Viernes 26/08/11 No esperen mucho de Bernanke

[admin]

El euro pasa a la baja 1.4356

-93.55

[admin]

Bernanke a los mercados: sigan en sintonia

Bernanke to Markets: Stay Tuned

By JON HILSENRATH
Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke's main message in his much-awaited Jackson Hole speech is essentially, "Stay Tuned."

In light of the slow economy, investors have been clamoring for the Fed to renew its quantitative-easing program, in which it buys government bonds to give markets a lift. Mr. Bernanke doesn't even discuss it, or any of his other easing options, in the Jackson Hole speech, the text of which was released to reporters before he read it. (Sometimes what you don't say matters more than what you do say.)

Chairman of the US Federal Reserve Ben Bernanke testifying before a House committee in July in Washington.
.He does note that Fed policy makers will be discussing their options at a September policy meeting which has been expanded to two days instead of one to explore whether the Fed should do more.

"The committee will continue to assess the economic outlook in light of incoming information and is prepared to employ its tools as appropriate to promote a stronger economic recovery in a context of price stability," he says.

Mr. Bernanke doesn't want to get ahead of his colleagues, and he doesn't want to make promises on what the Fed will do next. He has other options besides renewing the securities-purchase program—including altering the composition of securities held by the central bank and lowering the interest rate it pays to banks that leave cash with it. Still, it is worth remembering, when the Fed has said it is prepared to act during this long-running economic crisis, it generally has acted.

The Fed chairman also pointedly observes that there are government policies besides monetary policy that could help. He calls for "good, proactive housing policy." He calls for putting U.S. fiscal policy "on a sustainable path" that results in debt relative to GDP that is "at least stable, or preferably, declining over time." But he couples that with a warning not to "disregard the fragility of the current economic recovery" and to avoid the "creation of fiscal headwinds for the current recovery."

He pleads for "a better process for making fiscal decisions." The summer-time squabble over the debt ceiling, he says, "disrupted financial markets and probably the economy as well, and similar events in the future could, over time, seriously jeopardize the willingness of investors around the world to hold U.S. financial assets or to make direct investments in job-creating U.S. businesses."

And, with several Europeans in his audience, he pointedly observes: "I have confidence that our European colleagues fully appreciate what is at stake in the difficult issues they are now confronting and that, over time, they will take all necessary and appropriate steps to address those issues effectively and comprehensively."

The Bernanke speech echoes, and elaborates a bit, on the Federal Open Market Committee's August statement.

It acknowledges the recovery is worse than the Fed hoped: "It is clear that the recovery from the crisis has been much less robust than we had hoped. Persistent factors are at work holding back the recovery, driven by the housing crash and the financial bust. For example, families with mortgage debt bigger than the value of their homes face unusual financial hardship which is also hurting banks," he says.

It emphasizes that the Fed has marked down its forecast for the rest of the year, but isn't projecting renewed recession: "Although we expect a moderate recovery to continue and indeed to strengthen over time, the Committee marked down its outlook for the likely pace of growth in coming quarters." Growth in the second half—a measly 0.7% at an annual rate, according to the latest revisions—"looks likely to improve," he says.

It underscores the Fed's focus on inflation, as usual, but predicts that it will settle in around the Fed's objective of 2%.

Mr. Bernanke says he remains confident about the long-term future of the U.S. economy, the nominal topic of the conference at Jackson Hole, but he rang the alarm bell about the large number of Americans who have been out of work for six months, or a year or more—and, without specifics, called for policies targeted at them.

"Policies that promote a stronger recovery in the near term may serve longer-run objectives as well," he says. "Minimizing the duration of unemployment supports a healthy economy by avoiding some of the erosion of skills and loss of attachment to the labor force that is often associated with unemployment." This, he says, "adds urgency" to the need to bolster the recovery and improve employment.

Write to Jon Hilsenrath at jon.hilsenrath@wsj.com

[jonibol]

Parece que el mercado lo está digieriendo relativamente bien.

[admin]

-74.26

[admin]

Irene amenazando la costa de US, parece que va a llegar fuerte a NY

[jonibol]

El huracán hará cerrar el Nyse?

[admin]

11:02 a.m. EDT 08/26/11Major Stock Indexes
  Last Change % Chg
DJIA 11155.50 5.68 0.05
Nasdaq 2446.44 26.81 1.11
S&P 500 1162.18 2.91 0.25
DJ Total Stock Market 12142.75 40.62 0.34
Russell 2000 680.94 6.52 0.97
Global Dow 1827.09 -1.00 -0.05
Japan: Nikkei Average* 8797.78 25.42 0.29
Stoxx Europe 600 224.80 -2.27 -1.00

[admin]

Optimismo

[admin]

DJIA 11177.07 27.25 0.24
Nasdaq 2453.31 33.68 1.39
S&P 500 1164.78 5.51 0.48
DJ Total Stock Market 12177.99 75.86 0.63
Russell 2000 680.00 5.58 0.83
Global Dow 1830.54 2.45 0.13

[admin]

+77

[admin]

El huracán hará cerrar el Nyse?

Abriran si todos los traders estan presentes. Ojala estemos todos bien.

[Ed_Alex]

Continuando con el grafico que subi ayer, con noticias o sin noticias solo usando AT... se continuo la caida en 3 ondas hasta el objetivo 1138 e inicio un rebote, ahora podria desarrollar 5 ondas al alza, para completar desde el 22 de agosto una estructura 5-3-5.

Este 5-3-5 puede ser un ABC o un 12345 aun esta por ver

Como varios en el foro han mencionado, yo tambien proyecto que el S&P va a testear los minimos anteriores cerca a los 1100 puntos (es probable que pierda ese nivel), del conteo que puse hace semanas en el tema de AT estamos en una onda 4 ahora ya mas desarrollada parece estar formando un bear flag (en lineas rojas) o si la situacion se deteriora el fin de semana un triangulo simetrico (con linea roja punteada) o un doble techo en 1208

De los movimientos anteriores podemos poner como objetivo de subida el rango 1200-1208 y luego 1225, luego debe iniciar una onda 5 a la baja.

Y como mencione hace semanas solo si el S&P supera los 1230 puntos (es decir si sale por arriba de su bear flag) los bulls tienen la oportunidad de seguir alcistas.

Mario entonces se viene una caída a eso de 1100 y luego un buen rebote?

[OrlandoR]

Continuando con el grafico que subi ayer, con noticias o sin noticias solo usando AT... se continuo la caida en 3 ondas hasta el objetivo 1138 e inicio un rebote, ahora podria desarrollar 5 ondas al alza, para completar desde el 22 de agosto una estructura 5-3-5.

Este 5-3-5 puede ser un ABC o un 12345 aun esta por ver

Como varios en el foro han mencionado, yo tambien proyecto que el S&P va a testear los minimos anteriores cerca a los 1100 puntos (es probable que pierda ese nivel), del conteo que puse hace semanas en el tema de AT estamos en una onda 4 ahora ya mas desarrollada parece estar formando un bear flag (en lineas rojas) o si la situacion se deteriora el fin de semana un triangulo simetrico (con linea roja punteada) o un doble techo en 1208

De los movimientos anteriores podemos poner como objetivo de subida el rango 1200-1208 y luego 1225, luego debe iniciar una onda 5 a la baja.

Y como mencione hace semanas solo si el S&P supera los 1230 puntos (es decir si sale por arriba de su bear flag) los bulls tienen la oportunidad de seguir alcistas.

Mario entonces se viene una caída a eso de 1100 y luego un buen rebote?

Yo entendí que estamos en un buen rebote y luego viene la caída......

O si la situación se deteriora el fin de semana, este rebote sera pequeño

[Ed_Alex]

Aun falta un tramo a la baja antes de un buen rebote, esa es mi proyeccion, los demas que hacen AT que proyeccion tiene? si las compartimos seria mejor.

a propósito el Oro y la plata parece que tocaron piso, ya no bajan, más bien estan retomando precios de a pocos.

[Ed_Alex]

Aun falta un tramo a la baja antes de un buen rebote, esa es mi proyeccion, los demas que hacen AT que proyeccion tiene? si las compartimos seria mejor.

a propósito el Oro y la plata parece que tocaron piso, ya no bajan, más bien estan retomando precios de a pocos.

Estoy pensando seriamente pasar mis GLD a BVN, debe de venir con resultados espectaculares con los nuevos precios del Oro, que opinan?