Miércoles 05/06/2019 empleo privado de ADP

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Se crearon solo 27,000 empleos en Mayo.

Job growth screeches to a near halt in May, with private payrolls up just 27,000
PUBLISHED 3 MINS AGO

Jeff Cox
@JeffCoxCNBCcom
CNBC.COM
Private payrolls rose 27,000 in May, compared with estimates of 173,000, according to ADP and Moody's Analytics.
The reading was the worst since around the time the economic expansion began and the jobs market bottomed in March 2010 with a loss of 113,000.
"Labor shortages are impeding job growth, particularly at small companies, and layoffs at brick-and-mortar retailers are hurting," says Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's Analytics.
Job seekers stand in line at the employment help center in Miami, Florida.
Getty Images
Job seekers stand in line at the employment help center in Miami, Florida.
Job creation skidded to a near-halt in May in another sign that the U.S. economic momentum is slowing.
Companies added just 27,000 new positions during the month, according to a report Wednesday from payroll processing firm ADP and Moody's Analytics that was well below Dow Jones estimates of 173,000.
The reading was the worst since around the time the economic expansion began and the jobs market bottomed in March 2010 with a loss of 113,000. Since then, the private payrolls count has increased by 21.3 million.

"Job growth is moderating," Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's Analytics, said in a statement. "Labor shortages are impeding job growth, particularly at small companies, and layoffs at brick-and-mortar retailers are hurting."
Indeed, the most damage came at companies with fewer than 50 employees, which reported a loss of 52,000 jobs, and in the goods-producing sector, which saw a decline of 43,000. Almost all of the small business loss (50,000) came at firms with fewer than 20 employees, while the big loser in the goods sector was construction, where 36,000 positions were lost.
Large companies withstood the slowdown, adding 68,000 jobs, while those with 50 to 499 employees contributed 11,000.
The anemic May growth comes after a powerful surge in April of 271,000, the highest since July though revised down 4,000 from the initial reading. Private job creation in the ADP/Moody's count has averaged 188,000 a month in 2019.
"Following an overly strong April, May marked the smallest gain since the expansion began," Ahu Yildirmaz, vice president and co-head of the ADP Research Institute, said in a statement. "Large companies continue to remain strong as they are better equipped to compete for labor in a tight labor market."
The disappointing report comes two days before the more closely watched official government reading on nonfarm payrolls. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones expect the Labor Department to report growth of 180,000, down from April's 263,000, and the unemployment report to hold at a 50-year low of 3.6%. The ADP report occasionally can cause economists to revise their expectations for nonfarm payrolls, though the two numbers can differ widely.
At a sector level, all the gains came on the services side, which added 71,000 positions. Health care and social assistance grew by 34,000, followed by professional and business services (22,000), and leisure and hospitality (16,000). The "other services" category saw a drop of 9,000, while information lost 3,000 and education decreased by 1,000.
All of the major goods producing categories reported losses, with natural resources and mining down 4,000 and manufacturing off by 3,000. Franchise jobs also fell by 4,800.
The news comes at a sensitive time for the economy.
After a solid 2018 that saw GDP up 2.9% and an unusually strong first-quarter growth rate of 3.1%, economists now expect a slowdown through at least the next two quarters. CNBC's Rapid Update survey forecasts gains of just 1.7% in the second quarter.
Financial markets have slowed considerably after a record-setting pace to start the year. Even with Tuesday's powerful rally, the Dow Jones Industrial Average has fallen 4.4% in the past month.
Markets are betting that the Federal Reserve steps in with at least two and possibly three rate cuts this year. In a speech Tuesday, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said the central bank is prepared to "act as appropriate" to keep the expansion going, which markets took as an encouraging sign that policy easing could be on the way.

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LAST CHG %CHG
Crude Oil Futures 52.75 -0.73 -1.36
Brent Crude Futures 61.53 -0.44 -0.71
Gold Futures 1345.10 16.40 1.23
Silver Futures 14.940 0.171 1.16
DJIA Futures 25425 79 0.31
S&P 500 Futures 2813

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Se frenó la creación de empleo en Mayo, el Viernes veremos las cifras totales.

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+118

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+150.53

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LAST CHG %CHG
DJIA 25476.78 144.60 0.57
S&P 500 2815.24 11.97 0.43
Nasdaq Composite 7562.56 35.44 0.47
Japan: Nikkei 225 20776.10 367.56 1.80
UK: FTSE 100 7218.01 3.72 0.05
Crude Oil Futures 52.71 -0.77 -1.44
Gold Futures 1342.30 13.60 1.02
Yen 108.16 0.02 0.02
Euro 1

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https://money.cnn.com/data/dow30/

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El Nasdaq en rojo

LAST CHG %CHG
DJIA 25411.35 79.17 0.31
S&P 500 2805.26 1.99 0.07
Nasdaq Composite 7510.41 -16.70 -0.22
Japan: Nikkei 225 20776.10 367.56 1.80
UK: FTSE 100 7219.88 5.59 0.08
Crude Oil Futures 52.61 -0.87 -1.63
Gold Futures 1338.80 10.10 0.76
Yen 108.00 -0.14 -0.13
Euro 1.1270

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Suben los inventarios, oil baja 3%
Oil sinks 3% as US crude stockpiles unexpectedly surge by 6.8 million barrels
PUBLISHED 12 HOURS AGO UPDATED MOMENTS AGO
REUTERS
U.S. crude inventories rose unexpectedly last week, while gasoline and distillate stockpiles built more than expected, American Petroleum Institute data showed.
Oil prices have fallen sharply on concerns about slowing demand, but won some respite Tuesday after a global stock market rally on hopes the Fed may trim interest rates.
The oil market has also been weighed down by concerns about slowing global growth due to heightened trade tensions.
A Petrobras oil platform floats in the Atlantic Ocean near Guanabara Bay in Rio de Janeiro.
Getty Images
A Petrobras oil platform floats in the Atlantic Ocean near Guanabara Bay in Rio de Janeiro.
Oil prices resumed their slide on Wednesday, dragged down after an unexpected gain in U.S. inventories, but losses were capped by a recovery in global equities on hopes of an interest rate cut from the Federal Reserve.
Brent futures were down 59 cents at $61.38 a barrel around 10:25 a.m. ET (1425 GMT), after touching a four-month low at $60.21 during Tuesday's session.
U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude was down 86 cents, or 1.6%, at $52.62 a barrel. WTI hit its lowest since February at $52.11 on Monday.

U.S. crude inventories rose unexpectedly last week, while gasoline and distillate stockpiles built more than expected, data from the American Petroleum Institute showed on Tuesday.
Expect oil demand to pick up in summer, says expert

Crude stocks rose by 3.5 million barrels in the week to May 31 to 478 million barrels, compared with analysts' expectations for a decrease of 849,000 barrels.
Official numbers from the U.S. Energy Information Administration are due later on Wednesday.
"The stock build does not help sentiment in the current market environment," ING bank said.
Oil prices have fallen sharply on concerns about slowing demand, but won some respite on Tuesday after a global stock market rally on hopes the Federal Reserve may trim interest rates. Equities extended gains on Wednesday.
"Yesterday's upswing on the back of rising stock markets was halted by an unexpectedly sharp rise in U.S. crude oil and product stocks," Commerzbank said.
The oil market has been weighed down by concerns about slowing global growth due to the U.S.-China trade war and President Donald Trump's threats last week to place tariffs on Mexican imports.
To prevent oversupply and prop up the market, OPEC, together with allies including Russia, has withheld production since the start of the year.
The group will set its policy when it meets later this month or in early July.
Leykum on energy
Leykum on energy
Underlining concerns about oversupply, the head of oil giant Rosneft Igor Sechin said on Tuesday that Russia should pump at will and he would seek compensation from the government if cuts were extended.
A Gazpromneft official said Russian oil companies are ready to boost output if the supply cuts are eased.
Russia's average oil output was 10.87 million barrels per day on June 1-3, down from an average of 11.11 million bpd in May, two sources familiar with official data said.
The decline follows the discovery in mid-April of contaminated Urals crude in the Druzhba pipeline to Europe.
Further pressuring oil prices and undermining OPEC's efforts to tighten the market has been a surge in U.S. output to record highs, leading to more American crude being exported

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MERCADOS
Precio del cobre cae 16,3% en últimos doce meses: ¿cómo afecta a la economía peruana?
Menores expectativas de crecimiento de China explican deterioro. Ingreso fiscales podrían verse afectados en S/1.490 millones.

El yacimiento Las Bambas, uno de los mayores del país, produce alrededor de 400,000 toneladas de cobre al año.

Nicolás Castillo
05.06.2019 / 07:01 am
El cobre, el principal producto de exportación del país, experimenta una caída pronunciada en el último año, con lo cual pone en riesgo el crecimiento de la economía peruana, en el corto plazo.

El precio del metal rojo cerró ayer en US$2,63 la onza, lo que representa una disminución de 16,3% respecto al año anterior. La importancia de la cotización del cobre sobre la economía peruana radica en la relevancia que tiene sobre las exportaciones y por ende sobre los ingresos fiscales. Una menor recaudación tiene un impacto negativo en el déficit fiscal y en el endeudamiento.


Varios son los factores detrás del deterioro del valor del insumo. Para Luis Eduardo Falen, jefe de macroeconomía del área de Estrategia y Análisis de Intéligo, la principal causa es la guerra comercial, que conlleva a menores expectativas de crecimiento sobre la economía china y por ende a una menor demanda del metal.

“En términos de oferta y demanda del cobre, hay espacio para que la cotización del metal suba todavía, sin embargo, la caída obedece a la incertidumbre de lo que pueda pasar con China”, sostuvo Falen.

Pedro Cornejo, socio de Decision-Capital, coincidió con Falen que la guerra comercial es el principal factor que está detrás de la caída del precio del metal rojo al igual que de la subida del tipo de cambio.

De acuerdo con Cornejo, la evolución del precio del cobre refleja también las menores expectativas de crecimiento de la economía mundial. Al ser utilizado el metal en la industria, si se espera que la economía no crezca, lo mismo va a suceder con la demanda del metal.

Cornejo recordó que el año pasado, la subida de las tasas de interés por parte de la Reserva Federal llevó a que las expectativas de crecimiento sobre Estados Unidos sean más cautas.

TRANSMISIÓN
A decir de Falen, el primer canal de transmisión de la caída del precio del cobre son las exportaciones. Esto, porque las ventas al exterior de este metal representan alrededor del 27% de los exportado por el país. Así, una reducción en el precio disminuye el valor de los envíos.

Según Falen, esto a su vez impacta en las decisiones de producción de las empresas mineras, que pueden verse incentivadas a reducir sus operaciones de minado por las menores expectativas de ingreso, lo que afecta la producción y el crecimiento de la economía.

“Somos una economía que depende mucho de los commodities y uno de los principales productos que vendemos el cobre. Una caída en el precio, afecta las expectativas del crecimiento de la economía local”, dijo por su parte Cornejo.

También, la caída del precio del cobre tiene un impacto directo sobre los ingresos fiscales. De acuerdo con el Consejo Fiscal, el 27% de los errores de proyección de los ingresos del gobierno entre el 2008-2018 obedeció a los errores de proyección del precio de las exportaciones. Entre estas, las cotización del precio del cobre.

Incluso, el Ministerio de Economía estima que la caída del precio cobre en 10% o en 30 centavos de dólar generaría una reducción en los ingresos fiscales en 0,2% del PBI (aproximadamente S/1.490 millones).

Recientemente, el MEF proyectó que la economía peruana alcanzaría un crecimiento de 4,2% en este año y los ingresos fiscales alcanzarían el 19,5% del PBI, sobre la base de un precio promedio proyectado para el cobre en US$3 por libra. Sin embargo, el precio promedio del cobre, en lo que va del año, alcanza los US$2,82.

Por esta razón -y el MEF lo reconoce- es clave para el país la implementación de medidas tributarias adicionales que fortalezcan las cuentas fiscales. Según el Consejo, de no cumplir el MEF con estas medidas puede comprometer el déficit, la deuda o peor aún contraer el gasto, lo que afectaría a la economía.