Miercoles 09/03/11 El euro esta caro

[admin]

SPANISHMARCH 8, 2011, 6:37 P.M. ET
Chrysler y Fiat se pelean para fabricar una camioneta
Por Jeff Bennett

Ciudad de México—Las compañías Chrysler Group LLC y Fiat SpA, un año y medio después de haber formado una alianza, están embarcadas en una competencia interna por una camioneta comercial.

La unidad mexicana de Chrysler y la brasileña de Fiat se disputan recibir la asignación para fabricar la actual camioneta Ducato de Fiat, indicó el presidente de Chrysler México, Joseph ChamaSrour.

Obtener el premio del encargo implicaría la construcción de una nueva planta para Chrysler en México, dado que la estructura mecánica de la camioneta podría servir como base para varios modelos nuevos y versiones más pequeñas que podrían ser comercializadas en todo el continente americano, señaló ChamaSrour.

Las propuestas tanto de Brasil como de México llegarán al escritorio de Sergio Marchionne, el presidente ejecutivo de Fiat y de Chrysler, antes de que termine este mes, afirmó ChamaSrour.

"Estamos analizando los preparando de México y nuestros colegas de Brasil están haciendo lo mismo con los de Brasil", agregó.

"Una vez tengamos todos los números listos, Sergio tendrá que decidir qué es lo mejor para la compañía", explicó.

Marchionne está intentando usar las diferentes capacidades de producción de Fiat y Chrysler para lograr que las dos automotrices sean más eficientes. Fiat compró una participación en Chrysler cuando la automotriz estadounidense entró en protección por bancarrota en 2009.

Marchionne ya mencionó la posibilidad de construir un utilitario deportivo Maserati en la planta del Jeep Grand Cherokee que Chrysler tiene en Detroit.

ChamaSrour espera hacer más atractiva su propuesta al asegurarse incentivos o préstamos del gobierno mexicano.

Si México resulta elegido, la planta posiblemente sea construida en Saltillo, México, donde Chrysler ya opera una fábrica.

"Saltillo es como el Detroit de México", dijo ChamaSrour. "Es el centro de la producción automotriz. Todos los proveedores tienen instalaciones allí y eso lo hace eficiente", explicó.

[admin]

Este Es el mejor rally desde 1955 y empieza su tercer anio.
Executive  · Europe  · U.S.  · Stocks  · Technology  · Funds
Birinyi Buys as Biggest Bull Rally Since `55 Hits Third Year
By Michael Patterson, Whitney Kisling and Rita Nazareth - Mar 9, 2011 10:08 AM ET

Laszlo Birinyi, who told clients to buy as the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index fell to a 12-year low of 676.53 on March 9, 2009, says gains that added about $28 trillion to global share values will outlast previous increases as investors who missed the first phase play catch-up. Valuations are still below historical averages, said Barton Biggs, the hedge-fund manager who purchased stocks before the S&P 500’s 95 percent advance through yesterday.

Rallies in equities, corporate debt and commodities illustrate how the more than $12 trillion pumped into the financial system by governments and central banks is spurring a recovery from the worst global recession since the 1930s. While bears say prices will fall once stimulus ends, billionaire Kenneth Fisher and Byron Wien of Blackstone Group LP (BX) are betting on stocks whose profits are most tied to economic growth.

“These kinds of strong beginnings lead to long and durable bull markets,” Birinyi, who founded Westport, Connecticut-based research and money management firm Birinyi Associates Inc. in 1989 after a decade on the trading desk at Salomon Brothers, said in a March 7 phone interview. “While there will be corrections and while there will be pauses, we’re still of the view that this is a bull market that we expect to go on for several years.”

Previous Bull Markets

Even after almost doubling in 24 months, the S&P 500’s two- year return is 36 percentage points below the average bull- market gain of 131 percent since 1962, according to data compiled by Bloomberg and Birinyi Associates. The 730-day rally without a decline of 20 percent or more compares with an average duration of 1,407 days, the data show.

The S&P 500 fell 0.4 percent to 1,316.06 at 10 a.m. in New York, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average declined 0.3 percent to 12,178.24.

Genworth Financial Inc. (GNW), the Richmond, Virginia-based mortgage guarantor and life insurer, increased the most in the S&P 500 since the market’s bottom, climbing more than 14-fold. General Growth Properties Inc. (GGP), the Chicago-based mall owner, led the MSCI All-Country World Index of 45 developed and emerging markets, rising 5,174 percent, data compiled by Bloomberg show.

Profit Growth

The two-year advance is the biggest for the S&P 500 since the rally following the end of the Korean War and the election of President Dwight D. Eisenhower, according to data compiled by Bloomberg and S&P. The index has risen in 18 of 24 months, data compiled by Bloomberg show.

Five straight quarters of U.S. profit growth and the biggest yearly increase since 1988 have held down valuations, data compiled by Bloomberg show. The U.S. benchmark index is trading at 15.5 times reported earnings, compared with the average ratio of 19.7 at bull-market peaks. The S&P 500’s earnings yield, or annual income divided by the index price, is 2.96 percentage points higher than the payout on 10-year Treasuries, the widest gap at the two-year point of any bull market since 1962, the data show.

“I don’t think valuations are stretched,” Biggs, who oversees $1.4 billion as managing partner of New York-based Traxis Partners LP, said in a March 7 phone interview. “The next move in the S&P 500 is more likely to be up than down, and that move could be 10 percent to 15 percent.”

Fed Rates

When Biggs bought shares in March 2009, the purchases were a contrarian bet driven by what he said was the highest level of bearish sentiment ever. Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. had collapsed six months earlier, Warren Buffett, the chairman of Berkshire Hathaway Inc., said the economy was in “shambles” and New York University’s Nouriel Roubini, who foresaw the crisis, said the S&P 500 may fall to 600.

Stocks surged as record-low Federal Reserve interest rates, along with a $787 billion stimulus bill signed into law by U.S. President Barack Obama and his administration’s plan to rid banks of toxic assets, boosted investor confidence. Buying shares is a “potentially good deal” for long-term investors, Obama said six days before the slump ended.

Now Biggs is counting on economic and profit growth to spur gains. Citigroup Inc.’s Economic Surprise Index for the U.S., a gauge of how much reports are exceeding the median economist estimates in Bloomberg News surveys, surged to a record last week as manufacturing growth topped forecasts and the jobless rate unexpectedly fell to an almost two-year low.

‘Major Expansion’

S&P 500 companies will boost earnings by 17 percent during the next 12 months to a record $99.57 a share, according to analyst estimates compiled by Bloomberg. Profits in the MSCI All-Country Index may climb 20 percent, analyst forecasts show.

“We’re in a major expansion globally,” according to Fisher, who oversees $44 billion at Woodside, California-based Fisher Investments Inc. and said in September 2009 that the rally in equities was too big to reverse. “Corporate earnings are great.”

The S&P 500’s annualized appreciation since the 2009 low is 43 percent, compared with predictions for a “new normal” of below-average returns by Mohamed El-Erian and Bill Gross, the co-chief investment officers at Pacific Investment Management Co., which oversees the world’s largest bond fund in Newport Beach, California. Pimco said in May 2009 that financial assets would trail historical averages because of government deficits and increased regulation.

Sell Warnings

“Today, markets are reacting to a tug of war,” El-Erian said in an e-mail to Bloomberg News yesterday. “On the one hand, improving endogenous growth dynamics in the U.S. and core Europe, and particularly Germany. And, on the other hand, headwinds including high and volatile oil prices, complex policy challenges, budget uncertainties and Europe’s peripheral debt crisis.”

For analysts who warned investors to sell before the credit crisis that sent the S&P 500 down as much as 57 percent starting in 2007, the rally proved harder to anticipate. David Rosenberg of Gluskin Sheff & Associates Inc., ranked the No. 2 economist by Institutional Investor magazine in 2008, and Roubini stuck to bearish forecasts. Now, they say the end of stimulus spending and rising oil may threaten returns.

Rosenberg, based in Toronto, said in March 2009 that the S&P 500 was at risk of falling to 600 by October of that year. Instead, it climbed 53 percent to 1,036.19 on Oct. 30. Three days before the index reached its 2010 low, Rosenberg saw a pattern that he said would bring more stock losses and cited the outlook for earnings and “heightened uncertainty” about the economy. The U.S. expanded at 2.6 percent and 2.8 percent annual rates in the third and fourth quarters, respectively, while S&P 500 earnings exceeded estimates in both periods.

No Straight Line

“Nothing moves in a straight line,” Rosenberg said yesterday in an e-mailed response to questions from Bloomberg News. The economic expansion is already reflected in stock prices, and the market will probably fall once the Fed stops buying assets, he said. It’s “time to take risk off the table,” he said.

Declines in bearish bets and data showing more hedge funds are speculating stocks will rise than at any time since 2007 may be signs that the pool of buyers for equities is being depleted.

A gauge compiled by TrimTabs Investment Research and BarclayHedge Ltd. measuring how heavily hedge funds are invested in stocks rose to 33 percent in January, the last month data are available, compared with an average of 29 percent since 2000. Shares borrowed and sold to profit from declines dropped four straight months to 3.3 percent of all stock at the end of January, according to data compiled by NYSE Euronext.

Keep Falling

Roubini said on March 9, 2009, that it was “highly likely” the S&P 500 would fall to 600 in 2009 and that the recession would last into 2010, even if the U.S. did “everything right with fiscal and monetary policy.” The world’s largest economy stopped contracting in June 2009, according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. The economist called for slower growth in October 2010, when he said GDP growth could slow to 1 percent by the end of last year as stimulus becomes a “fiscal drag.” The expansion was almost three times that rate during the final three months of 2010.

Some developed economies may slide back into recession if oil surges to $140 a barrel, Roubini, chairman of Roubini Global Economics LLC in New York, told reporters in Dubai yesterday. The 52-year-old economist also said the European Central Bank may raise interest rates “too soon,” curbing growth and hurting indebted nations including Greece that face record borrowing costs.

Corporate Bonds

The recovery turned a $1,000 investment in the MSCI All- Country World Index into about $2,097, including dividends, according to Bloomberg data. That compares with $1,593 for commodities, $1,277 for global corporate bonds and $1,044 for Treasuries, according to indexes compiled by Standard & Poor’s, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (GS) and Bank of America Merrill Lynch.

U.S. investment-grade debt performed better than bonds from other nations, returning 35 percent over the same period, while speculative-grade credit almost matched the S&P 500, rising more than 90 percent since March 9, 2009.

“Over the past few years anything associated with risk has done phenomenally well,” said William Cunningham, co-head of global active portfolio management and head of global fixed income research at Boston-based State Street Global Advisors, which oversees almost $2 trillion. With interest rates likely to rise, “fixed income will deliver less than equities going forward,” he said.

‘Passing the Baton’

Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke has remained committed to the central bank’s plan of purchasing $600 billion of assets through June and said March 2 that he hasn’t ruled out an expansion of the program. There’s a 90 percent chance the Fed will keep its target for the overnight lending rate between banks in a range of zero to 0.25 percent at its June meeting, compared with an 87 percent chance a month ago, according to CME Group Inc. (CME) futures.

“The government is slowly passing the baton to the real economy, and we’re moving from government stimulus to a self- sustaining growth,” said Robert Doll, chief equity strategist for fundamental equities at New York-based BlackRock Inc. (BLK), the world’s biggest money manager with $3.6 trillion.

The leaders of the equity bull market are shifting as the U.S. economic expansion accelerates and investors become more willing to risk money on companies where weaker economic growth or earnings increases have pushed down valuations.

Equity Funds

The MSCI All-Country World Index’s 100 worst-performing stocks of 2010 have risen 5.7 percent as a group this year, while last year’s best performers fell 0.2 percent, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. U.S. stocks are beating developing- nation shares after the S&P 500 climbed 5.1 percent so far in 2011, compared with a 1.4 percent drop in the MSCI Emerging Markets Index.

Investors have added about $24 billion to U.S. equity funds this year, while pulling more than $16 billion from emerging markets, according to data and estimates compiled by the Investment Company Institute and EPFR Global.

Biggs is placing his biggest bet on American companies, with about 55 percent of his holdings in the country, and Doll said U.S. shares are likely to beat equities in other nations. Both favor stocks that rally most during economic expansions, including commodity producers and technology companies.

Apple Inc. (AAPL), the world’s most valuable technology company, is Birinyi’s biggest holding. The Cupertino, California-based maker of iPads and iPhones will boost net income 53 percent this year, according to the average analyst estimate compiled by Bloomberg. The shares have advanced 10 percent since Dec. 31, rebounding from a 2.3 percent drop on Jan. 18 after Chief Executive Officer Steve Jobs said he would take a medical leave of absence.

“This is going to be a good year for the stock market,” said Wien, the vice chairman of Blackstone Advisory Partners. “The real growth in the U.S. economy is going to be favorable. I don’t think valuations are excessive.”

To contact the reporters on this story: Michael Patterson in London at mpatterson10@bloomberg.net; Whitney Kisling in New York at wkisling@bloomberg.net; Rita Nazareth in New York at rnazareth@bloomberg.net

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Nick Baker at nbaker7@bloomberg.net

[RCHF]

Tips si deseas invertir en fondos mutuos
Antes de hacerlo debes tener en cuenta algunas consideraciones, como, por ejemplo, que existe una tendencia creciente de los fondos en soles

Por Fabiana Sánchez

Si cuentas con un excedente de dinero y deseas obtener ganancias, puedes invertirlo en los fondos mutuos. Se trata de una alternativa diversificada conformada por los aportes voluntarios de personas tanto naturales como jurídicas.

Pero antes de hacerlo debes tener en cuenta algunas consideraciones, como, por ejemplo, que existe una tendencia creciente de los fondos en soles, pues si en el año 2004 representaban el 16% del total, al cierre de 2010, equivalen al 36%.

Augusto Rodríguez, gerente de Credifondo, recomienda que cuando inviertas lo hagas en la moneda en la que utilizará el dinero. De esa manera si tienes pensado comprar una casa podrías considerar una inversión en dólares, pero si lo haces para pagar la universidad de sus hijos en el Perú, la inversión debería ser en soles. “De esta manera evitarás el riesgo cambiario”, afirma Rodríguez.

INDICADOR DE RIESGO. Otro punto que debes tener en cuenta, sugiere el ejecutivo, es decidir si deseas preservar su dinero o apreciarlo. Si escoges la primera opción puedes elegir un Fondo de Renta Fija, en el cual se encuentran el 80% de personas naturales y jurídicas, y cuyo dinero es destinado a instrumentos de deudas como son los depósitos a plazo o bonos.

Sin embargo, si deseas ver crecer sus ingresos y estás dispuesto a correr el riesgo de pasar todo un año con pérdidas que podrían representar el 50%, el Fondo de Renta Variable es lo que puedes escoger.

“A mayor capacidad de no ponerse nervioso con una pérdida temporal, mayor tolerancia al riesgo”, indica Rodríguez. En este tipo de fondo tu dinero es invertido en acciones y pueden pasar hasta cinco años para que veas ganancias, pero la rentabilidad solo hasta 2010 fue de 54.45%.

“Un mayor plazo te permitirá tener más capacidad de asumir el riesgo, pues se incrementa la probabilidad de revertir un mal resultado en el tiempo”, puntualiza.

Ver cuadro de rentabilidad en:
http://peru21.pe/noticia/724844/tips-si ... dos-mutuos

[admin]

-1.44

[jonibol]

Este viernes es el Peru Day 2011 en Wall Street, Aguila, vas a ir?

[jonibol]

Fondo Total Return PIMCO sale de deuda Gobierno EEUU
miércoles 9 de marzo de 2011 15:24 GYT Imprimir[-] Texto [+] Por Jennifer Ablan

NEW YORK, March (Reuters) - El fondo Total Return de PIMCO, el mayor fondo de bonos en el mundo, ha desechado todos los valores vinculados al Gobierno de Estados Unidos, incluyendo bonos del Tesoro y deuda de agencias, dijo el miércoles una fuente familiarizada con las tenencias del fondo.

En enero, el fondo Total Return, de 236.900 millones de dólares, de la firma Pacific Investment Management Co., recortó sus tenencias de deuda del Gobierno de Estados Unidos a sus niveles mínimos en al menos dos años, e incrementó sus tenencias de efectivo y deuda de otras naciones desarrolladas.

Los valores vinculados al Gobierno incluyen Bonos del Tesoro, Bonos Protegidos contra Inflación (TIPS), valores de agencias, contratos de swaps de tasas, de futuros y opciones y papeles de empresas garantizados por la Corporación Federal de Seguros de Depósitos.

Las tenencias en efectivo del fondo Total Return habían aumentado a 54.500 millones de dólares al 28 de febrero desde 11.900 millones de dólares a fines de enero. Un portavoz de PIMCO se abstuvo de comentar la información.

Bill Gross, el administrador del fondo que ayuda a supervisar más de 1,1 billones de dólares como codirector de inversiones de PIMCO, ha criticado con frecuencia el déficit fiscal de Estados Unidos y su impacto en la inflación.

Gross ha promovido la compra de bonos con rentabilidades más "seguras" y altas, como los papeles corporativos, que resisten mejor la posible erosión que causa la inflación.

En diciembre, PIMCO dijo que podría comenzar a invertir hasta un 10 por ciento de sus activos en valores de renta variable, como bonos convertibles y acciones preferentes, tras el primer trimestre del 2011.

"Esto es ciertamente una importante señal en el sentido de que se están alejando de los bonos del Tesoro a favor de productos con un mayor diferencial", dijo Christian Cooper, jefe de operaciones de derivados del dólar en Jeffries & Co.

(Reporte de Jennifer Ablan)

[admin]

Yields down 3.47%

Oil down 103.99

[jonibol]

Inflación impactando en minerales; si suben los precios hay que subir tasas de referencia, lo que modera el crecimiento. China lo ha estado haciendo desde el año pasado.

[jonibol]

Varias cupríferas en zona de soporte: SCCO, CV, DNT

[admin]

+2.04

[admin]

IBM recibio un upgraded. Mejores margines de ganancias en sus servicios. La accion en precio record.

Bill Gross salio definitivamente de los bonos americanos, dijo que los precios al alza ya se habian acabado. Ademas lo preocupa la deuda, el deficit, etc.

Yields down 3.48%

[admin]

Dijeron que las reservas de petroleo son para tiempos de crisis, guerras, shocks de oferta, no en estos momentos cuando Cushing explota con tanto petroleo.

+4.43

[admin]

El Dow Jones fluctuo todo el dia entre perdidas y ganancias, sin direccion, cerro 1.29 puntos a la baja a 12,213.09 puntos.

Oil down 104.16

Yields down 3.47% indicando hoy dia mayor preferencia por los bonos americanos que por las acciones.

Euro down 1.3903

Poco volumen hoy dia y alta volatilidad.

VIX up 20.17

[admin]

Jobinol gracias por informarme, te soy sincera no tenia idea. Los Viernes juego tennis a la 1:30 p.m. Feliz Dia Peru!!

[admin]

Republicanos buscan vincular TLC Corea a pactos Colombia, Panamá
miércoles 9 de marzo de 2011 13:53 GYT
Imprimir[-] Texto [+] WASHINGTON, mar 9 ( Reuters) - Un acuerdo de libre comercio con Corea del Sur no será ratificado por el Congreso a menos que sea presentado junto con los pactos suscritos con Panamá y Colombia, dijo el miércoles el presidente de la Comisión de Finanzas del Senado estadounidense, Max Baucus.
"Está claro para mí que ninguno de estos acuerdos comerciales van a ser aprobados a menos que sean presentados en un paquete", sea en un mismo proyecto o en iniciativas independientes presentadas al mismo tiempo, dijo Baucus en una audiencia con el representante comercial de la Casa Blanca, Ron Kirk.

Kirk dijo que el Gobierno de Barack Obama estaba trabajando para resolver los asuntos pendientes con Colombia y Panamá, con la intención de presentar los acuerdos al Congreso este año.

"Creemos que podemos cerrar nuestras negociaciones con Colombia rápidamente", afirmó Kirk.