the US industrial sector, and iv) market “moodiness” related to China and oil.
Of course all of those factors were already at play at the beginning of last year. Saudi Arabia had already begun its war on the US shale space which would have been all the evidence you needed to predict both the collapse of oil prices and the turmoil in HY, it was already abundantly clear that US corporates were eschewing capex for buybacks, and if you didn’t see the writing on the wall in China by January of 2015, then you can’t really call yourself an economist.
“Who could have possibly anticipated these ‘shocks’"?, we asked last month. “Oh yes, those pesky perma-bears, who actually looked at all economic indicators, not just the ones goalseeked to validate some initial (and erroneous) hypothesis,” we said, answering our own question as we are so very often forced to do.
BofA went on to lower their 2016 GDP forecast from 2.3% to 2.1%.
On Wednesday, Harris is back and although he’s doing his best to stay positive (bless his heart), he’s willing to admit that “recent market fragility” will likely force the Fed to lean more dovish and he also says “the stock market is pricing in a 50% or so probability of a recession.”
Apparently, Harris is also "surprised" by the strength of the dollar (because who could have seen that coming given the epic diveregence in monetary policy between the Fed and other DM CBs) and the tightening in financial conditions. He also concedes that "Q4 GDP growth was particularly weak." Here's an excerpt from Harris' latest note:
It has been an ugly start to the New Year: at Friday’s close, the S&P 500 was down 8.8% year to date (11.6% off its November high), 10-year treasury yields were down about 50bp ytd, and there had been a further widening in high yield spreads. Capital markets seem to be pricing in a 50% or higher probability of a US recession. For example, a simple probit model shows that the 6 month growth rate in the S&P500—falling by 8.8% from July to January — is signaling a 49% chance of a recession starting sometime in the next 12 months (Chart 3). Our rates team has developed an adjusted yield curve measure that signals a 68% probability of recession.
But don't worry, Harris believes the market as well as BofA's rate team may be "peddling fiction." Here's why:
In our view, the weakness in 4Q GDP reflects both the erratic nature of recent GDP releases and some temporary factors holding down growth. The weakness in the second half of last year also reflects three partly temporary headwinds.
Inventories rose about $113bn in both 1Q and 2Q last year. That is about double the sustainable pace. With moderate sales growth, companies were forced to slow production to slow the accumulation. Investment has now slowed to $69bn, slicing 0.7pp and 0.5pp off of growth in the last two quarters. As a result, we believe the adjustment is largely over: we expect a 0.2pp drag from inventories in 1Q and no drag thereafter. A similar story applies for the collapse in the mining sector: the worst is behind us. The third, and most important, headwind is the strong dollar.
And while Harris doesn't necessarily see the strong dollar problem as being "temporary" like the other headwinds facing the econony, he does say it's important to remember that "the equity market is not the economy" (an effort to downplay the market's pricing in of a looming recession).
Harris is right. The equity market is not the economy. Although judging by the Fed's new reaction function, we're not sure Janet Yellen agrees.
Trading Central
Nuestro punto de rotación se sitúa en 68.5.
Nuestra preferencia: la caída se mantiene siempre que la resistencia se sitúe en 68.5.
Escenario alternativo: por encima de 68.5, objetivo 72.8 y 75.4.
Técnicamente, el índice de fuerza relativa (RSI) se encuentra por debajo de su zona de neutralidad de 50. El indicador de convergencia/divergencia de medias móviles (MACD) se sitúa por debajo de su línea de señal y es negativo.
Asimismo, la acción se sitúa por debajo de su media móvil de 20 y 50 días (se sitúa a 68.02 y 67.43 respectivamente).
Venezuela Devalues Currency By 37% As Maduro Announces 62-Fold Increase In Gasoline Prices
Submitted by Tyler D.
02/17/2016 - 21:04
Maybe because between the specter of defaulting in under three months, the threat of handing over its gold to Deutsche Bank, or the reality of rampant hyperinflation and a collapsing society, the already crushed population of Venezuela did not have enough things to worry about, moments ago Venezuela's Nicolas Maduro unveiled a double whammy of "shock and awe" when the socialist president not only announced the latest devaluation of the country's official currency, but also presented his countrymen with the first gasoline price increase since 1996.
China Food Prices Soar Most Since 2013 As Producer Prices Hit 47th Straight Month Of Deflation
Submitted by Tyler D.
02/17/2016 - 20:55
Another month and another massive deflationary print for Chinese Producer Prices. Year-over-year, PPI dropped 5.3% ('better' than the 5.3% drop expected and the 5.9% plunge last month) making this the 47th month in a row of deflation with mining's collapse picking up again to -19.8% YoY. On th emore worrisome side, CPI rose 1.8% YoY, below expectations of +1.9% but still the hottest consumer price rise since August (and this was amid the greatest credit binge in history) driven by the biggest jump in food prices since 2013.
Australia Stops "Cooking" Its Jobs Report And The Result Is A Disaster: Full-Time Jobs Plunge Most Since 2013
Submitted by Tyler D.
02/17/2016 - 20:20
One week ago, when we reported that Australia had admitted to cooking its jobs numbers, we said that what this means is that : "Australia need more easing, and to do that, the economy has to go from strong to crap." And with the Australian economy suddenly desperate for lower rates from the RBA, one can ignore the propaganda lies, and focus once again on the far uglier truth. That "far uglier truth" was revealed moments ago.
Housing 'Recovery' Hope Humbled As Billings & Purchases Plunge
Submitted by Tyler D.
02/17/2016 - 20:00
Following this morning's weak Starts and Permits data, even homebuilders are starting to lose faith in the recovery meme but there is a long way to go before that is priced in. Perhaps the follwoing two data points will help to wake up the rest of the investing public that all is not as well as hoped. For the 3rd week in a row mortgage applications for purchases slid (reflecting the 'now') and even more worrying, Architecture Billings tumbled into contraction (below 50) throwing doubt on the imminent future as the inquiry index plunged from 60.5 to 55.3.
"Perma-bears" 2 - BofA Economist 0
Submitted by Tyler D.
02/17/2016 18:00 -0500
It was just last month when we checked in on BofA economist Ethan Harris who, in May of 2015 derided the “perma-bear” crowd for crowing about an abysmal Q1 GDP print.
“Looking ahead, it is much too soon to declare victory, but we expect the data to improve in the months ahead as seasonal and other distortions fade,” Harris concluded, suggesting that if the double-adjusted data continued to “improve”, BofA’s economics team would be able to proclaim that the bears had been vanquished once and for all.
8 months later, Harris admitted that “a series of shocks have undercut [his] optimism.” Those shocks are, i) slumping oil prices, ii) the demise of HY, iii) generally terrible news from the US industrial sector, and iv) market “moodiness” related to China and oil.
Of course all of those factors were already at play at the beginning of last year. Saudi Arabia had already begun its war on the US shale space which would have been all the evidence you needed to predict both the collapse of oil prices and the turmoil in HY, it was already abundantly clear that US corporates were eschewing capex for buybacks, and if you didn’t see the writing on the wall in China by January of 2015, then you can’t really call yourself an economist.
“Who could have possibly anticipated these ‘shocks’"?, we asked last month. “Oh yes, those pesky perma-bears, who actually looked at all economic indicators, not just the ones goalseeked to validate some initial (and erroneous) hypothesis,” we said, answering our own question as we are so very often forced to do.
BofA went on to lower their 2016 GDP forecast from 2.3% to 2.1%.
On Wednesday, Harris is back and although he’s doing his best to stay positive (bless his heart), he’s willing to admit that “recent market fragility” will likely force the Fed to lean more dovish and he also says “the stock market is pricing in a 50% or so probability of a recession.”
Apparently, Harris is also "surprised" by the strength of the dollar (because who could have seen that coming given the epic diveregence in monetary policy between the Fed and other DM CBs) and the tightening in financial conditions. He also concedes that "Q4 GDP growth was particularly weak." Here's an excerpt from Harris' latest note:
It has been an ugly start to the New Year: at Friday’s close, the S&P 500 was down 8.8% year to date (11.6% off its November high), 10-year treasury yields were down about 50bp ytd, and there had been a further widening in high yield spreads. Capital markets seem to be pricing in a 50% or higher probability of a US recession. For example, a simple probit model shows that the 6 month growth rate in the S&P500—falling by 8.8% from July to January — is signaling a 49% chance of a recession starting sometime in the next 12 months (Chart 3). Our rates team has developed an adjusted yield curve measure that signals a 68% probability of recession.
But don't worry, Harris believes the market as well as BofA's rate team may be "peddling fiction." Here's why:
In our view, the weakness in 4Q GDP reflects both the erratic nature of recent GDP releases and some temporary factors holding down growth. The weakness in the second half of last year also reflects three partly temporary headwinds.
Inventories rose about $113bn in both 1Q and 2Q last year. That is about double the sustainable pace. With moderate sales growth, companies were forced to slow production to slow the accumulation. Investment has now slowed to $69bn, slicing 0.7pp and 0.5pp off of growth in the last two quarters. As a result, we believe the adjustment is largely over: we expect a 0.2pp drag from inventories in 1Q and no drag thereafter. A similar story applies for the collapse in the mining sector: the worst is behind us. The third, and most important, headwind is the strong dollar.
And while Harris doesn't necessarily see the strong dollar problem as being "temporary" like the other headwinds facing the econony, he does say it's important to remember that "the equity market is not the economy" (an effort to downplay the market's pricing in of a looming recession).
Harris is right. The equity market is not the economy. Although judging by the Fed's new reaction function, we're not sure Janet Yellen agrees.
Última edición por Fenix el Jue Feb 18, 2016 2:30 pm, editado 1 vez en total
- Fenix
- Mensajes: 16334
- Registrado: Vie Abr 23, 2010 2:36 am
Re: Jueves 18/02/16 Indicadores lideres
por admin » Jue Feb 18, 2016 2:30 pm
Mercado laboral de EEUU mejora, pero manufacturas aún vacilan
Por Lucia Mutikani
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - El número de estadounidenses que presentaron nuevas solicitudes de subsidios por desempleo cayó inesperadamente la semana pasada, apuntando a una fortaleza del mercado laboral que podría mantener sobre la mesa a las alzas de las tasas de interés de la Reserva Federal este año.
Otros datos publicados el jueves mostraron que la actividad fabril en la región norte de la Costa Este se contrajo a un ritmo más lento en febrero y apuntó a un repunte en el crecimiento salarial. Sin embargo, las señales de estabilización en el vacilante sector manufacturero fueron contenidas por más declives en nuevos pedidos y empleo.
"La economía está mejor de lo que creen los mercados. No descartaríamos otra alza de tasas en la reunión de marzo debido a que las turbulencias del mercado financiero se disipan y el panorama económico permanece positivo", comentó Chris Rupkey, economista jefe de MUFG Union Bank en Nueva York.
Economistas proyectaban que los pedidos subieran a 275.000 la semana pasada. El promedio móvil de cuatro semanas para nuevos pedidos, considerado una mejor medición de las tendencias del mercado laboral debido a que elimina la volatilidad semanal, bajó en 8.000, a 273.250, la semana pasada.
El promedio móvil de cuatro semanas para nuevas solicitudes bajaron en 12.000 entre los períodos del sondeo entre enero y febrero, lo que sugiere una aceleración en el crecimiento del empleo.
En un segundo reporte, la Reserva Federal de Filadelfia dijo que su índice de actividad fabril aumentó a una lectura de -2,8 este mes desde -3,5 en enero. El índice ha sido negativo por seis meses consecutivos.
Las fábricas en el este del estado de Pensilvania, en el sur de Nueva Jersey y en Delaware siguieron reportando una reducción de los pedidos e inventarios este mes.
Aunque las fábricas reportaron un declive en el empleo y las horas trabajadas, las firmas estimaban que la compensación, salarios y beneficios para empleadores subirán más de un 3 por ciento en los próximos cuatro trimestres.
Los reportes no tuvieron mayor impacto en las acciones estadounidenses, que operaban mixtas después de que Walmart reportó una caída en sus ganancias trimestrales y redujo su pronóstico para todo el año.
El dólar se apreció frente a una cesta de monedas y tocó un máximo nivel en dos semanas frente al euro, mientras que los precios de los bonos del Tesoro de Estados Unidos subieron.
La salud del mercado laboral estadounidense podría determinar si la Fed eleva o no más las tasas de interés este año. El banco central estadounidense elevó la tasa de interés referencial a un día en diciembre, la primera en casi una década.
Un tercer reporte del grupo privado The Conference Board mostró que sus indicadores anticipados cayeron en enero por segundo mes consecutivo debido a la volatilidad del mercado de acciones.
Por Lucia Mutikani
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - El número de estadounidenses que presentaron nuevas solicitudes de subsidios por desempleo cayó inesperadamente la semana pasada, apuntando a una fortaleza del mercado laboral que podría mantener sobre la mesa a las alzas de las tasas de interés de la Reserva Federal este año.
Otros datos publicados el jueves mostraron que la actividad fabril en la región norte de la Costa Este se contrajo a un ritmo más lento en febrero y apuntó a un repunte en el crecimiento salarial. Sin embargo, las señales de estabilización en el vacilante sector manufacturero fueron contenidas por más declives en nuevos pedidos y empleo.
"La economía está mejor de lo que creen los mercados. No descartaríamos otra alza de tasas en la reunión de marzo debido a que las turbulencias del mercado financiero se disipan y el panorama económico permanece positivo", comentó Chris Rupkey, economista jefe de MUFG Union Bank en Nueva York.
Economistas proyectaban que los pedidos subieran a 275.000 la semana pasada. El promedio móvil de cuatro semanas para nuevos pedidos, considerado una mejor medición de las tendencias del mercado laboral debido a que elimina la volatilidad semanal, bajó en 8.000, a 273.250, la semana pasada.
El promedio móvil de cuatro semanas para nuevas solicitudes bajaron en 12.000 entre los períodos del sondeo entre enero y febrero, lo que sugiere una aceleración en el crecimiento del empleo.
En un segundo reporte, la Reserva Federal de Filadelfia dijo que su índice de actividad fabril aumentó a una lectura de -2,8 este mes desde -3,5 en enero. El índice ha sido negativo por seis meses consecutivos.
Las fábricas en el este del estado de Pensilvania, en el sur de Nueva Jersey y en Delaware siguieron reportando una reducción de los pedidos e inventarios este mes.
Aunque las fábricas reportaron un declive en el empleo y las horas trabajadas, las firmas estimaban que la compensación, salarios y beneficios para empleadores subirán más de un 3 por ciento en los próximos cuatro trimestres.
Los reportes no tuvieron mayor impacto en las acciones estadounidenses, que operaban mixtas después de que Walmart reportó una caída en sus ganancias trimestrales y redujo su pronóstico para todo el año.
El dólar se apreció frente a una cesta de monedas y tocó un máximo nivel en dos semanas frente al euro, mientras que los precios de los bonos del Tesoro de Estados Unidos subieron.
La salud del mercado laboral estadounidense podría determinar si la Fed eleva o no más las tasas de interés este año. El banco central estadounidense elevó la tasa de interés referencial a un día en diciembre, la primera en casi una década.
Un tercer reporte del grupo privado The Conference Board mostró que sus indicadores anticipados cayeron en enero por segundo mes consecutivo debido a la volatilidad del mercado de acciones.
- admin
- Site Admin
- Mensajes: 164292
- Registrado: Mié Abr 21, 2010 9:02 pm
Re: Jueves 18/02/16 Indicadores lideres
por admin » Jue Feb 18, 2016 2:32 pm
Economía venezolana se hunde 5,7 pct en 2015, inflación casi se triplica
Por Eyanir Chinea
CARACAS (Reuters) - La economía venezolana registró en 2015 el peor desempeño de un país de América, con una contracción de 5,7 por ciento y una inflación que casi se triplicó, golpeada por el impacto del derrumbe de los precios del crudo, según cifras oficiales divulgadas el jueves.
El Banco Central de Venezuela (BCV) publicó los datos horas después de que el presidente Nicolás Maduro anunciara medidas para paliar la crisis económica, que incluyeron el alza de los precios de la gasolina más barata del mundo, tras casi 20 años congelados, y una devaluación del 37 por ciento.
La economía del país petrolero sudamericano prolongó la recesión que comenzó a principios del 2014 y cerró el año pasado con la inflación más alta del mundo, de un 180,9 por ciento.
La peor parte del descalabro se la llevó el sector privado, con un decrecimiento del 8,4 por ciento en el 2015, por la menor disponibilidad de materias primas en medio de la escasez de divisas, lo cual atrofió la manufactura. El sector público se expandió 1,1 por ciento.
El Producto Interno Bruto (PIB) del sector petrolero, clave para las finanzas locales, decreció un 0,9 por ciento y la economía no petrolera se desplomó un 5,6 por ciento, detalló el BCV en un informe.
"A esto se suma la situación de desabastecimiento de productos, lo cual es percibido por la población como uno de los principales problemas que aquejan al país, junto a la especulación y el acaparamiento", argumentó el emisor en referencia a la aguda escasez de alimentos y medicinas.
No obstante, el instituto no publicó el índice de escasez que dejó de divulgar hace dos años cuando comenzó a subir sin control. Las largas filas se han vuelto comunes en las afueras de los mercados y farmacias de todo el país.
Los precios de los alimentos y bebidas fueron los que más crecieron el año pasado, un 315 por ciento; seguidos por los de restaurantes y hoteles, que se incrementaron en un 294,1 por ciento, precisaron los datos.
Asimismo, los precios de rubros sensibles como vestido y calzado aumentaron un 146,5 por ciento, mientras que los costos de la salud más que se duplicaron.
El Gobierno de Maduro sostiene que los desequilibrios son parte de una "guerra económica" llevada a cabo por la oposición y empresarios inescrupulosos. Pero sus adversarios dicen que la crisis es el corolario de más de una década de controles que han golpeado el aparato productivo e incrementado la dependencia de las exportaciones petroleras.
"TARDE Y POCO"
Entre las medidas anunciadas el miércoles en la noche por Maduro también está el alza progresiva de los precios de un centenar de productos, cuyos valores se mantienen congelados desde hace años por controles estatales.
Analistas concordaron en que las medidas presentadas por Maduro se quedarían cortas para cerrar la brecha del déficit dejado por el derrumbe de los ingresos -que el Gobierno calcula en 70 por ciento-, pero los aliados del presidente las avalaron.
"El Partido Socialista Unido de Venezuela saluda y respalda activamente los anuncios (...) que realizó nuestro Presidente con el objetivo de derrotar la guerra económica y rescatar la estabilidad", dijo el oficialista PSUV en un comunicado.
Entre otros datos, el BCV también informó que la cuenta corriente del país anotó un déficit de 18.150 millones de dólares en 2015, mientras que la cuenta capital y financiera mostró un resultado positivo de 16.507 millones de dólares.
Las exportaciones cayeron un 50 por ciento, en línea con la baja del precio de la cesta de crudo venezolana. Las importaciones retrocedieron un 22,3 por ciento.
"Los anuncios fueron similares a lo esperado y, quizá, más simbólicos que sustantivos", opinó Siobhan Morden, de la banca de inversión Nomura. "Son insuficientes para corregir las distorsiones o resolver la disponibilidad de efectivo".
Algunos venezolanos coincidieron con los economistas.
"Las medidas de Maduro no van a solucionar la crisis en que vivimos (...) Ya es muy tarde. Nada va a cambiar. Hoy, por ejemplo, la cola es más larga que ayer", dijo María Hernández, una ama de cada de 45 años que esperaba en un larga fila para poder entrar a un supermercado del este de Caracas.
A pesar del ahorro que significará el aumento de la gasolina, analistas todavía dudan que Venezuela tenga la capacidad de honrar su deuda internacional en la segunda mitad del año, cuando la estatal PDVSA y la República deben pagar casi 5.000 millones de dólares.
Desde el viernes, la gasolina de más alto octanaje costará 62 veces más, pero aún será una de las más baratas del mundo.
Los aumentos del combustible en Venezuela suelen estar relacionados con explosiones sociales. Un recorrido de Reuters la mañana del jueves constató que en las principales ciudades del país las actividades se mantenían con normalidad.
La deuda soberana venezolana también parecía asimilar los anuncios y siguiendo el alza del crudo se movía en terreno positivo al inicio de la jornada, con el marcador del mercado, el Global 2027, cotizando un 0,8 por ciento por encima.
Por Eyanir Chinea
CARACAS (Reuters) - La economía venezolana registró en 2015 el peor desempeño de un país de América, con una contracción de 5,7 por ciento y una inflación que casi se triplicó, golpeada por el impacto del derrumbe de los precios del crudo, según cifras oficiales divulgadas el jueves.
El Banco Central de Venezuela (BCV) publicó los datos horas después de que el presidente Nicolás Maduro anunciara medidas para paliar la crisis económica, que incluyeron el alza de los precios de la gasolina más barata del mundo, tras casi 20 años congelados, y una devaluación del 37 por ciento.
La economía del país petrolero sudamericano prolongó la recesión que comenzó a principios del 2014 y cerró el año pasado con la inflación más alta del mundo, de un 180,9 por ciento.
La peor parte del descalabro se la llevó el sector privado, con un decrecimiento del 8,4 por ciento en el 2015, por la menor disponibilidad de materias primas en medio de la escasez de divisas, lo cual atrofió la manufactura. El sector público se expandió 1,1 por ciento.
El Producto Interno Bruto (PIB) del sector petrolero, clave para las finanzas locales, decreció un 0,9 por ciento y la economía no petrolera se desplomó un 5,6 por ciento, detalló el BCV en un informe.
"A esto se suma la situación de desabastecimiento de productos, lo cual es percibido por la población como uno de los principales problemas que aquejan al país, junto a la especulación y el acaparamiento", argumentó el emisor en referencia a la aguda escasez de alimentos y medicinas.
No obstante, el instituto no publicó el índice de escasez que dejó de divulgar hace dos años cuando comenzó a subir sin control. Las largas filas se han vuelto comunes en las afueras de los mercados y farmacias de todo el país.
Los precios de los alimentos y bebidas fueron los que más crecieron el año pasado, un 315 por ciento; seguidos por los de restaurantes y hoteles, que se incrementaron en un 294,1 por ciento, precisaron los datos.
Asimismo, los precios de rubros sensibles como vestido y calzado aumentaron un 146,5 por ciento, mientras que los costos de la salud más que se duplicaron.
El Gobierno de Maduro sostiene que los desequilibrios son parte de una "guerra económica" llevada a cabo por la oposición y empresarios inescrupulosos. Pero sus adversarios dicen que la crisis es el corolario de más de una década de controles que han golpeado el aparato productivo e incrementado la dependencia de las exportaciones petroleras.
"TARDE Y POCO"
Entre las medidas anunciadas el miércoles en la noche por Maduro también está el alza progresiva de los precios de un centenar de productos, cuyos valores se mantienen congelados desde hace años por controles estatales.
Analistas concordaron en que las medidas presentadas por Maduro se quedarían cortas para cerrar la brecha del déficit dejado por el derrumbe de los ingresos -que el Gobierno calcula en 70 por ciento-, pero los aliados del presidente las avalaron.
"El Partido Socialista Unido de Venezuela saluda y respalda activamente los anuncios (...) que realizó nuestro Presidente con el objetivo de derrotar la guerra económica y rescatar la estabilidad", dijo el oficialista PSUV en un comunicado.
Entre otros datos, el BCV también informó que la cuenta corriente del país anotó un déficit de 18.150 millones de dólares en 2015, mientras que la cuenta capital y financiera mostró un resultado positivo de 16.507 millones de dólares.
Las exportaciones cayeron un 50 por ciento, en línea con la baja del precio de la cesta de crudo venezolana. Las importaciones retrocedieron un 22,3 por ciento.
"Los anuncios fueron similares a lo esperado y, quizá, más simbólicos que sustantivos", opinó Siobhan Morden, de la banca de inversión Nomura. "Son insuficientes para corregir las distorsiones o resolver la disponibilidad de efectivo".
Algunos venezolanos coincidieron con los economistas.
"Las medidas de Maduro no van a solucionar la crisis en que vivimos (...) Ya es muy tarde. Nada va a cambiar. Hoy, por ejemplo, la cola es más larga que ayer", dijo María Hernández, una ama de cada de 45 años que esperaba en un larga fila para poder entrar a un supermercado del este de Caracas.
A pesar del ahorro que significará el aumento de la gasolina, analistas todavía dudan que Venezuela tenga la capacidad de honrar su deuda internacional en la segunda mitad del año, cuando la estatal PDVSA y la República deben pagar casi 5.000 millones de dólares.
Desde el viernes, la gasolina de más alto octanaje costará 62 veces más, pero aún será una de las más baratas del mundo.
Los aumentos del combustible en Venezuela suelen estar relacionados con explosiones sociales. Un recorrido de Reuters la mañana del jueves constató que en las principales ciudades del país las actividades se mantenían con normalidad.
La deuda soberana venezolana también parecía asimilar los anuncios y siguiendo el alza del crudo se movía en terreno positivo al inicio de la jornada, con el marcador del mercado, el Global 2027, cotizando un 0,8 por ciento por encima.
- admin
- Site Admin
- Mensajes: 164292
- Registrado: Mié Abr 21, 2010 9:02 pm
Re: Jueves 18/02/16 Indicadores lideres
por Fenix » Jue Feb 18, 2016 2:36 pm
14:32 Pimco ve un 40% de probabilidad de Brexit
Pimco, la gestora de fondos, dice que hay una probabilidad del 40 por ciento de que Gran Bretaña salga de la UE en el próximo referéndum, un resultado que podría tener un impacto "de larga duración" en el mercado.
Mike Amey, un gestor de cartera de Pimco, ha llegado a la conclusión de que la probabilidad de un Brexit es del 40 por ciento a la luz de los intensos desafíos a los que David Cameron se enfrenta para obtener concesiones por parte de la UE "de una forma universalmente aceptable", así como por las recientes encuestas que muestran un lto grado de incertidumbre.
If Oil Stays At $35, This Is What Energy Company Leverage Will Look Like
Submitted by Tyler D.
02/17/2016 15:40 -0500
With the market enjoying its biggest three-day short-squeeze since 2011, one can be forgiven to forget, if only briefly, that nothing has been fixed. Furthermore, if the OPEC meetings of the past two days have demonstrated anything, it is to confirm that not only is OPEC finished as a cartel, but that OPEC has no power over the marginal oil producers in Texas, aside from bankrupting them by pressuring prices lower.
Which is precisely what it will do.
And going back to the original point of how nothing has been fixed, here is a chart from DB showing what will happen to the average oil and gas company net debt/EBITDA ratio if oil rises to and remains at $35/bbl.
Why is $35 important? Becase as a recent Wood MacKenzie study found, less than 4% of the world's oil supply is actually in the red at that price. Here's Platts:
Citing up-to-date analysis of production data and cash costs from over 10,000 oil fields, Wood Mac said it believes 3.4 million b/d, or less than 4% of global oil supply, is unprofitable at oil prices below $35/b.
Even the majority of US shale and tight oil, which has been under the spotlight due to higher-than-average production costs, only becomes cash negative at Brent prices "well-below" $30/b, according to the study.
This is what is sure to make the Saudis very frustrated:
Despite widespread fears of a major supply collapse, the US' shale oil output since late 2014, sharp deflation in service sector costs and greater drilling efficiencies have seen shale oil output remain more resilient to lower prices than first thought.
Wood Mac said falling production costs in the US over the last year have resulted in only 190,000 b/d being cash negative at a Brent price of $35/b.
The latest study contrasts with a similar report from the research group a year ago when it estimated that up to 1.5 million b/d of output -- focused in the US -- was vulnerable to being shut in at $40/b Brent.
At the time, US tight oil production was expected to start becoming cash negative a Brent oil price in the "high $30s."
"In the past year we have seen a significant lowering of production costs in the US, which has resulted in only 190,000 b/d being cash negative at a Brent price of $35," it said.
Last month, the International Energy Agency estimated that non-OPEC oil output will fall by 600,000 b/d this year, the biggest slide in almost 25 years, following gains of 1.4 million b/d in 2015 and 2.4 million b/d in 2014.
But even all of that is irrelevant if the fundamental flaw in the Saudi strategy is not addressed, a flaw we have pounded the table on for months, and one which the WSJ caught up with overnight, which reported that "Not Even a Wave of Oil Bankruptcies Will Shrink Crude Production." Here's why:
The conundrum for many investors is that a slew of bankruptcies won’t necessarily shrink the global glut of crude. Companies need cash to repay their debts, so their existing wells are unlikely to stop operating throughout the bankruptcy process. In fact, those wells will probably be sold to better-financed buyers, who can afford to keep production going or even increase it.
Meanwhile, leverage ratios will only go higher as oil prices continue sliding lower, which also means that the market's post-squeeze hangover will be quite unpleasant.
How Far Will The U.S. Go If Turkey Invades Syria?
Submitted by Tyler D.
02/17/2016 - 17:30
The Government of Turkey has now put itself in a position whereby it must act rapidly and precipitously to avoid moving to an ultimately losing strategic position in the war against Syria, which could result in being forced back to fight a full-scale civil war to prevent the break-up of the State into at least two components, one being a new Kurdish state. The Obama Administration, with less than a year to run on its term, is also throwing caution to the winds, and is empowered in this by the diversion of U.S. political attention on the November 2016 Presidential elections. President Obama hopes to move the U.S. into an irrevocable military action in Syria before the Washington political establishment can warn him off it. And he might succeed.
Devon Energy Announces Sale Of $1 Billion In Stock, Dilutes Existing Shareholders By 13%
Submitted by Tyler D.
02/17/2016 - 16:18
Devon Energy Corporation (DVN) ("Devon" or the "Company") announced today that it intends to commence a registered public offering of 55,000,000 shares of its common stock, subject to market conditions. The Company also expects to grant the underwriters an option to purchase up to 8,250,000 additional shares of stock at the underwriters’ election. Net proceeds from the offering are expected to be used for general corporate purposes, including bolstering the Company’s liquidity position, reducing indebtedness and funding the Company’s capital program.
Pimco, la gestora de fondos, dice que hay una probabilidad del 40 por ciento de que Gran Bretaña salga de la UE en el próximo referéndum, un resultado que podría tener un impacto "de larga duración" en el mercado.
Mike Amey, un gestor de cartera de Pimco, ha llegado a la conclusión de que la probabilidad de un Brexit es del 40 por ciento a la luz de los intensos desafíos a los que David Cameron se enfrenta para obtener concesiones por parte de la UE "de una forma universalmente aceptable", así como por las recientes encuestas que muestran un lto grado de incertidumbre.
If Oil Stays At $35, This Is What Energy Company Leverage Will Look Like
Submitted by Tyler D.
02/17/2016 15:40 -0500
With the market enjoying its biggest three-day short-squeeze since 2011, one can be forgiven to forget, if only briefly, that nothing has been fixed. Furthermore, if the OPEC meetings of the past two days have demonstrated anything, it is to confirm that not only is OPEC finished as a cartel, but that OPEC has no power over the marginal oil producers in Texas, aside from bankrupting them by pressuring prices lower.
Which is precisely what it will do.
And going back to the original point of how nothing has been fixed, here is a chart from DB showing what will happen to the average oil and gas company net debt/EBITDA ratio if oil rises to and remains at $35/bbl.
Why is $35 important? Becase as a recent Wood MacKenzie study found, less than 4% of the world's oil supply is actually in the red at that price. Here's Platts:
Citing up-to-date analysis of production data and cash costs from over 10,000 oil fields, Wood Mac said it believes 3.4 million b/d, or less than 4% of global oil supply, is unprofitable at oil prices below $35/b.
Even the majority of US shale and tight oil, which has been under the spotlight due to higher-than-average production costs, only becomes cash negative at Brent prices "well-below" $30/b, according to the study.
This is what is sure to make the Saudis very frustrated:
Despite widespread fears of a major supply collapse, the US' shale oil output since late 2014, sharp deflation in service sector costs and greater drilling efficiencies have seen shale oil output remain more resilient to lower prices than first thought.
Wood Mac said falling production costs in the US over the last year have resulted in only 190,000 b/d being cash negative at a Brent price of $35/b.
The latest study contrasts with a similar report from the research group a year ago when it estimated that up to 1.5 million b/d of output -- focused in the US -- was vulnerable to being shut in at $40/b Brent.
At the time, US tight oil production was expected to start becoming cash negative a Brent oil price in the "high $30s."
"In the past year we have seen a significant lowering of production costs in the US, which has resulted in only 190,000 b/d being cash negative at a Brent price of $35," it said.
Last month, the International Energy Agency estimated that non-OPEC oil output will fall by 600,000 b/d this year, the biggest slide in almost 25 years, following gains of 1.4 million b/d in 2015 and 2.4 million b/d in 2014.
But even all of that is irrelevant if the fundamental flaw in the Saudi strategy is not addressed, a flaw we have pounded the table on for months, and one which the WSJ caught up with overnight, which reported that "Not Even a Wave of Oil Bankruptcies Will Shrink Crude Production." Here's why:
The conundrum for many investors is that a slew of bankruptcies won’t necessarily shrink the global glut of crude. Companies need cash to repay their debts, so their existing wells are unlikely to stop operating throughout the bankruptcy process. In fact, those wells will probably be sold to better-financed buyers, who can afford to keep production going or even increase it.
Meanwhile, leverage ratios will only go higher as oil prices continue sliding lower, which also means that the market's post-squeeze hangover will be quite unpleasant.
How Far Will The U.S. Go If Turkey Invades Syria?
Submitted by Tyler D.
02/17/2016 - 17:30
The Government of Turkey has now put itself in a position whereby it must act rapidly and precipitously to avoid moving to an ultimately losing strategic position in the war against Syria, which could result in being forced back to fight a full-scale civil war to prevent the break-up of the State into at least two components, one being a new Kurdish state. The Obama Administration, with less than a year to run on its term, is also throwing caution to the winds, and is empowered in this by the diversion of U.S. political attention on the November 2016 Presidential elections. President Obama hopes to move the U.S. into an irrevocable military action in Syria before the Washington political establishment can warn him off it. And he might succeed.
Devon Energy Announces Sale Of $1 Billion In Stock, Dilutes Existing Shareholders By 13%
Submitted by Tyler D.
02/17/2016 - 16:18
Devon Energy Corporation (DVN) ("Devon" or the "Company") announced today that it intends to commence a registered public offering of 55,000,000 shares of its common stock, subject to market conditions. The Company also expects to grant the underwriters an option to purchase up to 8,250,000 additional shares of stock at the underwriters’ election. Net proceeds from the offering are expected to be used for general corporate purposes, including bolstering the Company’s liquidity position, reducing indebtedness and funding the Company’s capital program.
- Fenix
- Mensajes: 16334
- Registrado: Vie Abr 23, 2010 2:36 am
Re: Jueves 18/02/16 Indicadores lideres
por Fenix » Jue Feb 18, 2016 3:37 pm
15:25 Cae la cuota de mercado de los Dark Pools
Los dark pools europeos negociaron más acciones por valor el año pasado que nunca, pero su cuota de mercado descendió por primera vez, de acuerdo con un informe de Rosenblatt Securities.
Esta caída puede ser una señal de un parón en el crecimiento de la negociación opaca, limitando la cuota de mercado en las plataformas a entre el 5 y 7 por ciento, según el informe.
El cambio se produce incluso antes de que los reguladores europeos impongan restricciones a las transacciones fuera de bolsa, poniendo coto al comercio opaco en cada valor al 8 por ciento del volumen total.
Is This Why Treasury Yields Surged In The Past Three Days?
Submitted by Tyler D.
02/18/2016 14:55 -0500
Amid last Thursday's cataclysmically illiquid flash-crash like collapse in Treasury yields, speculators in extreme net short positions reached for anything to hedge their positions. Most remarkably, call-buying (i.e. betting on / hedging lower yields) relative to put-buying exploded to a record skew. It would appear that the utter panic protection positioning is being unwound in the last few days and that has dragged yields considerably higher. Today the skew is back to "normal" and Treasury yields are once again falling, unfettered by the technical flow from panicced options hedges.
Aggregate (10Y equivalents) speculative positioning in Treasury futures was already near record shorts...
And so last week's yield crash sent the Treasury skew crashing to record lows... (positioning/hedging for lower yields)
Those apparently panicced hedges have been quickly lifted as rumors, news, central banker promises, and flows have calmed the chaotic moves - dragging the skew back to "normal" and smashing yields higher...
And now that the skew has normalized, yields are falling once again as the deflationary wave pressures continue...
Nothing To Fear But Goldman Recommendations To Short Gold, As Gold Surges
Submitted by Tyler D.
02/18/2016 13:58 -0500
Three days ago, we reported that just days after Goldman's technical team told clients that Gold May Soar "Much Higher Over Time", Goldman's head of commodities released a note, titled appropriately enough "Nothing to Fear but Fear Itself", urging clients to short gold
In a section, titled "time to sell the fear barometer, Currie said the following:
"this past week fears over oil and China were augmented with fears over negative interest rates and the potential for systemic risks from banks. These fears created a surge in gold, the barometer of fear, towards $1300/toz. However, we believe that these fears ignore the facts that systemic risks from oil, China and negative rates are very unlikely.
As a result, he made the following trade recommendation:
As we maintain our view of rising US rates and hence lower gold prices with a 3-month target of $1100/toz and 12-month target of $1000/toz, we are recommending shorting gold through a GSCI-style rolling index. Ironically, gold has a negative yield and such a short would create a positive carry in a world concerned about negative interest rates that made gold rise in the first place.
As it turns out, Goldman clients had nothing to fear but yet another trade recommendation from Goldman, because while gold tumbled after Goldman's "going much higher" reco, it has proceeded to surge since Currie flip-flopped with its Monday recommendation to short gold.
Here is the result of Goldman's foray into daytrading gold - one could say Goldman has gone "full Gartman."
Which brings us to Currie's poetic conclusion:
We believe that the sharp rise in gold prices this past week was mostly due to concerns over systemic risks, particularly in the banking sector, given the sharp correlation of gold prices with bank stocks and other measures of systemic credit risks.
We wonder, then, looking at today's dramatic surge in gold back to the $1,235 level, are "systemic risk" back on the table?
Los dark pools europeos negociaron más acciones por valor el año pasado que nunca, pero su cuota de mercado descendió por primera vez, de acuerdo con un informe de Rosenblatt Securities.
Esta caída puede ser una señal de un parón en el crecimiento de la negociación opaca, limitando la cuota de mercado en las plataformas a entre el 5 y 7 por ciento, según el informe.
El cambio se produce incluso antes de que los reguladores europeos impongan restricciones a las transacciones fuera de bolsa, poniendo coto al comercio opaco en cada valor al 8 por ciento del volumen total.
Is This Why Treasury Yields Surged In The Past Three Days?
Submitted by Tyler D.
02/18/2016 14:55 -0500
Amid last Thursday's cataclysmically illiquid flash-crash like collapse in Treasury yields, speculators in extreme net short positions reached for anything to hedge their positions. Most remarkably, call-buying (i.e. betting on / hedging lower yields) relative to put-buying exploded to a record skew. It would appear that the utter panic protection positioning is being unwound in the last few days and that has dragged yields considerably higher. Today the skew is back to "normal" and Treasury yields are once again falling, unfettered by the technical flow from panicced options hedges.
Aggregate (10Y equivalents) speculative positioning in Treasury futures was already near record shorts...
And so last week's yield crash sent the Treasury skew crashing to record lows... (positioning/hedging for lower yields)
Those apparently panicced hedges have been quickly lifted as rumors, news, central banker promises, and flows have calmed the chaotic moves - dragging the skew back to "normal" and smashing yields higher...
And now that the skew has normalized, yields are falling once again as the deflationary wave pressures continue...
Nothing To Fear But Goldman Recommendations To Short Gold, As Gold Surges
Submitted by Tyler D.
02/18/2016 13:58 -0500
Three days ago, we reported that just days after Goldman's technical team told clients that Gold May Soar "Much Higher Over Time", Goldman's head of commodities released a note, titled appropriately enough "Nothing to Fear but Fear Itself", urging clients to short gold
In a section, titled "time to sell the fear barometer, Currie said the following:
"this past week fears over oil and China were augmented with fears over negative interest rates and the potential for systemic risks from banks. These fears created a surge in gold, the barometer of fear, towards $1300/toz. However, we believe that these fears ignore the facts that systemic risks from oil, China and negative rates are very unlikely.
As a result, he made the following trade recommendation:
As we maintain our view of rising US rates and hence lower gold prices with a 3-month target of $1100/toz and 12-month target of $1000/toz, we are recommending shorting gold through a GSCI-style rolling index. Ironically, gold has a negative yield and such a short would create a positive carry in a world concerned about negative interest rates that made gold rise in the first place.
As it turns out, Goldman clients had nothing to fear but yet another trade recommendation from Goldman, because while gold tumbled after Goldman's "going much higher" reco, it has proceeded to surge since Currie flip-flopped with its Monday recommendation to short gold.
Here is the result of Goldman's foray into daytrading gold - one could say Goldman has gone "full Gartman."
Which brings us to Currie's poetic conclusion:
We believe that the sharp rise in gold prices this past week was mostly due to concerns over systemic risks, particularly in the banking sector, given the sharp correlation of gold prices with bank stocks and other measures of systemic credit risks.
We wonder, then, looking at today's dramatic surge in gold back to the $1,235 level, are "systemic risk" back on the table?
- Fenix
- Mensajes: 16334
- Registrado: Vie Abr 23, 2010 2:36 am
Re: Jueves 18/02/16 Indicadores lideres
por Fenix » Jue Feb 18, 2016 3:56 pm
NIRP Won't Work - What Ray Dalio Thinks Central Banks Will Do Next
Submitted by Tyler D.
02/18/2016 13:36 -0500
Just as we first warned in September 2013, so it seems the view of "helicopter money" being imminent is now becoming more mainstream as the powers that be slowly propagandize the benefits.
If dropping interest rates to zero was Unorthodox Policy #1 and QE was Unorthodox Policy #2 then it seems very possible Helicopter Money will be Unorthodox Policy #3. Whether this new level of expansionism, with all the hopes and theoretic power it is supposed to hold, can generate growth of the red-hot rather than lukewarm kind remains to be seen.
However in so much as it could potentially raise nominal GDP, it may become an increasingly more attractive policy option around a global economy (especially DM) economy that faces many natural and structural growth concerns in the year ahead. Forcing the nominal economy to grow into the problems of the bubble era could be the most realistic policy choice over the remainder of the decade.
And today, the latest in a long line of realists has now come to the same conclusion that the only thing the central planners have left is a money-drop...
Authored by Bridgewater's Ray Dalio (via ValueWalk.com),
Monetary Policy 1 was via interest rates. Monetary Policy 2 was via quantitative easing. It will be important for policy makers and us as investors to envision what Monetary Policy 3 (MP3) will look like.
While monetary policy in the US/dollar has not fully run its course and lowering interest rates and quantitative easing can still rally markets and boost the economy a bit, the Fed’s ability to stimulate via these tools is weaker than it has ever been. The BoJ’s and ECB’s abilities are even weaker. As a result, central banks will increasingly be “pushing on a string.” Let’s take just a moment to review the mechanics of why and then go on to see what MP3 will look like.
Why “Pushing on a String?”
Lending in order to finance spending requires both investors/savers and borrowers/spenders, who have very different objectives, to each operate in both their own interests and in a symbiotic way. For example, when a debt expansion that finances spending on goods and services takes place, both a) the investors/savers increase their debt holdings because they believe that they are increasing their assets, and b) the borrowers produce those borrowings (that investors/savers call an ‘asset’) to increase their spending. When both are going on in a big way (i.e., when debts, financial assets, and spending are rising fast), we have a boom. However, because both savers and borrowers often don’t do the calculations very well to determine whether the debt created will be used to produce more than enough income to service the debts, we also have busts. So, to understand how central banks’ monetary policies work, one has to see things through the eyes of both investors/savers and borrowers/spenders.
I will look at the process from the investment side, as that is now more important because central bank policies, especially quantitative easing, have their effects more by affecting the behavior of investors/savers than by affecting the behavior of borrowers/spenders. When the central bank buys a bond, it does so from a saver/investor who takes the cash to make an alternative investment decision. What they invest/save in makes all the difference in the world. When investing/saving is in the sort of assets that finance spending, that stimulates the economy. However, when investing in that sort of asset is unattractive, which is what happens when the “risk premiums” are low and/or investors are scared, it does not. To the extent that interest rates decline, that also has a positive effect on all asset prices because all investments are exchanges of lump sum payments for a stream of future cash flows, and the interest rate (i.e., the discount rate) is the rate that is used to calculate the present value of these cash flows. All else being equal, the more interest rates are pushed down, the more asset prices will be pushed up. That is how monetary policy now works.
So, Where Do Things Now Stand?
The discount rate is just about as compressed as it can be, so the potential present value effect of lowering it is nearly at its end. That’s a big thing. In terms of the risk premiums of “risky assets,” they’re now neither especially high nor low, so there is a bit more to be squeezed out of them, more so in the US than elsewhere. Put these two pieces together and it’s clear that the future returns of assets will be low, which will be a problem given what the returns need to be to meet our future obligations. Though not pressing, that issue is something that central banks will have to deal with, which helps to inform the picture of what MP3 will probably look like—i.e., they will need more “money printing.” From the perspective of an investor, if you look at the level of the returns relative to levels of volatility, the expected reward-risk could make those who are long a lot of assets view that terrible-returning asset called cash as appealing.
To clarify, take current bond yields (less than 2%) and cash (0%) and compare that to something like a 4% expected return on equities. Because of volatility, the 4% expected annual return pick up of equities over cash, or 2% over bonds, can be lost in a day or two. (For example, stocks fell by nearly 5% in a week earlier this month.) And then there is the feedback loop where a sell-off in the stock market in turn has a negative pass-through effect on the rate of economic activity. All that makes for asymmetric risks on the downside in the US—and the pictures in other countries are even more asymmetrical on the downside, as their interest rates are even lower and their risk premiums are nearly gone.
The mechanics of how currencies, interest rates, and economies work together is also important to understand at this time as they will have a big effect. Remember that all debt is a promise to deliver a specific currency, so when the currency gets more or less valuable, it affects people’s behaviors. That is true now more than ever because those who have money are exposed to alternative currencies to keep their wealth in (or to borrow in) and because the major currency systems are all in fiat currency. So more money than ever will move from one currency to another, or from currencies to other assets (e.g. gold), based on what people are thinking about how the values of currencies will change. Also we should expect currency volatility to be greater than normal because 1) when interest rates can’t be lowered and relative interest rates can’t be changed, currency movements must be larger, and 2) when both relative interest rates and relative currency movements are locked together (e.g., in European countries and wherever there are pegged exchange rates), relative economic movements must be larger. Said differently, to avoid economic volatility, currency movements must be larger. That reality creates “currency wars,” pegged exchange rate break-ups, and increased currency risk for investors. Because currency movements benefit one country at the expense of another (e.g., they’re beggar-thy-neighbor), if the world’s largest economies all face the difficulty of pushing on a string, exchange rate shifts won’t create a needed global easing. Nobody intends these wars to happen. That’s just how the economic machine works.
For these reasons investors should expect to experience lower than normal returns with greater than normal risk.
Asset prices have fallen largely as a result of this, together with the deflationary pressures brought about by most economies being in the later stages of their long term debt cycles.
So, how might the current decline in risky assets transpire? That depends on what levels risky assets need to decline to in order to raise their risk premiums enough to cause investors who have a long bias (which most all have) to take their cash holdings (or to borrow cash) to add to those assets. With the central banks’ abilities to be effective in easing to reverse a downturn weaker than before, the past may not be a good guide because the self-reinforcing cycle of falling asset prices having negative economic effects may not be as easily reversed as in more normal times. In other words, the downside risks are greater. That doesn’t mean that a downturn is likely—it’s just that the risks are asymmetrical if one does.
Most likely, as risk premiums increase, central banks will increasingly ease via more negative interest rates and more QE, and these moves will have a beneficial effect. However, I also believe that QE will be less and less effective because there is less “gas in the tank.” To convey how much gas they have left in the tank, we created an index based on the previously described drivers. It is shown below for the US since 1920 and for Euroland and Japan since 1975. As shown, for the US it is as low as ever and approximately the same as in 1937. Because of this, we think that the 1937-38 period, though not identical, is the most analogous period to look at when thinking about interest rates, currency rates, monetary policies, and global economic activity. It, and the mechanics behind it, are worth understanding.
Ray Dalio Monetary Policy 3
The next two charts show the same measure going back to 1975 in Euroland and Japan.
Ray Dalio Monetary Policy 3
Ray Dalio: What Will Monetary Policy 3 Look Like?
While negative interest rates will make cash a bit less attractive (but not much), it won’t drive investors/savers to buy the sort of assets that will finance spending. And while QE will push asset prices somewhat higher, investors/savers will still want to save, lenders will still be cautious lenders, and cautious borrowers will remain cautious, so we will still have “pushing on a string.” As a result, Monetary Policy 3 will have to be directed at spenders more than at investors/savers. In other words, it will provide money to spenders and incentives for them to spend it. How exactly that will work has to be determined. However, we can say that the range will extend from classic fiscal/monetary policy coordination (in which debt to finance government spending will be monetized) to sending people cash directly (i.e., helicopter money), and will likely fall somewhere between these two (i.e., sending people money tied to spending incentives).
To be clear, we are not describing what will happen tomorrow or what we are recommending, and we aren’t sure about what will happen over the near term. We are just describing a) how we believe the economic machine works, b) roughly where we believe that leaves us, and c) what these circumstances will probably drive policy makers to do—most importantly that central bankers need to put their thinking caps on.
Submitted by Tyler D.
02/18/2016 13:36 -0500
Just as we first warned in September 2013, so it seems the view of "helicopter money" being imminent is now becoming more mainstream as the powers that be slowly propagandize the benefits.
If dropping interest rates to zero was Unorthodox Policy #1 and QE was Unorthodox Policy #2 then it seems very possible Helicopter Money will be Unorthodox Policy #3. Whether this new level of expansionism, with all the hopes and theoretic power it is supposed to hold, can generate growth of the red-hot rather than lukewarm kind remains to be seen.
However in so much as it could potentially raise nominal GDP, it may become an increasingly more attractive policy option around a global economy (especially DM) economy that faces many natural and structural growth concerns in the year ahead. Forcing the nominal economy to grow into the problems of the bubble era could be the most realistic policy choice over the remainder of the decade.
And today, the latest in a long line of realists has now come to the same conclusion that the only thing the central planners have left is a money-drop...
Authored by Bridgewater's Ray Dalio (via ValueWalk.com),
Monetary Policy 1 was via interest rates. Monetary Policy 2 was via quantitative easing. It will be important for policy makers and us as investors to envision what Monetary Policy 3 (MP3) will look like.
While monetary policy in the US/dollar has not fully run its course and lowering interest rates and quantitative easing can still rally markets and boost the economy a bit, the Fed’s ability to stimulate via these tools is weaker than it has ever been. The BoJ’s and ECB’s abilities are even weaker. As a result, central banks will increasingly be “pushing on a string.” Let’s take just a moment to review the mechanics of why and then go on to see what MP3 will look like.
Why “Pushing on a String?”
Lending in order to finance spending requires both investors/savers and borrowers/spenders, who have very different objectives, to each operate in both their own interests and in a symbiotic way. For example, when a debt expansion that finances spending on goods and services takes place, both a) the investors/savers increase their debt holdings because they believe that they are increasing their assets, and b) the borrowers produce those borrowings (that investors/savers call an ‘asset’) to increase their spending. When both are going on in a big way (i.e., when debts, financial assets, and spending are rising fast), we have a boom. However, because both savers and borrowers often don’t do the calculations very well to determine whether the debt created will be used to produce more than enough income to service the debts, we also have busts. So, to understand how central banks’ monetary policies work, one has to see things through the eyes of both investors/savers and borrowers/spenders.
I will look at the process from the investment side, as that is now more important because central bank policies, especially quantitative easing, have their effects more by affecting the behavior of investors/savers than by affecting the behavior of borrowers/spenders. When the central bank buys a bond, it does so from a saver/investor who takes the cash to make an alternative investment decision. What they invest/save in makes all the difference in the world. When investing/saving is in the sort of assets that finance spending, that stimulates the economy. However, when investing in that sort of asset is unattractive, which is what happens when the “risk premiums” are low and/or investors are scared, it does not. To the extent that interest rates decline, that also has a positive effect on all asset prices because all investments are exchanges of lump sum payments for a stream of future cash flows, and the interest rate (i.e., the discount rate) is the rate that is used to calculate the present value of these cash flows. All else being equal, the more interest rates are pushed down, the more asset prices will be pushed up. That is how monetary policy now works.
So, Where Do Things Now Stand?
The discount rate is just about as compressed as it can be, so the potential present value effect of lowering it is nearly at its end. That’s a big thing. In terms of the risk premiums of “risky assets,” they’re now neither especially high nor low, so there is a bit more to be squeezed out of them, more so in the US than elsewhere. Put these two pieces together and it’s clear that the future returns of assets will be low, which will be a problem given what the returns need to be to meet our future obligations. Though not pressing, that issue is something that central banks will have to deal with, which helps to inform the picture of what MP3 will probably look like—i.e., they will need more “money printing.” From the perspective of an investor, if you look at the level of the returns relative to levels of volatility, the expected reward-risk could make those who are long a lot of assets view that terrible-returning asset called cash as appealing.
To clarify, take current bond yields (less than 2%) and cash (0%) and compare that to something like a 4% expected return on equities. Because of volatility, the 4% expected annual return pick up of equities over cash, or 2% over bonds, can be lost in a day or two. (For example, stocks fell by nearly 5% in a week earlier this month.) And then there is the feedback loop where a sell-off in the stock market in turn has a negative pass-through effect on the rate of economic activity. All that makes for asymmetric risks on the downside in the US—and the pictures in other countries are even more asymmetrical on the downside, as their interest rates are even lower and their risk premiums are nearly gone.
The mechanics of how currencies, interest rates, and economies work together is also important to understand at this time as they will have a big effect. Remember that all debt is a promise to deliver a specific currency, so when the currency gets more or less valuable, it affects people’s behaviors. That is true now more than ever because those who have money are exposed to alternative currencies to keep their wealth in (or to borrow in) and because the major currency systems are all in fiat currency. So more money than ever will move from one currency to another, or from currencies to other assets (e.g. gold), based on what people are thinking about how the values of currencies will change. Also we should expect currency volatility to be greater than normal because 1) when interest rates can’t be lowered and relative interest rates can’t be changed, currency movements must be larger, and 2) when both relative interest rates and relative currency movements are locked together (e.g., in European countries and wherever there are pegged exchange rates), relative economic movements must be larger. Said differently, to avoid economic volatility, currency movements must be larger. That reality creates “currency wars,” pegged exchange rate break-ups, and increased currency risk for investors. Because currency movements benefit one country at the expense of another (e.g., they’re beggar-thy-neighbor), if the world’s largest economies all face the difficulty of pushing on a string, exchange rate shifts won’t create a needed global easing. Nobody intends these wars to happen. That’s just how the economic machine works.
For these reasons investors should expect to experience lower than normal returns with greater than normal risk.
Asset prices have fallen largely as a result of this, together with the deflationary pressures brought about by most economies being in the later stages of their long term debt cycles.
So, how might the current decline in risky assets transpire? That depends on what levels risky assets need to decline to in order to raise their risk premiums enough to cause investors who have a long bias (which most all have) to take their cash holdings (or to borrow cash) to add to those assets. With the central banks’ abilities to be effective in easing to reverse a downturn weaker than before, the past may not be a good guide because the self-reinforcing cycle of falling asset prices having negative economic effects may not be as easily reversed as in more normal times. In other words, the downside risks are greater. That doesn’t mean that a downturn is likely—it’s just that the risks are asymmetrical if one does.
Most likely, as risk premiums increase, central banks will increasingly ease via more negative interest rates and more QE, and these moves will have a beneficial effect. However, I also believe that QE will be less and less effective because there is less “gas in the tank.” To convey how much gas they have left in the tank, we created an index based on the previously described drivers. It is shown below for the US since 1920 and for Euroland and Japan since 1975. As shown, for the US it is as low as ever and approximately the same as in 1937. Because of this, we think that the 1937-38 period, though not identical, is the most analogous period to look at when thinking about interest rates, currency rates, monetary policies, and global economic activity. It, and the mechanics behind it, are worth understanding.
Ray Dalio Monetary Policy 3
The next two charts show the same measure going back to 1975 in Euroland and Japan.
Ray Dalio Monetary Policy 3
Ray Dalio: What Will Monetary Policy 3 Look Like?
While negative interest rates will make cash a bit less attractive (but not much), it won’t drive investors/savers to buy the sort of assets that will finance spending. And while QE will push asset prices somewhat higher, investors/savers will still want to save, lenders will still be cautious lenders, and cautious borrowers will remain cautious, so we will still have “pushing on a string.” As a result, Monetary Policy 3 will have to be directed at spenders more than at investors/savers. In other words, it will provide money to spenders and incentives for them to spend it. How exactly that will work has to be determined. However, we can say that the range will extend from classic fiscal/monetary policy coordination (in which debt to finance government spending will be monetized) to sending people cash directly (i.e., helicopter money), and will likely fall somewhere between these two (i.e., sending people money tied to spending incentives).
To be clear, we are not describing what will happen tomorrow or what we are recommending, and we aren’t sure about what will happen over the near term. We are just describing a) how we believe the economic machine works, b) roughly where we believe that leaves us, and c) what these circumstances will probably drive policy makers to do—most importantly that central bankers need to put their thinking caps on.
- Fenix
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Re: Jueves 18/02/16 Indicadores lideres
por Fenix » Jue Feb 18, 2016 4:03 pm
NIRP Won't Work - What Ray Dalio Thinks Central Banks Will Do Next
Submitted by Tyler D.
02/18/2016 13:36 -0500
Just as we first warned in September 2013, so it seems the view of "helicopter money" being imminent is now becoming more mainstream as the powers that be slowly propagandize the benefits.
If dropping interest rates to zero was Unorthodox Policy #1 and QE was Unorthodox Policy #2 then it seems very possible Helicopter Money will be Unorthodox Policy #3. Whether this new level of expansionism, with all the hopes and theoretic power it is supposed to hold, can generate growth of the red-hot rather than lukewarm kind remains to be seen.
However in so much as it could potentially raise nominal GDP, it may become an increasingly more attractive policy option around a global economy (especially DM) economy that faces many natural and structural growth concerns in the year ahead. Forcing the nominal economy to grow into the problems of the bubble era could be the most realistic policy choice over the remainder of the decade.
And today, the latest in a long line of realists has now come to the same conclusion that the only thing the central planners have left is a money-drop...
Authored by Bridgewater's Ray Dalio (via ValueWalk.com),
Monetary Policy 1 was via interest rates. Monetary Policy 2 was via quantitative easing. It will be important for policy makers and us as investors to envision what Monetary Policy 3 (MP3) will look like.
While monetary policy in the US/dollar has not fully run its course and lowering interest rates and quantitative easing can still rally markets and boost the economy a bit, the Fed’s ability to stimulate via these tools is weaker than it has ever been. The BoJ’s and ECB’s abilities are even weaker. As a result, central banks will increasingly be “pushing on a string.” Let’s take just a moment to review the mechanics of why and then go on to see what MP3 will look like.
Why “Pushing on a String?”
Lending in order to finance spending requires both investors/savers and borrowers/spenders, who have very different objectives, to each operate in both their own interests and in a symbiotic way. For example, when a debt expansion that finances spending on goods and services takes place, both a) the investors/savers increase their debt holdings because they believe that they are increasing their assets, and b) the borrowers produce those borrowings (that investors/savers call an ‘asset’) to increase their spending. When both are going on in a big way (i.e., when debts, financial assets, and spending are rising fast), we have a boom. However, because both savers and borrowers often don’t do the calculations very well to determine whether the debt created will be used to produce more than enough income to service the debts, we also have busts. So, to understand how central banks’ monetary policies work, one has to see things through the eyes of both investors/savers and borrowers/spenders.
I will look at the process from the investment side, as that is now more important because central bank policies, especially quantitative easing, have their effects more by affecting the behavior of investors/savers than by affecting the behavior of borrowers/spenders. When the central bank buys a bond, it does so from a saver/investor who takes the cash to make an alternative investment decision. What they invest/save in makes all the difference in the world. When investing/saving is in the sort of assets that finance spending, that stimulates the economy. However, when investing in that sort of asset is unattractive, which is what happens when the “risk premiums” are low and/or investors are scared, it does not. To the extent that interest rates decline, that also has a positive effect on all asset prices because all investments are exchanges of lump sum payments for a stream of future cash flows, and the interest rate (i.e., the discount rate) is the rate that is used to calculate the present value of these cash flows. All else being equal, the more interest rates are pushed down, the more asset prices will be pushed up. That is how monetary policy now works.
So, Where Do Things Now Stand?
The discount rate is just about as compressed as it can be, so the potential present value effect of lowering it is nearly at its end. That’s a big thing. In terms of the risk premiums of “risky assets,” they’re now neither especially high nor low, so there is a bit more to be squeezed out of them, more so in the US than elsewhere. Put these two pieces together and it’s clear that the future returns of assets will be low, which will be a problem given what the returns need to be to meet our future obligations. Though not pressing, that issue is something that central banks will have to deal with, which helps to inform the picture of what MP3 will probably look like—i.e., they will need more “money printing.” From the perspective of an investor, if you look at the level of the returns relative to levels of volatility, the expected reward-risk could make those who are long a lot of assets view that terrible-returning asset called cash as appealing.
To clarify, take current bond yields (less than 2%) and cash (0%) and compare that to something like a 4% expected return on equities. Because of volatility, the 4% expected annual return pick up of equities over cash, or 2% over bonds, can be lost in a day or two. (For example, stocks fell by nearly 5% in a week earlier this month.) And then there is the feedback loop where a sell-off in the stock market in turn has a negative pass-through effect on the rate of economic activity. All that makes for asymmetric risks on the downside in the US—and the pictures in other countries are even more asymmetrical on the downside, as their interest rates are even lower and their risk premiums are nearly gone.
The mechanics of how currencies, interest rates, and economies work together is also important to understand at this time as they will have a big effect. Remember that all debt is a promise to deliver a specific currency, so when the currency gets more or less valuable, it affects people’s behaviors. That is true now more than ever because those who have money are exposed to alternative currencies to keep their wealth in (or to borrow in) and because the major currency systems are all in fiat currency. So more money than ever will move from one currency to another, or from currencies to other assets (e.g. gold), based on what people are thinking about how the values of currencies will change. Also we should expect currency volatility to be greater than normal because 1) when interest rates can’t be lowered and relative interest rates can’t be changed, currency movements must be larger, and 2) when both relative interest rates and relative currency movements are locked together (e.g., in European countries and wherever there are pegged exchange rates), relative economic movements must be larger. Said differently, to avoid economic volatility, currency movements must be larger. That reality creates “currency wars,” pegged exchange rate break-ups, and increased currency risk for investors. Because currency movements benefit one country at the expense of another (e.g., they’re beggar-thy-neighbor), if the world’s largest economies all face the difficulty of pushing on a string, exchange rate shifts won’t create a needed global easing. Nobody intends these wars to happen. That’s just how the economic machine works.
For these reasons investors should expect to experience lower than normal returns with greater than normal risk.
Asset prices have fallen largely as a result of this, together with the deflationary pressures brought about by most economies being in the later stages of their long term debt cycles.
So, how might the current decline in risky assets transpire? That depends on what levels risky assets need to decline to in order to raise their risk premiums enough to cause investors who have a long bias (which most all have) to take their cash holdings (or to borrow cash) to add to those assets. With the central banks’ abilities to be effective in easing to reverse a downturn weaker than before, the past may not be a good guide because the self-reinforcing cycle of falling asset prices having negative economic effects may not be as easily reversed as in more normal times. In other words, the downside risks are greater. That doesn’t mean that a downturn is likely—it’s just that the risks are asymmetrical if one does.
Most likely, as risk premiums increase, central banks will increasingly ease via more negative interest rates and more QE, and these moves will have a beneficial effect. However, I also believe that QE will be less and less effective because there is less “gas in the tank.” To convey how much gas they have left in the tank, we created an index based on the previously described drivers. It is shown below for the US since 1920 and for Euroland and Japan since 1975. As shown, for the US it is as low as ever and approximately the same as in 1937. Because of this, we think that the 1937-38 period, though not identical, is the most analogous period to look at when thinking about interest rates, currency rates, monetary policies, and global economic activity. It, and the mechanics behind it, are worth understanding.
Ray Dalio Monetary Policy 3
The next two charts show the same measure going back to 1975 in Euroland and Japan.
Ray Dalio Monetary Policy 3
Ray Dalio: What Will Monetary Policy 3 Look Like?
While negative interest rates will make cash a bit less attractive (but not much), it won’t drive investors/savers to buy the sort of assets that will finance spending. And while QE will push asset prices somewhat higher, investors/savers will still want to save, lenders will still be cautious lenders, and cautious borrowers will remain cautious, so we will still have “pushing on a string.” As a result, Monetary Policy 3 will have to be directed at spenders more than at investors/savers. In other words, it will provide money to spenders and incentives for them to spend it. How exactly that will work has to be determined. However, we can say that the range will extend from classic fiscal/monetary policy coordination (in which debt to finance government spending will be monetized) to sending people cash directly (i.e., helicopter money), and will likely fall somewhere between these two (i.e., sending people money tied to spending incentives).
To be clear, we are not describing what will happen tomorrow or what we are recommending, and we aren’t sure about what will happen over the near term. We are just describing a) how we believe the economic machine works, b) roughly where we believe that leaves us, and c) what these circumstances will probably drive policy makers to do—most importantly that central bankers need to put their thinking caps on.
Submitted by Tyler D.
02/18/2016 13:36 -0500
Just as we first warned in September 2013, so it seems the view of "helicopter money" being imminent is now becoming more mainstream as the powers that be slowly propagandize the benefits.
If dropping interest rates to zero was Unorthodox Policy #1 and QE was Unorthodox Policy #2 then it seems very possible Helicopter Money will be Unorthodox Policy #3. Whether this new level of expansionism, with all the hopes and theoretic power it is supposed to hold, can generate growth of the red-hot rather than lukewarm kind remains to be seen.
However in so much as it could potentially raise nominal GDP, it may become an increasingly more attractive policy option around a global economy (especially DM) economy that faces many natural and structural growth concerns in the year ahead. Forcing the nominal economy to grow into the problems of the bubble era could be the most realistic policy choice over the remainder of the decade.
And today, the latest in a long line of realists has now come to the same conclusion that the only thing the central planners have left is a money-drop...
Authored by Bridgewater's Ray Dalio (via ValueWalk.com),
Monetary Policy 1 was via interest rates. Monetary Policy 2 was via quantitative easing. It will be important for policy makers and us as investors to envision what Monetary Policy 3 (MP3) will look like.
While monetary policy in the US/dollar has not fully run its course and lowering interest rates and quantitative easing can still rally markets and boost the economy a bit, the Fed’s ability to stimulate via these tools is weaker than it has ever been. The BoJ’s and ECB’s abilities are even weaker. As a result, central banks will increasingly be “pushing on a string.” Let’s take just a moment to review the mechanics of why and then go on to see what MP3 will look like.
Why “Pushing on a String?”
Lending in order to finance spending requires both investors/savers and borrowers/spenders, who have very different objectives, to each operate in both their own interests and in a symbiotic way. For example, when a debt expansion that finances spending on goods and services takes place, both a) the investors/savers increase their debt holdings because they believe that they are increasing their assets, and b) the borrowers produce those borrowings (that investors/savers call an ‘asset’) to increase their spending. When both are going on in a big way (i.e., when debts, financial assets, and spending are rising fast), we have a boom. However, because both savers and borrowers often don’t do the calculations very well to determine whether the debt created will be used to produce more than enough income to service the debts, we also have busts. So, to understand how central banks’ monetary policies work, one has to see things through the eyes of both investors/savers and borrowers/spenders.
I will look at the process from the investment side, as that is now more important because central bank policies, especially quantitative easing, have their effects more by affecting the behavior of investors/savers than by affecting the behavior of borrowers/spenders. When the central bank buys a bond, it does so from a saver/investor who takes the cash to make an alternative investment decision. What they invest/save in makes all the difference in the world. When investing/saving is in the sort of assets that finance spending, that stimulates the economy. However, when investing in that sort of asset is unattractive, which is what happens when the “risk premiums” are low and/or investors are scared, it does not. To the extent that interest rates decline, that also has a positive effect on all asset prices because all investments are exchanges of lump sum payments for a stream of future cash flows, and the interest rate (i.e., the discount rate) is the rate that is used to calculate the present value of these cash flows. All else being equal, the more interest rates are pushed down, the more asset prices will be pushed up. That is how monetary policy now works.
So, Where Do Things Now Stand?
The discount rate is just about as compressed as it can be, so the potential present value effect of lowering it is nearly at its end. That’s a big thing. In terms of the risk premiums of “risky assets,” they’re now neither especially high nor low, so there is a bit more to be squeezed out of them, more so in the US than elsewhere. Put these two pieces together and it’s clear that the future returns of assets will be low, which will be a problem given what the returns need to be to meet our future obligations. Though not pressing, that issue is something that central banks will have to deal with, which helps to inform the picture of what MP3 will probably look like—i.e., they will need more “money printing.” From the perspective of an investor, if you look at the level of the returns relative to levels of volatility, the expected reward-risk could make those who are long a lot of assets view that terrible-returning asset called cash as appealing.
To clarify, take current bond yields (less than 2%) and cash (0%) and compare that to something like a 4% expected return on equities. Because of volatility, the 4% expected annual return pick up of equities over cash, or 2% over bonds, can be lost in a day or two. (For example, stocks fell by nearly 5% in a week earlier this month.) And then there is the feedback loop where a sell-off in the stock market in turn has a negative pass-through effect on the rate of economic activity. All that makes for asymmetric risks on the downside in the US—and the pictures in other countries are even more asymmetrical on the downside, as their interest rates are even lower and their risk premiums are nearly gone.
The mechanics of how currencies, interest rates, and economies work together is also important to understand at this time as they will have a big effect. Remember that all debt is a promise to deliver a specific currency, so when the currency gets more or less valuable, it affects people’s behaviors. That is true now more than ever because those who have money are exposed to alternative currencies to keep their wealth in (or to borrow in) and because the major currency systems are all in fiat currency. So more money than ever will move from one currency to another, or from currencies to other assets (e.g. gold), based on what people are thinking about how the values of currencies will change. Also we should expect currency volatility to be greater than normal because 1) when interest rates can’t be lowered and relative interest rates can’t be changed, currency movements must be larger, and 2) when both relative interest rates and relative currency movements are locked together (e.g., in European countries and wherever there are pegged exchange rates), relative economic movements must be larger. Said differently, to avoid economic volatility, currency movements must be larger. That reality creates “currency wars,” pegged exchange rate break-ups, and increased currency risk for investors. Because currency movements benefit one country at the expense of another (e.g., they’re beggar-thy-neighbor), if the world’s largest economies all face the difficulty of pushing on a string, exchange rate shifts won’t create a needed global easing. Nobody intends these wars to happen. That’s just how the economic machine works.
For these reasons investors should expect to experience lower than normal returns with greater than normal risk.
Asset prices have fallen largely as a result of this, together with the deflationary pressures brought about by most economies being in the later stages of their long term debt cycles.
So, how might the current decline in risky assets transpire? That depends on what levels risky assets need to decline to in order to raise their risk premiums enough to cause investors who have a long bias (which most all have) to take their cash holdings (or to borrow cash) to add to those assets. With the central banks’ abilities to be effective in easing to reverse a downturn weaker than before, the past may not be a good guide because the self-reinforcing cycle of falling asset prices having negative economic effects may not be as easily reversed as in more normal times. In other words, the downside risks are greater. That doesn’t mean that a downturn is likely—it’s just that the risks are asymmetrical if one does.
Most likely, as risk premiums increase, central banks will increasingly ease via more negative interest rates and more QE, and these moves will have a beneficial effect. However, I also believe that QE will be less and less effective because there is less “gas in the tank.” To convey how much gas they have left in the tank, we created an index based on the previously described drivers. It is shown below for the US since 1920 and for Euroland and Japan since 1975. As shown, for the US it is as low as ever and approximately the same as in 1937. Because of this, we think that the 1937-38 period, though not identical, is the most analogous period to look at when thinking about interest rates, currency rates, monetary policies, and global economic activity. It, and the mechanics behind it, are worth understanding.
Ray Dalio Monetary Policy 3
The next two charts show the same measure going back to 1975 in Euroland and Japan.
Ray Dalio Monetary Policy 3
Ray Dalio: What Will Monetary Policy 3 Look Like?
While negative interest rates will make cash a bit less attractive (but not much), it won’t drive investors/savers to buy the sort of assets that will finance spending. And while QE will push asset prices somewhat higher, investors/savers will still want to save, lenders will still be cautious lenders, and cautious borrowers will remain cautious, so we will still have “pushing on a string.” As a result, Monetary Policy 3 will have to be directed at spenders more than at investors/savers. In other words, it will provide money to spenders and incentives for them to spend it. How exactly that will work has to be determined. However, we can say that the range will extend from classic fiscal/monetary policy coordination (in which debt to finance government spending will be monetized) to sending people cash directly (i.e., helicopter money), and will likely fall somewhere between these two (i.e., sending people money tied to spending incentives).
To be clear, we are not describing what will happen tomorrow or what we are recommending, and we aren’t sure about what will happen over the near term. We are just describing a) how we believe the economic machine works, b) roughly where we believe that leaves us, and c) what these circumstances will probably drive policy makers to do—most importantly that central bankers need to put their thinking caps on.
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Re: Jueves 18/02/16 Indicadores lideres
por admin » Jue Feb 18, 2016 4:27 pm
16413.43 -40.40 -0.25%
Nasdaq 4487.54 -46.53 -1.03%
S&P 500 1917.83 -8.99 -0.47%
Russell 2000 1004.71 -6.43 -0.64%
Global Dow 2161.66 2.91 0.13%
Japan: Nikkei 225 16196.80 360.44 2.28%
Stoxx Europe 600 328.91
Nasdaq 4487.54 -46.53 -1.03%
S&P 500 1917.83 -8.99 -0.47%
Russell 2000 1004.71 -6.43 -0.64%
Global Dow 2161.66 2.91 0.13%
Japan: Nikkei 225 16196.80 360.44 2.28%
Stoxx Europe 600 328.91
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Re: Jueves 18/02/16 Indicadores lideres
por admin » Jue Feb 18, 2016 4:30 pm
Citigroup planea abandonar operaciones de banca minorista en Argentina y Brasil: Bloomberg
jueves 18 de febrero de 2016 13:49 GYT
Imprimir
[-] Texto [+]
(Reuters) - Citigroup planea abandonar sus operaciones de banca minorista en Argentina y Brasil, reportó el jueves la agencia Bloomberg citando a una fuente no identificada familiarizada con el tema.
Según el reporte, Citigroup anunciaría la decisión en las próximas semanas.
(Editado en español por Javier Leira)
jueves 18 de febrero de 2016 13:49 GYT
Imprimir
[-] Texto [+]
(Reuters) - Citigroup planea abandonar sus operaciones de banca minorista en Argentina y Brasil, reportó el jueves la agencia Bloomberg citando a una fuente no identificada familiarizada con el tema.
Según el reporte, Citigroup anunciaría la decisión en las próximas semanas.
(Editado en español por Javier Leira)
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Re: Jueves 18/02/16 Indicadores lideres
por admin » Jue Feb 18, 2016 6:06 pm
La recesión empeorasen Brasil.
El capital continúa saliendo de lis países emergentes.
El capital continúa saliendo de lis países emergentes.
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Re: Jueves 18/02/16 Indicadores lideres
por Fenix » Jue Feb 18, 2016 6:37 pm
P2P Site That Financed San Bernardino Massacre Hikes Rates Citing "Turbulent Markets"
Submitted by Tyler D.
02/18/2016 - 15:26
Prosper Marketplace is raising the cost of loans in the face of a chaotic start to 2016. This is just the latest sign that the P2P model is starting to crack and that means the nascent ABS market for person-to-person loans may collapse in relatively short order.
2016 Is Off To A 'Good' Start
Submitted by Tyler D.
02/18/2016 15:40 -0500
If bad news is good news again (which judging by Bullard's bullshit overnight it is), then 2016 is off to a 'great' start...
Gold Glows, Bonds Bid, Crude Crumbles, FANGs Fizzle
Submitted by Tyler D.
02/18/2016 16:42 -0500
It was all too easy there eh? Never. Gets. Old...
The US Open and NYMEX Close were the triggers today...
Stocks did not go higher today confounding business TV anchors worldwide...
But off last Thursday's lows, it is still impressive...
The "short squeeze" ended today...
FANGs dropped 1.4% on the day - the biggest drop in 8 days (after 5 straight up days)...
Ugly afternoon for the FANGs...
Credit wasn't buying it again...
Treasury yields declined for the first time in 4 days, led by a 6bps plunge in 30Y (3.5bps 2Y)...
As extreme options skews unwind...
The USD gained modestly again today, led by EUR weakness but we note JPY was bid (following overnight comments from Kuroda)...
USDJPY plunged into the close of NY trading...
Extending The BoJ's utter fail even more... NKY back below 16000
Crude tumbled back to earth a little but gold (and silver) were the best performers today with a ramp starting as US opened and accelerating after EU closed...
Gold's 2nd best day in 13 months...
Crude roundtripped its gains from API 'draw' overnight...
Submitted by Tyler D.
02/18/2016 - 15:26
Prosper Marketplace is raising the cost of loans in the face of a chaotic start to 2016. This is just the latest sign that the P2P model is starting to crack and that means the nascent ABS market for person-to-person loans may collapse in relatively short order.
2016 Is Off To A 'Good' Start
Submitted by Tyler D.
02/18/2016 15:40 -0500
If bad news is good news again (which judging by Bullard's bullshit overnight it is), then 2016 is off to a 'great' start...
Gold Glows, Bonds Bid, Crude Crumbles, FANGs Fizzle
Submitted by Tyler D.
02/18/2016 16:42 -0500
It was all too easy there eh? Never. Gets. Old...
The US Open and NYMEX Close were the triggers today...
Stocks did not go higher today confounding business TV anchors worldwide...
But off last Thursday's lows, it is still impressive...
The "short squeeze" ended today...
FANGs dropped 1.4% on the day - the biggest drop in 8 days (after 5 straight up days)...
Ugly afternoon for the FANGs...
Credit wasn't buying it again...
Treasury yields declined for the first time in 4 days, led by a 6bps plunge in 30Y (3.5bps 2Y)...
As extreme options skews unwind...
The USD gained modestly again today, led by EUR weakness but we note JPY was bid (following overnight comments from Kuroda)...
USDJPY plunged into the close of NY trading...
Extending The BoJ's utter fail even more... NKY back below 16000
Crude tumbled back to earth a little but gold (and silver) were the best performers today with a ramp starting as US opened and accelerating after EU closed...
Gold's 2nd best day in 13 months...
Crude roundtripped its gains from API 'draw' overnight...
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