Jueves 20/05/10 Indicadores lideres, Fed de Philadelphia

Los acontecimientos mas importantes en el mundo de las finanzas, la economia (macro y micro), las bolsas mundiales, los commodities, el mercado de divisas, la politica monetaria y fiscal y la politica como variables determinantes en el movimiento diario de las acciones. Opiniones, estrategias y sugerencias de como navegar el fascinante mundo del stock market.

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Notapor admin » Jue May 20, 2010 6:00 am

Yields down 3.34%
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Notapor admin » Jue May 20, 2010 6:03 am

La venta de bonos por parte de Espania fue exitosa lo cual es una senia positiva para ese pais.

Los technicias esta bearish con los indices americanos mirando el nivel de 1,100 en el S&P 500 y despues el de 1,066.

Los indices estan cerca del nivel del territorio de correccion o 10% a la baja.

Por su parte Dubai World logra un acuerdo de su deuda por $23.5 billones sin ayuda del gobierno.
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Notapor admin » Jue May 20, 2010 6:07 am

Shell y BP le siguen vendiendo a Iran aunque mantienen un perfil muy bajo y esconden sus barcos de embarque.

Un grupo de democratas se unieron a los republicanos para bloquear la reforma del sector financiero. Seguiran debatiendo.

Las ganancias de Sears caen 39%

Las ventas retail en Inglaterra suben.
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Notapor admin » Jue May 20, 2010 6:08 am

El cobre debajo de $3

Copper May 20,07:06
Bid/Ask 2.9668 - 2.9713
Change +0.0204 +0.69%
Low/High 2.9418 - 3.0348
Charts

Nickel May 20,07:05
Bid/Ask 9.6192 - 9.7099
Change +0.0907 +0.95%
Low/High 9.5285 - 9.8800
Charts

Aluminum May 20,07:03
Bid/Ask 0.8810 - 0.8855
Change +0.0014 +0.15%
Low/High 0.8796 - 0.9023
Charts

Zinc May 20,07:06
Bid/Ask 0.8220 - 0.8265
Change -0.0045 -0.55%
Low/High 0.8220 - 0.8583
Charts

Lead May 20,07:06
Bid/Ask 0.7774 - 0.7819
Change +0.0000 +0.00%
Low/High 0.7751 - 0.8069
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Notapor admin » Jue May 20, 2010 6:11 am

El swap de deuda de Argentina estuvo por debajo de las expectativas de los analistas.

Lula tendra que decidir si veta el aumento de 7.7% de aumento a las pensiones, el aumento agregaria $6 billones al deficit de Brasil Esperemos que Lula este mirando lo que pasa en Europa y no empenie el pais para las generaciones venideras. El Senado Brasilero ha aprobado el aumento.
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Notapor admin » Jue May 20, 2010 6:17 am

La crisis europea deprimira al euro aun mas todavia por los anios venideros dice UBS. El nivel a largo plazo para el euro sera de 1.10.

La caida del euro ayuda a las exportadoras europeas.

Europe’s Rescue for Greece Brings Euro to New Normal (Update1)
By Tony Czuczka and Anchalee Worrachate

May 20 (Bloomberg) -- Europe’s debt crisis will depress the euro still further after it declined to the lowest level since 2006, according to UBS AG and BNP Paribas SA. For years to come.

For the 16 countries using the currency, that isn’t all bad. A drop over three to four years would benefit European exporters in countries such as Germany, where foreign sales help offset reductions in government spending and restraint by consumers concerned about inflation. U.S. exports, which President Barack Obama says he wants to double within five years, may become less competitive.

“The euro depreciation is very good news for the region” because the rest of the world economy is expanding, said Charles Wyplosz, head of the International Center for Monetary and Banking Studies in Geneva. “This is going to bring a welcome boost that may save the euro zone from outright recession.”

While Wyplosz puts the euro’s long-term “fair value” at between about $1.10 and $1.20, currency movements “tend to overshoot,” he said. “My bet is that the euro still has ample room to go down before it goes up.”

Wyplosz’s view is shared by strategists at UBS, Danske Bank A/S, Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc and Bank of America Merrill Lynch. They predict the euro will trade at between $1.15 and $1.26 by the end of the year, with BNP Paribas saying it may fall below parity with the dollar in the first quarter of 2011, according to 43 forecasts compiled by Bloomberg.

Greek Contagion

The euro fell to the lowest against the dollar in more than four years on May 17 and is down 14 percent this year as the fiscal crisis spreading from Greece undermined confidence in the currency. Purchasing power parity, a measure of the relative cost of goods, indicates the euro remains 9.8 percent overvalued against the dollar, based on data compiled by Bloomberg.

Even if Greece is unable to meet debt obligations and is forced to reschedule interest and maturity payments, it will remain within the European Monetary Union and retain the euro, said bankers in Athens requesting anonymity because they are handling the government’s finances.

The currency’s value is still higher than the weekly average rate of $1.1833 since its introduction in 1999. The euro’s all-time low was $0.8272 in October 2000; the peak was $1.6038 on July 15, 2008. The common currency slipped 0.3 percent to $1.2378 as of 9:30 a.m. in London.

The euro may stick at lower levels for “three, four years” as Europe grapples with its fiscal crisis, Hans-Guenter Redeker, global head of currency strategy at BNP Paribas, said in a phone interview.

ECB Strategy

The euro may fall over the next three months to $1.16 as the sovereign debt crisis forces the European Central Bank to keep borrowing costs low, Credit Suisse Group AG strategists wrote in a note to clients on May 18.

The decline in the euro may hurt demand for the region’s sovereign bonds at the time when governments are issuing a record amount of debt. Standard Life Investments said on May 18 the fund has cut its holdings of European government securities, including German bonds, citing fiscal challenges and the tumbling euro.

“Countries in the euro region are bringing forward fiscal tightening and that reduces a chance of a swift and strong economic recovery,” said Richard Batty, a global investment strategist at the Edinburgh-based fund, which has $175 billion of assets under management. “That hurts the euro. By buying euro-denominated assets, you are simply buying into the idea that the euro will remain stable.”

Germany, ECB

Germany unilaterally imposed a ban on so-called naked short- selling and speculation on euro-area government bonds with credit default swaps on May 18 to reduce “exceptional volatility” in the market.

The country didn’t tell the European Central Bank that it planned such restrictions, ECB executive board member Jose Manuel Gonzalez-Paramo said in an interview with Il Sole 24 Ore newspaper.

The $1 trillion lending backstop for indebted euro nations agreed to by European leaders on May 10 also won’t halt the slide because investors remain concerned about government debt, the growth outlook for Europe’s weaker economies and trade imbalances within the euro area, said Mansoor Mohi-uddin, chief currency strategist at UBS in Singapore.

The Frankfurt-based ECB probably will refrain from raising interest rates to help offset declining government spending in the region, Mohi-uddin said. “The combination of tightened fiscal policy and looser monetary policy historically leads to a weaker currency,” he said.

“Biggest Headaches”

Even so, pressure on the ECB to raise rates may grow as the euro’s decline feeds inflation by making imports more expensive. European inflation accelerated to a 16-month high in April, the European Union’s statistics office said May 18.

For European exporters, the euro’s biggest crisis since the monetary union’s debut is an opportunity after China overtook Germany as the biggest exporter of goods last year. Bayerische Motoren Werke AG, the world’s largest maker of luxury vehicles, gets almost a quarter of its revenue in North America. Shares in Munich-based BMW have gained 23 percent this year. Paris- and Munich-based European Aeronautics, Defense and Space Co., the maker of Airbus jets, has called the euro’s rate to the dollar one of the company’s “biggest headaches.”

Munich-based Siemens AG, Europe’s largest engineering company, is also looking to benefit as it competes in 190 countries, according to Chief Financial Officer Joe Kaeser. “In general, a stronger greenback is good,” he said in a May 18 conference call.

Exchange Rate

“The super-competitive export machine of Germany is going to be compensated with a very, very weak exchange rate,” said Redeker. “You have a plus-plus situation on the profitability, especially for Siemens or the car industry. They will find a very profitable situation.”

Exports account for almost half of the German economy, making up 47 percent of gross domestic product in 2008, the latest year for which full data are available.

The biggest losers will be U.S. exporters that face a rising dollar, Barry Eichengreen, an economics professor at the University of California, Berkeley, said in a phone interview. “A weaker European economy is not good for us.”

Exports helped lead the U.S. economic recovery as the dollar declined against other major currencies last year, contributing 42 percent to the 5.6 percent growth rate in the fourth quarter of 2009, according to Commerce Department data. Since February, U.S. imports have been rising faster than exports.

Molotov Cocktails

While a cheaper euro may lure tourists to Europe, further boosting the continent, they may think twice about going to Greece, said Alan Ruskin, head of foreign-exchange strategy at RBS Securities in Stamford, Connecticut. He wrote in a note on May 13 that the euro could “easily head through parity” with the U.S. dollar.

“A weaker euro may help tourism in Greece. But on the other hand, a lot of people will be looking at the news and seeing Molotov cocktails flying through the air,” he said in a telephone interview. “That significant distraction could offset the benefit of a weaker currency.”

Concern by investors that the fiscal crisis will drag on and deficit-cutting in Europe’s biggest economies will undermine growth is keeping pressure on the euro. Another financial rescue package may be “inevitable,” former Bank of Bank of England official David Blanchflower said in a Bloomberg Television interview on May 18.

Deficit Cuts

Bringing down European budget deficits will take years. Greece’s government aims to lower the budget deficit from 13.6 percent of gross domestic product last year, more than four times the level allowed by the euro’s founding treaty. Spain, seeking to ward off Greek contagion, on May 12 unveiled the biggest budget cuts in at least 30 years to reduce the deficit to 6 percent of GDP in 2011 from 11.2 percent last year.

Germany, where Chancellor Angela Merkel is pressing other European countries to enforce fiscal discipline, plans to meet the deficit target of 3 percent by 2013 under a constitutional amendment that dictates cuts in government borrowing.

European policy makers are helping depress the euro with their strategy in the debt crisis, said Stephen Jen, a managing director at BlueGold Capital Management LLP in London.

“It’s hard to say what the sufficient conditions are for me to be bullish on the euro, but a necessary condition is that Greece and Portugal reschedule their debt,” he said. “The longer the Eurocrats resist this inevitable outcome, the less credible and consistent they appear.”
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Notapor admin » Jue May 20, 2010 6:25 am

Midiendo las consecuencias de las medidas Alemanas:

El costo de prestarse dinero para las corporaciones Europeas sube a sus niveles mas altos de las ultimas dos semanas y estan donde se encontraban antes de anunciado rescate de $1 trillon.

El yield (interes) que los inversionistas estan pidiendo al comprar los bonos corporativos ha subido 5 puntos basicos a 177 y es el nivel mas alto del anio.

Lo que mas se necesita en estos mometnos y seguridad y la habilidad de predecir lo que va a ocurrir y eso es lo que menos hay.

Se ve un congelamiento de la demanda por los activos con mas riesgo.

La emision de bonos en Europa se ha reducido a su minima expresion, inclusive a nivel mundial esta ha sido una semana muy floja.

Francia, Netherlands y Finland dijeron que no implementaran la prohibicion al naked short selling aislando a Alemania.

Una cosa que no necesita el mercado es interferencia politica y eso es lo que ha hecho Alemania.

Corporate Borrowing Costs Rise as German Ban Saps Confidence
By John Glover

May 20 (Bloomberg) -- Company borrowing costs jumped the most in two weeks after Germany’s short-selling ban, wiping out declines triggered by Europe’s $1 trillion aid package that was meant to halt contagion from the sovereign debt crisis.

The yield premium investors demand to hold investment-grade bonds rather than similar-maturity government debt rose 5 basis points to 177, the highest this year, and equal to the level before the emergency loan was agreed May 10, Bank of America Merrill Lynch index data show. Spreads on high-yield notes widened 16 basis points to 675, the most since March 2.

“What investors need most of all is security and predictability, but they are getting ever less,” said Ciaran O’Hagan, a strategist at Societe Generale SA in Paris. “Instead they are vilified as sharks, wolves or locusts, while governments rack up ever higher debt and contingent liabilities.”

Germany’s unilateral ban on so-called naked short-selling of some bank stock and the outlawing of speculation on government bonds using credit-default swaps has shaken investor confidence. German two-year notes declined today on concern that the lack of a united platform from European lawmakers will prompt investors to move assets to other markets.

Investment-grade spreads in Europe are within one basis point of where they were on May 7, gaining 8 basis points to 185 basis points, according to the Bank of America Merrill Lynch indexes. Junk bond spreads rose 34 basis points to 762 basis points, matching the May 7 level and the most since March 2.

Demand Freeze

“There’s been a freeze in demand for risk assets,” said Simon Ballard, a strategist at Royal Bank of Canada in London. “The credit market is like a rabbit caught in the headlights.”

Bond issuance in Europe is the slowest on record this week, with 520 million euros ($644 million) of notes sold, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Globally, $9.1 billion of corporate bonds have been sold, the slowest week of the year.

German Chancellor Angela Merkel’s unilateral effort to control what she called “destructive” markets came 10 days after voters angry at aid for Greece dealt her an electoral setback that cost her control of the federal upper house of Parliament. She’s now trying to win support for Germany’s share of the loan package, due to go to a parliamentary vote tomorrow.

France, the Netherlands and Finland said they have no plans to implement similar measures, leaving Merkel isolated.

“One thing the markets really don’t like is political interference, and that’s what the German announcement smacked of,” said Tim Barker, head of credit research at Aviva Investors in London. “Investors are trying to come to terms with political uncertainty.”

Short sellers borrow assets and sell them, betting the price will fall, seeking to buy them later and pocket the difference. In naked short-selling, traders never borrow the assets, so betting is unlimited.

High-yield, of junk, debt is ranked below Baa3 by Moody’s Investors Service and BBB- by Standard & Poor’s.
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Notapor admin » Jue May 20, 2010 6:27 am

La utilizacion de la capacidad instalada en US todavia esta en niveles bajos, hecho que no permitira que el Fed comienze a vender los activos alargo plazo que mantiene. Aun parece no es el momento. Tienen $1.1 trillones.
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Notapor admin » Jue May 20, 2010 6:33 am

Mal, mal, mal

-150
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Notapor admin » Jue May 20, 2010 6:35 am

Euro down 1.2324 y sigue bajando

Yields down 3.31%

-139

Oil down 68.29, au down 1,182.80 ha bajado mas de $10
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Notapor admin » Jue May 20, 2010 6:37 am

BAC dice que la crisis de Europa es tan grave como la crisis financiera.

Los economistas estan cambiando sus predicciones del proximo aumento de intereses en China debido a lo que ocurre en Europa, probablemente los suban en el segundo trimestre.
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Notapor admin » Jue May 20, 2010 6:38 am

EDC -4.88%

DRN +0.78%

FAS -4.45%

RTP -7.69%

Analistas dicen que el 40% de aumento de impuestos a las grandes mineras por parte del gobierno de Australia se contagie a los demas paises desde Canada hasta el Peru.
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Notapor admin » Jue May 20, 2010 6:39 am

ABK -2.83%
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Notapor admin » Jue May 20, 2010 6:41 am

$625 millones es la etiqueta de lo que costara la limpieza del derrame de petroleo, las cifras solamente para BP.
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Notapor admin » Jue May 20, 2010 6:43 am

El crecimiento de Japon ha mejorado pero la crisis en Europa esta perjudicando sus exportaciones.
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