por admin » Mar Oct 18, 2011 6:13 am
El rating de credito Frances bajo presion
Moody's dijo que el rating de Francia estaba tambien bajo presion, el gobierno Frances admitio que no podra crecer de acuerdo a lo anticipado. Como Francia puede ayudar a rescatar a los demas paises bajo su situacion actual. (Queda Alemania sola)
BUSINESSOCTOBER 18, 2011, 8:28 A.M. ET
France's Credit Rating Under Pressure
By WILLIAM HOROBIN And MARK BROWN
PARIS—France's ability to support troubled euro zone countries was challenged Tuesday as the government acknowledged it is unlikely to meet its growth forecast next year and Moody's Investors Service said the stable outlook on its prized triple-A credit rating was under pressure.
President Nicolas Sarkozy has pledged to help resolve the debt crisis. Moody's warned France may face challenges in the months ahead, such as the possible need to support other European sovereigns or its own banks.
.As the euro area's second biggest economy, France is a key pillar in bailing out struggling members of the currency bloc. If the French economy and its financial standing are weakened significantly it could threaten its ability to be a central force in delivering on commitments to existing bailout facilities for others, just as France and Germany are scrambling to finalize a comprehensive plan to address the nearly two-year old euro zone sovereign debt crisis.
In its annual credit report on France, issued late Monday, Moody's said that over the next three months it will "monitor and assess the outlook in terms of the government's progress in implementing necessary economic and fiscal reforms, while taking into account any potential adverse economic or financial-market developments."
Moody's said the country's triple-A rating reflects its economic strength, the "robustness of its institutions" and the government's very high financial strength. However, the ratings agency said the latter has weakened, as it has in other parts of the euro zone, because of the global financial and economic crisis. Also, it said France may face a number of challenges in the coming months such as the possible need to support other European nations or its own banking system.
The ratings agency said measures of France's debt as well as "the potential for further contingent liabilities to emerge are exerting pressure on the stable outlook of the government's (triple-A) debt rating."
Alexander Kockerbeck, senior credit officer and lead analyst for France at Moody's, said the agency was "simply monitoring an evolving situation and will assess the stable outlook in light of what we see."
France is the second largest contributor after Germany to the euro zone's bailout fund for troubled countries, the European Financial Stability Facility. Earlier this month, the French parliament agreed to raise the sovereign guarantees it pledges to the facility to €159 billion, equivalent to roughly 8% of France's GDP, in order to give the EFSF €440 billion of spending power. Euro zone governments are working on a way of maximizing the impact of the €440 billion at their disposal, but have ruled out governments contributing more in funds or guarantees.
Moody's comments helped spark a rally in benchmark German sovereign bonds and kicked the difference between 10-year German and 10-year French bonds out to a fresh euro-era high.
Defending the triple-A rating and keeping France's public finances in check will be a tough challenge for President Nicolas Sarkozy. Presidential elections are less than six months away and Mr. Sarkozy will want to avoid hoisting painful spending cuts on an electorate that already dislikes him, according to surveys, and is suffering from an unemployment rate of over 9%.
The government already unveiled an austerity package at the end of August, after economic growth stalled in the second quarter and jitters about France's rating and the exposure of the French banks to Greece and other troubled euro zone countries fueled financial market turmoil. The government cut its growth forecast for this year and next to 1.75%.
Speaking Tuesday on French television, French finance minister François Baroin conceded that hitting that forecast will be tough but said the government will do what is necessary to safeguard its credit rating, suggesting further austerity may be in the pipeline.
"The [gross domestic product] growth forecast for 2012 is fixed at 1.75%. It is certainly very high, and probably too high compared to changes in economic activity," Mr. Baroin said. "We need to keep cool heads and adapt to the economic situation. We will be there to defend the triple-A."
Analysts said the warning from Moody's raises the odds of a change in the outlook on France's credit rating. Gary Jenkins, fixed income strategist at Evolution Securities in London, said it is likely there will be an outlook change "as a minimum" in early 2012.
Richard McGuire, senior fixed income strategist at Rabobank in London said there is a clear risk Moody's will adjust its stable rating and may even be superseded by one of its peers.
The difference between French 10-year sovereign bond yields and benchmark German bonds hit fresh highs in early trade Tuesday, breaking through the symbolic 1 percentage point level to reach 1.05 percentage points. France's five-year credit default swap spread was at 1.94 percentage points, which means it costs an average of $194,000 a year to insure $10 million of debt issued by the country. The move was 0.10 points wider on the day. The sovereign CDS contract for France is widely traded.
French banking shares were also down, with BNP Paribas down 6.1%, Société Générale 5.5% off, and Crédit Agricole trading 4.6% lower in recent trade. France's CAC-40 was trading 1.7% lower at 3113.64.
France has committed to bring its deficit down from a forecast 5.7% of GDP this year to 4.5% next year before meeting the 3% limit stipulated by EU treaties in 2013.
"If needed we will take necessary measures to cut spending and meet these objectives," Mr. Baroin said. "It's not just for the pleasure of having a good rating, it's a necessary condition to protect our social model and tax payer money to avoid interest payments on debt exploding