Miercoles 27/07/16 La decision del Fed

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5 Things to Watch at the Fed Meeting

Federal Reserve officials are virtually certain to leave short-term interest rates unchanged at their meeting this week, following the U.K.’s decision in June to quit the European Union and mixed messages from the U.S. labor market. With no press conference scheduled after the meeting and no new economic forecasts to be released, the Fed’s policy statement will be scrutinized for any clues to whether a September rate increase is in play. Here are five things to watch in the statement, which is scheduled for release at 2 p.m. EDT Wednesday.

1. How Do They Describe the Labor Market?

Recent news about U.S. job creation has been positive, but signals have been mixed over the past few months. Hiring has decelerated this year, to an average of 147,000 jobs gained a month in the second quarter compared with 196,000 in the first three months of the year. The Fed’s June statement noted that “the pace of improvement in the labor market has slowed,” reflecting the dismal gain of 11,000 jobs in May. However payroll growth bounced back in June, with employers adding 287,000 jobs, the strongest growth in eight months. Watch how Fed officials characterize the employment picture for signs of whether they have gained confidence it will continue to improve.

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2. How Are They Monitoring Global Developments?

The interest-rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee said in June it “continues to closely monitor inflation indicators and global economic and financial developments.” Fed officials have made no secret that concerns about global market volatility, such as that which followed the U.K. Brexit vote, have weighed on their minds. Fed officials generally agreed at their June 14-15 meeting that it was “prudent to wait” for additional data before considering another rate rise to see if the economy would keep improving and that new threats wouldn’t emerge after the Brexit referendum, according to minutes of the session. But remarks from Fed officials since the referendum indicate they see the Brexit fallout as contained. Atlanta Fed President Dennis Lockhart said in mid-July that markets have been “quite orderly” and “the financial market turbulence we’ve seen does not seem to have caused direct harm to the country’s economy.” If officials adjust the “closely monitoring” language to suggest less concern, that could signal they might be more open to a rate increase in September.

3. How Good Is Growth?

The Fed’s June statement said growth in economic activity appeared to have “picked up” since April, although policy makers lowered their forecasts for this year and next. Watch the wording of the July statement to see whether they believe growth has bounced back to the “moderate” pace they saw in March. Federal Reserve Chairwoman Janet Yellen said in June testimony to Congress that she expects the economy will continue to grow, although she cautioned that “considerable uncertainty about the economic outlook remains.” Officials could judge that stronger consumer spending bodes well for the broader U.S. economy following the Commerce Department’s robust reading on June retail sales.

4. How Do They Characterize Inflation?

Fed officials are likely to debate in their meeting where inflation is headed. Fed governor Daniel Tarullo said earlier this month that he wants to be “more convinced” underlying inflation is near the Fed’s 2% target, and that a recent uptick in inflation appears to be due to the waning effects of low energy prices. While core prices, which exclude the volatile categories of food and energy, increased 1.6% in May from a year earlier, overall measures of inflation remain weak. The personal-consumption expenditures price index, the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation measure, rose 0.2% in May from the prior month, and 0.9% from a year earlier. According to the minutes from the June FOMC meeting, some participants said then that “persistent disinflationary pressures from very low inflation and weak economic growth abroad” hurt their confidence that inflation would hit the Fed’s target in the medium term. Watch the statement’s language on inflation for signs of whether the committee has gained any confidence.

5. Will There Be Any Dissent?

Kansas City Fed President Esther George dissented in March and April when the Fed left interest rates unchanged, preferring to raise them. But in June, she voted with the rest of the FOMC to hold borrowing costs steady. However, Ms. George said in a July 14 speech in Oklahoma City that improvements in the U.S. economy should prompt the Fed to continue raising interest rates gradually. That could be a sign she might dissent again at this meeting if the rest of the FOMC opts to hold rates steady.

Write to Harriet Torry at harriet.torry@wsj.com

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http://elcomercio.pe/movil/economia/mer ... ia-1919848

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El Fed mantiene intereses

Fed Keeps Rates Unchanged, Says Near-Term Risks Have Diminished

WASHINGTON—The Federal Reserve upgraded its assessment of the economy’s recent performance and said near-term risks to the outlook have diminished, effectively leaving the door open to raise rates later this year, possibly as early as September.

Nine of 10 members of the Fed’s policy-making committee voted to leave the benchmark federal-funds rate unchanged at between 0.25% and 0.5%, but they offered a more upbeat description of the labor market and other sectors of the economy.

The labor market has “strengthened,” the Federal Open Market Committee said after its two-day meeting. That was brighter than the FOMC’s assessment six weeks ago, when the central bank said the pace of improvement in jobs growth had “slowed.” The pace of hiring bounced back in June to a gain of 287,000 jobs, from just 11,000 in May. Moreover, officials described household spending as having been “growing strongly,” and economic activity as expanding at “a moderate rate.” That marked a mild upgrade from June, when the Fed said household spending had strengthened and economic activity appeared to have picked up.

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“Near-term risks to the economic outlook have diminished,” Fed officials said, another hint that they are leaning toward raising short-term rates in the months ahead. The Fed’s assessment of risks is a potential indicator of where it is leaning on policy. When it sees risks tilted to the downside, it keeps rates on hold or lowers them. The Fed was silent on risks at the last two meetings. By saying risks have diminished, it appeared to be indicating a rate increase is possible, though not certain, in the months ahead.

The statement suggested officials have become less concerned about the economic outlook than they were in June, when the weak May jobs report, slow first-quarter growth and a looming vote by the U.K. on whether to stay in the European Union gave them trepidation about the outlook and whether to raise short-term rates.

The Fed’s decision on whether and when to raise short-term interest rates will depend on the flow of economic data in the weeks ahead. The statement Wednesday effectively left the Fed’s options open for its Sept. 20-21 gathering.

Before the Fed released its statement, traders in futures markets put a nearly 21% probability on a rate increase at the Fed’s September meeting and a nearly 50% probability of at least one move by the time of its December gathering.

Officials are still watching developments abroad for new threats to the outlook. As in June, the Fed said the central bank would “closely monitor inflation indicators and global economic and financial developments,” a sign that officials aren’t sure threats to U.S. growth have dissipated.

Since Fed officials last met, the U.K. unexpectedly voted to leave the EU, an event that Fed Chairwoman Janet Yellen warned ahead of time “could have significant economic repercussions.”

Spillovers to the U.S. have been limited so far. Financial markets largely shrugged off the immediate reaction to Brexit, with U.S. indexes hitting highs in recent weeks. The Fed’s assessment of global risks on Wednesday indicated officials’ concerns about Brexit-related financial strains had diminished in the short term; however, they still see lingering threats from Europe in the medium to longer run. China’s economic slowdown has been another source of angst inside the central bank.

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DJIA 18503.78 30.03 0.16%
Nasdaq 5136.68 26.63 0.52%
S&P 500 2168.15 -1.03 -0.05%
Russell 2000 1213.83 -3.03 -0.25%
Global Dow 2398.27 3.94 0.16%
Japan: Nikkei 225

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El Fed deja la puerta abierta para una posible la en Setiembre.
Fed Keeps Rates Unchanged, Says Near-Term Risks Have Diminished

WASHINGTON—The Federal Reserve upgraded its assessment of the economy’s recent performance and said near-term risks to the outlook have diminished, effectively leaving the door open to raise rates later this year, possibly as early as September.

Nine of 10 members of the Fed’s policy-making committee voted to leave the benchmark federal-funds rate unchanged at between 0.25% and 0.5%, but they offered a more upbeat description of the labor market and other sectors of the economy.

The labor market has “strengthened,” the Federal Open Market Committee said after its two-day meeting. That was brighter than the FOMC’s assessment six weeks ago, when the central bank said the pace of improvement in jobs growth had “slowed.” The pace of hiring bounced back in June to a gain of 287,000 jobs, from just 11,000 in May. Moreover, officials described household spending as having been “growing strongly,” and economic activity as expanding at “a moderate rate.” That marked a mild upgrade from June, when the Fed said household spending had strengthened and economic activity appeared to have picked up.

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“Near-term risks to the economic outlook have diminished,” Fed officials said, another hint that they are leaning toward raising short-term rates in the months ahead. The Fed’s assessment of risks is a potential indicator of where it is leaning on policy. When it sees risks tilted to the downside, it keeps rates on hold or lowers them. The Fed was silent on risks at the last two meetings. By saying risks have diminished, it appeared to be indicating a rate increase is possible, though not certain, in the months ahead.

The statement suggested officials have become less concerned about the economic outlook than they were in June, when the weak May jobs report, slow first-quarter growth and a looming vote by the U.K. on whether to stay in the European Union gave them trepidation about the outlook and whether to raise short-term rates.

The Fed’s decision on whether and when to raise short-term interest rates will depend on the flow of economic data in the weeks ahead. The statement Wednesday effectively left the Fed’s options open for its Sept. 20-21 gathering.

Before the Fed released its statement, traders in futures markets put a nearly 21% probability on a rate increase at the Fed’s September meeting and a nearly 50% probability of at least one move by the time of its December gathering.

Officials are still watching developments abroad for new threats to the outlook. As in June, the Fed said the central bank would “closely monitor inflation indicators and global economic and financial developments,” a sign that officials aren’t sure threats to U.S. growth have dissipated.

Since Fed officials last met, the U.K. unexpectedly voted to leave the EU, an event that Fed Chairwoman Janet Yellen warned ahead of time “could have significant economic repercussions.”

Spillovers to the U.S. have been limited so far. Financial markets largely shrugged off the immediate reaction to Brexit, with U.S. indexes hitting highs in recent weeks. The Fed’s assessment of global risks on Wednesday indicated officials’ concerns about Brexit-related financial strains had diminished in the short term; however, they still see lingering threats from Europe in the medium to longer run. China’s economic slowdown has been another source of angst inside the central bank.

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Stocks Move Higher After Fed Statement

The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose Wednesday after the Federal Reserve said it was holding short-term rates steady.

The market widely expected the Fed to leave the benchmark federal-funds rate unchanged. In its statement, the central bank also offered a more upbeat assessment of the U.S. economy, saying “near-term risks to the economic outlook have diminished.”

That language could mean a rate rise as early as September is still a possibility.

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Ahead of the statement, markets were pricing around a 50% chance that the U.S. central bank will raise interest rates in 2016.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 20 points, or 0.1%, in recent trading, compared with a fraction lower before the statement, and the S&P 500 pared losses and was down 0.1%. The Nasdaq Composite rose 0.5%, lifted by tech shares and gains in Apple specifically.

The tech giant, which was up 6.8% in recent trading, gave expectations for the current quarter that exceeded analyst expectations late Tuesday. Apple added about 45 points to the Dow Jones Industrial Average and lifted the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite.

The S&P 500 was dragged down by consumer companies and energy shares. U.S.-traded crude oil prices fell 2.6% to $41.82 a barrel.

Coca-Cola on Wednesday said revenue slid more than expected in the latest quarter on flat soda volume amid continued weakness abroad. Its shares fell 2.8%. Facebook reports after markets close.

Twitter shares tumbled 12% after the social-media company’s results showed it still suffers from shrinking revenue growth and user growth.

Apple reported Tuesday that profit fell 27% in the latest quarter as the company grappled with the first prolonged slump in iPhone sales since the product was introduced in 2007. Photo: AP

Boeing swung to a loss in the latest quarter but it wasn’t as bad as analysts feared, and shares rose 1.9%.

“While earnings remain pretty unimpressive, it looks as if the worst is behind us,” said John Brady, managing director at futures brokerage R.J. O’Brien.

With just over 200 companies in the S&P 500 reporting, earnings in the index are on track to drop 4% in the second quarter from the prior year, marking the fifth consecutive quarter of contracting earnings, according to FactSet. That is a smaller decline than the 5.3% drop analysts had expected as of June 30 and marks a stronger result than the first quarter, FactSet data show.

The Federal Reserve Building in Washington.Photo: Reuters

The Stoxx Europe 600 index gained 0.4%.

Despite the positive momentum, Deutsche Bank AG shares lost 2.9% after the German lender reported its second-quarter net income fell 98% from a year earlier.

The first estimate of second-quarter U.K. gross domestic product was also released Wednesday morning, showing the British economy grew by 0.5% between April and June. Though the period includes the June 23 European Union referendum, only a week of the quarter came after the result was known.

Despite the positive data, sterling dropped 0.3 % against the dollar.

“Brexit is a slow burning issue now, only over the next couple of months will the impact on companies become more clear,” said Patrick Moonen, strategist at NN Investment Partners.

S&P 500 Leaders and Laggards - 1 Day


In Asia, the Nikkei closed up 1.7% after The Wall Street Journal reported that the Japanese government may issue 50-year bonds for the first time to take advantage from ultralow yields on Japanese sovereign debt.

The Japanese yen declined 0.8% against the dollar. The Bank of Japan will announce its latest monetary policy decisions on Friday.

“We think the BOJ will cut rates, but it’s not really going to make much of a difference. The market is pricing in a cut,” said Chris Scicluna, head of economic research at Daiwa Capital Markets. “The focus is really on the fiscal side now.”

Markets are still awaiting details of Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe ’s plans to boost government spending.

Corrections & Amplifications:
The first estimate of second-quarter U.K. gross domestic product was released Wednesday morning. An earlier version of this article incorrectly said it was Thursday. (July 27, 2016)

Write to Mike Bird at Mike.Bird@wsj.com and Corrie Driebusch at corrie.driebusch@wsj.com

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FB reporta mejor de lo esperado.

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AAPL vendió 1 billón de iPhones.

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Fed deja tasas sin cambios, dice que riesgos al panorama económico EEUU se han reducido

Por Lindsay Dunsmuir y Howard Schneider

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - La Reserva Federal mantuvo el miércoles sin cambios las tasas de interés, pero indicó que los riesgos para el panorama económico de Estados Unidos a corto plazo han disminuido, dejando la puerta abierta a la reanudación de su ciclo de endurecimiento monetario más adelante este año.

El banco central de Estados Unidos aseguró que la economía del país se había expandido a un ritmo moderado y que los avances en el mercado laboral fueron fuertes en junio. Agregó que el gasto familiar también había estado "creciendo con fuerza" y resaltó un aumento de la utilización de la fuerza laboral.

Si bien los funcionarios de la Fed dijeron que continuaron monitorizando de cerca los datos de inflación y los acontecimientos económicos y financieros globales, indicaron menos preocupación por posibles impactos que puedan descarrilar el sendero económico de Estados Unidos.

"Los riesgos de corto plazo al panorama económico han disminuido", dijo en su comunicado el comité de la Fed que fija la política monetaria tras una reunión de dos días, donde dejó su tasa clave de interés en un rango del 0,25 a 0,50 por ciento.

No obstante, añadió que en general, las expectativas de inflación mostraban pocos cambios en meses recientes.

La Fed ha mantenido las tasas estables desde diciembre, cuando las elevó por primera vez en casi una década e indicó que podría subirlas cuatro veces en 2016.

Esa expectativa quedó reducida a dos alzas este año después de que los funcionarios del banco central publicaron nuevas proyecciones en las que también rebajaron sus estimaciones del crecimiento de largo plazo para la economía estadounidense.

Según un sondeo de Reuters entre economistas, lo más probable es que el banco central espera hasta diciembre para subir las tasas.

Pese al sólido repunte del crecimiento del mercado laboral el mes pasado y a una economía cercana al pleno empleo, la mayoría de los responsables de la Fed habían instado a la cautela antes de subir las tasas, hasta que hubiera avances concretos en el movimiento de la inflación hacia la meta de 2 por ciento del organismo.

La medición favorita de la Fed actualmente se ubica en 1,6 por ciento y ha estado debajo del objetivo por más de cuatro años.

Una desaceleración económica global, la volatilidad de los mercados financieros y la incertidumbre sobre el impacto de la votación británica de junio para dejar la Unión Europea forzaron reiteradamente a la Fed a aplazar otro incremento de tasas.

Sin embargo, la economía estadounidense ha sufrido escasos impactos iniciales de la votación del llamado "Brexit".

Un conjunto de datos económicos mejores de lo previsto en semanas recientes, en combinación con un alivio de las condiciones financieras, también ayudaron a calmar el nerviosismo.

Este año quedan tres encuentros de política de la Fed: en septiembre, noviembre y diciembre. Un alza de tasas en noviembre en general es visto como poco probable porque esa reunión ocurriría una semana antes de las elecciones presidenciales de Estados Unidos.

Los funcionarios de la Fed ahora volcarán su atención a la estimación inicial del Producto Interno Bruto (PIB) estadounidense del segundo trimestre, que según las previsiones mostraría un saludable repunte desde el trimestre anterior.

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Primera visita oficial de Kuczynski será a China el 13 de septiembre

LIMA (Reuters) - A un día de asumir la presidencia de Perú, Pedro Pablo Kuczynski fijó el 13 de septiembre como la fecha de su primer viaje oficial a China, el principal socio comercial del país andino y el mayor inversor en el clave sector minero.

Kuczynski, un ex ministro de Economía, ya había anunciado su intención de viajar a China en busca de inversores para industrializar el concentrado de cobre y avanzar en la cadena productiva de las materias primas. [ID:nL1N19G1WU]

"China es nuestro principal socio comercial y por eso mi primera visita al exterior será a este país, con el cual festejamos 45 años de relaciones diplomáticas y económicas", dijo Kuczynski a periodistas tras una reunión en su vivienda con el ministro de Medio Ambiente de China, Chen Jining.

El mandatario electo dijo en la víspera que ya estaba sosteniendo conversaciones con posibles inversionistas de China para instalar plantas fundidoras de metal. [ID:nL1N1AC1WM]

Perú, cuyas exportaciones mineras representan el 60 por ciento de todos sus envíos, es el tercer mayor productor mundial de cobre, zinc y plata y el séptimo de oro.

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1218.93 2.07 0.17%
Global Dow 2395.04 0.03 0.00%
Japan: Nikkei 225 16476.84 -187.98 -1.13%
Stoxx Europe 600 341.34 -1.40 -0.41%
UK: FTSE 100 6735.33 -15.10 -0.22%
CURRENCIES7:53 AM EDT 7/28/2016
LAST(MID) CHANGE
Euro (EUR/USD) 1.1081 0.0022
Yen (USD/JPY) 104.68 -0.72
Pound (GBP/USD) 1.3161 -0.0062
Australia $ (AUD/USD) 0.7522 0.0030
Swiss Franc (USD/CHF) 0.9834 -0.0024
WSJ Dollar Index 87.53 -0.15
GOVERNMENT BONDS7:53 AM EDT 7/28/2016
PRICE CHG YIELD
U.S. 10 Year -4/32 1.514
German 10 Year 1/32 -0.079
Japan 10 Year -7/32 -0.275
FUTURES7:43 AM EDT 7/28/2016
LAST CHANGE % CHG
Crude Oil 42.01 0.09 0.21%
Brent Crude 43.34 -0.13 -0.30%
Gold 1349.0 14.5 1.09%
Silver 20.425 0.430 2.15%
E-mini DJIA 18378 -12 -0.07%
E-mini S&P 500

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LAST CHANGE % CHG
Get index data by Email
Japan: Nikkei 225 16476.84 -187.98 -1.13%
Hang Seng 22174.34 -44.65 -0.20%
Shanghai Composite 2994.32 2.32 0.08%
S&P BSE Sensex 28208.62 184.29 0.66%
Australia: S&P/ASX 5556.60 16.90 0.31%
UK: FTSE 100 6739.02 -11.41 -0.17%
DJIA 18472.17 -1.58 -0.01%
Asia Dow 2833.64 5.56 0.20%
Global Dow 2397.12 2.11 0.09%

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LAST CHANGE % CHG
Get index data by Email
Japan: Nikkei 225 16476.84 -187.98 -1.13%
Hang Seng 22174.34 -44.65 -0.20%
Shanghai Composite 2994.32 2.32 0.08%
S&P BSE Sensex 28208.62 184.29 0.66%
Australia: S&P/ASX 5556.60 16.90 0.31%
UK: FTSE 100 6739.02 -11.41 -0.17%
DJIA 18472.17 -1.58 -0.01%
Asia Dow 2833.64 5.56 0.20%
Global Dow 2397.12 2.11 0.09%

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LAST(MID) CHANGE
Euro (EUR/USD) 1.1095 0.0035
Yen (USD/JPY) 104.74 -0.66
Pound (GBP/USD) 1.3163 -0.0060
Australia $ (AUD/USD) 0.7531 0.0039
Swiss Franc (USD/CHF) 0.9822 -0.0036
WSJ Dollar Index 87.46 -0.22
Futures8:21 AM EDT 7/28/2016
LAST CHANGE % CHG
Crude Oil 42.11 0.19 0.45%
Brent Crude 43.47 0.00 0.00%
Gold 1350.8 16.3 1.22%
Silver 20.520 0.525 2.63%
E-mini DJIA 18379 -11 -0.06%
E-mini S&P 500 2159.25 -1.25 -0.06%

Government Bonds8:31 AM EDT 7/28/2016
PRICE CHG YIELD
U.S. 10 Year -7/32 1.525
German 10 Year -0/32 -0.076
Japan 10 Year -7/32 -0.275