Miercoles 09/08/11 Comercio Internacional Mayorista

[Ed_Alex]

"Por tanto, si no hay recesión, debemos estar cerca de los pisos alrededor de los 1,100 puntos. En algún momento de las próximas semanas deberíamos llegar a los pisos de corto plazo."

Debemos entrar más o menos por el 26 de agosto, fecha en la cual se rumorea que la FED anunciará el nuevo QE

[Victor VE]

los futuros del oro acaban de llegar a 1801

Deben de caer, no?

[Victor VE]

"Por tanto, si no hay recesión, debemos estar cerca de los pisos alrededor de los 1,100 puntos. En algún momento de las próximas semanas deberíamos llegar a los pisos de corto plazo."

Debemos entrar más o menos por el 26 de agosto, fecha en la cual se rumorea que la FED anunciará el nuevo QE

Eso nos daria medio año de aire y luego nuevamente nos vamos al diablo, correcto?

[Raiden]

DJIA Average Daily Change
WEDNESDAY, AUGUST 10, 2011 AT 10:38AM
"When in doubt blame it on the computers."

Nowadays, this seems to be the go to scapegoat for any market related problems. Over the last few days, numerous reports have said it is the computers to blame for the whipsaw trading the market has seen in recent weeks.

The explanation sounds plausible, but it is not necessarily borne out by the facts. Over the last 50 trading days, the average daily percentage move (up or down) in the DJIA has been 0.90%. Relative to history, the current level is far from the extreme readings we saw during the Financial crisis when the average daily change rose to 3.71%. Granted, the last few days have been extremely volatile, so if the recent trend continues, we will see the current 50-day average rise much higher.

One could still argue that computers were behind the big spike in volatility during the Financial Crisis, but what would explain the big spike in the 1930s, when the average daily change was also above 3%? Last we checked, there were no computers back then. While HFT and computer trading may be contributing to the recent surge in volatility, it isn't solely to blame. The reality is that when the market goes down, investors step to the sidelines, causing liquidity to dry up. In illiquid markets, price volatility rises.

[Ed_Alex]

Stoxx 50 -6%
Italy -6.4%
Germany -5.3%
France -5.3%
Spain -5%
Switzerland -4.1%
U.K. -3.2%.
French banks (ADRs still trading): Societe Generale -16%, BNP Paribas -10%, Credit Agricole -19%. European financial ETF: EUFN -7.3%.

[admin]

11:55 a.m. EDT 08/10/11Major Stock Indexes
  Last Change % Chg
DJIA 10855.41 -384.36 -3.42
Nasdaq 2414.25 -68.27 -2.75
S&P 500 1135.21 -37.32 -3.18
DJ Total Stock Market 11900.42 -375.04 -3.06

[Ed_Alex]

DJIA Average Daily Change
WEDNESDAY, AUGUST 10, 2011 AT 10:38AM
"When in doubt blame it on the computers."

Nowadays, this seems to be the go to scapegoat for any market related problems. Over the last few days, numerous reports have said it is the computers to blame for the whipsaw trading the market has seen in recent weeks.

The explanation sounds plausible, but it is not necessarily borne out by the facts. Over the last 50 trading days, the average daily percentage move (up or down) in the DJIA has been 0.90%. Relative to history, the current level is far from the extreme readings we saw during the Financial crisis when the average daily change rose to 3.71%. Granted, the last few days have been extremely volatile, so if the recent trend continues, we will see the current 50-day average rise much higher.

One could still argue that computers were behind the big spike in volatility during the Financial Crisis, but what would explain the big spike in the 1930s, when the average daily change was also above 3%? Last we checked, there were no computers back then. While HFT and computer trading may be contributing to the recent surge in volatility, it isn't solely to blame. The reality is that when the market goes down, investors step to the sidelines, causing liquidity to dry up. In illiquid markets, price volatility rises.

Buen dato Raiden ! deberíamos de comprar el Vixy, de alguna forma vas a ganar con la volatilidad

[Ed_Alex]

[quote="MArio TR"]Muchos lo catalogan de pesimista, talvez los que piensen eso eran muy optimistas

Nueva recesión es inevitable, advierte Roubini
En su columna del FT, el economista destaca que la debilidad de la economía puede llevar a una nueva recesión

No sólo Roubini, también están otros como Jim Rogers, Bill Gross, Faber, Kiyosaki y hasta Trump...!!!!

[jonibol]

Los escalones son:
1. Crecimiento
2. Desaceleración
3. Recesión
4. Depresión
El mercado parece que asume que estamos en el límite del segundo, pero con un 40%-50% de probabilidad de caer en la tercera grada. Un nuevo estímulo monetario será clave para mantenernos en el terreno de la desaceleración y ganar terreno. PERO, siempre hay un pero en la vida, el impacto del QE3 será limitado mientras persistan las presiones fiscales y sobre todo la intransigencia política. En blanco y negro, creo que el QE3 sólo hará más lenta la agonía.

[admin]

SPANISHAUGUST 10, 2011, 9:57 A.M. ET
El Tesoro de EE.UU. suspende la venta de acciones de GM

Por SHARON TERLEP

El gobierno del presidente de Estados Unidos, Barack Obama, suspendió sus planes de vender el resto de su participación en General Motors Co. debido a que las acciones del fabricante de autos han descendido este año en medio de la agitación que afecta a los mercados bursátiles, informaron el martes fuentes familiarizadas con la situación.

El Tesoro de Estados Unidos aspiraba a vender más de su participación de 26,5% en GM en agosto o septiembre. Pero durante meses, la acción de GM se ha mantenido por debajo de US$30 y la reciente volatilidad de Wall Street ha hecho que el futuro curso del mercado sea incierto.

Como resultado, es improbable que el Tesoro proceda con la venta de las acciones hasta fines de este año, por lo menos, indicaron las fuentes.

Funcionarios del Tesoro habían anticipado que el precio de la acción de GM aumentaría tras su oferta pública inicial en noviembre pasado a US$33 por acción e inicialmente esperaban vender su participación total hacia fines de año, según las fuentes.

Aun cuando el precio de GM no logró subir este año, los funcionarios del Tesoro mantenían la esperanza de organizar una oferta a fines del verano boreal.

A US$30 por acción, Estados Unidos perdería más de US$10.000 millones de su rescate por US$50.000 millones a GM.

En lo que va del año, la acción de GM ha caído 31%. Las acciones de su rival Ford Motor Co han perdido 35% en lo que va del año.

La acción de GM tendría que llegar a US$53 para que el gobierno de Estados Unidos alcance el punto de equilibrio de su rescate a la automotriz por US$50.000 millones.

[admin]

GS: habra un QE3

[admin]

-324

[Victor VE]

Johnson & Johnson: A Regal Dividend Stock Going Cheap

To dividend investors, big sell offs like the one we have witnessed over the last couple of weeks provide tremendous buying opportunities. That may sound like a big DUH, but as Warren Buffett says, "When the water goes out it's easy to see who was swimming naked." We believe Mr. Buffett meant that statement in the context of wrong bets related to debt. We have found, however, that "when the water goes out" in the stock market, it is much easier to see those companies that are not only fully clothed but are regally attired. Regally attired in the sense of having the rare qualities of unquestioned safety and consistent growth.

There are a handful of companies in the world that can qualify under our most stringent safety and growth standards, unfortunately, these companies are almost always fully priced. Everyone knows they are outstanding companies and everyone owns them. The only time we can buy these regal companies at bargain prices is when a big sell off in the market causes people to abandon stocks in general. When that happens, like over the last few days, the regal stocks get thrown out with the common folk.

Let us discuss one stock that we consider regal, Johnson & Johnson (JNJ). Here is a brief thought process of why we rate it so highly and why it is the kind of stock we buy every time the "water goes out."

1. Safety: JNJ is one of only four companies in the US that is still rated AAA. Yes you heard that right. S&P, in cutting the rating of US debt, went to great lengths to explain that JNJ's rating was not dependent on that of the US. JNJ is AAA on its own merits of financial strength, diversification of business lines, geographic diversification, growth, and sound leadership. JNJ has more cash than debt.
2. Growth: JNJ has grown its earnings by an average annual rate of 7.5% over the last 10 years. Its dividend has grown in the low double-digits%. With the uncertainties of the new health-care plan, we project that JNJ's dividend growth rate will slow to the 7.5%-8% level over the next 3-5 years. At that rate, JNJ's dividend will double in about 10 years.
3. Dividends: JNJ's current dividend yield is 3.7%. That is nearly 1.3% more than the yield on a 10-year US Treasury bond. The company has paid a dividend since 1944 and has raised its dividend every year for the last 48 years.
4. Valuation: Our proprietary Dividend Valuation Model is estimating that JNJ is just over 30% undervalued.
5. Timing: We don't try to time the market, but the manner in which stocks have fallen in recent days usually takes time to calm down. We think JNJ is a good value at current prices, but with a bit of patience one might be able to buy it a bit cheaper over the next few weeks.



Buen artículo.

[admin]

Acabo de vender PAAS, SLW, NG y EGO, que bajen para volver a comprar.

[Ed_Alex]

Acabo de vender PAAS, SLW, NG y EGO, que bajen para volver a comprar.

admin: sabes en que parte salió lo del nuevo QE?, gracias !